Well, that was awful.  To preserve my own sanity, I did not review the game tape.  Obviously, the game went as predicted.  We couldn’t stop them, they couldn’t stop us, they won because they had the last possession.  

A few general thoughts.  I really disagreed with our defensive strategy from a game management point of view.  I thought it was far too conservative, and continued to be conservative a long time after it became apparent that it wasn’t working.  UNC had little trouble settling into a rhythm, taking what were giving them, and marching down the field for touchdowns.  Eventually, we started blitzing and taking chances, but it was too little too late.  

We knew going into the game that UNC had a good offense and we had a very bad defense, but I would have liked to have seen more of a sense of urgency, earlier, from the defensive coaching staff.  Looked to me like we were basically content to stick with the gameplan and see if maybe it would start working.  

Offensively its hard to complain too much, but the false start that cost us a TD (and arguably ended up costing us the game) was a silly mistake.  Especially since the O-Lineman who jumped was on the backside of a rocket toss.  What exactly was he in a hurry to go do?  He probably could stay in his stance the entire play and it wouldn’t matter.  

Unfortunately, I think we may have to get used to playing games like this.  With our defense playing as poorly as it is, I don’t see a comfortable win left on the schedule.  We will need the offense to play great and hope we cause some turnovers, pretty much every game.  When we were 5-0 I thought my 7-5 prediction may have sold us short, but its looking more and more like we might end up 7-5, or maybe 8-4, every game.  

Our offense is now ranked #1 by Football Outsiders.  Yes, that is right, the best offense in the country, allegedly.  Our defense is ranked #100. I like this site because it ranks based upon the efficiency of drives - nothing else.  And it adjusts for quality of opponent.  And ignores garbage time.  So it really does a good job of isolating the performance of each unit and what each accomplishes when the game is in doubt.  If you are curious, Pitt’s offense ranks 15th and its defense ranks 71st.  

Now that we are getting to the point in the season where there is reasonably accurate data (ie we have enough games to get something of a decent sample size) I thought I’d do a comparison of our units, and who we played, versus Pitts units and who they’ve played.  All rankings are taken from Football Outsiders FEI rankings.  

Let’s start with the bad news.  Our defense.  Here is what we have done this year (FBS opponents only)

Opponent	Offense Rank	Defense Points Allowed Per Possession
Tulane	92	21 points 11 possessions
Ga. Southern	44	38 points 10 possessions
Virginia Tech	88	24 points 12 possessions
Miami	13	17 points 7 possessions
Duke	57	31 points 9 possessions
UNC	26	48 points 11 possessions

:

So on the year we have allowed 179 points on 60 possessions, or almost exactly 3 points per possession.  Which is awful.  And we haven’t exactly played murderer’s row.  Strangely we held Miami, the best offense we have played, to only 2.4 points per possession.  But we allowed Duke UNC and Ga Southern to put up tremendous numbers, and gave the very poor offenses of VT and Tulane decent production.  

Here is how Pitt’s offense compares to that.  Pitt has been a weird offense this year, as they rank highly (15th nationally according to Football Outsiders) despite modest points per possession numbers.  My guess is there are two reasons of that.  First they have played some pretty good defenses.  And second, their offense tends to move the ball even when they don’t score.  Another reason I like Football Outsiders calculations is they account for this factor.  Driving 30 yards is very different from going three and out, even if both drives end in punts.  The 30 yard drive helps flip the field, so your defense has better field position, and it also probably gives the defense more of a rest.  Both are important if you care about winning games.  That type of drive isn’t a total failure and the stats really should account for that and make a distinction.  

Anyway, here are Pitt’s numbers for their offense (excluding FIU because for some reason espn.com is not displaying the play by play for that game):

Opponent	Defense Rank	Offense Points Scored Per Possession
Boston College	22	30 points, 12 possessions
Iowa	17	20 points, 9 possessions
Akron	64	10 points, 12 possessions
UVA	13	19 points, 12 possessions
Virginia Tech	1	21 points, 12 possessions

100 points on 57 possessions is not the most impressive stat line in history, but they have played four defenses ranked in the top 22 nationally.  Only Akron was not a good defense, and weirdly, that was Pitt’s worst game offensively.  But they have consistently put up respectable numbers against very quality defenses.   

So, odds are, Pitt will be able to score against us.   Since we are the worst defense they have played in some time.  Hopefully we can find a way to get some stops.  We’ll see.  

Now let’s move to the good news.  Our offense (ahem, the best in all the land):

Opponent	Defense Rank	Offense Points Scored Per Possession
Tulane	59	31 points 10 possessions
Ga. Southern	83	42 points 11 possessions
Virginia Tech	1	20 points 11 possessions
Miami	62	28 points 8 possessions
Duke	7	25 points 10 possessions
UNC	85	43 points 10 possessions

189 points on 60 possessions is excellent offense.  We haven’t exactly played the toughest schedule, but VT and especially Duke are allegedly better defenses than most people probably think.  At any rate, the offensive numbers are impressive, as everybody probably knows already.  We move the ball, rarely go three and out, eat a lot of clock and score a lot of points.  

Also on the plus side, Pitt’s defense isn’t terribly good:

Opponent	Offense Rank	Defense Points Allowed Per Possession
Boston College	36	20 points, 13 possesions
Iowa	69	24 points, 8 possessions
Akron	113	21 points, 12 possessions
UVA	37	17 points, 10 possessions
Virginia Tech	88	16 points, 14 possessions

98 points on 57 possessions is actually not a bad stat line, but only Boston College and Virginia are reasonably good offenses in this list.  In keeping with Pitt’s reputation, their defense performed reasonably well against the best offenses it faced, and poorly against some of the others (Iowa).  Pitt is annually one of the hardest teams to predict.  Which makes this game interesting.  Because on paper this looks easy.  Both teams score a bunch.  Knowing Pitt, they’ll find a way to stop us and not score very much.  We’ll see.  I expect a low possession game but both team scoring at will.  Something like 38 to 35.  Turnovers decide the outcome, as is normal for us.  

Not that it matters, because I think Pitt would be able to score anyway, but they have an excellent running back who is hard to tackle, and one of the best WR’s in the country.  I’m not sure about their O line or their QB, but they have the skill position talent to cause us trouble.  Not that it takes much.  

Hopefully, we can execute, play smart, force turnovers, limit penalties etc and come out with a win.  But as I expect every game to be from here on out, it should be a wild ride, and an entertaining game.  As always, Go Jackets!