Week 1 - VT Preview Part 6

The thing we need to hope for is that Godhigh, Deon Hill, Bostic, Zenon etc can block as well has Roddy and Peeples, especially Roddy.  Here is a quick look at Roddy’s blocking ability.  He is the play side A-Back on each play, and each clip pauses when he delivers his block:

Roddy was consistently a very good blocker.  I’m told Godhigh is as well, and that is why he is starting.  I hope he is as good as Roddy.

Week 1 - VT Preview Part 5

And here is a bad play:

The only real difference in these two plays is the A-Back block.  Tevin makes the right read, and in both cases we have a chance for a big gain.  If the A-Back puts his man on the ground, both might be well over 10 yards.  Just get a decent block and its a 5-8 yard gain.  Miss the block and its no gain.  On those two actual plays, one goes for 8 yards and one goes for 0 yards.  One was a decent block, one was a missed block.  Obviously, this won’t always be the case.  Many of our plays don’t depend on the A-Back block at all (Like the B-Back dive for example).  But when we run a pitch, the A-Back block is crucial.  With a great block, there will often be open space for 10+ yards.  Any running back will have a big gain there.  If the block is missed, then even a great running back will struggle to get more than 3 or 4 yards.  This is why you hear Coach Johnson say “whoever blocks the best will play”.  The most important skill at A-Back is not running.  Its blocking.  Having a guy like Orwin is nice, but he still needs to be able to block.  (and thankfully Orwin is a pretty good blocker).

Week 1 - VT Preview Part 4

Scoring more than 17 points against VT’s defense won’t be easy.  But I think we can do it.  Our offense last year was probably good enough to do it if we played well, but we should be even better.  We return 9/10 of our 2 deep on the O-Line.  This is supposed to be our best and deepest O-Line since Paul Johnson got here.  That would be enough to get me excited by itself.  But we also have a returning, 5th year Senior QB, and starting B-Back (although not sure he is 100%).  So the key positions where we need experience, we have it.  In our offense, experience at A-back and WR is less important.  Plus, our guys actually have more experience than many talking heads are letting on.  Everybody can’t stop talking about how our WR’s have no catches ever.  But they’ve been on the field before and run the offense.  They have played snaps and blocked, which is 90% of the game for most of our WR’s.  We may have some growing pains in the passing game (although we do return some A-backs who have caught passes, most notably Orwin).  But our running game should be clicking wonderfully.  Well, if our A-Backs can block anyway.  Here is an example of how important A-Back blocking is for our offense:

Good play:

Week 1 - VT Preview Part 3

The last self inflicted issue to the offense came when we were trailing 34-26.  I guess its not fair to say this was entirely self inflicted.  VT’s defensive pressure helped.  But still, Tevin does not see an A-Back streaking wide open down field.  To make matters worse, the pre snap alignment made it fairly apparent what read to make.  The pass route was four verticals, meaning both WR’s and A-backs take off running straight downfield.  VT had 8 defenders in the box, and only 1 safety patrolling the middle of the field.  The likely coverage is that the 2 cornerbacks play man against the WR’s, and the safety is forced to choose which A-back to cover.  Before the snap, Tevin should have been ready to simply read the safety, and throw to whichever A-back the safety does not cover.  Its possible that I’m oversimplying here.  VT could have dropped into a different coverage.  The pre snap look could have been a decoy.  VT mixes up its defenses enough that maybe Tevin was expecting the non-obvious coverage (maybe rightly so).  Nevertheless, the obvious man came wide open, and would have been an easy pass and catch for a big gain.  

See the right side A-back below (especially in the replay):

There were also some self inflicted issues from the defense, but mercifully, I don’t have the defensive footage from last year, so I won’t be showing those.  I’m sure everybody remembers Attaochu deciding that merely stopping Logan Thomas on 3rd and 19 was not good enough.  We simply have to get him on the ground.  Forward progress?  What’s that?  That single play may have changed the game more than any of the plays shown above.  

And there were a few other busted assignments, mostly in the secondary.  Many of those contributed to allowing VT to convert 3rd and 7 or longer SIX times.  Six.  Sigh.  What may get lost given our poor 3rd down defense is how well the defense played on 1st and 2nd down for much of the game.  VT was a good power running team, with David Wilson and Logan Thomas.  On paper, they were supposed to push us around and really make it hard to get stops (like UVA did last year).  Well, we repeatedly forced 3rd and very long, only to let them convert with an easy pass (a couple of these were tremendous plays by their WR’s, but many were easy passes thanks to poor coverage).  This was probably our secondary’s worst game of the season, and might have been Logan Thomas’ best game of the season.  

Of course, VT had some self inflicted errors as well (every team does every game).  But I think we had far more than our fair share.  Clean up some of those and we might well have won that game.  

So enough about last year.  That was just to show that the teams were, in my opinion, fairly even last year.  VT had their usual advantage of being better coached on defense and special teams (they play some of the smartest football in the country in my opinion), but this game was very winnable.  

So what has changed heading into this year?  Well, first and foremost, VT lost a lot of statistical production.  They do return their QB, who every GT fan probably knows pretty well. He is a good player.  But just good in my opinion.  Not great.  Not as good as many people think.

They lost 2000 of their 2600 rushing yards.  And most importantly, they lost all everything running back David Wilson (who, by the way, is good enough that I took him with a late pick on my fantasy team).  I’m sure whoever VT will run out there at running back will be good.  But there is a big difference in being “good” and being David Wilson.  I can’t imagine there won’t be drop off here.  They also lost nearly 2000 of 3100 receiving yards.  Including Danny Coale, the guy who made the ridiculous juggling catch on 3rd and 11 against us last year.  If he fails to make that catch, VT is punting from its own end zone.  Instead, they have 1st and 10 near midfield.  VT also loses a couple of starting O-Linemen.

Now, VT is a good and deep football team.  The guys they are replacing those guys with are talented, and while they did not start last year, they did play in the rotation.  They have experience.  So how much drop off there really will be is a good question.  Probably the best thing for us is that we are catching VT in Week 1.  Anytime you are replacing several O-Linemen, you’d prefer to have a game or two for them to get in sync.  Groh needs to have some complicated blitz packages he can dial up to take advantage of a group of O-Linemen who may not communicate very well.  I bet he will.

On the other hand, VT’s defense is absolutely loaded.  They return 9 starters.  From a very good group last year.  There is speculation in Blacksburg that this may be one of their best defenses ever.  I’m not sure it will be that good, but its gonna be good.  So, our offense will have to deal with that.  

So VT should have a worse offense (albeit maybe only slightly) but a better defense.  However, I think we will be better on both units.  I’m making a couple of assumptions here though.  First of all, we lost a few players on defense.  Most notably, 2/3 of our starting D-Line, and Julian Burnett, arguably our best linebacker.  Certainly our most active linebacker (although some people feel he was not the best at playing his assignments, he was unquestionably very good at finding the ball and hitting people).  But I think our defense gets better because we have better depth and another year to learn the scheme.  It is Groh’s opinion that his defense learns the most and makes the biggest improvement from year 2 to year 3.  Its a complicated defense.  Takes a while for things to click.  I think this principle is similar to the fact that our offense was statistically better in 2010 than it was in 2008.  We had better playmakers in 2008 (Nesbitt for the full year, Dwyer, Thomas).  Yet our 2010 offense was better, in my opinion because our players across the board understood the scheme far better.  

So, let’s optimistically assume I am right and the defense shows significant improvement.  We will have a better defense, and their offense will be slightly worse.  Somewhat of an edge for GT (although we gave them 37 points last year so we need to be a lot better).  My guess is, if both teams play their to their average level (ie nobody plays an especially good or bad game) then we can hold them to somewhere around 17 points.  

Week 1 - VT Preview Part 2

Having to do this in parts so the videos will work.  Its really one post, but whatever.

Our next major self inflicted issue came on the 3rd and 1, and the ensuing 4th and 1 failure while trailing 27-26.  On both plays, Tevin rushes the timing and does not wait for the B-Back to clear.  This play is a fake handoff to the B-Back, who then acts as a lead blocker for the QB to follow.  I believe Tevin gets the first down relatively easily on either play if he simply waits for the B-Back to get past him, and block.  The key problem on both plays was 1 defender filling the hole.  

See here:

A little more patience to execute the play properly, and its an easy conversion, and this game might have been very different.  

Week 1 - VT Preview Part 1

Anybody else as nervous as I am?  On the plus side, we get a chance to avenge our most frustrating and disappointing loss right away, in Week 1.  Of course, the down side is that there is at least a decent chance that our realistic hopes to contend for the conference go down the drain in Week 1.  Hence, my anxiety.  

I thought we had an excellent chance to win last year, and we threw it away with a lot of self inflicted issues.  The following series is a great example.  We lead 7-0, our defense has gotten 2 stops on VT, we have an excellent chance to work this game.  We take over at our own 10 yard line.  We could drive for a score to make it 14-0, but even if we don’t go 90 yards, if we can move the ball a little bit, we can improve our field position to punt and give our defense rest.  Instead we roll out these 3 consecutive plays:

1 - Great option, we have Tevin and Roddy on the corner against only 1 defender.  Inexplicably, Tevin decides to pitch far too early, with no defender near him.  Makes the decision for the lone defender easy, who tackles Roddy for no gain.  This play might have gone for 10+ yards.

2 - Botched snap, Tevin falls on it for no gain.

3 - 3rd and 10, but a good pass play should convert, but Orwin drops an easy catch.

See here:

The significance of failing to get this first down was huge.  Instead of having the ball at our own 25 or so and possibly driving to score, but definitely giving our defense more rest and better field position, we punt from our own end zone, and VT takes over at our 38.  They punch in a TD and our early 7-0 advantage is erased.  To make matters worse, this came in the 2nd quarter, and we were to receive the ball to open the second half.  Getting this first down would have allowed us to eat some clock, and dramatically increased our chances of either leading or at worst, being tied, at halftime.  

2012 Season Preview - Part 4 - Predictions

I’m going to pick the season 2 ways.  I’ll pick each game based on what I think is the most likely outcome, then I’ll also assign a percentage to each game, to get a more accurate idea of our expected record.  You might be the better than every team you play, and thus favored in every game, but if your chances of winning are only 70% in each game, then you should not expect to be 12-0.  The most likely outcome of each individual game is a win, but you still should expect to be something like 8-4.  So, we are going to look at these predictions two ways.

Virginia Tech - I felt more confident about this pick before we started scratching players off the depth chart left and right.  Young suspended, Drummond suspended, Holton out, Sims & Laskey a little banged up... etc.  However, I’m sticking with it.  GT gets the win.  I believe the key will be an improved defense.  Al Groh has said from day 1 that his defense makes the biggest improvement from year 2 to year 3.  Until I see evidence proving him wrong, I’m going to trust the man.  He has won a Super Bowl as defensive coordinator.  He has coached a lot of football.  The same thing happened with his defense at UVA.  I think we will be significantly better on that side of the ball this year.  Combine that with the fact that VT lost a lot of production from their offense last year, and that Logan Thomas had a career game against us and is not likely to play that well again, and I think we get the win.  VT’s defense will be very good, but they simply are not strong enough up front to completely shut us down.  They are fast and smart on defense, but to shut us down, you need D-Linemen that are so big and strong we simply can’t block them.  (Think Iowa, LSU, Miami a couple of times etc).  VT is not that kind of defense.  Plus I think this will be our best O-Line.  It will be a tough, hard fought close game.  But I like GT to win something like 24-17.  

GT Odds to Win - 55%

Presbyterian - Even off the short week, this will be an easy win.  VT lost to James Madison in the same situation 2 years ago, but I think JMU was better than Presbyterian, and anyway VT gave that game away with a bunch of turnovers.  So JMU still needed a good deal of luck to win.  

GT odds to win - 99%

UVA - Another GT win.  As my previous posts show, UVA was not a very good offense last year.  I don’t think they will be much better this year, so our improved defense should have a good game here.  UVA’s defense was pretty good, but they lost a lot on the D-Line and from the secondary.  Plus, I don’t think they were actually better than us last year.  They benefitted from us playing poorly.  At home, early in the year, a revenge minded GT won’t play poorly.  

GT odds to win - 85%

Miami - As they showed yesterday, this team is still talented and has plenty of speed.  Stephen Morris always has been a talented QB.  But I think this is finally the year we get the Miami monkey off our backs.  They lost a ton of experience and production from both offense and defense, and most importantly, they lost Sean Spence.  We could not block that linebacker.  Their defense won’t give us so much trouble this year.  

GT odds to win - 65%

MTSU - Another easy win.  Just like the last 2 years.

GT odds to win - 98%

Clemson - As much as I hate to type this, I think Clemson gets the better of us this year.  They certainly are due.  I still like the matchup for us, on both sides.  Their offense sets up very well for Groh’s scheme and our personnel.  Their defense is still very poor at beating blocks on the edges.  Which means our pitch plays should be very successful against them, again, which will open up everything else.  But they have a lot of talent, they are in year 2 of Morris’ offense, and they will have the situational advantage this year.  Just the opposite of last year.  This time, we will be the highly ranked team on the road (assuming we are 5-0 with a win in Blacksburg, I expect us to be ranked around #10).  Of course, if Clemson beats FSU, they could also be unbeaten.  But I think they lose in Tallahassee.  So the pressure will be on us.  Good game, tough loss.  

GT odds to win - 40%

Boston College - They will be better, but still not very good.  Not as good defensively as usual.  At home, off a bye week, a comfortable GT win, by 17 or so.

GT odds to win - 90%

BYU - Don’t sleep on Brigham Young.  A pretty good football team.  This will be a tough test.  At home I like us to get the win, but this is a very losable game.  Could go to OT.  I would be happy with any win here.  Not even worrying about style points.  

GT odds to win - 60%

Maryland - Really not a very good football team.  Hung on to barely beat Bill and Mary yesterday.  Should be an easy win, even on the road.  Then again it should have been an easy win last year as well.  And they still have Joe Vellano (D-linemen who got 20 tackles on us last year).  And I think Edsall is actually a pretty good coach.  At some point their chemistry problems will stop and that team will respond to him.  Might be sometime this season.  And, to complicate matters further, this seems like the place in the schedule for a lackluster game.  On paper an easy win, tough non conference game right before, tough road game right after.  Anyway, should be a win, but might get complicated (just like last year).  

GT odds to win - 80%

North Carolina - Probably the hardest team to figure at this point.  They do have some talent.  And probably a coaching upgrade, although I don’t think Fedora is as good as UNC fans think he is.  They are in the first year of a complicated offensive scheme, so catching them early would probably be better than late.  Lucky us, of course we get them late.  But I think our improved defense will do enough here.  Tough road game.  Could be a loss.  But we usually beat UNC in a close game.   I think we do it again.

GT odds to win - 65%

Duke - Is THIS finally the year that Heather Dinich has been warning us about, when Duke will FINALY be much better and make a bowl?  Ok so I like to make fun of the espn.com ACC blog.  I actually do think Duke will be a little better this year.  Still not good enough.  At home, with a better defense, easy GT win.

GT odds to win - 95%

UGA - As much as I would love to find a reason to claim GT wins here (we do seem to play better in Athens...) I just don’t see it.  They are returning a great defense and very good QB.  We will be better this year and hopefully will be good on offense AND defense for a few years in a row, which will give us a good chance to get at least one win over UGA in the next few years (we’ve been trying to beat them with half a team for a few years now...)  But this will be one of UGA’s best teams in recent memory.  I think it will be close.  Not the disappointment we saw last year.  But same result.  

GT odds to win - 35%

ACC Champ Game - Yes, that is right.  We beat VT and went 7-1.  I have us in the ACCCG against FSU.  Who, by the way, has a GREAT defense.  I think we are a complete enough team this year that nobody will blow us out if we play well, but I think FSU is too good.  Low scoring game, but they find enough points to win, something like 20-17.  

GT odds to win - 40%

Game by Game Record - 10-3 (7-1).

Predicted Record by Percentage 9.1 wins, 3.9 losses (5.75 wins, 2.25 losses)

So I think we win something like 9 or 10 games.  The VT game could definitely go either way, but I’m picking us to win.  If we win it, I think we win the Coastal.  I would not be shocked to see us with the ACC Champ Game as well, but I don’t think the odds are in our favor.  Unless Clemson gets there (especially if they beat us the first time.)  But enough hedging bets.  Those are my picks.  We beat VT and lost to FSU in the Champ Game.