Duke Preview

Well that was a thoroughly satisfying game.  I don't think its really sunk in for me yet that we beat both Virginia Tech and Miami.  I had really gotten tired of losing to both, especially in the incredibly heartbreaking ways we kept doing it.  2012 was comically bad for both games, but there were others.  Anyway, really an impressive performance, especially offensively.  Crisp, clean execution, and Justin Thomas continues to impress.  We didn't ask him to throw much, but when needed, he mostly delivered, including a very nice pass on the 3rd and 15 or so in the 4th quarter.  He also did not run the ball much, but I think that was by design from Miami's scheme.  The secret is out - Justin Thomas is our best runner.  They focused on him and he calmly directed the ball to the right read.  

There were some bad plays of course, including a poor throw on 3rd and 5 to a fairly wide open Smelter on an out route.  This play immediately preceded the fake punt (which was a great call by the way).  But 28 points on essentially 8 possessions is pretty good offense.  

In related news, I'm starting to think maybe we've got the old CPJ back.  Not the guy who punted on 4th and 1 from midfield leading Miami 36-29 in 2012.  He faked a punt at a crucial juncture, I think primarily to make sure Miami didn't get the ball back again in the first half, so we'd have a chance to drive for the lead to open the 3rd quarter.  He went for it on 4th and 2 from inside Miami's 10 yard line in the 4th quarter, leading 21-17.  That was of course the touchdown, and also a great call.  But CPJ didn't want to leave Miami within 1 possession.  That was a gamble.  I think I like the gambling, aggressive CPJ more than the sometimes careful guy we've seen the past couple of years.  Maybe I'm making that up, but it felt to me he lost some of his aggression for a while.  

I'm still concerned about the defense.  Specifically, whether we can get stops without turnovers.  We are tied for next to last in the country at fewest punts forced per game.  Turnovers are nice, but they tend to be unreliable and inconsistent.  Here, Miami only had the ball 7 times, and they scored 17 points with 2 red zone turnovers.  Easily could have been 31 points on 7 possessions, which would have been atrocious defense, and also might have meant we lost.  

The defense deserves some credit for getting the turnovers, but you can also argue Miami's QB Kaaya just made some poor decisions.  I'd also argue that Miami's play caller made some poor decisions.  I'm not sure why Duke Johnson didn't get the ball more.  They seemed to think, if we stopped him once, they had to throw a couple times.  If I'm Miami, I might have run him 3 times in a row no matter what happens on first down.  Three Duke Johnson runs against our defense are going to total more than 10 yards most of the time, at least I would think.  Especially down in the red zone, I think I would have kept the ball on the ground.  

I do like the way Roof has been managing games and making adjustments.  I like some of our defensive players, but overall I don't think our talent scares anybody.  So Roof has to take some chances and play the percentages.  And I think he's done a good job with that so far.  But going forward, our inability to get stops means we aren't going to win very many games easily.  As we've already seen, even with Tulane and Ga. Southern, when the other team can score, the game tends to stay interesting.  

Here is a fun stat from this game though - and I bring it up because every game the commentators can't stop talking about how important it is for Georgia Tech's offense to stay "on schedule", and how if you can get us into 2nd and 3rd and long, you can stop us.  This stuff really is nonsense.  Our offense is better at 3rd and short than most offenses, but believe it or not, we are actually above average (usually) at 3rd and long.  3rd and long is how you stop any offense.  This talking point is tired and really incorrect.  Maybe I'll do a formal chart for the blog soon so you guys can see what I mean.  

Anyway, for this game, here is a list of Miami's third downs:

3rd down and 8 - failed conversion - punt

3rd down and 2 - failed conversion - convert on 4th down.

3rd down and 7 - failed conversion - FG

3rd down and 6 - failed conversion - punt

3rd down and 2 - conversion

And here is GT:

3rd down and 1 - convert

3rd down and 1 - convert

3rd down and 5 - failed conversion - punt

3rd down and 6 - conversion pass interference

3rd down and 5 - failed conversion, fake punt

3rd down and 5 - convert

3rd down and 16 - failed conversion

3rd down and 7 - conversion

3rd down and 4 - conversion

3rd down and 2 - conversion

3rd down and 16 - conversion

3rd down and 4 - failed conversion - convert 4th down

3rd down and 3 - convert

3rd down and 2 - convert

3rd down and 8 - failed conversion punt.

So Miami's big bad passing offense went 0 for 3 on 3rd down and 6 or longer.  Meanwhile, GT's offense that "has to stay on schedule" went 3 for 5 on 3rd and 6 or longer, including a conversion on 3rd and 16.  

The bottom line is that nobody converts 3rd and long much, but really, our offense isn't bad at it.  Getting us in 3rd and long isn't some weakness or achilles heel.  At least, not anymore than it is for NC State, Boston College, Miami, Texas, Stanford or pretty much whoever you want to talk about.  

Anyway, overall I thought a really good game and a satisfying win.  I still think we can play better, but this group plays as a team and seems to have what it takes to make plays in the clutch.

On to Duke.  I was terrified about this game.  Everything was set up perfectly for a big let down.  We just got ranked.  We are 5-0.  We are getting some respect.  Fresh off two huge wins against teams that have beaten us every year that every player on the current roster has been here.  We are back at home, and are favored, against a team we beat easily last year.  

I know, I know, they are the reigning Coastal division champs and they aren't a pushover anymore.  But, I think there is still the "it's Duke" factor.  

So, had we been flat, Duke really is pretty good.  I would have expected them to score and maybe score a lot.  Not really sure what to make of their defense, but playing flat usually means poor blocking, which can mean poor offense against most anybody (see Middle Tenn. State 2012, Ga. Southern 2nd half this year).  And of course we could always have a couple turnovers as well.  A flat performance here would probably mean a loss.

So why did I say I WAS terrified?  

Anybody seen the press conferences this week?  

Cutcliffe made some... what I would call shocking comments.  I mean it was mostly coach speak, the usual complimentary stuff.  But he also took a couple shots to the effect of "I don't know why recruits would go play in that offense if they want to go pro", and similarly why defenders would want to go there.  He did the Frank Beamer thing where he claims we "chop block" when he knows full well the difference in a cut block and a chop block.  And when asked how GT always seems to have a stud WR, he scoffed at the notion that Smelter is in the same category as Thomas or Calvin.  

In fairness, Smelter probably isn't (who is?) but that still smacks of taking a direct shot at a current student-athlete.  Something I'm not sure I've ever heard a coach do.  

When asked about these comments, Coach Johnson was pretty short but took the rather obvious argument - basically saying maybe they should worry about who they are (or aren't) putting in the NFL from their scheme and leave us alone.  Which makes sense, given that Coach Johnson is 6-0 against Duke and has put considerably more players in the NFL than Cutcliffe has.  

Boy that was an odd move from Cutcliffe.  

Well, I could analyze how the teams matchup but I think the bottom line is this - we have more talent, more depth, we are at home, and NOW... I think we are focused.  Thanks Cutcliffe!  I have a sneaking suspicion that GT is a very solid bet this weekend.  The spread is about 5, and I think we might just have a chip on our shoulder this week.  

The matchups are interesting.  I don't think Duke's defense is very good, but they have put up decent stats although mostly against poor opposition.  They aren't a very good rush defense, although we've seen in the past that doesn't necessarily mean much with us.  Our rushing attack is defended more like a passing attack than a traditional running attack - meaning sometimes we do very well against good rushing defenses and poorly against bad ones.  Duke's offense should be good, led by a good QB, but their passing hasn't been as sharp as last year.  And again, they've played nobodies, except for Miami.  They have run the ball better, but I think our defense is better against the run than the pass (at least when not facing a huge O-Line and Duke Johnson).  In other words I'm more afraid of Duke's passing attack than their rushing attack.  So I'm not sure what to make of their lackluster passing so far (compared to what they did last year).  

I do think we'll be able to score and score a lot.  I just don't think Duke has the athletes on defense to stop us.  And as a general rule, if you don't out-talent us, you don't have a chance to stop this offense.  Especially true if we are up for the game, which we should be now.

That last sentence is really what I think controls everything.  I like GT big.  42-21 or 38-17.  Something like that.  Don't think it'll be all that close.  

As always, Go Jackets!