UGA Preview

So here it is.  Clean Old Fashioned Hate.  Another year, another chance.

Once again I have time to write a full post but I don't want to mess with success.  We'll keep it short and sweet.

I take partial credit for the Clemson prediction.  Their offense was moving the ball OK with Watson.  Hard to tell how that game would have turned out if he had stayed healthy.  Their defense did an excellent job, holding our offense to 15 points, although we did miss a FG and we moved the ball pretty well.  Altogether it was what you would expect from a great offense against a great defense.  We did not score as much as I'd like, but we only had 8 possessions (not counting the two possessions running out the clock in both halves).  Moving the ball as well as we did, scoring a TD and getting into FG range 4 times, and eating clock, all of those things help you win a game that only has 8 possessions.  Of course, the defense scoring 2 TD's thanks to a Cole Stoudt meltdown was also a big help.  In the end the game was a comfortable win, but its likely a hard fought battle if Watson had played.

Nevertheless, however it happened, the defense has now played great 4 weeks in a row.  And yet I still have this nervous feeling that we really aren't any better.  That if we played UNC or Duke again, we'd get the same result defensively.  Pitt, UVA, NC State and now Clemson all made a lot of errors that I'm just not sure we forced.  And I highly doubt UGA does the same.

First of all, their strength is our biggest weakness.  Power running.  I don't know what we plan to do with their offensive line and Chubb.  I don't know what we can do.  I'm worried this game might look a lot like 2012, where we have a hard time forcing 3rd down.  And even if we do limit the run, their passing attack is pretty good too.  They are 7th nationally in both yards per carry and passer rating.  Probably why their offense is ranked 7th in the country according to Football Outsiders.  Its an excellent offense.

But here is the real problem for us in my opinion.  We have a great offense too, actually ranked #1 currently by Football Outsiders, but we will be playing a different defense.  Georgia hasn't been a bad defense all year, but they appear to be peaking.  They are currently 24th in Football outsiders - not bad at all.  (Our own defense has risen from 100th to 58th with our play the past 4 weeks, but that still isn't that good unfortunately).

As great as our offense is, a pretty good defense should be able to slow it down some and get a few stops.  And the worry is, even if we score a TD on half our possessions (which would be a great day offensively), they might beat that.  They might have 28 or 35 points on their first 4 or 5 possessions, literally.

If we can find a way to get a few stops - turnovers, penalties, whatever - then I like our chances a lot better and this game may be a tossup.  But I just don't know if we can do that.  I'm not even sure our defense can do as "well" as 2009 and force some FG's.

I fear we may lose by 2 or 3 TD's in a game that isn't really in doubt in the 4th quarter.  Hopefully, we can make plays defensively and keep the game close and pull it out in the end.

As always, Go Jackets!