Stats

Friday, October 31, 2014

UVA Preview

Not really going to be a post this week.  Thats what you guys get when I'm out of town all week on business and then out of town at a wedding on the weekend.  I won't even get to watch most of the game.  Hate fall weddings.  Seriously, who does this?

Anyway, great win last week.  They gave it to us as much as we took it (what was it, six turnovers?).  And even with all the turnovers, we still gave up 28 points and rarely got stops.  The game didn't have that many possessions.  You could argue we forced some of the fumbles, but, really, Pitt helped us out.  Shout out to DJ White I think for tracking down Connors at the goal line.  That play was huge.  And a lesson why you never give up on a play.  The offense played great as usual.

This week should be more fun.  Mike London somehow has created a team that is great at blocking and tackling and still bad.  He is truly a coaching phenomenon.  We should win, at home, but you know, when your defense can't stop anybody...

Another week of fun in the ACC, spinning the wheel of destiny.  We need Pitt to beat Duke for our ACC title hopes.  I think we need to run the table and finish 6-2.  5-3 might be enough but we need Duke to lose a bunch for that to happen.  And sadly Duke's schedule is... manageable.  They could win them all or they could lose any of them.  So, they are an ACC Coastal team basically.

Should be fun.  Let's go Jackets!

Friday, October 24, 2014

 Well, that was awful.  To preserve my own sanity, I did not review the game tape.  Obviously, the game went as predicted.  We couldn’t stop them, they couldn’t stop us, they won because they had the last possession.  

A few general thoughts.  I really disagreed with our defensive strategy from a game management point of view.  I thought it was far too conservative, and continued to be conservative a long time after it became apparent that it wasn’t working.  UNC had little trouble settling into a rhythm, taking what were giving them, and marching down the field for touchdowns.  Eventually, we started blitzing and taking chances, but it was too little too late.  

We knew going into the game that UNC had a good offense and we had a very bad defense, but I would have liked to have seen more of a sense of urgency, earlier, from the defensive coaching staff.  Looked to me like we were basically content to stick with the gameplan and see if maybe it would start working.  

Offensively its hard to complain too much, but the false start that cost us a TD (and arguably ended up costing us the game) was a silly mistake.  Especially since the O-Lineman who jumped was on the backside of a rocket toss.  What exactly was he in a hurry to go do?  He probably could stay in his stance the entire play and it wouldn’t matter.  

Unfortunately, I think we may have to get used to playing games like this.  With our defense playing as poorly as it is, I don’t see a comfortable win left on the schedule.  We will need the offense to play great and hope we cause some turnovers, pretty much every game.  When we were 5-0 I thought my 7-5 prediction may have sold us short, but its looking more and more like we might end up 7-5, or maybe 8-4, every game.  

Our offense is now ranked #1 by Football Outsiders.  Yes, that is right, the best offense in the country, allegedly.  Our defense is ranked #100. I like this site because it ranks based upon the efficiency of drives - nothing else.  And it adjusts for quality of opponent.  And ignores garbage time.  So it really does a good job of isolating the performance of each unit and what each accomplishes when the game is in doubt.  If you are curious, Pitt’s offense ranks 15th and its defense ranks 71st.  

Now that we are getting to the point in the season where there is reasonably accurate data (ie we have enough games to get something of a decent sample size) I thought I’d do a comparison of our units, and who we played, versus Pitts units and who they’ve played.  All rankings are taken from Football Outsiders FEI rankings.  

Let’s start with the bad news.  Our defense.  Here is what we have done this year (FBS opponents only)


Opponent
           Offense Rank
               Defense Points Allowed Per Possession
Tulane
                        92
                          21 points 11 possessions
Ga. Southern
                        44
                          38 points 10 possessions
Virginia Tech
                        88
                          24 points 12 possessions
Miami
                        13
                           17 points 7 possessions
Duke
                        57
                           31 points 9 possessions
UNC
                        26
                          48 points 11 possessions

:


So on the year we have allowed 179 points on 60 possessions, or almost exactly 3 points per possession.  Which is awful.  And we haven’t exactly played murderer’s row.  Strangely we held Miami, the best offense we have played, to only 2.4 points per possession.  But we allowed Duke UNC and Ga Southern to put up tremendous numbers, and gave the very poor offenses of VT and Tulane decent production.  

Here is how Pitt’s offense compares to that.  Pitt has been a weird offense this year, as they rank highly (15th nationally according to Football Outsiders) despite modest points per possession numbers.  My guess is there are two reasons of that.  First they have played some pretty good defenses.  And second, their offense tends to move the ball even when they don’t score.  Another reason I like Football Outsiders calculations is they account for this factor.  Driving 30 yards is very different from going three and out, even if both drives end in punts.  The 30 yard drive helps flip the field, so your defense has better field position, and it also probably gives the defense more of a rest.  Both are important if you care about winning games.  That type of drive isn’t a total failure and the stats really should account for that and make a distinction.  

Anyway, here are Pitt’s numbers for their offense (excluding FIU because for some reason espn.com is not displaying the play by play for that game):


Opponent
        Defense Rank
              Offense Points Scored Per Possession
Boston College
                      22
                           30 points, 12 possessions
Iowa
                      17 
                           20 points, 9 possessions
Akron
                      64
                           10 points, 12 possessions
UVA
                      13
                           19 points, 12 possessions
Virginia Tech
                       1
                           21 points, 12 possessions



100 points on 57 possessions is not the most impressive stat line in history, but they have played four defenses ranked in the top 22 nationally.  Only Akron was not a good defense, and weirdly, that was Pitt’s worst game offensively.  But they have consistently put up respectable numbers against very quality defenses.   

So, odds are, Pitt will be able to score against us.   Since we are the worst defense they have played in some time.  Hopefully we can find a way to get some stops.  We’ll see.  

Now let’s move to the good news.  Our offense (ahem, the best in all the land):


Opponent
          Defense Rank
                 Offense Points Scored Per Possession
Tulane 
                   59   
                           31 points 10 possessions
Ga. Southern
                   83 
                           42 points 11 possessions
Virginia Tech
                    1
                           20 points 11 possessions
Miami
                   62
                           28 points 8 possessions
Duke
                    7        
                           25 points 10 possessions
UNC
                    85
                           43 points 10 possessions


189 points on 60 possessions is excellent offense.  We haven’t exactly played the toughest schedule, but VT and especially Duke are allegedly better defenses than most people probably think.  At any rate, the offensive numbers are impressive, as everybody probably knows already.  We move the ball, rarely go three and out, eat a lot of clock and score a lot of points.  

Also on the plus side, Pitt’s defense isn’t terribly good:


Opponent
               Offense Rank                      
Defense Points Allowed Per Possession
Boston College
                    36
20 points, 13 possesions
Iowa
                    69
24 points, 8 possessions
Akron
                    113
21 points, 12 possessions
UVA 
                     37
17 points, 10 possessions
Virginia Tech
                     88
16 points, 14 possessions


98 points on 57 possessions is actually not a bad stat line, but only Boston College and Virginia are reasonably good offenses in this list.  In keeping with Pitt’s reputation, their defense performed reasonably well against the best offenses it faced, and poorly against some of the others (Iowa).  Pitt is annually one of the hardest teams to predict.  Which makes this game interesting.  Because on paper this looks easy.  Both teams score a bunch.  Knowing Pitt, they’ll find a way to stop us and not score very much.  We’ll see.  I expect a low possession game but both team scoring at will.  Something like 38 to 35.  Turnovers decide the outcome, as is normal for us.  

Not that it matters, because I think Pitt would be able to score anyway, but they have an excellent running back who is hard to tackle, and one of the best WR’s in the country.  I’m not sure about their O line or their QB, but they have the skill position talent to cause us trouble.  Not that it takes much.  


Hopefully, we can execute, play smart, force turnovers, limit penalties etc and come out with a win.  But as I expect every game to be from here on out, it should be a wild ride, and an entertaining game.  As always, Go Jackets!

Friday, October 17, 2014

UNC Preview

Well, that was frustrating.  Seems like GT is really good at doing that.  Getting into the rankings and finally getting some respect and throwing it away.  

Losing to Duke is no longer the embarrassment it once was.  Not by a long shot.  But, still, at home against a team who doesn't really out talent us, you hate to throw a game away with turnovers and penalties.  Particularly relatively unforced turnovers (as both interceptions were) and the 4th and 4 offsides.  Just inexcusable for a guy who isn't even rushing the punter to line up offsides on a punt.  And surrender a first down.  

There were numerous sloppy mental mistakes that really hurt, and honestly I don't feel like breaking them down one by one.  Clearly you can't expect to play that way and beat a pretty good team. 

Also troubling however was the fact that Duke tackled much better than we did.  Some of that is technique, some of it may have been effort, some of it is taking better angles and being in better position.  Most of that is coaching related.  As I said, I just don't think Duke has better talent than we do.  We rarely broke a tackle last Saturday and we rarely seemed to get their ballcarrier down with the first guy.  Thats not good football.  We haven't been a particularly good tackling team all year, which is a concern, but Saturday might have been the worst.  And I have no explanation for why we couldn't break any tackles.  

Duke deserves some credit.  Probably more than I've given them so far.  I still wonder if they haven't benefitted from luck over the past 10 games or so, dating back to last season.  They seem to have been on the right side of the bounces for a few games and I wonder if that will last.  But even so it may be time to admit they are better than I thought they were.  We'll see as the season progresses.  I still think they may lose 3 or 4 games, and frankly, its probably better for us to have beaten Miami and VT and lost to Duke, than to be 2-1 but have a loss to VT or Miami.  

But enough about the Duke game.  I don't think it needs to be analyzed much.  The bottom line is you can make that many self inflicted mistakes and win unless you are playing somebody much worse than you.  

So we arrive at the midpoint of the season 5-1.  Most GT fans probably would have taken that and been happy at this point, if we are being honest.  All of our goals are still within reach, up to and including the national title if you are so inclined to fantasize.  I think we have somewhere between a 0% and a 1% chance at that (closer to zero?) but technically, I think a 12-1 ACC champ who just beat Clemson, UGA and FSU would get in to the playoff.  Obviously, we can still win the ACC and beat UGA, although beating UGA is looking less and less likely with each game.  At present Massey gives us a 16% chance and projects a 14 point loss.  Not terrible, but not very good.  Sadly I think thats right, and the game probably looks a lot like 2011.  We have a good offense, good enough to score and keep it close for a while, but UGA's defense is better than last year.  Good enough to slow us down some, and I wonder if our defense will get any stops.  

Which obviously is our main problem.  The defense just has to get more stops.  As the Duke game showed, if we don't force turnovers, we just aren't very good.  If you follow the stats that track efficiency (which is better for us since our games tend to have fewer possessions than most and thus totals stats are misleading), our defense may be the worst we've had under CPJ.  At present it ranks as low as 80th.  

On the plus side, UNC's defense ranks around 100th by the same metrics, so this game won't feature much defense.  however, our offense ranks as high as top 10 nationally, depending on where you look, and UNC's is well above average (in the 30's generally) so this game should be high scoring.  Nothing terribly insightful there.  Sadly, even though I think we are the better team, our defense is bad enough and their offense good enough that they could realistically score nearly every drive.  Meaning, turnovers will likely decide the outcome again.  This is the problem when your defense is as bad as ours.  Nothing else really matters.  When you can't reliably stop anybody, every game is going to be close (or else you are getting blown out) and turnovers tend to decide things.  We were +2 against VT and Miami and -3 against Duke.  Win, Win, Loss.  Against UNC, hopefully, if the margin is zero, we should win, but it'll be in doubt.  

We are in for a wild ride the rest of the way.  The defense just doesn't appear to have any strengths.  We don't stop the run well, we don't rush the passer, we aren't great in pass coverage, we don't tackle well in space, we aren't powerful up front.  We are left to the mercy of the play calls.  If Roof can dial up a series of calls that matchup well with what they are doing, AND we tackle well, then maybe we get a stop.  But that is asking a lot.  Good defenses are able to get good results with conservative base defenses fairly often.  They don't have to gamble as much.  And pretty much all good defenses have an area or areas of strength.  Maybe its a good pass rushing D-Line who can generate pressure so you don't have to blitz and can drop into coverage.  Maybe its two great cornerbacks who can play man coverage and let the safeties play more run support.  Etc.  

We don't appear to have an area of strength.  So its hard to blame Roof for his scheme and play calling.  There's no area he can rely upon.  You can sometimes protect a poor pass rushing D Line with a blitz.  You can protect a bad corner with safety help.  But you can't protect everyone.  We can't blitz, and give the corner safety help.  So we have to defend probabilities and hope the offense doesn't call the right type of play.  

Given that, it isn't surprising that we rely upon turnovers.  Its a lot easier to force a turnover on 1 play than to get a stop on 3 straight plays, with the above constraints.  We should probably gamble even more than we are and focus on attacking the ball, trying to cause fumbles or baiting the QB and gambling on INTs.  Its not like we get many stops as is.  

But the offense is just going to have to play well for us to win.  Thats true for most every game we have left.  I don't see a big change coming on defense anytime this year, so we just have to score most every time we have the ball.  Like we did against Miami.  Fortunately, UNC's defense looks to be truly awful.  So we should be able to score.  I hope thats enough to get back on track and get to 6-1.  

As always, Go Jackets!  

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Duke Preview

Well that was a thoroughly satisfying game.  I don't think its really sunk in for me yet that we beat both Virginia Tech and Miami.  I had really gotten tired of losing to both, especially in the incredibly heartbreaking ways we kept doing it.  2012 was comically bad for both games, but there were others.  Anyway, really an impressive performance, especially offensively.  Crisp, clean execution, and Justin Thomas continues to impress.  We didn't ask him to throw much, but when needed, he mostly delivered, including a very nice pass on the 3rd and 15 or so in the 4th quarter.  He also did not run the ball much, but I think that was by design from Miami's scheme.  The secret is out - Justin Thomas is our best runner.  They focused on him and he calmly directed the ball to the right read.  

There were some bad plays of course, including a poor throw on 3rd and 5 to a fairly wide open Smelter on an out route.  This play immediately preceded the fake punt (which was a great call by the way).  But 28 points on essentially 8 possessions is pretty good offense.  

In related news, I'm starting to think maybe we've got the old CPJ back.  Not the guy who punted on 4th and 1 from midfield leading Miami 36-29 in 2012.  He faked a punt at a crucial juncture, I think primarily to make sure Miami didn't get the ball back again in the first half, so we'd have a chance to drive for the lead to open the 3rd quarter.  He went for it on 4th and 2 from inside Miami's 10 yard line in the 4th quarter, leading 21-17.  That was of course the touchdown, and also a great call.  But CPJ didn't want to leave Miami within 1 possession.  That was a gamble.  I think I like the gambling, aggressive CPJ more than the sometimes careful guy we've seen the past couple of years.  Maybe I'm making that up, but it felt to me he lost some of his aggression for a while.  

I'm still concerned about the defense.  Specifically, whether we can get stops without turnovers.  We are tied for next to last in the country at fewest punts forced per game.  Turnovers are nice, but they tend to be unreliable and inconsistent.  Here, Miami only had the ball 7 times, and they scored 17 points with 2 red zone turnovers.  Easily could have been 31 points on 7 possessions, which would have been atrocious defense, and also might have meant we lost.  

The defense deserves some credit for getting the turnovers, but you can also argue Miami's QB Kaaya just made some poor decisions.  I'd also argue that Miami's play caller made some poor decisions.  I'm not sure why Duke Johnson didn't get the ball more.  They seemed to think, if we stopped him once, they had to throw a couple times.  If I'm Miami, I might have run him 3 times in a row no matter what happens on first down.  Three Duke Johnson runs against our defense are going to total more than 10 yards most of the time, at least I would think.  Especially down in the red zone, I think I would have kept the ball on the ground.  

I do like the way Roof has been managing games and making adjustments.  I like some of our defensive players, but overall I don't think our talent scares anybody.  So Roof has to take some chances and play the percentages.  And I think he's done a good job with that so far.  But going forward, our inability to get stops means we aren't going to win very many games easily.  As we've already seen, even with Tulane and Ga. Southern, when the other team can score, the game tends to stay interesting.  

Here is a fun stat from this game though - and I bring it up because every game the commentators can't stop talking about how important it is for Georgia Tech's offense to stay "on schedule", and how if you can get us into 2nd and 3rd and long, you can stop us.  This stuff really is nonsense.  Our offense is better at 3rd and short than most offenses, but believe it or not, we are actually above average (usually) at 3rd and long.  3rd and long is how you stop any offense.  This talking point is tired and really incorrect.  Maybe I'll do a formal chart for the blog soon so you guys can see what I mean.  

Anyway, for this game, here is a list of Miami's third downs:

3rd down and 8 - failed conversion - punt
3rd down and 2 - failed conversion - convert on 4th down.
3rd down and 7 - failed conversion - FG
3rd down and 6 - failed conversion - punt
3rd down and 2 - conversion

And here is GT:

3rd down and 1 - convert
3rd down and 1 - convert
3rd down and 5 - failed conversion - punt
3rd down and 6 - conversion pass interference
3rd down and 5 - failed conversion, fake punt
3rd down and 5 - convert
3rd down and 16 - failed conversion
3rd down and 7 - conversion
3rd down and 4 - conversion
3rd down and 2 - conversion
3rd down and 16 - conversion
3rd down and 4 - failed conversion - convert 4th down
3rd down and 3 - convert
3rd down and 2 - convert
3rd down and 8 - failed conversion punt.


So Miami's big bad passing offense went 0 for 3 on 3rd down and 6 or longer.  Meanwhile, GT's offense that "has to stay on schedule" went 3 for 5 on 3rd and 6 or longer, including a conversion on 3rd and 16.  

The bottom line is that nobody converts 3rd and long much, but really, our offense isn't bad at it.  Getting us in 3rd and long isn't some weakness or achilles heel.  At least, not anymore than it is for NC State, Boston College, Miami, Texas, Stanford or pretty much whoever you want to talk about.  

Anyway, overall I thought a really good game and a satisfying win.  I still think we can play better, but this group plays as a team and seems to have what it takes to make plays in the clutch.


On to Duke.  I was terrified about this game.  Everything was set up perfectly for a big let down.  We just got ranked.  We are 5-0.  We are getting some respect.  Fresh off two huge wins against teams that have beaten us every year that every player on the current roster has been here.  We are back at home, and are favored, against a team we beat easily last year.  

I know, I know, they are the reigning Coastal division champs and they aren't a pushover anymore.  But, I think there is still the "it's Duke" factor.  

So, had we been flat, Duke really is pretty good.  I would have expected them to score and maybe score a lot.  Not really sure what to make of their defense, but playing flat usually means poor blocking, which can mean poor offense against most anybody (see Middle Tenn. State 2012, Ga. Southern 2nd half this year).  And of course we could always have a couple turnovers as well.  A flat performance here would probably mean a loss.

So why did I say I WAS terrified?  

Anybody seen the press conferences this week?  

Cutcliffe made some... what I would call shocking comments.  I mean it was mostly coach speak, the usual complimentary stuff.  But he also took a couple shots to the effect of "I don't know why recruits would go play in that offense if they want to go pro", and similarly why defenders would want to go there.  He did the Frank Beamer thing where he claims we "chop block" when he knows full well the difference in a cut block and a chop block.  And when asked how GT always seems to have a stud WR, he scoffed at the notion that Smelter is in the same category as Thomas or Calvin.  

In fairness, Smelter probably isn't (who is?) but that still smacks of taking a direct shot at a current student-athlete.  Something I'm not sure I've ever heard a coach do.  

When asked about these comments, Coach Johnson was pretty short but took the rather obvious argument - basically saying maybe they should worry about who they are (or aren't) putting in the NFL from their scheme and leave us alone.  Which makes sense, given that Coach Johnson is 6-0 against Duke and has put considerably more players in the NFL than Cutcliffe has.  

Boy that was an odd move from Cutcliffe.  

Well, I could analyze how the teams matchup but I think the bottom line is this - we have more talent, more depth, we are at home, and NOW... I think we are focused.  Thanks Cutcliffe!  I have a sneaking suspicion that GT is a very solid bet this weekend.  The spread is about 5, and I think we might just have a chip on our shoulder this week.  

The matchups are interesting.  I don't think Duke's defense is very good, but they have put up decent stats although mostly against poor opposition.  They aren't a very good rush defense, although we've seen in the past that doesn't necessarily mean much with us.  Our rushing attack is defended more like a passing attack than a traditional running attack - meaning sometimes we do very well against good rushing defenses and poorly against bad ones.  Duke's offense should be good, led by a good QB, but their passing hasn't been as sharp as last year.  And again, they've played nobodies, except for Miami.  They have run the ball better, but I think our defense is better against the run than the pass (at least when not facing a huge O-Line and Duke Johnson).  In other words I'm more afraid of Duke's passing attack than their rushing attack.  So I'm not sure what to make of their lackluster passing so far (compared to what they did last year).  

I do think we'll be able to score and score a lot.  I just don't think Duke has the athletes on defense to stop us.  And as a general rule, if you don't out-talent us, you don't have a chance to stop this offense.  Especially true if we are up for the game, which we should be now.

That last sentence is really what I think controls everything.  I like GT big.  42-21 or 38-17.  Something like that.  Don't think it'll be all that close.  

As always, Go Jackets!

Friday, October 3, 2014

Miami Preview

Man it sure felt good to do to VT what they usually do to us, didn't it?  Make plays down the stretch (really, in all phases) and pull out a close win that really could have gone either way.  I think its clear that VT is at least a pretty good team, but I think its equally clear that both teams played poorly last Saturday.  A lot of unforced errors.  Some errors were forced to varying degrees but both teams have a lot to clean up.

Nevertheless, it was still a quality road win against one of our nemeses.  Let's start with the positives.  I really liked the way the defense battled.  Gave up a lot of 3rd down conversions and a lot of good plays, but just sorta kept chopping and eventually got some results.  The final interception that sealed the game was HUGE, and I thought a really good play by DJ White.  (I think it was him).  They had run the same route combination on us several times that game.  The outside WR runs a short out, about 5 yards, and the slot WR runs a little deeper and cuts to the sideline.  The QB reads the corner and throws where he isn't.  Usually that had been the underneath route.  Roof spent most of the day playing relatively soft zones.  Well this time White faked like he was jumping the short route and baited the QB into throwing behind him, but then jumped back to the deeper route right before the throw.  I'm sure the VT fans thought it was a stupid play by the QB, but in my opinion White made a great play and put a lot of pressure on the VT QB.  

Obviously Justin Thomas was a huge positive, for the most part.  Made some huge plays in the Fourth quarter.  And I love watching him run.  The 80 yard TD run was awesome, even though it was called back.  I think we are going to see a few more of those this year.  

I thought the offensive line looked pretty good, for the most part.  

The linebackers looked good and the entire defense was fairly consistent against the run.  

Now for the bad stuff.  Our perimeter blocking on offense really wasn't very good.  Watching it live I thought VT outschemed us and just played their assignments, but actually there were some option pitches that failed, but would have been good gains if the outside block wasn't putrid.  We have got to get that cleaned up.  

We left a lot of points on the field otherwise as well.  The silly penalty to call back Thomas' long TD run, for example.  I call it silly because there wasn't really a need to try to cut the guy (the penalty was an illegal block below the waist because it came from the side, sort of - it was debateable).  He could have blocked him high pretty easily, as it wasn't that close to the play.  Or really, he could have done nothing.  The guy wasn't going to tackle Thomas, but maybe the blocker couldn't have known that.

There was the 4th and 2 should-have-been-an-easy-TD-pass.  Play action and I LOVED the call.  Totally fooled the defense and he was WIDE open.  Laskey completely whiffed his pass protection block, which threw off Thomas' timing, although I thought he still should have completed the pass.  A lot of bad on that play.  Laskey also missed a similar block later, on the play immediately before Smelter's game tying 4th quarter TD.  That allowed Thomas' pass to be deflected and it should have been picked off.  We were that close from getting beat.  

Not the biggest fan of the defense's third down conversion rate.  For a while it seemed like we couldn't get them into third and long enough.  They'd convert anything.  

So there were plenty of good takeaways and plenty of bad takeaways from this game.  I really like the fact that we played only mediocre but still found a way to win.  Let's focus on that.


On to Miami.  The most notable thing about Miami may be the lack of speed on defense.  I mean for a Miami team.  You expect tons of talent just flying all over the place.  Even some of the more mediocre Miami teams of the last 6-7 years had that.  This year's version is oddly mediocre in this regard.  They do, however, have a phenomenal middle linebacker - Denzel Perryman.  Reminds me a little of NC State's Nate Irving who gave us fits in 2010.  We need to get him blocked, but if we do that consistently, and execute just OK everywhere else, there should be some running room.  We will need the perimeter blocking to be much better than it was against VT.  

Offensively, Miami is interesting.  Lot of talent.  Duke Johnson is excellent.  Their WR Philip Dorsett is one of the fastest players in the country.  I think the QB, Kaaya, while extremely inexperienced, is pretty talented too.  Miami scares me a little bit because they have been an inconsistent, mistake prone (poorly coached?) team.  But I think they have more talent than they've shown.  Its a lot easier for a talented, inefficient team to "play smart" one game than for a smart, efficient team to "play athletic" one game.  

Nevertheless, offensively this year they've mostly relied on big plays.  They are in the top 30 nationally in plays of 10+, 20+ and 30+ yards.  But they are 75th in total yards and 96th in first downs.  So they don't sustain drives much.  They hit big plays or else they make mistakes and punt.  

Meanwhile, our defense hasn't been the greatest at getting people off the field.  So can Miami sustain drives for a change, or do we get a lot of stops for a change?  This will be like the resistible force against the movable object.  Something has to give.  What is a pretty safe bet is that Miami will hit some big plays.  GT is in the 60's and the 80's respectively in plays allowed of 20+ or 30+ yards.  And we haven't exactly played a bunch of teams known for their offensive prowess.  

So you'd expect Miami to score.  I'm hopeful that with the home night crowd, and the energy in the stadium, our defense can get some stops.  Miami has been a little mistake prone.  If we can also shorten the game with sustained successful drives on offense, then maybe we can hold them in the 24-30 range.  I think they score at least that much.  But we might well be able to beat that.  I would think we should score in the 30's.  

The game probably comes down to who makes the plays in the 4th quarter.  Its supposed to be close.  If either team wins the turnover battle by 2 or 3 or more, they could win comfortably, but barring something like that, I look for a very good game, and I hope the good guys can pull out another one by stepping up in crunch time.  

As always, Go Jackets!!