Well, I’m terrified.
I know. I’m supposed to be excited. Everyone else is excited. We just won eleven games. And the orange bowl. We are ranked preseason. The Coastal favorites for the first time. But, let me explain.
First the schedule. Notre Dame added to the normal UGA non conference slate. Both Clemson and FSU from the Atlantic. The usual Coastal wheel of destiny, except Duke isn’t the pushover it used to be, so really any game is losable now. That is 10 games we realistically could lose. Several in which we will be underdogs. We could be as good as last year and still only win 7 or 8 games.
Second, expectations. Historically, Georgia Tech hasn’t done real well with expectations. Usually when we are ranked pre season and expected to do well, we don’t. 1990 (without much expectations) we snuck up on people and won it all. 1991 (with big expectations) we came back to earth. Same combination for 1998 (not much expectations, conference title and 10 wins) and 1999 (big expectations, 8-4). I’m not sure what causes this, but in my experience, when GT gets preseason respect, we underwhelm.
And finally, its because this year feels identical to 2010, for me. We were fresh off an 11 win season and an orange bowl appearance. We returned our stud quarterback. Nobody was worried about the pieces we lost on offense because we had Paul Johnson and that stud at quarterback. Nobody was worried about the defense because it “can’t get any worse”. Even though the defense, which at times seemed atrocious, was a key part of our success. Remember in 2009, the defense was thought to be awful. Everybody remembers the UGA game (and to a lesser extent the FSU game) where it seemed like nobody punted. In fact, in the UGA game, really, nobody punted. In 2009, we played 3 games in which we failed to force a punt. And we won two of them...
So going into 2010, the thought was the Groh might shore up the defense. But even if he didn’t, who cares? We will just keep on outscoring people. Problem is, the defense did more than people realized. It got key stops against Clemson in the regular season game, especially late. It played a great game to limit Virginia Tech to just 23 points in our biggest win of the season. It shut down a North Carolina team whose defense was good enough to hold us to 10 points through three quarters. Those games easily could have been losses without the defense making crucial, timely plays. In fact, the 2009 defense, for as much as it was derided, finished ranked 51st in football outsiders efficiency rankings. That 51st ranking is tied with 2013 and 2014, and higher than 2010, 2011 and 2012. In other words, we STILL haven’t produced a defense better than that 2009 group (although last year was tied).
The 2009 defense wasn’t good, but it made timely crucial plays (Clemson, FSU, Wake) and played well in some big games (VT). Similarly, the 2014 defense wasn’t good, but it made timely crucial plays (VT, Miami, Ga. Southern) and played well in some big games (Clemson, UGA).
Going into 2010, the thinking was the defense couldn’t get any worse. Well, it got worse. This year I’m not sure what the thinking is (from the fan base collectively). The UGA game tends to define, for a lot of our fans, the status of the team. Thus, because the defense played pretty well in that game, the collective opinion of the defense might be pretty good. Unfortunately, based on a lot of metrics the defense was awful. It finished with a mediocre ranking thanks to turnovers only. And so the question becomes, was that luck? Or can we replicate that? If we can’t, can the defense improve and actually get regular stops? Or are we going to be horrible on defense next year?
Because that was the formula for a shockingly disappointing 2010 campaign. Losses on offense that were ignored proved vitally important, and a defense that could actually get worse did get worse, and we went 6-7 and finished with Paul Johnson’s lowest computer ranking at GT (by far).
So there are plenty of troubling parallels. Losses on offense (Demaryius Thomas, Jon Dwyer, a couple of O-Linemen - compared to 10 of our top 11 RBs and WRs, and Shaq Mason). A much maligned defense. Lofty expectations. The extremely difficult schedule actually makes this year potentially worse than 2010.
We won’t sneak up on anybody this year. In fact we are likely circled on the calendar for many teams and will get their best punch. We have a very vulnerable defense and question marks on offense. Potentially overrated team and a tough schedule is a bad combination.
So that’s why I’m terrified.
But enough of the bad news. Despite the loss of Shaq Mason, one of the best if not the best O-linemen in the ACC last year in my opinion, we still have a deep and talented O-Line. In fact, its the #1 rated O line in the ACC according to Phil Steele. And of course there is Justin Thomas. If you have to have question marks on offense, I’d rather they not be at QB and O-line. And they aren’t. Justin Thomas is perhaps the best quarterback Paul Johnson has ever had (anywhere, not just GT). I think he’s just about perfect for this offense.
The QB and O-line give us a significant edge over 2010. I know we had Nesbitt in 2010 but I think Thomas is better. A significantly better passer, better at running the offense (because Thomas is great at that while Nesbitt was only good) and I think actually a better runner. Nesbitt was obviously a great power runner. Thomas is a great speed runner. I think overall Thomas has a slight edge here. Doesn’t really matter though. Both are great runners, but the passing and ability to run the offense make Thomas significantly better than Nesbitt in my opinion. And I don’t say that lightly because I loved Josh and I think he was a great player for us. Thomas is simply a huge asset. And in Byerly we have a very good backup. Bylerly might have started for some other CPJ teams at GT. Tough break for him that he is playing behind Thomas but hopefully he gets some meaningful snaps in short yardage situations as he did last year.
As for the defense, its not hopeless. In fact, I’m intrigued. Last year we were awful on an every play basis. Somehow very good in key situations. Without the two fourth quarter INTs, we certainly lose at VT for example. Without the overtime INT we probably lose to UGA. Without a late forced fumble we (gulp) probably would have lost to Ga. Southern. But it was still a defense that conceded 6.3 yards per play last year. Within the ACC that was only better than UNC and the 4-3-0 defense it employed last season. (I expect Gene Chizik to change up that scheme and actually put a secondary on the field this year - still though I imagine UNC fans are excited that East Carolina won’t score 70 on them again this year - as they are not on the schedule). 6.3 yards per play is the most ever allowed by a Paul Johnson team at GT. Think about that...
But unlike 2010, the defense does not lose its two best players to high draft picks in the NFL from an already questionable unit. Instead, we return most of our best players . . . from a still questionable unit (as the old joke goes returning a lot of starters can be the bad news). But there are tangible reasons to think this might be the best D-Line we’ve had in years. Adam Gotsis returns and is probably our best player. We get Jabari Hunt Days back from academic suspension. He was an excellent player for us in 2013, has bulked up and moved to DT, and has been getting rave reviews for over a year in practice. He is listed in Phil Steele’s top 30 NFL draft prospects (although he’s mistakenly listed at DE where he won’t be playing for us according to our current 2 deep) without having played D-line in college. So he’s certainly intriguing and could be a huge boost. Keshun Freeman was excellent as a freshman DE, played a great game against UGA, and if he continues to improve could really be something special. Rook Chungong and Gamble were solid players last year. Francis Kallon, long thought to have enormous potential, has finally earned a spot in the two deep (which apparently has allowed Gamble to move to DE where he is probably better suited). Its a deep and experienced group, with legitimate NFL talent and a number of guys with loads of potential that hasn’t been fully realized yet.
It is my opinion that the D-Line is the most important part of any defense. If you are disruptive up front it makes everybody else’s job much easier. And the D-line could be a real strength of this team. The linebackers shouldn’t be bad and the secondary has returning talent. Most notably DJ White, who earned himself a place in every Tech fans heart with the walk off interception against UGA. I think he’s underrated and should have gotten more preseason hype on the all conference teams.
Anyway, there is talent on defense and I’m excited about the defensive line. The offense is almost sure to take a step back from last year. Actually I don’t think most Tech fan appreciate just how good the offense was last year. The best offense in the country according to the opponent adjusted efficiency rankings of football outsiders, and actually maybe the best offense of the last decade. We were real good. So “taking a step back” from that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. But replacing 10 of our top 11 WRs and RBs, including 2 NFL caliber WRs, means we certainly won’t be as good. But if we can get reasonable play from the replacements, and Thomas and the O line are as good as advertised, we can still be very good on offense. If the D-line is as good as I think it can be, we could actually be mediocre or even above average on defense. If that happens look out. We could be really good. Imagine a Paul Johnson offense humming along paired with a defense that can regularly get stops.
Thus, my approach for this season is cautiously optimistic. I’m worried, probably moreso than usual, but excited because we could be good. But I really wish we hadn’t gotten any respect preseason and had started unranked again. More motivation for us in preseason practice, less focus from our opponents on the GT game. With the target on our backs and all the question marks, I really think anything from 5-7 to 15-0 is reasonably possible. I guess I’ll predict something like 10-4 (I do think we are justifiably the Coastal favorites and we should be in the ACC Champ game). If one of those 10 is the game at Thanksgiving, I’ll be pretty happy with that myself. I think 9-4 or 8-5 is also pretty likely, however. We won’t learn too much until week 3, but I’m excited to get started.
Go Jackets!
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