There isn't a whole lot to preview about Mercer, as most of you probably know. Can we lose? Well, maybe. We only led Wofford 24-19 in the 4th quarter two years ago. In 2008, we beat Gardner Web by 3 points, preserved with a blocked FG as time expired. Those two teams are roughly at Mercer's level, so I won't say its impossible. But teams like Western Carolina are also at about that level. In the recent past we've generally won these games by 40-50 points. Obviously that's what I think we should expect this week. Although actually, we may want to cheer for a close game, as the two mentioned above occurred in 2008 and 2014, the last two years we beat Georgia. Football sometimes makes very little sense.
Anyway, this post will be primarily a Boston College review. The game was certainly a frustrating one to watch. But I can't say it was all bad. Obviously we won, although it wasn't pretty. The major negative is that the game did very little to assuage lingering concerns about the offense. Specifically, that we still can't block anybody. For now, we are left clinging to hope that Boston College's defense is excellent (as it was last year) and that we will have more success blocking other defensive fronts.
The other major negative is that there really is no reason to think Boston College has much of an offense. And our defense depended mostly upon turnovers and missed field goals to get stops. If we can't force punts against Boston College... well, I guess we are left clinging to hope that their offense is improved. Otherwise, maybe we can't stop anybody.
So what are the positives? Well, the big one is that we won. We found a way to win a game that we easily could have, should have, lost. That alone is a huge change from 2015, where we frequently did the opposite. Adding to this positive is the fact that Boston College is generally a pretty good program. Yes, in the past 5 years they have gone 3-9, 2-10 and 4-8 (with the other two years being 7-6), but before that they were a regular 7-8 win team. Hard to say what their status will be going forward, but the last 3 years they won 7 games, 7 games, and then 3 games. I would suggest this year is likely to be a 6 or 7 win campaign. That would mean they are a decent to pretty good FBS team, and that makes this a perfectly good win. Scrapping out a hard fought game in week 1, in the rain, several time zones away. That's a lot of variables. Obviously, much about this season remains to be seen, but overall, I think the takeaway from this game is positive.
A smaller positive, but certainly not insignificant, is the fact that we managed to execute well enough to get the job done despite poor blocking. Due to both teams running the ball so much, with mixed success, the clock ran all game and made for a very short game in terms of possessions. We only had the ball 9 times, and, again, without blocking well, still managed to move the ball on 4 of those possessions. Two touchdowns, one field goal, and one fumble after driving about 50 yards. The game was very frustrating to watch, but in hindsight, not nearly as terrible as I thought at first.
We will have to see if the blocking improves going forward. This game should provide a good chance to get things sorted out without much resistance, but then Vanderbilt will be a very similar game to Boston College. I don't think their front seven is as nearly as difficult to block, but they are still a good defense and a bad offense. And we know we can make a bad offense look pretty good.
But let's just enjoy the win for now. I'll close with a look back at the first game of each year under Paul Johnson.
In 2008 we looked pretty good against Jacksonville St, and that led to a good year.
In 2009 and 2010 we looked mediocre against Jacksonville St and then SC State. Those games led to a great year and a bad year.
In 2011 we looked fantastic in week 1, blowing out Western Carolina with ruthless efficiency. And that led to a strong start but a fading finish, for an ok to pretty good year.
In 2012, we lost a close game we should have won in Blacksburg, and everyone was frustrated but mostly thought we would be good. Because VT is always good, and that was on the road. Well they ended up not being normal VT that year, and we had a mediocre year, eventually going 7-7 thanks to our "losing team bowl waiver" since we played in the ACC CG.
In 2013 we looked great, murdering Elon, and that led to a mediocre year.
In 2014 we struggled mightily with Wofford (and then Tulane and Ga Southern) before going on to Paul Johnson's best year here.
In 2015 we looked fantastic, taking apart Alcorn St. (and Tulane) before losing 9 of the next 10.
The point of that exercise is to illustrate what most fans already know, but maybe could use a reminder - week 1 doesn't tell you much. Probably for most teams, but certainly GT. This team is going to evolve. Hopefully its more like 2014 than 2011, or certainly 2015. But for now, we are 1-0.
As always, Go Jackets!
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