Stats

Sunday, September 26, 2010

Week 4 Quick Review - N.C. State

Well, I feel like I let everyone down. I really believed we would play better than that, and I thought I had good reasons. Obviously I was wrong. Haven’t actually been that wrong in a while. Up until this past weekend, we had only lost under Paul Johnson three times where the game was decided before the final few minutes: at UNC in 2008, LSU in the bowl game, and at Miami in 2009. All three of those games were against pretty good teams and were not at home. Well, N.C. St. was at home. Whether or not they are a pretty good team remains to be seen.

The loss was a total team effort. The offense put us in a hole in the first half, and the defense missed several opportunities to let us back into it in the second half. Special teams even gave up a touchdown.

The defense really played well in the first half. I was very impressed. They gave up only 3 points on the first five possessions. They only conceded a touchdown at the very end of the half, and that was just barely, on a long pass play that was initially called out of bounds. That last drive probably doesn’t even happen if our offense had been moving the ball and eating up any clock. And the blocked punt obviously wouldn’t have happened if we hadn’t been punting. Given all that, I would say that if the offense played well, we could have (should have?) been up something like 17-3 or 21-3 at halftime. Then in the second half, the offense finally got something going, but the defense conceded 4 touchdowns on their first 6 possessions.

Here are my initial thoughts from after the game:

Offense:

- Stephen Hill has all the physical tools, but needs to learn how to play football.

- I love Nesbitt, but I think its time we stopped assuming that just because the offense usually runs pretty well, that means he is making all the right reads all the time. I saw enough plays where I thought the ball either should have been given to Allen or should have been pitched and wasn’t that I think maybe Nesbitt deserves a little more of the blame for this game than most will probably give him. More on this in the game analysis after I have had a chance to review the tape. (Of course, after I say this, Nesbitt will probably just use his mind control powers to make sure everyone forgets I said it, including me. But maybe its something we should be thinking about.)

- Did the offensive line play on Saturday? I don’t remember seeing us block anybody at all. Ok that may be a slight exaggeration, but really guys? We can’t block N.C. St.’s front four? I’ll wager that by the end of the season, their defensive line is exposed as not being that good. Maybe we aren’t any better up front this year after all.

- The A backs and receivers probably didn’t block very well either, but I’ll wait until I see the tape.

Defense:

- Where is the sense of urgency? Ever. Our players appear to me to be a little too relaxed. For example, the defensive line doesn’t seem to understand that if the running back breaks through the line cleanly with a full head of steam, that makes it easier to get past the linebackers. I thought I saw some plays where the D line could have lunged and gotten some contact on N.C. St.’s running backs. Even if they don’t make the tackle, a missed arm tackle can slow him down and be the difference between a 5 yard gain and a 12 yard gain, if it helps a linebacker make the tackle when he otherwise wouldn’t be able to make it.

-And the secondary lacks urgency in key situations as well. I remember a third down and 5 or so, on a drive in the third quarter deep in our territory. They threw a pass into the flat about 1 yard short of the marker. It appeared our guy could have sprinted up and hit him before he turned around, and a good tackle would have left him short. But there was no urgency, and he turned and easily made it. On third down and long, also in our territory, with State leading 31-28, Wilson floated a pass into the end zone. Our guy appeared in position to intercept it if he had turned around. He didn’t know the ball was in the air. That in itself is not necessarily a huge problem. In man coverage defensive backs frequently play this way. Ideally he would have figured out from looking at his man that the ball was in the air, and turned to make a play. But even if he isn’t going to do that, when the ball comes down you would like to see him fight like he is trying not to give up the potential game sealing touchdown. From what I saw, he scrapped and fought like it was practice in the middle of April.

I am sure the defense had other problems as well, but I don’t remember any specifically enough to talk about for now. They will be covered in the full analysis coming later this week.

So what does this loss mean for the season? Well, first and foremost, it means we aren’t very good right now. N.C. St. may turn out to be world beaters, but I sorta doubt it. And even if they are, I don’t want to lose by 17 at home. Do I think we can play better than this? Absolutely. But we have to do it, and soon, or else this loss won’t mean much at all for the season. It will just be one of the losses in our 4-4 ACC record.

Secondly, it is a significant loss, much moreso than Kansas was, even if we start playing better. It is not as bad as a divisional loss would be, because for the moment we still control our own destiny in the Coastal. But that is only true if we win out. One more loss, to anybody in conference, and we won’t control our own destiny anymore. So this loss does affect our chances to win the conference. It obviously has no affect on our ability to beat UGA.

We have a couple of games on deck that we should be able to win, which could help get us back on track. But we have to play better. My suspicion is that if we play like we did against N.C. St., then Wake Forest and especially UVA very possibly might beat us as well.

Overall, it was a tough loss, but there is still plenty to fight for… for now. I believe in these coaches (although Groh doesn’t have my absolute trust forever… Good defense in spurts is only going to keep me happy for so long). I believe in these players. But we are in danger of letting our season really start to get away if we don’t start showing some serious improvement, and a lot more consistency.

As always, Go Jackets!

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Week 4 Preview - North Carolina State

Before I write the blog every week I like to read the message boards of various sites like espn.com, the AJC, and the Hive, and try to get a feel for the pulse of Yellow Jacket nation. This week, I was disappointed to see that it seems most everyone feels the 9 point spread that Vegas gave us is “absurdly high”. The consensus from most fans seems to be that any win would be good, and they would not take us with that many points. Everyone seems genuinely confused as to what Vegas was thinking.

I can tell you why Vegas gave us that many points. First of all, the majority of the nation does not really pay attention to teams that closely. They are probably aware that we lost to Kansas, but most probably don’t know exactly how bad of a loss that is. A lot of Vegas bettors will probably be aware that GT is the defending ACC champs, playing at home, and N.C. St. didn’t even go to a bowl last year. And remember that Vegas sets the line in an attempt to get half the money on both sides, so all they really care about is what the typical bettor thinks.

But more importantly, I don’t think the line is off in terms of the way the game should actually go. In fact, in my weekly picks, I took GT to cover. The simple reason for this is that we are a bad matchup for N.C. St. I do think the Wolfpack are improved, and are a pretty good team. But you have to look at how they play.

First of all, their defense is undersized, but fast and scrappy. That does not matchup well against our offense. The number one most important thing to do to stop us is to get a good push up front and have your defensive line get off some blocks. If they can do that, they can limit Nesbitt and Allen running up the middle, which forces everything wide and allows the linebackers to pursue the corner without hesitating. It also prevents our O line from getting downfield and blocking linebackers and safeties. An exaggerated example of this effect was the Iowa bowl game last year. They shut us down almost entirely because their defensive line completely dominated our offensive line. N.C. St. will not be able to win the battle up front. In fact, I expect us to get a pretty decent push. Allen should be able to get 3 or 4 yards pretty easily, and more on some plays. That will distract the linebackers, making them hesitate and focus too much on Allen, which obviously opens the door for Nesbitt and the A backs on the corner.

Furthermore, a lot of N.C. St.’s success on defense comes from good blitz packages. We are not really a team you can blitz. Blitzes work best against a relatively stationary target, like a QB in the pocket. When you blitz us, all you tend to do is get guys in the backfield in the wrong place, and take away guys down the field that might have made a tackle. We are still going to block the guys that we need to block. If you overload one side on a blitz, we will probably just run the other way. At best, if you disguise it well, and manage to overload blitz the correct side, you will eventually get burned by guessing the wrong side if you try to do this more than once or twice. Unless you can correctly figure out which way we are running on every play, but then you could likely stop us without blitzing. Main point being, if NC St. blitzes much they are likely to see a lot of Allen and the A backs sprinting toward the end zone.

So they won’t be able to blitz us very well, and the hesitation that our offense causes will negate some of their speed. They do not have the size to give us problems. On top of all of that, throw in the fact that our offense tends to start clicking sometime around week 4 or 5. 2008 Miss. St. and then last year against UNC were both week 4. I know we didn’t have a great game offensively against UNC last year, but we did gain over 400 yards against a really good defense. And then we really played well against Miss. St. in Week 5 of 2009. I think the combination of us starting to get a rhythm and N.C. St. being a good type of defense for us to play against will lead to us scoring a lot of points.

What about our defense? Most GT fans are very down on the defense, and with good reason. We have not been very good. We have played excellent defense in the fourth quarter two games in a row, which shows that Groh may be as good as advertised at making adjustments. But we do look weak up front and we have not tackled very well.

BUT, again, look at how N.C. St. plays. They are a good offense, but they are very much a finesse offense. Wilson is a very good passer down the field, dropping passing into seam routes and scrambling if nothing is there. Their running game is based on speed, mostly running wide. They do not power block or power run very well. All of that will help us because they will not be very good at attacking our two primary weaknesses. They aren’t very strong up front, so our weakness is not a huge problem. And for the most part they are not very powerful runners. They run around people not through them. So they will not be terribly good at breaking tackles.

Meanwhile, our defense has good speed and is generally tough to run wide against. Specifically, I remember two plays against UNC, a sweep and a reverse, where they tried to run wide and we pursued with 3 or 4 defenders and easily stopped both runs for losses. There were several similar plays against Kansas. Additionally, aside from a handful of busted coverages, we have actually played pretty well in pass defense.

Now, to be fair, just because we are “pretty good” at these things does not mean we can shut down N.C. St. Russell Wilson is very good, and they have some playmakers and a really good offense. I expect them to score on us. I expect us to have a busted coverage or two, and Wilson to scramble. But our defense will likely play better overall than it has to this point, for the reasons listed above.

Finally, as bad as we are, we may be the best defense that N.C. St. has played thus far. Cincy and Central Florida do not impress me that much.

Now, it is certainly possible that we may not execute terribly well, or that we will show up flat since we are 9 point favorites. And while we are capable of beating a very good team, we do not have the athletes or the power on either line necessary to be able to beat pretty good teams without our A game. So showing up flat or executing poorly would probably mean we lose this game. But I don’t expect either of those things to happen. I think given the return home and this being the 4th game of the season, we will be pretty sharp. And I think the Kansas game is fresh enough that Paul Johnson won’t let us be flat.

I expect us to score around 35 to 42, and I expect us to hold them to 21 or so. Of course, if the last two games tell us anything, they will probably get most of those 21 in the first half, before Groh really starts adjusting. Provided we do show up to play, of course.

As usual, let’s take a look at the stats and the “talent”, based on the recruiting rankings.

GT

N.C. St.

Rush Yards Per Game

345

140.3

Rush Yards Per Carry

6.05

3.76

Rush Yards Allowed

154

85.33

Rush Yards Allowed/Carry

4.13

2.67

Pass Yards Per Game

68

263

Pass Yards Per Att.

8.6

7.3

Pass Yards Allowed

160.67

108.67

Pass Yards Allowed/Att.

6.25

8.0

Yards Per Play

6.3

5.5

Yards Per Play Allowed

4.9

5.1

Points Per Game

32

35.3

Points Allowed Per Game

20.7

15.7

Neither team has played a very difficult schedule, but I think ours has been tougher. According to Sagarin, we have played the 75th hardest schedule, and they have played the 114th. So you can take a lot of their stats with a grain of salt. I think it is noteworthy that we have a substantially better margin in terms of yards per play and yards per play allowed, and that is against a tougher schedule.

Let’s take a look at the recruiting ratings for the past few years, which is supposed to show talent. But of course, the past two weeks, the team that is substantially less talented according to this analysis has lost. So take it for what its worth.

2007

2008

2009

2010

GT

NCS

GT

NCS

GT

NCS

GT

NCS

Best

81

79

80

83

80

79

80

81

Top 5

79.4

78

78

80.6

79.4

78.2

79

79.4

Top 10

78.5

75.4

77.3

79.3

78.8

77.7

78.2

78.5

Avg.

75.65

72.65

76.53

76.58

76.85

75.3

77.06

76.2

Total Players

20

17

15

19

21

27

16

18

These are surprisingly even, but as I said before, the correlation of this junk to who wins the game has not been high so far.

My goals for the game are as follows, and remember, I aim high:

Offense:

400 yards rushing

100 yards passing

At least 42 points.

No more than one turnover.

Defense:

No more than 350 total yards.

No more than 21 points.

Force at least 2 turnovers.

Two things. First of all I have no goal for sacks this week. Wilson is such a good scrambler that I dont necessarily want to sack him. As long as we pressure him so he doesnt have time to settle down, and then we contain him so he doesnt kill us running, we will be fine. Also, forcing turnovers will be tough since Wilson throws so few picks (not a single one on the year so far) but this defense is supposed to force them, and I think its about time we see some.

There you have it. If we show up and play like we can, I think it will be an easy win. That’s not really a knock on N.C. St., they are a good team. They just play a style that is very good for us on both sides of the ball.

Can’t wait to see what happens. As a side note, my quick review won’t be up right after the game like usual, because I will be at this game and won't have access to a computer right after. I know everyone is very depressed at that news.

As always, Let’s Go Jackets!

Week 4 Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though those are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

Last week I went 2 for 3 on free money. NC St. and Stanford covered pretty easily (they really should stop letting west coast teams schedule home games against east coast teams at 8:15 pacific time…) but Maryland forgot to show up.

I went 1 for 2 on solid bets. Arizona, or the Riz as I call them, may in fact be pretty good. But Texas covered without too much trouble. That maybe should have been “free money”.

Once again my toss ups appeared to in fact be toss ups. GT and Clemson covered, but FSU decided to show up this time, VT somehow covered, and Duke, well, why did I pick Duke? That’s my own fault. 2 for 5.

So far on the season:

Free Money

5 for 7

Solid Bets

6 for 10

Toss Ups

3 for 9

Total

14 for 26

Clearly, if you went to Vegas and just put 10,000 down on each of my “free money” bets every week, you would have a pretty good year. (The previous sentence should in no way be read as guaranteeing anything in any way, or even advising you to make any bets at all. Any money you lose is your own fault. I accept no liability for any misplaced reliance on your part.)

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

Miami is favored by 3.5 against Pitt. They will cover that. The Canes looked pretty good against Ohio St. for parts of the game anyway, and I think Pitt is very overrated. Miami has had two weeks to let that embarrassing national tv loss simmer, and I think they come out wild eyed and overwhelm the Panthers.

Alabama is favored at Arkansas by 7.5. Take Bama. Big. Don’t assume Arkansas is any good just because they won at UGA, and don’t forget the SEC West is a one horse race. Petrino is good enough to give Saban problems if he had a running game. He doesn’t.

North Carolina is a half point dog to Rutgers. Why do they do half points again? Teams can’t tie, so this is exactly the same thing as a pick em. You are just picking who wins, why don’t they call it that? Anyway, UNC covers by a lot. Rutgers = not very good.

Georgia is a half point dog to Miss. St. Read that again and then bet everything you have on UGA. Richt doesn’t lose these kind of games. UGA actually plays better on the road. And, even though both teams have lost two in a row, only the UGA dawgs are in a must win. Miss. St. still doesn’t know what “must win” means, because 4-8 in Starkville isn’t that big of a deal.

Solid Bets:

Florida St. by 17.5 over Wake Forest. Take the Noles. I know that Wake Forest doesn’t still have that ridiculous win streak over Florida St. going, but I think the karma from whoever sold their soul to the devil to allow Wake to enjoy that streak is still coming around. This will be a blowout, which would be rare for an ACC team over a Grobe coached Wake team. But its coming.

VT at BC. BC is getting 3.5 points. Take the Eagles. They will have a chance to win, but I think if VT wins it will be by only field goal. On paper the Hokies should win handily, but we know that BC always looks terrible on paper. Fortunately for the boys from Chestnut Hill, they play the games on grass.

GT favored by 8.5 at home against NC St. GT covers with a comfortable 14-17 point win. I’ll tell you why in the NC St. preview that I’ll post later tonight.

Auburn wins by more than 2.5 at home against the Lame Flops. Still not convinced the shamecocks are necessarily any good. Or Auburn for that matter.

LSU beats the pants of WVU at home. They’ll cover 8.5.

Toss-Ups:

Maryland favored by 10.5 against FIU. Who cares? I’ll take FIU just for laughs.

Duke favored by 6.5 against Army. See: Maryland above. I’ll take Duke, because I am determined to bet on Duke once and win.

I think 17.5 is a good spread for Boise over Oregon St., so this is a toss up. I’ll take Boise.

Starting this week I am ending all of my weekly pick articles with two original Joshua Nesbitt jokes, inspired by nesbitt4heisman.com. There is a wall there and GT fans post Nesbitt jokes in the form of the Chuck Norris/Tim Tebow jokes. Feel free to rate these in the comment section, and/or vote on which one you like better:

1: Joshua Nesbitt’s strength coach once told him to keep lifting weights even when it hurts, because “pain is just weakness leaving the body”. Joshua immediately rammed him with his shoulder and knocked the coach unconscious. You see, Joshua has no idea what pain is, and he does not like to be confused.

2: Joshua Nesbitt does not have a threshold for pain. He has a guest house for the SOB.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Week 3 Review - North Carolina

Overall, I would say we played a good game, but not a great one. The offense carried us in the first half, and then it was a team effort in the second half, with both units helping the other at various times. The most important thing is that we got back to our winning ways and made the necessary plays with the game on the line. That was a welcome change from the Kansas game, where we threw away a very winnable game with our second half performance. Of course, we probably shouldn’t have been in a close game with Kansas in the first place, but once there, I would like to see us tough out the win.

Let’s take a look at the breakdown by position:

Quarterbacks: Nesbitt is still the man. He threw the ball really well and made several plays out of pretty much nothing, including a few of his trademark third down runs (“oh we didn’t block anybody, well I don’t care, 4 yards isn’t too far to carry three defensive linemen…”). He did have a shaky third quarter, not looking on the play were Roddy fell down and pitching the ball to air. And then he looked hesitant to pitch for a few drives, although Wright dropping a good pitch on the very next possession probably contributed to that and was not Nesbitt’s fault. He righted the ship with a really good play buying time and finding Roddy on third and 11 to set up the tying TD. Overall, I will give him an 8 out of 10.

Offensive Line: We looked pretty good. In my opinion, we won the battle up front. It is difficult to say how good that is, since it is too early to tell exactly how good UNC’s depleted defensive line is. However, given how well they have recruited and how well they played LSU, I think it is pretty safe to say that their defensive line is at least pretty good. Their linebackers are unquestionably really good. In the last two years, there have not been many games where our offensive line won the battle against a pretty good defensive front. Thus far, on the season, our offensive line play has been consistent with my hope that we would be better this year. I would like to see more consistency, but to this point the offensive line has shown an ability to get a pretty good push every game. I will give them a 6 out of 10 (most of the past 30 games under Coach Johnson I would have given the O line something more like a 4 or 3, or even lower some games).

Running Backs: Much better game for this group in terms of blocking. However, just like the offensive line, there needs to be more consistency. They seemed to take a few series off, in the third quarter especially, but when they blocked well, we hit some big runs. As far as running, I thought Allen had his best game yet, Orwin only got one carry but showed good speed in taking it 73 yards to the house, and Peeples had a couple of uncharacteristic tough runs. He fought for extra yards enough to make me think maybe I am being too hard on him. But its only one game, so I won’t jump to any conclusions that he is improved just yet. Overall, I will give this group a 6 out of 10 as well.

Wide Receivers: They get a 6 out of 10 almost by default. Blocking was ok, and they did not get much of a chance to do anything. Hill had one pass thrown to him and that is all I remember. We only threw four times and at least 2 of them were to Roddy. Hill also had a nice run on a reverse on 3rd and 7, and on his one catch, a quick toss to him in the flat, he ran for 12 yards and made two men miss.

Defensive Line: Needs to get much better. Again, they played pretty well early in drives but seemed to get tired way too fast. UNC had very little success on running plays very early in the game, but that gave way to some 8 to 12 yard runs all too soon, and in the end we let another opposing running back rush for 100 yards. We did an ok job getting pressure for parts of the game, and Izaan Cross picked up a huge sack and huge pass breakup on the final drive. But still, we need more consistent play, and just flat out better play, from these boys if we are going to make a run at ACC title, and beat UGA, which is arguably more important given the ACC’s credibility at this point. I will say 3 out of 10 for now.

Linebackers: Ok game. They got pressure on blitzes somewhat consistently, and did some good things in coverage, but still too many missed tackles. They were a big part of the improvement in the second half that shut UNC out on its final five drives though, so that brings them up to a 5 out 10 in my book. Probably would have given them a 3 along with the D line if they hadn’t started making some sure handed tackles on third down to stop those second half drives.

Secondary: Only real problem here was Isaiah Johnson’s breakdown on the 52 yard TD, and that’s forgivable since he is a true freshman. It is somewhat questionable why we are starting a true freshman since our depth chart lists several more experienced players who you would think would be pretty good back there, but I guess he is our best safety. We could have had an interception that we dropped, and we picked up a silly pass interference penalty on the last drive, on 2nd and 18, and the secondary had the same tackling problems as everyone else, so I will leave them down at a 4 out of 10.

Special Teams: Important part of the game, and I don’t mean to leave it out, but not much that I can remember really happened of note this game on special teams. Kickoff coverage was ok, our returns were ok except that Orwin fumbled one and went nowhere, and we had a block in the back on one. Nobody punted enough to really talk about it. I will call it a 5 out of 10.

Here is a look at the box score:

Georgia Tech

UNC

Rush Yards

372

143

Yards Per Carry

5.9

4.5

Pass Yards

76

209

Yards Per Attempt

19.0

8.4

Yards Per Play

6.7

6.2

Points

30

24

You can see that we beat them in every category except for total passing yards, but we did outgain them altogether by 96 yards. Our advantages here are not huge, but in my opinion they are enough to show we were the better team on the day.

Let’s take a look at my goals for the game from last week’s preview:

Defense:

At least 3 sacks.

I think we only got one. We had several good blitzes, but must tackle better

Force at least one turnover.

We forced one, and also had one given to us

No more than 350 yards.

Off by 2 yards, as they had 352 total.

No more than 17 points.

Gave this up in the first half alone, but held down the fort in the second to keep them to only 24.

Offense:

At least 400 yards.

Easy. 448 yards.

At least 24 points.

Got this pretty comfortably, by the end of the third quarter.

No more than 1 turnover.

Exactly one turnover, although some silly fumbles could have made it 2 or 3

Better execution (subjectively judged by me).

I think we passed here, but we still have plenty of room to improve.

Last week I did a play by play analysis, but I think that was too much work for too little benefit. This week we are experimenting with a drive by drive break down.

First Drive – UNC

Drive start at 25 after ok kick coverage but poor tackling.

We made it tough on them at first, just like Kansas. We forced third down on each of the first two sets of downs. The first time we stopped a run for nothing then allowed a quick tight end pass for 5. On third and 5, we blitzed two inside and got zero pressure, allowing Yates to roll out and hit a 7 yard out. Not terrible defense, but a better blitz would have bee nice.

On the second set, we blew up a running play but poor tackling prevented a huge loss, and instead the running back only lost 2. Then we played very soft coverage and gave the tight end an easy 7, before a really good throw on third and five, again to the tight end, converted. Better tackling and more aggression on second and long would be nice.

The next two sets of downs we appeared to get tired. I don’t know what is going on. We cant possibly be tired this fast. But they ran right at us, converting two first downs without facing a third down. Two runs of nine yards were the problem. We got pushed back too easily and didn’t tackle well again.

After that, they picked up first and five, after a penalty on us, with a quick wide receiver screen, and then on first down from our 12 gained an easy five running straight ahead. Finally, we stiffened, playing two straight ahead runs like we really wanted to keep them out of the end zone. Encouraging to see after we ushered Kansas into the end zone repeatedly last week.

Overall, we made it tough at first, then let them gain about 40 yards way too easily, but at least we didn’t give up a TD.

First Drive – GT

Drive starts at 20 after touchback.

We toss right to Roddy and block nobody, he fights for a yard and a half.

Here is where this drive gets fun. I think (can’t be sure because I was not in the press box) that our coaching staff made a key adjustment between second and third down

On second down, we brought in a lineman in place of the right side A back. We also lined up two receivers to the left. This means we can only motion an A back from the left to the right. So we are tossing right, triple option right, or running some type of counter option left, or else we are passing. We go with counter option left, where the A back starts right, and at the snap turns around and blocks, while Nesbitt hesitates then goes left, and Allen is the pitch man. Both of the linemen on the left end went inside their defensive end, trying to block the middle linebacker and the backside linebacker (the one to the right since the play was going left). Sealing off the pursuit like this typically will open up a decent hole for Nesbitt to keep, but depending on how they play it, the read may be to pitch.

On this play, they were playing us inside out. By that I mean that the guys on the outside, the end and outside linebacker, take the inside runners, Nesbitt and the dive man Allen if the play calls for Allen to dive. The middle linebacker rotates out to the take the pitch man on the outside. Given their defense, we ran a poor blocking scheme. Its very difficult for the linemen to cut inside the end and block the middle linebacker when he is trying to get outside. The lineman can really only make that block if the middle linebacker is trying to hold the middle and is waiting on Nesbitt. However, even with the middle linebacker running free, Allen picked up 5 yards.

On third and 3, I think our coaching staff made an immediate adjustment to that blocking scheme. We went back to our base set up, with two A backs. This time we triple optioned left, but now the outside lineman went around the end to the outside, leaving him in much better position to seal the middle linebacker, which he did easily. The outside linebacker and end took Allen and then Nesbitt, as they had on the previous play, but the middle linebacker was blocked too well and could not get to Orwin after he caught the pitch.

That meant that either the corner or the safety on that side had to stop him. Roddy, the other A back, went outside to block the corner, and the receiver, I believe Melton, came inside to take the safety. We run that blocking scheme on the edge a good portion of the time because it gives both blockers a good angle to seal their men. They did so, not perfectly, but well enough to let Orwin sneak through, and of course he took it 73 yards to the house. By the way, that was Orwin’s only carry of the day, which I believe to be an all time GT record for average yards per carry for a game. 73. Pretty good. (totally made that all time record up, but how would it not be the record? 73 yards per carry?)

Essentially what happened on that play is the coaching staff identified how they were going to play the option, and in particular were able to identify which three guys were taking the pitch man. So they dialed up a blocking scheme that would give our blockers the best possible angles to block those three players. It didn’t really matter if we sacrificed the angles against the other defenders, because if there is no one to take the pitch man, the ball will probably end up there. Unless of course they switched up their defense. But they ran the same thing, I would assume hoping that we would not be able to adjust that fast. Obviously, our staff won that little battle.

Second Drive – UNC

Drive started just short of the 25 after an ok kick return, and resulted in a pretty easy touchdown. We allowed a quick first down on a wide receiver screen. On the ensuing first down play, we blitzed well and should have had an easy sack, but missed due to a poor tackle. The pressure forced a bad pass that we had a good chance to intercept, but we dropped it. They gained 11 on second down with another pretty easy pass and run to the tight end. We stopped a toss to the left on the next first down, but gave up a 50 yard touchdown on the next play due to a busted coverage. The receiver ran a good route, faking a deep out pattern and actually running an out and up. Isaiah Johnson, our true freshman safety who must be pretty good because he won the starting job, bit heavily on the fake, and the receiver ran right by him. I like Johnson’s aggression there, because if the receiver is running the deep out, we don’t want to give up an easy 15 yard pass and catch, but he has to learn how to defend that play while still protecting against the possibility that the apparent deep out is a fake.

The out and up UNC ran there is a called a double move. Johnson bit on the first move, the out, and thus got beat by the second move, cutting down the sideline to the end zone. Defending that is pretty simple. You have to turn you hips so that you can come forward but still turn quickly enough to follow the receiver if he does in fact turn up. He also did not need to break forward as decisively as he did, which made the double move that much more effective. All of that will come with experience. Hopefully it comes soon, because Johnson cost us Kansas’ first TD with a busted coverage as well. I am a little surprised that, given his lack of experience and the problems its causing, he is our starter. He is a good athlete and a good tackler, and I guess Groh thinks he gives us the best chance to play good defense. Here’s to hoping he doesn’t blow anymore coverages and give up any more easy long touchdowns.

Second Drive – GT

It is impossible for me to know this for sure, without asking Paul Johnson, but it did appear on this drive that we simplified the offense, perhaps in an effort to make the drive last a little longer and give the defense a rest. To this point, the defense had been on the field for one fairly long UNC drive, and one medium drive, while their only rest had been the 3 plays it took us to score the previous drive. I say this mostly because our blocking scheme on every play for this drive except one was simply to have every blocker run straightforward. No more of the blocking scheme chess moves like the previous drive.

UNC played us pretty much the same way. They still used their very good middle linebacker, Bruce Carter, to take the pitch man, and let their defensive end and outside linebacker take Allen and Nesbitt. However, it appeared that Carter was hesitating and taking a look at Allen and Nesbitt before pursuing. I suppose since he is such a great and fast linebacker (he is one of UNC’s probable first round picks, and, in 2008 in Chapel Hill, he ran down Dwyer from behind, albeit it took him 80 yards and he only caught Dwyer as he hit the goalline, but still, Carter is very fast) UNC thought it best to give him more than one assignment.

I think our staff picked up on that on the first drive. After a 3 yard dive play, we triple optioned left and pitched to Peeples, who ran for 18 yards. The strange part about that play is that Allen, after not getting the dive hand off, continued downfield and was able to cut block Carter. This appeared to be a called blocking scheme, not just Allen throwing a spontaneous block. The only way Allen would be able to block Carter is if we knew in advance that he was not going to pursue the pitch man horizontally right away. Allen was not able to cut him all the way to the ground, but he got enough of him that Carter couldn’t get back into the play and that, along with a good A back block on that side, sprung Peeples.

We ran the dive for 3 more yards again with the simple straight ahead blocking, and then triple optioned to the short side of the field. However, on this option, we went back to having the outside linemen cut outside and come back in to seal Carter. This worked like a charm again, springing Peeples for another 15 yards or so.

By this point we were at their 20 yard line, and we called the first pass play of the game, resulting in an easy TD. This drive was fun to watch, as we easily moved the ball 63 yards without ever facing a third down. Two touchdowns in 3 minutes total time of possession for the quarter. That’s about as well as our offense can hum.

Third Drive – UNC

This drive we played pretty well and came very close to stopping them several times. We forced three third downs, but didn’t execute well enough on those plays to get off the field.

On the first drive, after a four yard run and then good coverage forcing an incompletion, we let them easily convert third and 6 with a wide open 11 yard pass to the tight end. We followed with two easy runs for a first down, but then held them to only 5 yards on two more runs, forcing third and five. Here we rushed four, with a pretty weak blitz, sending one inside linebacker straight ahead. That put no pressure on Yates. We were in man coverage, and Jefferson could not quite stay with their running back running a wheel route down the sideline. It was ok coverage, making the pass tough, but it was well executed for about 20 yards.

From our 20 yard line now, we held them to 4 yards on two runs, setting up third and six. This time we brought a much better blitz, sending a couple of linebackers and a safety. The safety came on a slight delay, and got around the corner unimpeded. Yates did a little shimmy to dodge him for a split second, long enough to flip a pass to his tight end that we almost broke up. We also had another guy hitting him immediately upon the catch, so I don’t have a huge problem with this play. Just good execution by them.

From there, they were at our 4 yard line, and two pretty easy runs scored a TD. We actually looked better on this drive on defense than we had to this point, but didn’t make the plays to get a better result.

Third Drive – GT

This drive started with Orwin showing just how hard he is to tackle on the kick off return. He got hit at the fifteen but didn’t go down and managed to dance all the way out to midfield, but two blocks in the back brought us back to our 8 yard line (only one can be accepted by UNC, but we committed two).

Not much happened on this drive really. They continued letting Bruce Carter float from his middle linebacker spot, basically assigning him to the pitch man but asking him to keep an eye on the other players as well. Key play on this drive was a third and seven setup by a false start on second down. We ran a reverse to Hill who made the first down easily. From there, we ran mostly dives and Nesbitt keepers, getting about 4-5 yards at a time.

Our offensive line got a good push most of the drive, until inside their 15 we had two costly errors. First on second and 5, we missed a couple of blocks on the inside, and arguably Nesbitt missed his read and should have given to Allen, which resulted in a one yard loss, setting up third and 6 from their 8 or so. Then we ran a counter option, and we might have scored except the lineman who pulled completely whiffed a cut block on the linebacker, leaving too many guys for Nesbitt to either run past or pitch around. So we settle for a field goal.

That ended the half, which was about as symmetrical of a half as you can get in football. Both teams had the ball three times, both drove down inside the ten and got a field goal once, and scored TD’s on the other two. 17 – 17.

HALFTIME

Fourth Drive – GT

Coming out of half time, I expected them to try to make some adjustments regarding our pitches. We did not pitch as much on the last drive of the half, but on the first two we had three triple option pitches gash them for about 115 yards. I was curious to see how they would adjust on our first drive.

I didn’t really get to see. We ran five consecutive dive plays, with Allen getting about 6 or 7 yards on each of the first four, then Lyons getting 5 on the last one. On second and five we optioned, and Roddy slipped and fell. Nesbitt pitched it before he really looked, and thus didn’t see that Roddy was not there, producing an ugly fumble. UNC fell on it at our 47 yard line.

This play hurt to watch on DVR mostly because I saw for the first time that we fooled the linebackers badly. This was a counter option right, and we used a sneaky move. Roddy line up on the line, not set back like normal. I think this fooled their defense into thinking we could not triple option right bc we had no pitch man. Of course it might also have been why Roddy fell down, because he had more ground than usual to cover. In any case, the pitch was there, and the replay from behind Nesbitt showed that Roddy might have gone 50 yards to the house. Would have been a foot race with the safety from the other side of the field to see if he scored or not.

Fourth Drive – UNC

Horrible drive here. The defense basically just laid down. Maybe they were surprised to be on the field, after the turnover. Maybe they were disheartened by the turnover. I don’t know, but they were rested. They had been off the field for the last ten minutes of the first half, half time, and then the first 5 plays of the second half. This drive was inexcusable. They ran the ball twice, and thanks to pushing us off the ball easily and breaking tackles, they were at our 5 in two plays, and they ran in easily on the next play. We showed zero toughness and heart here.

Fifth Drive – GT

Hard to tell from this drive if they did anything to adjust to our pitches. On the first play, it appeared that Carter was moving faster outside, which resulted in Nesbitt keeping for five yards. Then we hit a dive play for about 15. At least one thing they appeared to adjust was to have their defense aggressively push forward rather than trying to pursue the play horizontally. This adjustment probably allowed us to get that 15 yard dive play, but it blew up the next option play, although Nesbitt still fought for three yards after being hit behind the line of scrimmage.

They jumped the option again on third down and 5, but we probably get the first down anyway if Wright catches the pitch, which appeared to be fine. But he fumbled it backwards. He did fall on it, but we lost about ten yards and had to punt.

Fifth Drive – UNC

Down by seven and with the offense sputtering thanks to pitching miscues, we desperately need to make something happen here. Finally we do. Good coverage on first forces an incompletion. They run for 6, but on third and four we jump the slant route to the near side that Yates wanted, and eventually pressure him into scrambling for a yard. Big possession there.

Sixth Drive – GT

A poor drive all the way around. We got a lucky break on the first play when they roughed the passer. The refs wanted to call roughing the linebacker on Nesbitt, but then realized that wasn’t against the rules, so they called roughing the passer. After that we ran four consecutive option plays, and blocked them all poorly. We missed blocks on the edge and the O line. It did appear that UNC’s defense was moving more decisively and aggressively, but the plays were still there if we had blocked ok. To make matters worse, we probably still convert 4th and 3 if Nesbitt pitches, but I think he had made up his mind he wanted to keep it, which usually is a good decision, but they appeared to key on Nesbitt, I would assume anticipating that he is our #1 option for must have short yardage. And they were right.

Sixth Drive – UNC

Very lucky break, as on first down Yates gets the ball knocked out of his hands by the fullback’s hip. We didn’t force it, but we will take it. Boom.

Seventh Drive – GT

They start this drive off the same way, aggressively swarming to the edge, and so do we, making poor blocks and bad reads. On first down Nesbitt miss Lyons on the dive for a decent gain, and instead we lost a couple yards. On second Nesbitt keeps for not much. On third Nesbitt decides to just make something happen, scrambling and eventually finding Roddy with that nice floater, and then Roddy rambles down to the 5 yard line.

From there, we punch it in without much trouble. That pass play was key because we were really starting to lose confidence and rhythm on offense. Our timing appeared to be off, and we were not firing of the ball and really diving into our blocks.

Seventh Drive – UNC

More good defense. On first, we get excellent penetration, which stopped the run for a loss of one yard, but probably also caused a holding penalty, which we accept. On first and 20, they complete a short pass for 6 yards. Then good coverage forces a throw away, and on third and fourteen we got good pressure only rushing four, forced a short dump to the tight end, and that came up 8 yards short. Another big three and out.

Eighth Drive – GT

I think our coaching staff figured out what UNC was doing, focusing on the perimeter and aggressively sending their ends and outside linebackers forward, and responded by calling two straight dive plays. Its possible that we simply optioned and Nesbitt made the right read, but I think CPJ just told Nesbitt to give it to Allen. Two dives got us an easy first down, and also probably calmed down UNC’s defense, allowing Nesbitt to get the corner the next play for about 30 yards.

After this we really shot ourselves in the foot though. On second down, Allen took the dive handoff down to the 5 yard line, which would have been first and goal, but they called holding. So 2nd and 18. BUT we option right and the pitch appears wide open for a big gain, but Nesbitt drops the ball and is forced to fall on it for no gain. We don’t convert third and 18 and have to settle for a field goal when we could have gone up by a TD.

Eighth Drive – UNC

Another quick drive. They throw twice to the tight end, for about 6 yards each time, getting a pretty easy first down. However, at the end of the second play, we knock the ball loose and fall on it. Good, active hands to force that turnover. This is supposed to be a style of defense that forces lots of turnovers. We haven’t seen too much of that this year so far, but a big one here.

Now the offense takes over at UNC’s 45 with a chance to seal the game with a TD.

Ninth Drive – GT

The drive starts well enough, with good blocking helping us pick up 6 yards. But then poor blocking and a poor cut by Peeples on a toss gets nothing. We almost threw away this drive on third and four, with more poor blocking, and UNC again correctly reading that Nesbitt is our go to guy in key third down situations. But Nesbitt is our go to guy for a reason, and he showed it here. He breaks an arm tackle and then basically falls forward through 3 more arm tackles and gets the first down.

Another toss, a dive play, and a Nesbitt keeper all get about 4 yards and another first down. Mediocre blocking on all three. Three more plays of mediocre blocking bring up 4th and inches from the 15, and this was the key false start. I am not sure what we were doing. We appeared to be trying to draw them offsides, and we got a little movement. I think our O lineman jumped on purpose to try and force the ref to call them offsides, because the defense can be penalized for drawing the offense off. No matter what though, I dislike this call. Motioning the A backs like we do, and then having them stop by the B back to try and draw the other team offsides with a hard snap count was too fancy here. It was only inches. We should have just lined up and run the play. At least in my opinion.

So we settle for a field goal when we could have all but sealed the game with a TD.

Ninth Drive – UNC

With 6 minutes remaining, this would be UNC’s last drive of the game. After a penalty on the kickoff, it started at their 8. They surprised us with two running plays, since I guess we thought they would be passing to conserve time, and made it out to our 25. From there, we broke up a pass, then let the tight end catch an 8 yard pass to set up third and two. Cross batted down the next pass at the line, forcing 4th and 2, which they barely converted with a pass into the flat. Good tackle, almost got them short and ended the game there.

Then Cross came up with a big sack, bringing up the 2nd and 18 that we threw away with a silly pass interference play. Very clumsy coverage, and I don’t think the pass was going to be caught anyway. But it gave them a first down.

Yates scrambled for 9 and they ran for the first on second down. By now they were at our 45. They tried a reverse that we snuffed out and stopped for a loss of 2. Yates was forced to scramble on second due to good coverage and we hammered him for a gain of 2, knocking him out of the game and putting in their backup Renner, who threw incomplete into coverage on third down. Yates came back for the 4th down. We got ok pressure, and forced Yates to leave the pocket. He could not find anyone downfield, so dumped it to his running back who we swarmed five yards short.

I really like our defense on this drive. We made it very hard for them numerous times. We didn’t react poorly to their first two plays netting 17 yards. We didn’t lose our edge when they barely converted 4th and 2. We didn’t give anything up when they converted 2nd and 18 thanks to pass interference. They marched into our territory and we kept fighting. To be fair, you expect your defense to have a lot of fight and intensity in the fourth quarter with the game on the line, but we showed a lot of physical and mental toughness as well. We made it very difficult for them the whole drive, and eventually stopped them 45 yards short of the end zone.

And then we did a good job running out the clock. Nerveracking, but a good win. We need to get better all around, but I expect both Johnson and Groh to make their units better as the season goes along. Assuming UNC is at least a pretty good team, I think we can build on this game.

Go Jackets!