Stats

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Week 13 Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

This week:

2 for 3 on free money. So much for Miami beating VT. They outplayed them thoroughly for a half. How was I supposed to know Miami was going to look real good but then underachieve? Ok, you’re right. Don’t answer that. Clemson and Arkansas covered.

2 for 4 on solid bets. Ohio State and FSU both covered comfortably. GT and BC both barely lost. I think I got hosed.

Tossups were 2 for 2 this week. A&M and N.C. State both covered. I’ll take that. Although both might have been a little lucky. I did call them tossups after all.

So far on the season:

Free Money

19 for 38

Solid Bets

23 for 49

Toss Ups

18 for 33

Total

60 for 120

Hey! Back to .500. I’m no longer getting beaten by what you would expect from a small child picking based on which color he likes better… I’m tied with him. Fabulous.

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

I am boldly taking UVA to lose by less than 23.5 to VT. They aren’t very good, and VT pretty much owns this series, but I think London is changing the attitude in Charlottesville. Maybe. We’ll see. Go Hoos.

Going with N.C. State again. They are 2.5 point favorites at Maryland. I think they get it done and win, and thus win the Atlantic. They are the better team. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that Maryland may have lost a little bit of their edge now that they are out of the race.

Solid Bets:

Alabama, at home, is favored by 4.5 against unbeaten #2 Auburn. Kind of a slap in the face to the War Eagles. I mean, they should be favored right? Still not sold on these Tigers. I think the Tide covers. Poor Auburn.

Arizona is pretty good, but Oregon is really good at home. I think they win in a blowout. Which is handy, because that’s what they need to cover 19.5. I am taking the Ducks.

I will fall for the Miami trap once again. I wanted to take South Florida to lose by less than 11.5, but I just can’t do it. Miami can find ways to throw away games with the best of them, but lately they have played pretty well against the lesser Florida schools.

North Carolina is favored by 9.5 at Duke. Duke is better than they have been, but I still think UNC covers this. We played a pretty bad game and would have covered this last week against Duke.

Thought about trying to jinx the three SEC/ACC rivalry games this week, and pick the SEC team as a lock. But that hasn’t really been working, and these games just aren’t locks. Especially GT as a big underdog. I mean UGA could easily blow us out, but if we come to play I think we’ll cover that. Anyway, this paragraph is really for FSU, and they will beat UF by more than 2.5. Boom. Go ACC.

Clemson is a 2.5 point dog to USC at home. I think Clemson, after having to hear all about last year for 365 days, has something for em in Death Valley. Take the Tigers.

GT is a 12.5 point underdog to UGA in Athens. I think we come out like we did against VT, very ready to play. We may lose the game, but I think it goes down to the wire and we cover the spread, at the least.

Oklahoma St. is a 2.5 point favorite at home against their big brother, Oklahoma. I like the Cowboys this year. I think the Pokes get it done.

Toss-Ups:

Boise St. is favored by 14.5 at Nevada. Nevada is pretty good. Maybe even really good. But for some reason I think Boise takes this one. Fresno is not a bad team and they just got done beating them 51-0. And that was with two uncharacteristic early turnovers. Take the Broncos.

Arkansas is actually favored by 3.5 against LSU, because they are at home I can only assume. But I am going with another upset of sorts, and taking Arkansas to cover.

If Vandy and Wake Forest play a game in Nashville and nobody checks the final score to see who won, did it really take place? Vandy is favored by 5.5. I really couldn’t care less about this game. I’ll take Wake, because I think Vandy wins the battle of who can be worse.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Week 12 Review - Duke

This was a very ugly game. Mercifully, unlike some other ugly games we have played this season, it was at least an ugly win. However, I was not prepared to see GT need so much help to beat Duke at home. They fumbled. They kept a GT drive alive with a personal foul after they stopped us on a third down. They failed to score a TD from the 4 yard line right before the half. They threw an awful pass that gave us a pick 6, and probably gave us a 14 point swing. Their FG kicker, who had made something like 18 straight FG’s, missed twice late in the game. And they only lost by 10.

To be fair, we made our usual number of mistakes as well. For a while, it seemed neither team wanted to win. We could have, and probably should have, been up 21-3 about 10 minutes into the game. We fumbled. We committed silly penalties. We blocked very poorly. We allowed an atrocious faked punt.

The punt coverage team actually deserves its own paragraph. It was awful. We, apparently, were not even trying to rush the punter. He had so much extra time that twice he took an extra step or two, presumably to get closer to the line of scrimmage and allow his coverage team to get a head start. One would think that with such a poor rush, we must be running back to block and set up a return. Well, we never appeared to have a return set up either. Surely then, since we are not bothering to rush the punter, and we are not setting up a return, we must be watching for a fake. Well, no, not really. Not at all actually. Our return man, Tarrant, was the guy who actually made the tackle on the fake. Meaning that our other 10 players did not notice the punter running until Tarrant had time to come from 40 yards down field. To make it even worse, most teams are much, much more likely to fake punts around midfield than they are in their own territory. To put it mildly, the punt coverage needs a little work.

I have been saying all season that its common for relatively young teams to make mental mistakes and not play very efficiently. And that we should not necessarily be concerned for future years. Well, it should at the very least be a little concerning when your 11th game of the season is one of your sloppiest. Its one thing to make silly mental mistakes due to inexperience. But you should at least improve as the season progresses.

Instead, Stephen Hill negates our first TD with a block in the back that was absolutely unnecessary (he could have left the field and Allen scores on that play). I know that he didn’t really hit him, he was trying to get out of the way, and it probably shouldn’t have been called. He only hit him, or almost hit him, at all because he was pursuing the Duke player, and the Duke defender stopped abruptly as Allen cut back. I don’t care. Hill needs to realize that he is really only going to be useful as a blocker in that situation if Allen does cut back, and he should be anticipating the cut back. If he had, he would not have been sprinting, and instead would have been ready to seal the defender as he stopped and tried to cut back himself. Instead, because he was sprinting out of control, he almost ran over him, and he gave the referee a chance to miss the call.

Later, on a kickoff, Duke tries to hand us a TD by muffing the catch. Our players I guess don’t know the rule that you can’t advance a muff. Falling on the ball is the right move there, but of course we try to scoop it up, end up knocking it back into their end zone and then not recovering it at all.

Then we drive to Duke’s 10 yard line and lose a fumble because our WR knew to lower his head to brace for contact, but somehow forget to wrap the ball up. Hmm… Trying to think of a good analogy. Anybody ever see that Seinfeld episode where Jerry buys the fancy lock for his door, and then gets robbed because Kramer leaves the door wide open? “It has only one flaw, the door… must be closed!”. Yeah, its kinda like that. We got the head down, but the ball was flailing out there in a chicken wing sort of motion, and basically I saw the fumble coming about 2 seconds before it happened.

Another rather disturbing trend I saw this game was from our running backs. Several times I saw running backs go downfield to block someone, and end up just sort of jogging into space, while (one of) the guy(s) they were presumably supposed to block was making the tackle. On at least 3 or 4 of these plays, the unblocked guy who our blocker ran right by was pretty much the only guy who could make the tackle. Meaning we just turned a possible big gain, or a long TD, into a 1 yard run. I can only assume those are busted assignments. But it looks like they are staring at the guy for a couple seconds as they approach. I don’t understand how they can miss him. Maybe they aren’t supposed to block him, but if they aren’t blocking him, why do they trot into space and end up standing there blocking nobody? At the very least, I am confident there is some combination of busted assignments going on there, and this late in the year we shouldn’t be doing that as often as we are.

There were probably other mistakes. The defense didn’t play great. We had plenty of busted assignments in coverage, and we didn’t exactly appear urgent in trying to pressure the QB. Overall it was just another lackadaisical performance, at least that’s how it appeared, and we made plenty of silly mistakes. We did at least fight back and didn’t give up, but I don’t really want to have to say that after we beat Duke at home. This Duke team is better than some of the pushovers Duke has fielded in recent years, but they still aren’t very good.

Maybe we were looking ahead to UGA? Since VT, we haven’t really had much to play for, unless you count a bowl game. But our players probably assumed they would beat Duke and so we would get to a bowl game. So if you look at it from that perspective, maybe we should have expected a couple of lackadaisical games after the VT loss. The VT game and the 3 previous games were pretty good for us, while we were still in the conference race. We killed ourselves in the one game at Clemson, but played well against UVA, fine against MTSU, and well against VT. 3 out or 4 isn’t bad I guess. Maybe playing UGA will give us something to play for again and re-ignite some of that focus and fire we were starting to get. Or maybe focus isn’t the problem, and we simply aren’t very good. This whole paragraph feels like I am reaching a little too far.

Anyway, here is a look at the game, drive by drive.

GT First Half Drives

Start

Plays

Yards

Yards/

Play

3rd downs converted

4th downs converted

End

Result

Duke 49

7

25

3.6

1 (1 yd)

0

Duke 24

FG

GT 29

11

56

5.1

0

1 (2 yd)

Duke 15

Fumble

Duke 43

4

17

4.3

0

0

Duke 26

FG

GT 22

3

4

1.3

0

0

GT 26

Punt

GT 24

3

9

3

0

0

GT 33

Punt

GT 35

5

24

4.8

0

0

Duke 41

Downs

Not a whole lot to look at here. Interesting that we moved the ball as much as we did only converting one third down. 135 yards, at 4 yards per play, is not bad when it pretty much all comes on first and second down. Not sure what to say about our inability to convert third downs, other than it shows a lack of mental toughness.

Duke First Half Drives

Start

Plays

Yards

Yards/

Play

3rd downs converted

4th downs converted

End

Result

Duke 16

3

-2

-0.7

0

0

Duke 14

Punt

Duke 20

7

46

6.6

0

0

GT 34

FG

Duke 21

3

6

2

0

0

Duke 27

Punt

Duke 20

8

53

6.6

1 (3 yd)

0

GT 27

Fumble

Duke 30

3

-4

-1.3

0

0

Duke 26

Punt

Duke 47

7

53

7.6

0

1 (7 yd)

GT 0

TD

Duke 41

9

55

6.1

1 (4 yd)

0

GT 4

FG

Not atrocious defense, but certainly not very good. We allowed more than 6 yards per play on 4 drives out of only 7. That’s bad. We did at least force two FG’s and a fumble on 3 of those 4, only conceding one TD. But the TD drive was disturbingly easy. We didn’t even force a third down. In other good news, the remaining 3 drives were all 3 and outs. So we got that going for us.

GT Second Half Drives

Start

Plays

Yards

Yards/

Play

3rd downs converted

4th downs converted

End

Result

GT 25

10

48

4.8

0

0

Duke 27

FG

GT 26

9

74

8.2

1 (3 yd)

0

Duke 0

TD

GT 41

4

14

3.5

1 (1 yd)

0

Duke 45

Fumble

GT 20

3

80

26.7

1 (9 yd)

0

Duke 0

TD

GT 37

10

41

4.1

0

0

Duke 22

End Game

Better than the first half, but still breathtakingly inconsistent. We did score TD’s on two of only four drives, if you don’t count the drive where we got deep in their territory but the game ended. We also moved the ball at least 41 yards on every drive except one, and that was a drive ended by a fumble. The only thing I was really disappointed by was the first drive. We come out of the half needing a TD to tie it and get some momentum going, and we put together a good drive. We move the ball easily for a while, but then we can’t finish. That was a chance to show some toughness, and we didn’t do it.

Duke Second Half Drives

Start

Plays

Yards

Yards/

Play

3rd downs converted

4th downs converted

End

Result

Duke 20

8

60

7.5

2 (6,6 yd)

0

GT 20

INT TD

Duke 30

4

22

5.5

0

0

GT 48

Punt

Duke 24

6

76

12.7

1 (3 yd)

0

GT 0

TD

Duke 46

6

38

6.3

0

0

GT 16

FG Miss

Duke 28

8

35

4.4

0

0

GT 37

FG Miss

Not saying much when your best drive defensively is one where they average 5.5 yards per play. But we forced a punt, so that’s something I guess. Other than that, we didn’t do much to stop them. Butler made a great play, but the throw was pretty much a gift. And then they missed some FG’s for us.

Here are the stats for the game:

GT

Duke

Rush Yards

320

109

Yards Per Carry

5.2

4.4

Pass Yards

334

90

Yards Per Attempt

12.9

7.8

Total Yards

410

443

Yards Per Play

5.9

6.5

Points

30

20

Turnovers

2

2

Again, not a whole lot to look at there. Interesting that we can beat them in average yards per rush and average yards per pass, but then lose average yards per play. Not that complicated if you think about it, but still, funny.

Anyway, I say we just chalk this up to a game we won because we made the plays needed to win. It wasn’t pretty. In a lot of ways, we arguably got outplayed. But I am sure our players are having a hard time getting motivated. We had higher goals for this year. We have had problems executing all year. Whatever. As long as motivation is not a problem this coming week, let’s just move on and take the win, and bowl eligilibity.

As always, Let’s Go Jackets!

Thursday, November 18, 2010

Week 12 Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

This week:

Well I guess I was missing something on Alabama Miss. St. I thought that would be a better game. Oh well. I did win the BC bet, so I went 1 for 2 on Free Money

Great week on solid bets. I won Clemson, South Carolina, N.C. St. and Maryland. Strangely, South Carolina won. I am still waiting to see what the chicken curse will do to get even. But that is 4 wins. Ugly pick on North Carolina makes me 4 out of 5.

Terrible prediction on GT as the only tossup. So that’ll be 0 for 1.

So far on the season:

Free Money

17 for 35

Solid Bets

21 for 45

Toss Ups

16 for 31

Total

54 for 111

Slowly getting my numbers back up…

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

Clemson favored by only 13.5 at Wake Forest. Forget about our game with the Deacs. They are bad. Clemson by a lot.

Miami beats VT. Take that to the bank. And they are 2.5 point underdogs at home, so they will win the bet as well.

Arkansas will beat Miss. St. by more than 3.5. You should also take that to the bank, but soon you won’t have to if you don’t want to. I’ve almost finished a new program where you can simply photograph both sides of it and use your iPhone to deposit it. So you don’t actually have to go all the way to the bank if you don’t want to.

Solid Bets:

Boston College is favored by 6.5 at home against UVA. Take the Eagles again. They are on a roll, and I think their defense will lock down UVA. It may take them a while, but they will eventually score enough to win this bet.

Georgia Tech favored by 11.5 over Duke. I am taking the Jackets again. What a homer.

Ohio St. is favored by 3.5 at Iowa. This is tough to pick, but I haven’t been real impressed by Iowa this year. Don’t know why, but I am taking the Buckeyes. When in doubt in the Big Ten, take the Buckeyes.

Florida State favored by 4.5 at Maryland. Friedgen is leading the Terps to a good year, but I still think they are a little overrated. FSU covers this. They do not fear the turtle. Not even a little bit. They just think its cute.

Toss-Ups:

N.C. St. UNC could go either way. The heels are favored by 2.5 at home. I am taking State, I just feel like O’Brien has Davis’ number.

Texas A&M is a 2.5 point underdog at home against Nebraska. Take the Aggies at home, with the 12th man.