Stats

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 6 Preview - Virginia

I haven’t actually seen very many Tech fans on any of the sites I read making predictions for this week. The few I have seen are, somewhat predictably, all over the map, except that no one really thinks we’ll get blown out. But I have seen a close loss, a tossup, a close win, and an easy win. To that I respond, “yep, that’s about right”.

To this point, both teams have been very inconsistent. Virginia has only played two games of consequence. I don’t care too much about them soundly beating Richmond and VMI, except to say that they must be better than the last couple of years, since they used to be in tight games with teams like Richmond. However, UVA could beat those teams easily and be pretty good, or they could still be pretty bad. As for their two games of consequence, they looked good in a loss at Southern Cal, and they looked real bad in a loss at home against FSU.

On the other hand, maybe that isn’t so inconsistent. Southern Cal hasn’t looked like a very good team this year, so maybe keeping it close on the road doesn’t mean much. And FSU has looked really good in every game this year except that little game they played in Norman, Oklahoma. Maybe that was a fluke, FSU is really good, USC is not very good, and thus UVA is actually consistently not very good. Granted, Southern Cal obviously has a lot of talent, but they have a depth problem, a possible coaching problem, and a likely motivation problem. So that explanation could be right.

According to Sagarin, UVA is 12 points worse than FSU on a neutral field, and 7 points worse than USC on a neutral field. Sagarin adjusts by 3 points for home field. So they should lose at USC by 10 (actually lost by 3) and should lost at home to FSU by 9 (actually lost by 20). So maybe they are inconsistent. They are much more consistent according to Phil Steele, who has UVA roughly 20 points worse than FSU, and 8 worse than USC.

Georgia Tech is unquestionably inconsistent. The computers have us 6 (Steele) and 3 (Sagarin) points worse than North Carolina (who we beat on the road) and 12 (Sagarin) and 13 (Steele) points better than Kansas (who we lost to). The scores are pretty far off in the case of Wake and N.C. State as well, even though both computers think we should beat Wake and lose to State, as we did.

Trying to predict what two inconsistent teams will do is about like trying to guess what they are going to write about next on everydayshouldbesaturday.com (great site by the way, hilarious, although I must confess I don’t believe I really get about 50% of the jokes). Just trust me, that means it is hard to guess. And I haven’t exactly been the most accurate with my predictions lately, picking two easy wins for GT. Ok, I’ve been awful. Absolutely atrocious really. But here goes nothing…

For this week I’ll predict a tougher than I would like for it to be 10 point win for GT. But that is 10 points with a late TD to seal a victory in an otherwise very nerve racking game.

Virginia is equally difficult to figure out in terms of how they play. They were a balanced offense against Southern Cal. They could only pass against FSU. Of course that was only in the second half. They only managed 40 total yards in the first half (260 in the second after the game was decided). Defensively, they gave up more passing yards to USC and more rushing yards to FSU.

The real problem in trying to figure out Virginia is that they have a new head coach and they have only played two games that really matter. But I think the one thing that is clear is they are better than last year.

As for us, well, I keep expecting us to get better, mostly because I have a lot of faith in Coach Johnson. But obviously we haven’t done it yet. I really hope we start making progress, because we only have two more games before the competition gets really tough.

Defensively, we did look better last week, but again that could be just because Wake was not very good. I don’t really know what to make of that fact that London and several other of UVA’s coaches once coached under Groh. Groh was quoted in the papers this week as saying that they will have an advantage because they know how he thinks, and they know his system and the ways he adjusts it. I think that could be Groh attempting some trickery. It certainly could be an advantage for UVA’s staff, but it also could be an advantage for Groh if he is able to use the fact that he knows what they think he will do in certain situations. I guess we will find out how tricky Groh is.

But really, at home, we probably should be able to win this game even if they know very well how Groh is going to coach this game. Our defenders are still free to defeat blocks and cover receivers, and if Johnson can get the offense going, we could score a lot of points. But, pretty much everything going into this game is a big IF. And just to make matters even more complicated, UVA has seemed to have our number over the years, at least until last year.

As for how the game will go, UVA the last few years has tended to be pretty strong on both lines, but didn’t have tremendous team speed. Given that, I would expect them to be able to run the ball on us fairly well. That should open up their passing offense, so it will be up to Groh to do a good job of taking away the right things at the right time (rather than taking away most things most of the time, like you’d like). Offensively, we should be able to hurt them with our pitch plays, and hopefully that will open up the rest of the offense, but that assumes we will block better, both on the line and on the edge. And that assumes we will actually pitch the ball some. If we play like we did against Wake, we probably won’t score a touchdown until the fourth quarter again. And then only if we start to play better in the fourth quarter again.

Let’s take a look at all the usual numbers. First the “talent”, based on espn.com’s recruiting rankings. I’ll preface this by telling you there is a significant negative correlation so far between the more talented team and points scored in the game… (for people reading this who didn’t actually attend GT, that means so far this season, the more talented team based on my analysis has been losing pretty much every week).

2007

2008

2009

2010

GT

UVA

GT

UVA

GT

UVA

GT

UVA

Best

81

79

80

78

80

79

80

83

Top 5

79.4

78.4

78

76.2

79.4

78.4

79

79.4

Top 10

78.5

76.7

77.3

74.5

78.8

77.8

78.2

78.4

Avg.

75.65

75.23

76.53

74.09

76.85

76.37

77.06

76.7

Total Players

20

13

15

11

21

19

16

20

Overall we appear to have a decent edge, but not its not much. Although since we lost to Kansas (less talented than us) beat UNC (more talented) and lost by a lot to State (about the same as us) I am not sure what this is worth. Additionally, UVA has brought in close to 10 players a year that espn.com never got around to rating, so those players can’t be counted. But there are the numbers we do have.

Here are the stats on the season.

GT

UVA

Rush Yards Per Game

298.2

126.25

Rush Yards Per Carry

5.58

3.8

Rush Yards Allowed

156.4

143.25

Rush Yards Allowed/Carry

4.1

4.15

Pass Yards Per Game

90

273.25

Pass Yards Per Att.

6.8

7.6

Pass Yards Allowed

191.4

174

Pass Yards Allowed/Att.

7.6

5.9

Yards Per Play

5.8

5.8

Yards Per Play Allowed

5.1

5.0

Points Per Game

29.6

27.5

Points Allowed Per Game

25.4

17.8

You can see they pass for a little over twice as many yards as they run. We have been pretty decent against the pass this year, but not great. They do not run the ball very well. 3.8 yards per carry is low, and half their games were played against VMI and Richmond. That may help us. Surely if they cant run that well on those teams, our run defense can put up a respectable performance. Their run defense looks pretty good on paper, but again those stats are compiled against a questionable schedule. FSU ran all over them last week, putting up 290 yards in the first half, and most of those were on the ground.

I see nothing there to refute my contention that we probably should win by about 10 points. If we play well, it could be a lot more than that, but then again, if they play well, they could win. I don’t think I need to remind anyone that we can lose to Virginia.

My goals for the week:

Offense

Score 28 points. This is a low goal, but right now I’ll take it.

Gain 400 yards. Same as above.

No more than one turnover.

Defense

Hold them to no more than 17 points. FSU shut them out until the game was decided.

Hold them to 350 yards or less. This is only a little less than their average.

Force at least two turnovers.

I am not aiming nearly as high as usual with those goals, but after the last two weeks, I will take any win here so long as it looks like we are improving.

Go Jackets!

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Week 5 Analysis - Wake Forest

As I expected, watching the tape of this game did not make me feel any better. If possible, I now feel worse. Going into the game, I did not think Wake was a very good team. On tape they don’t appear to be a very good team. Well coached, sure. Experienced, and do they play with good technique? I think so. They anticipate well and they understand how to play the game. But they aren’t very talented, they aren’t very big, and they just aren’t very good. A tough scrappy team, but a team that we need to be able to beat comfortably by the time the 4th quarter starts if we want to be any good.

They gave us trouble last year, but last year they were better. Most notably, they had a good QB last year. Skinner really allowed them to pass very effectively. This year, their passing attack was non existent. Meaning we allowed a one dimensional team, which does not have a good offensive line, to score 20 points on us.

It is true that last year they gave us trouble and we were a good team last year. But, in the game last year, we couldn’t get out of our own way in terms of execution, and that appeared to be the problem. This year, we did not execute very well, but it appeared that the main reason they gave us so much trouble (and arguably should have beaten us) is that we just weren’t much better than they were. Last year, we dropped a long third down pass at their 2 yard line, settling for a field goal. We missed a wide open Thomas for a would be 70 yard TD. We fumbled the snap on a fourth and one play and fell on it. We had a 60 yard reverse TD to Hill called back for holding. Plays like that caused us to be in a dogfight even though we seemingly gained 15 yards every time we ran the option.

This year, by contrast, good option plays were few and far between, and they were in our backfield stuffing us for losses regularly. They stopped a fourth and one again, but we didn’t have to fumble. They just stopped us. We didn’t help ourselves with 5 fumbles. We only lost two, but the others caused us to lose yards and turned possible good plays into negatives. So execution hurt us, but even when we didn’t have any obvious execution problems, we didn’t seem to be moving the ball very well.

So what happened? Offense was the main problem. First, we got very poor blocking. As I see it, there are two possible reasons for this. One, we just aren’t very good. That is becoming increasingly likely. Or two, we are pretty talented, but young enough that we are still trying to learn how to play together, and how to do so at game speed. N.C. St was a very fast defense, and Wake Forest had good speed as well. Additionally, Wake Forest seemed to be actively trying to guess each play and aggressively jump the gaps in our line to get penetration into the backfield. That strategy can work well when you are playing an inexperienced offensive line, because inexperienced players tend to be hesitant. I did see a lot of plays where our linemen seemed to be surprised by how their defenders were moving. (conversely, we looked pretty good against UNC, who is a good defensive front but probably not as fast as Wake and State, especially on the D line).

Adding to the problems was the fact that they seemed to play with better technique. Their defenders consistently got underneath our blockers, winning the battle for leverage and allowing them to move relatively freely to clog up gaps. They also seemed to have better balance, which allowed them to move a little better. Finally, they looked more experienced. By that I mean they looked more sure of themselves, making decisive movements. Our guys sort of tip toed around, not appearing exactly sure of where to go or who to block.

Aside from the blocking, we played ok, but we did miss enough reads and drop enough passes that we failed to take advantage of many of the plays where we actually had openings. And of course the fumbles didn’t help. I do think we need to get back to pitching more, because the pitches in my opinion give our blocking the biggest margin for error. This is because the pitch plays attack the areas with the most space, so even if miss a block or two our runner has a reasonable chance to make one or two guys miss. If we pitch early and often, that usually causes the defense to spread out to stop it, and that allows the dive play to get going. More on that in the drive by drive analysis below.

Defensively we actually played pretty well. We did give up 20 points to a poor offense but we were put in some bad situations. They took over after a bad punt at our 35 and got no points, and we forced numerous three and outs. We also held them to two field goals when they were inside our ten. One of their touchdowns came after a fumble gave them the ball at our 20. We only gave up two real bad drives of the game. One was the first TD, where we had several chances to stop them and missed them all, allowing a 60 yard drive. The other was the final drive, where we let them go 55 yards for the go ahead field goal in crunch time.

On the whole the defense played well. I know Wake is not very good on offense, but our defense needs to build some confidence right now, so I’ll take what we can get.

Let’s take a look at the stats.

GT

WF

Rush Yards

209

161

Yards Per Carry

4.4

3.7

Pass Yards

130

107

Yards Per Attempt

6.2

4.7

Total Yards

339

268

Yards Per Play

4.9

4.1

Points

24

20

Turnovers

2

0

You can see there that we looked like the better team. We lost the turnover battle, which probably kept the game closer than it should have been. However, I wonder how different the stats looked until our last two drives of the game. We looked significantly more urgent to me on those last two, or even the last three counting the FG drive before the last two TD’s. My guess is that for the first 50 minutes of the game, we were losing the battle statistically.

Here is how I grade the units –

QB – Nesbitt played great, and he gets a 9. Could have made a couple better throws, and a few more reads, but he played well the whole game and made several great runs and throws.

O line – 2 out of 10. Looked outclassed for most of the game, and I don’t think Wake’s front is very good. A lot of confusion and hesitation.

Running Backs – 5 out of 10. They didn’t block very well either, but they did make several nice catches. I would say the running was average.

Receivers – 3 out of 10. They made a few plays on the last couple of drives, but Melton also dropped a 50 yard great pass on the last drive, and they had several drops the rest of the game. Hill had a few noticeable ones once again. The guy is really going to be a good player for us, I am convinced. But how long do we have to wait?

D line – 7 out of 10. They could have overwhelmed Wake’s O line, because its not very good, and they didn’t, but they did win the battle. And they pressured QB’s, made tackles and broke up a few passes. Overall good game.

Linebackers – 8 out of 10. Very good game.

Secondary – 6 out of 10. Tarrant played a terrific game, and Johnson tackled well, but there were some breakdowns in pass defense, and Wake Forest is not very good passing the ball. Particularly with their third and fourth string QB’s playing. Come on guys.

Here is the drive by drive analysis:

WF first drive

Good defense for us. They helped us out to start with a false start penalty. Aside from that the first drive was pretty similar to the rest of the game, and is what our defense would look like if we were good enough up front to beat the blocks of good teams. We aren’t very good up front, but we were good enough that Wake Forest (bad blocking team) could not block us.

They ran twice for 2 yards, and on third and 13 almost completed a tough pass over the middle, but we made a decent play to knock it out of his hands at the last minute.

Three plays, negative 3 yards, punt.

GT first drive

We actually appeared able to get a pretty good push on Wake’s defensive front. At least at first. On several plays their nose tackle made tackles or affected the play even after he was pushed back a yard or two, because he was lower than our guy. After the initial push, he was underneath and had leverage on our lineman. That allowed him to shrug him to the side and get back into the play, jamming up Allen and letting the linebackers move wide a little earlier (good example of the better technique I mentioned earlier). We picked up a first down with a good run by Cone on a receiver screen, but then they stopped us when their nose tackle stuffed Allen and then Nesbitt was run down from behind on a counter option. That forced third and long and we threw a poor pass, which Hill made a poor attempt to catch.

Six plays, 10 yards, field goal. Good kick by Blair. (note that we only gained ten yards but got a field goal. We started on their half of the field. Wasted chance to get off to a good start.

WF second drive

Another three and out. Only really played well on one play of three though. First down great blitz, two guys come in unimpeded to the QB, but both clumsily take the same angle and whiff, letting him run for 7 yards. We stuff a run for a loss of 2 and then blitz on third down, don’t get there, but they miss a makeable pass into the flat. QB threw it over his head. Coverage was ok, but we really didn’t force that. Might have been a half yard short for the first anyway though.

Three plays, 5 yards, punt.

GT second drive

We were moving the ball down the field pretty well with good blocking. Only complaint I have is that on one play Nesbitt gave to Allen when the middle was pretty clogged and there was only one guy to the outside. We had a counter triple option, with the A back who would eventually be the pitch many coming in motion from a wide receiver spot. At the snap, he turned around and ran back to the side where he started. They were fooled, thinking we would option the way he motioned, and only had one man over there. I think if Nesbitt keeps we might hit a big play there, maybe even a TD, as we were at Wake’s 40 already. As it was, Allen gained 4.

But the drive was rolling along until a terrible play, a called run right for Nesbitt where both A backs lead block for him. Two linemen badly missed blocks, and they pursued well, hitting us for a loss of 5 or so. On top of that Phil Smith got a personal foul. That set up third and 23. And really, somewhat amazingly, with a good pass/catch we should have converted. Cone was open. But we missed it. The pass was worse than the catch, but it could have been caught.

Six plays, thirty yards, but backed up 15 by a penalty, punt.

WF third drive

On the first play they ran a very good play, running straight ahead with one guy but having a receiver coming around to fake a handoff a split second later on a fake reverse. Our outside linebacker and corner bit on that, and their offensive line did a good job sealing our defensive line. On top of that, our safety on that side let himself get inside a blocker, so the running back was able to get about 50 yards before Tarrant ran him down, saving a TD. Really good game for Tarrant by the way. He seemed like he was everywhere, but especially wreaking havoc behind the line of scrimmage.

After that, their offensive line started to have some success, as they ran two plays down to our ten yard line pretty easily. But then Tarrant stuffed a running play for a loss of three on a great blitz. They gained about 6 back on a bootleg, and then from third and goal from the 6 we forced a dump off pass into the flat and tackled him at the 4.

OK drive after the big play. Very poor execution there though. And it appears that we are starting to get to that point (that seems to come pretty early every game?!) where the other team begins to do noticeably better blocking us. Tired? Well before that play we had only been on the field for 6 plays. Sigh.

70 yards, 6 plays, held to a field goal.

GT third drive

Another play started this drive where I thought we had a good pitch working, and Nesbitt gave it to Allen for 4 yards. On the next play we did pitch to Orwin, and even though they had played the pitch much better this time, Orwin made a couple guys miss to get 5. After a penalty, setting up third and 6 instead of third and 1, we converted with a good throw. Then we hit Bostic on a pitch for about 20.

We finally got going on this drive where we pitched twice. I couldn’t help but think, why haven’t we been pitching more? I have always thought that our offense, since its based on speed, is actually backwards from the old power options in that the pitch sets up everything else. Nebraska in its old triple option used to try to establish the dive man, and then get to the pitch. I always thought that our offense really works better when we play as fast as we can, and get a few pitches. By “playing fast”, I mean Nesbitt taking off as fast as he can for the corner and the A back being right with him, so that the pitch actually goes a little bit forward. That is when the triple option pitch hits so fast that its very hard to defend. We seem to be largely ignoring the pitch, and especially those type of hyper fast pitches, so far this year. I wonder why that is? I am sure Paul knows what is going on better than I do and he is working on it, but I do wonder about that.

Anyway, after that play to Bostic, we ran three plays without much blocking. On second down their nose tackle got off his block way too easily and darted in to turn Nesbitt back. We optioned left, and maybe had an ok play working, but the nose tackle was in so fast that it caught Nesbitt off guard, and forced him back inside where he had nowhere to go. Then on third down, we didn’t block anybody but Nesbitt broke about 3 tackles to gain 4 yards and almost a first down. We go for it on fourth from there 20, but they lined up several guys on the line and blitzed right by the center. One guy came in unblocked and hit Nesbitt before he could do anything. Not really sure how to counter that. Although Nesbitt did have Orwin on the pitch. The play was just starting so Orwin was nowhere near turning the corner, and they had plenty of guys there to pursue him, but he would have had a better chance than Nesbitt did. But Nesbitt hardly had any time to think, so oh well, good guess by them to jump the middle of our line with a big blitz.

50 yards on 8 plays, turnover on downs.

WF fourth drive

Shaky start, getting fooled badly on second and long on a screen pass for twenty yards. But then we played well, blitzing and stuffing a reverse for a loss of 6, then doing better on a screen, and then blitzing very well to force a throw away.

5 plays, 20 yards, punt.

GT fourth drive

Awful execution here. First we block nobody again. Actually, we block everyone but only for a second. Again we get a good push up front, but they seem to have better technique. They get underneath us and shed us quickly, and then pursue the play. Because of this, we option and it goes nowhere. Then we fumble the snap, and fall on it. On third and long we try to pass, block nobody again, and get sacked.

3 plays, loss of 7 yards, punt.

WF fifth drive

They run three straight option plays on us. We defend them all well, but a poor tackle on second down allows the runner to get a couple extra yards, bringing up third and two. Where the QB falls down for us. We might have stopped him anyway, but that made it easier.

3 plays, 8 yards, punt.

GT fifth drive

First play we option and pitch to Bostic on the right for 15 yards. Great block by Allen to help spring him, completely taking his guy out of the play. That was necessary because there wasn’t much space over there.

Then we option the other way, pitch to Bostic again, and there appears to be a seam. Can’t tell how far he would have gotten downfield, but its safe to say at least 5 yards and maybe much more. But he dropped it. And Wake got it. And we had been at WF’s 40, so that was another promising drive wasted.

1 play, 15 yards, fumbled.

WF sixth drive

Poor execution here. We played pretty good defense most of the drive. Had two shots to get off the field. The first came right away on third and 13. We let him scramble for the first after a poor blitz, which was really terrible since they hadn’t been passing well at all, so you wonder why we weren’t guarding against a scramble a little more. You have to contain him. Then the next set of downs we forced third and three and they converted with a receiver screen for about ten yards. Then they finally draw up a good pass play, faking a run, bootlegging and dragging the tight end. Given how often they were running, I don’t mind us biting on that fake too much. That got them to our 2, and from there they actually needed 4 plays to score. We really were stronger up front. In fact, on 4th, we had a good shot to stop them. Our front line got good penetration. Would have liked to see our linebackers play with a little more desperation there. Instead they hesitated and the back barely got in. If we launch forward aggressively (somewhat like Wake was doing to us most of the game) then we probably stop him for a loss and a turnover on downs.

12 plays, 57 yards, TD.

GT sixth drive.

More poor executuion. We are down to only about a minute in the half, so all passes. First down it appears that Cone was interfered with deep but no call. Then Hill drops a pretty easy 15 yard pass. Nice. Lyons makes up for it with a good screen catch from Nesbitt, who made a good pass into traffic, and then Lyons ran for about 35 yards. After, Nesbitt scrambled for a few, we optioned and Roddy missed a block, and then Hill dropped a 20 yard pass at WF’s ten yard line. Come on Man!

So we settle for a FG and head into half. Catch the ball and we probably had a shot for a touchdown.

6 plays, 45 yards, FG.

Halftime.

GT seventh drive

Came out of halftime and got absolutely no push up front. Toughed out 6 yards on first and second behind no blocking. But then Wake read a screen pass perfectly. Clearly Grobe had them coached up pretty well. When Nesbitt rolled right, the LB’s figured out quickly that he was about to turn back and they all pursued, leaving Hill no space to catch and run.

Three and out, 6 yards, punt.

Wake Forest seventh drive

Good defense against the run for two plays, and then they dropped a screen pass that looked well set up. They had to go seven yards. We might have stopped them, but it looked questionable. Fortunately, an unforced error.

Three and out, 3 yards, punt.

GT eighth drive

Crazy silly drive here. We start off with a couple of bad runs. The most important was second down. We run the counter inside handoff to Peeples, have two linemen pulling and they have only two guys to block, so it could be a real good gain. But both linemen try to block the same guy. And both miss. That’s two on one, and still no block. Wow. Loss of a yard. We convert third and long with a good pass, but that’s called back for a penalty. Then they give us a first with pass interference. We run a couple of good runs finally, but on the second one we were called for holding which set up second and 15. Smith dropped a catchable but bad pass that would have been a first down. Then Smith caught one and made an ok run. I was surprised here to see Orwin not get a first down when he probably could have. He usually runs very angry, urgently and aggressively taking space. Here he seemed to be picking his way a little bit. That set up fourth down, which we went for at our own 35, which tells you a little bit about where Paul Johnson’s mind was at this point. We got it though with a toss that apparently they weren’t expecting. I think they were ready to jump anything in the middle again and this call fooled them. But we killed the next series with a poor pitch on second down that was fumbled backwards 10 yards or so. We recovered, but that killed the drive. Nesbitt was sacked on third down.

12 plays and in the end I think we technically only gained about 5 yards. Outrageous nonsense there.

Wake Forest eighth drive

More good defense. We covered well on first, stopped a run on second, then had one bad play, giving up third and ten easily over the middle on a pass. Then we stopped two more runs easily, one with a great tackle on second down, standing up a guy one on one when he had some serious momentum. I think it was Julian Burnett. Then on third down our D line finally recognized a screen and broke it up, which was good because we were about to give up a first down if he caught it, I think.

15 yards, 6 plays, punt.

WF ninth drive

BUT… then our guy ran into Tarrant on the punt and forced him to fumble the catch. Wake recovered at our 20, and they moved the ball a little too easily this time. Our defense had a chance to get a big stop and force a FG. They played well most of the day, but this was not very good. They gave up a 6 yard run easily up the gut. Then the D line broke up another screen, but on third and four, we let them option for 9 yards on a QB keeper. From there, they ran from the 6 to the 4, against what I would call ok defense. Then on second and goal they ran a shotgun sweep to the right, and the running back cut back to the middle, where we had nobody because we blitzed the other side and overpursued from the middle to the outside, where the run appeared to be headed. They blocked it pretty well as well.

5 plays, 20 yards, TD. And we didn’t even force a third down when they got inside our ten yard line.

GT ninth drive

Another quick three and out. Two poor triple option attempts, where their guys did a good job beating our blocks, or in a couple of cases, simply pushing aggressively forward and going around our blockers, who seemed surprised that the defense might run forward. We then tried to throw deep, but first Josh had to make a guy miss in the backfield since we can’t block. And it was incomplete.

3 plays, zero yards, and a snap over the punters head, resulting in a ten yard punt.

So wake takes over around our 35

Wake Forest tenth drive

Great defense here. We stopped two running plays pretty well, and aided by a false start it was third and 11. There we pressured them into a bad pass. Coverage was ok, a good pass would have gained about 10 but probably would have been short of the first as it was to the sideline and the runner was going out of bounds. But we made it difficult and they could not convert. Huge three and out there, when they took over deep in our territory, and ended up getting no points.

3 plays, zero yards, punt.

GT tenth drive

Well we had a great drive going. We start with a decent pass play that draws pass interference. Then we get some good blocking and a great run by Nesbitt, turning what should have been about a 7 or 8 yard gain into a 50 yard gain. We keep the good blocking going for the next two plays. On first we option right and it appeared that any of the three options would have gotten a pretty good gain. The one we picked was Allen, and he got 9 yards. Then we dialed up the option again, and this time Nesbitt kept and it appeared we had a good play working, but the refs blew it dead for a false start. That killed the drive. Up until now we appeared to be coming off the ball with a purpose. At this point, I cant tell if we lost a step or if Wake really started attacking again. Either way, they appeared to jump the triple option right this time (PJ called the same play that we half ran on the false start and I guess Wake thought he might do that), stuffing Nesbitt for a loss. Then we tried to run a QB draw, but blocked no one, so we settled for a field goal.

Five plays, 55 yards, field goal.

We really could have used a TD there.

WF eleventh drive

Another big stand at a very good time. We played two running plays well then our cornerback broke up a receiver screen. They started the drive at their ten after a penalty on the kickoff return, so they punted from deep in their own territory and we got the ball at the 50.

3 plays, 3 yards, punt.

GT eleventh drive

We must have gotten pushed back to our 40 by a penalty, but I cant figure it out from ESPN U’s fantastic telecast. Anyway, two good runs in a row by Allen netted about 37 yards. The second one is where Allen really got loose, running untouched for 30 yards. We did a much better job of putting a hat on a hat and controlling the guys we were blocking, and then Allen made a nice cut outside to avoid two linebackers and use the one free blocker he had to impede their progress enough so he could get around. That set us up with a first down at their 25. From there, we run a toss right, block it terribly, but Orwin finds 3 yards anyway. A triple option on second down gets 2 yards as Nesbitt keeps, but I think he probably should have given the ball to Allen. Anyway on third and five their D line break up the pass. We go for it on 4th and Nesbitt just makes a great play to roll right, buy time, and find Peeples at the goalline. And Peeples made a good play going up to get the ball in a little bit of traffic. We then convert the two pretty easily, to tie the game up, with the same QB draw that we used to convert the two point conversion to tie the game up against UGA in 2008.

6 plays, 62 yards, and a TD.

Wake Forest twelth drive

6:50 left in the game at this point. Would have been a great time for a big defensive stand. But… we start off by letting them bring the kick out to their 35. We had done a pretty good job in kick coverage so far, but that wasn’t good. We start the drive by stopping two running plays, but then let them convert third down with a quick out route that was a little too easy. Then we stop too more running plays, but let them convert third down with another out, but this time we also covered him so poorly that he turns it up and runs down to our 20. On the next play, a silly personal foul, pushing the QB down by his helmet after he threw the ball, gave them a first down at our ten. We defended a run well on first, and then made a deep cross difficult on second. The receiver dropped a good pass, but it was covered well so I give us a little credit for partially causing that. Huge third down coming up. Would have been nicer to stop them a long time ago, but a FG is much better than a TD with only 3 minutes left. Grobe lets us off the hook with a draw play. I guess he wanted to make the clock run so we either have less time or we have to burn a timeout. Good planning I suppose, but we were going to have over two minutes anyway, so I think if I were Grobe I would have gone for the TD.

Anyway, we stopped the running play. So they ran 10 plays, gained 55 yards, and kicked a FG. Defense played well all day, but here was a chance to really stand tall, and they didn’t really do it. Allowing a 55 yard drive when the game may be on the line is hardly a big success.

GT twelfth drive

Ok return out to our 30 by Bostic.

On first down, Nesbitt made a GREAT play to avoid a sack and then throw a 50 yard strike to Melton which is promptly dropped. It was over the shoulder so it would have been a tough catch, but still, great pass, we have to make that play. At that point I started to think we may have lost our chance. On second down Nesbitt tries Hill deep, but he was too well covered. That brings up third and ten, and we throw for 6 yards to Melton, presumably to make fourth down more manageable. We don’t like to do things the easy, relaxing way, do we?

On fourth Nesbitt makes a very calm, smart play, rolling out to pass but seeing he had the scramble, and running for 15 yards. He is really clutch. Then we get a quick snap and throw it for 9 yards immediately to Roddy because the defense wasn’t set yet. On second and short Nesbitt rolls left and hits Hill on a ten yard out, getting us inside Wake’s 30 and stopping the clock as Hill got out of bounds. 1:18 left now. Those two plays were so easy that many fans probably overlooked their importance during the game. I know I did. But 20 yards in about 20 seconds at that stage was really critical. Good execution and a good job quickly attacking a defense back on its heels.

We option short side now, presumably so that we can get out of bounds. Nesbitt is forced to pitch right away, which he does to Lyons, who makes a really good run to break a few tackles, gain 5 yards and get out of bounds. Nice play there. On second and five protection breaks down and Nesbitt falls forward to only lose a yard, bringing up third and six. There they (surprisingly) give us a pretty easy out to Orwin for the first down at their 16, and Orwin gets out of bounds stopping the clock with 49 seconds left. Big play there as well. Blair has been great all year, but I wouldn’t have really wanted to try a 42 or 43 yard field goal that would be a must make to tie the game.

On the ensuing first down, we option right and pitch to Embry, again the pitch was forced right away, and he gets about five but stays in bounds. We call a pass but Nesbitt ends up having to scramble forward for about two. I would have rather he thrown the ball out the back of the end zone, but oh well, he played a good game, so I can forgive that. We have to burn our last time out, which pretty much means, with 17 seconds left, that our third down play will have to be a pass to the end zone so its either a TD or the incompletion stops the clock. We run a ten yard slant into the end zone, and Nesbitt throws a strike to Corey Earls. Another clutch play. Nesbitt really deserves more credit. He did miss a few reads this game (I think) but you cant be perfect. He threw the ball really well, and would have had a really good stat line if we didn’t have so many drops. And he made several good plays on this drive (gasp – many were even pass plays… I thought this offense fell apart if we had to pass, according to the commentators anyway) to win the game.

Obviously that was the end of the game. We made it a little shaky at the end by kicking out of bounds, giving them the ball at their 40. But they essentially just threw three hail mary’s and we hung on, which is to be expected when they need a TD drive with only about 15 seconds left.

Here is how we fared in my goals for the game:

Offense

Gain at least 500 yards – 400 rushing 100 passing

Didn’t really get close to this. 130 passing, but only 209 rushing. Disappointing.

No more than 1 turnover

Two turnovers.

At least 42 points

Not even close. 24.

Defense

No more than 21 points (this is a little high, but I think our D needs a cushion)

Well, we got this one, but barely.

No more than 300 yards

Nice job here.

Force at least 2 turnovers.

Forced none. Yes, none.

Overall, I would call that a disappointing week, but we at least pulled it together in time to get the win. It could have been much, much worse. But we need to get better. Much, much better if we are going to make any noise in the Coastal race.

The good news is we can do it. Coach Johnson got us to do it in 2008. Remember how that team came together? The offensive line, albeit undersized and not with great talent, really started to figure things out as we beat FSU, Miami and UGA to end the year. We played a poor game in Chapel Hill in between FSU and Miami, but on the whole 2008 was a really good finish.

This offensive line is significantly more talented than that one. I do still believe that, even after watching the past few games. Hopefully, the offense starts to click for them like it did for the 2008 group. If everything comes together, and the defense keeps improving, we could be a pretty good team pretty soon. Or, I could be wrong about everything, and we could lose to anyone left on the schedule and finish about 6-6. But I don’t think I am wrong.

As always, Go Jackets!

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Wake Forest - Quick Review

What. The. $%&!.

The good news? We gutted out a tough win.

The bad news? We had to come from 11 points down in the 4th quarter to barely, barely, beat a bad football team. It took us until the fourth quarter to score a touchdown. We converted less than 1/3 of our third downs. Our first two possessions started at midfield and we netted 3 points.

Wake might have an ok defense I suppose. They held FSU to 10 points through almost three quarters last week, and that was on the road. And FSU, despite the one game against Oklahoma, has looked like a pretty good offense. Then again, Wake allowed a million yards and points in losses to Stanford and Duke. Stanford is really good and the game was played at midnight, but Duke? How do you give up 48 points to Duke?

Maybe its as simple as Wake is not very good against the pass. Duke is a passing team. Wake sure made us look like a good passing team. We completed 11 of 21, for 6.2 yards per pass and 130 total yards. And that was with several drops, including Melton (I think) dropping a 50 yard really good pass from Nesbitt. And Hill dropping most everything we threw to him. Seriously Hill? Anyway, it did seem like every time we went back to pass we had a guy open.

So maybe its as simple as that. Wake has a bad pass defense. We are not very good at exploiting that. But they have a good run defense, and we still cant block anybody. But then again, Wake has been giving up around 5 yards per carry this season, as I pointed out in the pre game analysis. So they aren’t that good of a run defense. So…

We really cant block anybody. My main thought from watching the game last night was “is it possible the offensive line is even worse than it was in 2008”?? Maybe. We now have three games where our best explanation is “we were flat”. At some point, when you keep playing a certain way every week, you cease to be “flat” and start to be just not very good. It did still appear to me that we are not playing with much urgency, but, how can that be every week?

The defense played well, but they were playing against a team with a bunch of terrible QB’s that obviously has to run, since they cant throw, and they have to do it behind a bad offensive line. Glad we could (mostly) stop that team. Great work guys.

And we did make the game much harder on ourselves with a couple of costly turnovers. If you look at the box score, we do appear to be the better team. The problem is the margin. We don’t look much better than Wake, and right now there is a lot of evidence that Wake is not very good.

According to the updated Sagarin ratings after yesterday, we are the #37 team in the country. That is better than I would have thought. We are 10 points better than Wake, 13 points better than Kansas, 3 points worse than UNC and 3 points worse than N.C. State. Again I feel obligated to point out that computer rankings are far from perfect, but they are at least something.

I’ll review the tape today (might extend into tomorrow or Tuesday as well) and the analysis should be up by tomorrow or Tuesday. I don’t expect it to be pretty.

But at least we won. And at least UGA lost. At some point though, we have to start playing better football. If we play like that, we will be in a dogfight with UVA, we could be in a close game with Middle Tennessee (they aren’t terrible) and we may as well not even show up to play the next three, Clemson VT and Miami.

I still think we can play significantly better than this, but at this point, I’m having doubts.

Go Jackets!

Friday, October 1, 2010

Week 5 Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

Last week I had a bad week by “free money” standards, only going 2 and 2. Granted, I did make UGA a “free money” pick even though I thought they might lose. I did that to jinx them, and it worked so well that I may keep doing it. So really I was 2 for 3 on “Free money”, but I gotta score it the way I said it or else the jinx won’t work. UNC and Miami covered for me, and Bama decided to toy with Arkansas before winning so they didn’t cover.

I went 2 for 5 on solid bets. GT, well, whoops. BC failed to cover, by a lot, and LSU barely missed covering 8.5. FSU and Auburn won for me.

Once again my toss ups appeared to in fact be toss ups. I went 1 for 3, with only Maryland covering. Gotta stop betting on Duke. Boise St. also barely failed to cover. Weak Boise. Real weak.

So far on the season:

Free Money

7 for 11

Solid Bets

8 for 15

Toss Ups

4 for 12

Total

19 for 38

Clearly, if you went to Vegas and just put 10,000 down on each of my “free money” bets every week, you would have a pretty good year. (The previous sentence should in no way be read as guaranteeing anything in any way, or even advising you to make any bets at all. Any money you lose is your own fault. I accept no liability for any misplaced reliance on your part.)

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

FSU covers 6.5 at UVA. UVA may be much better this year, but I just have a feeling that they aren’t that good yet.

Oklahoma covers 3.5 against Texas. Take that to the bank.

Maryland will beat Duke by more than 7.5. Not taking Duke to cover anything again anytime soon.

UGA easy money by more than 4.5 over Colorado…

Florida + 9.5? Is this spread serious? I know that the gators didn’t look so good the first couple games, and that Bama beat them senseless in the SEC title game last year, but Florida has some serious talent. I just don’t see it. This game goes down to the wire and could go either way, but UF covers.

Solid Bets:

Take Clemson with 3.5 points. Miami has looked pretty good, so really I am just showing my Clemson bias here. I did grow up as a Tiger fan. I confess.

I am gonna take N.C. State at home getting 3.5 points over VT. Could be a homer pick, since they just beat us, but for now, I am gonna get on the Wolfpack bandwagon.

GT covers 9.5 Homer pick. Big time.

I think Notre Dame beats Boston College by a lot more than 2.5.

Toss-Ups:

North Carolina favored by 13.5 over East Carolina. Tough one to call, but I think UNC gets it done.

Wisconsin favored by 1.5 over Michigan St. Really couldn’t care any less about a game between two ranked teams that I care about this one. I’ll go with the Spartans, because I think Wisky is overrated.

Very tough spread to call, but I will take Oregon by more than 6.5 over Stanford only because they are so good at Autzen stadium.

NESBITT jokes for the week:

1 – The man who said “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” never played defense against Joshua Nesbitt.

2 – When Joshua Nesbitt stops playing football, Nike’s slogan will become “Just Did It”.