Week 7 Preview - Middle Tennessee State

As I am sitting here reflecting on the first half of the season, I am also watching WVU – USF and Kansas – Kansas State. WVU – USF are playing a pretty good game, while Kansas State is driving deep in Kansas territory about to go up 31-0. And its only the second quarter. I cant help but wonder… how in the $%^& did we lose to this team again? I would be willing to wager that 8 randomly selected members of Georgia Tech’s scout team, kicker Scott Blair, Paul Johnson and the girl from Little Giants could put up more of a fight against Kansas St than the Jayhawks are doing right now.

Hopefully, we have come a long way since that game. According to Sagarin, Virginia is 14 points better than Kansas, and we are only supposed to be 2 points better than Virginia. Thus, it would seem that our performance this past weekend would indicate we played better than we have all season long (Sagarin’s prediction is based on our previous games obviously). Especially when you consider that we led 33-14 and it should have been worse than that if we had not given UVA so much help stopping us in the first half.

So what to expect and what to look for this week? I confess that I don’t know much about Middle Tennessee. I do know that they won 10 games last year, and they played a fairly competitive game against Clemson in Death Valley. But that was last year. This year they are 2-3, and have not looked nearly as good. Sagarin has them as the 169^th best team in the country, and says we should win by 21 on a neutral field, and 25 at home. Their two wins came against Austin Peay and UL Lafayette. They lost by a touchdown to a bad Minnesota team, a touchdown to Memphis, and 42-13 to Troy.

I don’t know much about the way they play, but it sure seems like they aren’t very good. One thing I do know about MTSU is their QB, Dwight Dasher, is very good. He is a great athlete with excellent speed, and he is also a good thrower. He would be at a big time school but he is only 5’10 and thus the major colleges didn’t give him a serious look as a QB recruit. He will be a challenge for our defense. But it is a challenge I expect us to overcome, and I look for us to have success on both sides of the ball.

I especially look for us to have success on offense. We need to continue improving our consistency and teamwork on the offensive line. It appears from the Virginia game that they are starting to click. If we can do that, then all we have to do is make the right reads most of the time, and stop the silly fumbles, and we should be able to rack up touchdowns like Paul Johnson offenses tend to do.

Defensively, I expect to see us in the backfield all game. I want pressure and lots of it. Of course, we also need to be aware of our lanes so we don’t let Dasher escape. His name couldn’t be more appropriate, as he is faster than every member of our front seven that will spend most of the game chasing after him. So we have to contain. It can be tough to bring the type of chaotic blitzes that our version of the 3-4 likes to do while simultaneously staying organized enough to maintain containment responsibilities. But I don’t care. I expect us to do it. We will need to in the coming weeks, most notably against Tyrod Taylor, but Parker, Murray and even Jacory Harris have decent speed if they have to run.

As usual, let’s compare the talent of the two teams. I do this by looking at the numerical recruiting rankings posted annually by espn.com. These are less helpful than usual because MTSU has so many players that espn did not rank, so they retain the “40” default and I do not count them in the averages. MTSU had 19, 17, 14 and 19 such players in 07, 08, 09, and 10 respectively. Often times this means these players were not very good prospects leaving high school, but some of these players are actually very good maybe weren’t evaluated by espn.com’s scouts because they developed late. Anyway, here are the rankings that we do have.

	2007			2008			2009			2010
	GT	MTSU		GT	MTSU		GT	MTSU		GT	MTSU
Best	81	78		80	77		80	76		80	73
Top 5	79.4	74.4		78	73.2		79.4	75.2		79	N/A
Top 10	78.5	N/A		77.3	N/A		78.8	74.1		78.2	N/A
Avg.	75.65	73		76.53	70		76.85	74.1		77.06	70.33
Total Players	20	7		15	8		21	10		16	3

Not terribly surprisingly, we have a decisive talent advantage. Our biggest concern will be making sure they do not have an edge in terms of motivation and focus. By that I mean we need to show up ready to play. This team may be able to beat Kansas, especially considering how bad KU is looking at HOME right now against a Kansas St. team that just got hammered by Nebraska. (K St. up 45-0…). While I think we should win handily, if we show up and play like we did at Kansas, we could lose this game.

Let’s take a look at the season stats, although keep in mind MTSU hasn’t played as difficult of a schedule as we have. According to Sagarin, they have played the 189^th toughest schedule, while we have played the 81^st.

	GT	MTSU
Rush Yards Per Game	328	162.2
Rush Yards Per Carry	5.77	4.53
Rush Yards Allowed	153.2	185.4
Rush Yards Allowed/Carry	4.12	3.96
Pass Yards Per Game	84.8	221.4
Pass Yards Per Att.	7.1	6.5
Pass Yards Allowed	199.3	199.6
Pass Yards Allowed/Att.	6.3	6.2
Yards Per Play	6.0	5.5
Yards Per Play Allowed	5.3	4.9
Points Per Game	30.2	27.4
Points Allowed Per Game	24.7	27.4

That is all very interesting, but I think the difference in the quality of opponents the two teams have faced will make a big difference. I expect us to average well better than 3.96 yards per carry against MTSU, for example.

Here are my goals for the game.

The overarching goal is to improve in all areas. Improve our rhythm, teamwork and execution on offense, and improve our understanding of the defense.

The specific statistical goals are as follows.

Offense:

Gain at least 500 yards, 400 rushing and 100 passing. Given that we just ran up 477 rushing alone on UVA, this is set pretty low.

Score at least 50 points. We haven’t come near that mark since S.C. St., and I think it is time the offense gets rolling.

No more than two fumbles total, no more than 1 lost, and no more than 1 turnover.

Get some reps for the backup QB’s. I want to see Tevin get at least two drives and Sims get one. Judging from very limited action, Sims may be as good of a runner as Nesbitt, only faster. Wouldn’t that be something?

Defense:

Force 3 turnovers.

Get 3 sacks.

Hold them to less than 14 points, at least while the game is in doubt.

Hold them under 300 total yards.

I think those are all very manageable if we play well. But remember, the most important thing is to continue getting better.

As always, Go Jackets!

Week 6 UVA Review

First, I apologize for not being as thorough as usual. I didn’t get a chance to review the game in quite as much detail at my friend’s place as I do at home (my DVR is on the fritz… avoid bright house networks at all costs).

However, I think the analysis below is very telling. I have made tables showing each drive for both teams. I highlighted the number of third downs and fourth downs converted because I think that does a good job of showing how hard the defense made the drive.

GT First Half Drives

Start	Plays	Yards	Yards/ Play	3rd downs converted	4th downs converted	End	Result
GT 27	8	49	6.1	None	None	Va 24	FG
GT 16	8	51	6.4	None	None	Va 33	Fumble
GT 33	5	28	5.6	None	None	Va 39	Downs
GT 32	6	57	9.3	None	None	Va 11	FG
GT 43	7	49	7.0	1 (3 yds)	None	Va 8	INT
GT 41	10	59	5.9	2 (5, 4 yd)	None	Va 0	TD

The first thing you should notice is the consistency of our drives. We moved the ball every time, and our yards per play are very good. Those numbers are high for only 13 points.

On the first drive, we maybe score a TD if Nesbitt and Roddy are able to convert the third down pitch. BUT, Roddy didn’t look quite ready for it, and Nesbitt maybe didn’t throw it so well. Ended up being a big fumble and loss of 13, on a play that looked promising.

On the second drive, Nesbitt said he thought Allen was taking the ball on the third down fumble, and he probably should have. It was 3^rd and 7 from UVA’s 35 or so, and Allen would have been close to the marker. At least close enough to go for it on 4^th.

Third drive, they just stopped us on 4^th and 4. Nesbitt had nowhere to throw or run. Good defense.

Fourth drive we had another pitch problem on third down, again from around UVA’s 10. This time Nesbitt just didn’t pitch. If he does pitch, Roddy gets in easily. He had tons of space and blockers, against 2 defenders who weren’t really in position. Poor read.

Fifth drive - crazy stupid play to turn the ball over here. Nesbitt should know better. We at least should have had a FG.

Sixth drive, we finally score. And we should have.

On the half, I will say the worst case scenario realistically was about 6 - 9 points, if we turn the ball over some and only get FG’s out of a few drives. The best case scenario was 35 points, as they only really stopped us once. We got into the red zone on four drives and were headed there on the other one until the fumble. A quick glance at our yards and average yards per play (about 300 and more than 6) should be a dead giveaway that 13 points means we killed ourselves with stupid mistakes.

UVA First Half Drives

Start	Plays	Yards	Yards/ Play	3rd downs converted	4th downs converted	End	Result
Va 25	3	9	3.0	None	None	Va 34	Punt
Va 34	10	33	3.3	1 (7 yds)	None	GT 33	FG miss
Va 40	4	60	15	None	None	GT 0	TD
Va 11	3	-1	-.33	None	None	Va 10	Punt
Va 16	3	1	.33	None	None	Va 17	Punt
Va 32	4	15	3.75	None	None	Va 47	Half

Conversely, they gained about 120 yards on 27 plays, which is barely more than 4 yards per play. And 40 of those came on the TD run, so the rest of they half, they messed around getting less than 3 yards per play and not very many first downs. Really a good job by the defense, except that one drive. The offense let us down to this point, as we should have had a big lead at the half.

GT Second Half Drives

Start	Plays	Yards	Yards/ Play	3rd downs converted	4th downs converted	End	Result
Va. 41	11	41	3.8	None	2 (1, 1 yd)	Va 0	TD
GT 20	6	80	13.33	1 (3 yds)	None	Va 0	TD
GT 20	5	9	1.8	None	None	GT 29	Punt
GT 3	11	97	8.8	1 (11 yds)	1 (1 yd)	Va 0	TD
Va 39	3	-3	-1.0	None	None	Va 42	Punt
Va 45	2	5	2.5	None	None	Va 40	Game

Better half here. We made it look a little harder on the first drive than I would have liked, but we scored, then went on to play well and put the game away. The last two drives were largely irrelevant, and another quick glance at the yards per play indicates that we were pretty successful on offense.

UVA Second Half Drives

Start	Plays	Yards	Yards/ Play	3rd downs converted	4th downs converted	End	Result
Va 29	3	13	4.33	1 (16 yds)	None	Va 42	Fumble
Va 40	4	60	15	None	None	GT 0	TD
Va 35	7	24	3.4	None	None	GT 41	Punt
Va 39	5	59	11.8	None	None	GT 2	Downs
Va 34	5	5	1	None	None	Va 39	Downs
Va 2	9	98	10.9	2 (6, 10)	None	GT 0	TD

We seem to have trouble finishing games. The defense still looked good in the second half, but we gave up a couple of big plays. However, after one (a very poor tackle on a short pass leading to a 60 yard gain inside our 10) we regrouped for a goal line stand that basically sealed the game. Great work there, but I would rather see us not let them get that close. Anyway, on the whole a good game for the defense.

Both units are showing improvement. Virginia is not very good, so don’t get too excited about this performance, but it is better. We outgained UVA in the first half roughly 300 yards to about 120. FSU outgained them last week 290 to 40, and they look like a pretty good team right now. Offensively, we are not far away at all. The blocking was much better, and it looks like as a team we are starting to “get it”. A handful of silly execution problems slowed us for a half, but we should continue improving. Defensively, we seem more sure of ourselves. I don’t expect us to get as good as we will get in the 3-4 for another year or two, so we should continue improving there as well.

Its not quite clear exactly how bad or good UVA is. They played USC close, and they clearly have lots of talent. And that was in Los Angeles. But FSU beat them soundly. Then again, FSU just beat Miami soundly. The ACC seems once again impossible to figure out, but I think its safe to say that we played much better than last week. However bad or good UVA is, they are probably at least as good as Wake, so I’ll take a relatively easy win at home, especially considering that it seemed like our biggest obstacle was ourselves.

	GT	UVA
Rush Yards	477	137
Yards Per Carry	6.4	4.9
Pass Yards	59	239
Yards Per Attempt	9.8	7.7
Total Yards	536	376
Yards Per Play	6.7	6.4
Points	33	21
Turnovers	2	1

Nice to get an easy win even though we lost the turnover battle. I am not too worried about the total yards, since they added 90+ on the last drive when the game was over, or the yards per play, since they were greatly aided by a 50 yard run, 50 yard pass and 40 yard TD run. Although we do need to cut down on the big plays. But for the most part, the bulk of the game, we did a very good job containing them.

Here are my goals for the game and the results:

Offense

Score 28 points. This is a low goal, but right now I’ll take it.

Got this and it should have been more.

Gain 400 yards. Same as above.

Got this easily.

No more than one turnover.

Oops. Oh well, only 2. Three if you count turnover on downs.

Defense

Hold them to no more than 17 points. FSU shut them out until the game was decided.

We held them to 14 while game was in doubt. But we need to finish, so I say fail.

Hold them to 350 yards or less. This is only a little less than their average.

Barely lost this battle, but once again, the last 90 yards put them over this.

Force at least two turnovers.

Only one. Good game for the defense to have missed all three goals. We did get 4 sacks though.

The main takeaway for me from this game is that we are improving. I thought we would, with this coaching staff, but it is still good to see that its happening. We need to continue improving, because we cant afford to make the mistakes we made against UVA when we hit the Clemson VT Miami stretch. Only one more game, and two more weeks of practice, before we start playing for keeps. (although don’t think for a second that we cant lose to Middle Tennessee… that won’t be a problem if we show up focused, but showing up focused has been a problem for us at times.)

For now, its good to be able to sit back and feel pretty good about the team’s performance. Even though we aren’t quite all the way there yet, I now feel like we will have a real shot to challenge VT and Miami in the Coastal race when the time comes.

Go Jackets!

Week 6 Review Coming

There will be a review of the UVA game coming soon. Just as soon as I am able to watch game. My cable box died last week, so I have no DVR, and I spent this weekend in Miami going to the UM-FSU game. Believe it or not, there is no place around the stadium that gets ESPNU. That includes a casino that is randomly right by the stadium, and that has the typical casino array of TV's and sports bars. But no ESPNU. Arguably the most disappointing 15 minutes of my life. Ok thats an exaggeration. Sort of.

From the stats and ESPN's play by play, it looks like we played better, although we still need to do a better job not beating ourselves with poor execution. I will take the 470 yards rushing though.

Anyway, a review will be up this week, just as soon as I get a chance to watch the tape on my friends DVR. I know everybody is very relieved to know that 1) I will be able to see the game and 2) a review is coming. You can relax now.

Go Jackets!

Week 6 Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

Last week is the first week, I think, that I lost more Free Money bets than I won. 2 for 5. Although again, UGA shouldn’t really count, since I thought that line was far from free money, but the jinx worked! Gotta keep that going this week, even though I think UGA favored by 11 over Tennessee is absolutely ridiculous. Anyway, FSU and Oklahoma covered, and of course Duke covers the one week I bet against the devils. Also, I was way off on Florida, but how was I supposed to know they would have so many turnovers, and that they would include 2 inside Bama’s 5 yard line, AND a pick 6.

I went 1 and 3 on solid bets. All my homer picks, Clemson, GT and State, did not cover. But Notre Dame did beat BC senseless.

Won all three “toss-ups”. Some “expert” I am.

So far on the season:

Free Money	9 for 16
Solid Bets	9 for 19
Toss Ups	7 for 15
Total	25 for 50

Following my free money bets is looking less and less like a good idea.

Overall, I am batting .500, which statistically is what you would expect from a drunken monkey throwing darts at the wall…

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

UGA guaranteed to cover 11 (snickers) against Tennessee.

Florida, with a coach, beats LSU, which may or may not have a person that could accurately be described as a “coach”. I’ll let you decide. Anyway, take Florida by a lot more than 6.5.

I think Stanford is a lock to cover 9.5 at USC. Wow. Never thought I would hear myself say that.

Solid Bets:

N.C. St. covers 9.5 against the defense that was actually recruited to Boston College and the volunteer firemen who play offense for the Eagles.

Clemson is a 2.5 dog at UNC. They cover, but I bet they can find a way to cover 2.5 and still lose the game.

Horse #1 in the SEC’s one horse race will beat South Carolina by more than 6.5

Wake Forest is a 5.5 dog to Navy, which means the oddsmakers think that Navy is better than us and Maryland is better than Wake. Both bad for GT. I think (hope?!) Wake covers.

FSU keeps it closer than 6.5 at home against the U. I think it comes down to a kick. Which means Miami wins, because it will either be Bosher for Miami making it or whatever JV clown FSU has found to become the 19^th guy to miss a game winning kick against the Canes. But either way, its closer than 6.5.

Toss-Ups:

I’ll say GT covers 9.5. That is the definition of a toss up though. We were an 8 point favorite two years ago at home when UVA beat us. No idea what that means.

Michigan favored by 4.5 over Michigan St. I think I’ll stick with sparty. Michigan is better this year, but still not much of a defense. No idea who wins the game, but Michigan State covers the 4.5.

VT covers 23.5 against Central Michigan. I guess. Don’t know. Don’t really care.

NESBITT jokes for the week:

1) Joshua Nesbitt is so good that he managed to be first team All-ACC last year even though he only plays football part time. His full time job is acting under the alter ego “D. L. Hughley”.

2) On the game tying two point conversion QB draw against Wake Forest, Nesbitt didn’t back up 3 steps to fool the defense. He backed up 3 steps to give them a fighting chance.