UVA Preview

Well I botched it up last week.  Didn't get around to posting at all.  I was pretty sure our offense would look a lot like 2016 against Clemson, so I wasn't really excited about analyzing the game.  And I was right.  That front is just really good.  I didn't really even have a major problem with that performance.  Just hard to do much when the other guys are that big and fast. 

Anyway, on to this week.  Charlottesville is not exactly a place GT fans generally remember fondly.  We've only won there twice since 1990.  Fortunately, both have been recent (2009 and 2013) so maybe we are turning that tide.  2011 was an upset loss and 2015 was a game we probably should have won, even though it came during the bad year where everything went wrong and we finished 3-9.  Hopefully we can exorcise some of those memories this weekend.

UVA isn't all that good.  But - and stop me if you've heard this before - they are a mediocre ACC team that is tough to predict.  For example, Duke and Indiana are about the same quality, and UVA beat one at home by 7, and lost to the other at home by 17.  Boise St. is better than Pitt, but UVA went on the road and lost to Pitt by 17, after going on the road and beating Boise by 20.  They also somewhat inexplicably lost by 31 at home to Boston College.  Don't get me wrong, BC is pretty good, and maybe even should have won at UVA, but not by 30. 

So, it'll depend what UVA team shows up tomorrow.  UVA is fairly consistently mediocre.  Not really good at anything, not terrible at anything.  Their offense and defense are both in the 50-80 range according to football outsiders and Massey.  Meaning we have a better offense and a better defense (our offense and defense are ranked in the 15-45 range by those two).  Massey predicts us to win 35-20, and says we have an 87% chance to win.

I think that's about right.  We should win.  We are better and it really isn't that close.  But, this is the ACC with its wheel of destiny, and we are GT (never really a dominant team that can chalk up easy wins).  So we better be ready to fight for it.  But if normal UVA shows up, we shouldn't have too much trouble.

I predict a close game for about a half, and then a comfortable GT win.  As always, let's go Jackets!