ACC Championship Game Preview - FSU

So we are going to keep a good thing going here.  Obviously the short and sweet blog posts are working out.  This one will be the same as the last few weeks.

What a game!  I still can't believe we won.  The first half went exactly as I expected.  UGA had the ball 4 times, ran 32 plays, gained 224 yards, for 7 yards per play, and we only forced 1 punt.  If not for the two fumbles at the 1 yard line, they would have had 21 points on just 4 possessions.  It would have been 2012 all over again - we were struggling to force third down.  Forget about getting stops.  

However, give the defense credit for continuing to give 100% on those two fumbles.  I believe it was Milton who never quit on the long run by Chubb, and tracked him down at the 1 yard line.  Without that effort, and the effort of the defense to get a stop on 1st and goal, they would have scored the TD before Chubb had the chance to fumble on 2nd and goal.  Similarly, what a great effort by Nealy to track down Michel at the 1 yard line and force the second fumble.  In both cases, it would have been easy to think "oh well they are going to score anyway" and halfheartedly give 80%.  Two perfect examples of why you should try as hard as you possibly can every play.  You never know what might happen to keep points off the board.

The offense played pretty well in the first half, I thought.  It moved the ball and got us into scoring situations.  The FG block wasn't the offense's fault, and the offense was mostly working with poor field position.  7 points on 4 possessions isn't great, but it really should have been 10, which isn't bad.  Especially against a pretty good defense like UGA, with the field position we kept getting.  

The second half was truly shocking.  The offense mostly steamrolled UGA.  Just completely pushed them around.  I thought the fumble at the goalline (one of the worst calls in history by the way - how was the forward progress not stopped?) might deflate us.  Nope.  They came right back out and did it again.  And again.  Just marching up and down the field.  

And the defense!  Where did that come from?  Our front 7 just beat up their O-Line.  We forced a 3 and out.  We overcame a faked FG and a bad pass interference call, which gave them 1st and goal at the 2, and forced a FG anyway.  And held them scoreless in OT.  Of course, we did give up the go ahead TD drive with 18 seconds left, but this is one of the nation's best offenses, and we pushed them to the brink.  Literally inches from winning the game with a 4th down stop.  

For the 2nd half, UGA was held to 137 yards on 35 plays (not counting the fake FG as an "offensive" play - thats on the special teams).  Just under 4 yards per play.  For the game, they scored 17 points on 7 possessions (8 counting OT).  The 17/7 ratio is identical to the Miami game.  Also with 2 turnovers forced in regulation.  

So they averaged 2.43 points per possession, and we averaged 2.4.  Really about as even as a game can be.  Which is a good thing if you ask me, as I think UGA is a legit top ten team, and we just went into Athens and went toe to toe with them, and outplayed them in the end.  

Total team effort, and a great game.

Of course, it will take the same thing to get a win tomorrow.  I actually think we matchup better with FSU than we do with UGA.  They are more finesse than power, and Winston has shown a vulnerability to INT's this year, now that he doesn't have the great running attack he had last year, and he no longer has the full compliment of standout WRs he had last year.  FSU still has talent, but not the overwhelming variety of talent from 2013, and it seems Winston has been trying to do too much.  Our secondary has shown the ability to create interceptions.  If that unit plays well, we could easily force 2 or 3.  

FSU's defense is pretty similar in quality to UGA's.  Its good.  Maybe a little better than Georgia.  I don't think it has overwhelming strength.  Good speed though.  No telling really how they are going to defend us.  Kelly, the defensive coordinator, worked here at GT for several years, and was the interim replacement during 2012 after Groh was fired mid season.  I'm not really sure whether his inside knowledge gives him much of an advantage or not.  

I have a sneaking suspicion we are going to win this game, and maybe by 10-14 points.  The defense has finally convinced me that it is much improved.  But let's not forget Winston, when playing well, is maybe the best player in the country, and FSU has plenty of talent.  I've also got a sneaking suspicion they've been on cruise control most of the year, and also have been worn down because they have taken everybody's best shot all year.  Basically every game, the opponent is playing its biggest game of the year and FSU is just trying to play an average game.  That wears you down.  

From FSU's psychological standpoint, they've only played one game all year comparable to this one - and that was a top 5 matchup against Notre Dame.  They probably haven't been "up" for a game in a while.  Then again, we are the best team they've played all year, as Notre Dame has been exposed and its apparent now their top 5 ranking was not deserved.  

Further complicating matters is that Georgia Tech has not traditionally handled positive press very well.  And we are now getting plenty of it.  We've been doubted all year long, even by obsessed fans like yours truly, but now people are giving us credit and believe in us.  Can we keep the same edge and play with the same intensity?

So I don't really know what to make of this game.  If both teams play well, I think it should be close.  I really think we have the advantage, and should be expected to pull out a close one.  But I wouldn't be surprised by either team winning by 28 points.  Both offenses are good enough to light people up if they execute well.

I'll predict that both teams play well, and I think we pull out a close win late, something like 35-31,

I can't wait to see what happens.  As always, Go Jackets!