Miami Preview

Well, we made it interesting, but in the end I wasn't off by much.  45-31 prediction, 38-28 final score.  You gotta take that kinda prediction result wherever you can get it.  Of course I'd have preferred us to keep that comfortable lead and never let the game get in doubt, but that just isn't who GT is apparently.

Anyway, on to Miami.  We are somehow favored by 4 points.  Miami is collapsing I guess.  While not playing terribly, they haven't looked like a good team since UNC.  The last 4 games, they barely beat FSU, and then lost by 1 or 2 scores to UVA, BC and then Duke.  We'll see if we can keep that trend going.

Football Outsiders has their stats up for the season finally, so I'm going to walk through the matchup with their advance stats.

First, our offense (ranked #11) versus Miami's defense (ranked #10).  

Overall efficiency - we generate 3.26 points per drive (adjusted for field position).   This ranks 9th nationally.  They allow 1.32, which is 7th nationally.

Offensive drive success rate - 48.8% of our drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should.  This is 11th nationally.  They allow 22.7%, which is 16th nationally.

Available yards - we have gained 60.4% of available yards on the season, which is 9th nationally.  They have given up 34.3% of available yards, or 10th nationally.

First down rate - 80.5% of our drives result in at least one first down, which is 11th nationally.  They allow at least one first down on 64.9% of drives, which is 20th nationally. 

Touch down rate - We score a TD on 45.1% of our drives, which is 5th nationally.  They allow a TD on 15.5% of drives, which is 13th nationally.

TD after first down - On drives where we get at least 1 first down, we score a TD on 56.1% of our drives, which is 9th nationally.  They allow 23.8% TDs in this situation, which is 11th nationally.

Ball control - 75.6% of our drives last at least 4 plays, which is 5th nationally.  They allow 60.8%, which is 23rd nationally.

Turnovers - 13.4% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 98th nationally.   They force turnovers on 14.4% of drives, which is 27th nationally.


So Miami's defense is consistently good at everything, and is the best defense we will play all season except Clemson (currently UGA is next, ranked 24th, so not even that close).  Our offense is consistently good at everything, except turnovers.

Looking over all categories, this should be a really good battle.  Turnovers will be key.  We are bad at ball security.  Miami is good at taking the ball away, though no better at that than they are at everything else.

Points will be tough to come by against this defense, so we definitely can't afford to waste possessions.  We also don't want to give the ball to a bad offense in good field position, particularly with how bad our own defense is.  Must take care of the ball.

Moving on to...

our defense (ranked 95th) versus Miami's offense (ranked #86).  

Overall efficiency - they generate 1.9 points per drive (adjusted for field position).   This ranks 92nd nationally.  We allow 2.44, which ranks 86th.

Offensive drive success rate - 29.6% of their drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should.  This is 87th nationally.  We allow 39.7%, which is 95th nationally.

Available yards - they have gained 41.2% of available yards on the season, which is 96th nationally.  We allow 49.2%, which is 91st nationally.

First down rate - 67.3% of their drives result in at least one first down, which is 101st nationally.  We allow 78.2%, which is 106th nationally.

Touch down rate - They score a TD on 24.5% of their drives, which is 84th nationally.  We allow 33.3%, which is 97th nationally.

TD after first down - On drives where they get at least 1 first down, they score a TD on 36.4% of our drives, which is 75th nationally.  We allow 42.6%, which is 83rd nationally.

Ball control - 63.3% of their drives last at least 4 plays, which is 89th nationally.  We allow 74.4%, which is 121st nationally.

Turnovers - 14.3% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 109th nationally.  We force turnovers on 17.9% of drives, which is 5th nationally.


Turnovers really tell the story here.  Once again, both teams are consistently even across all categories (here, both roughly equally BAD).  Except turnovers.  They are terrible at taking care of the ball, and we are great at taking the ball away.  Based on this, we should expect to force a turnover on one of every 6 possessions or so.  And we will need it.  Assuming a 12 possession game, we need at least two turnovers forced.

Otherwise it looks like a pretty even game.  I generally favor Miami's situation here.  I'd rather have a bad offense trying to score on a bad defense, than a good offense trying to score on a good defense.  But we'll see.  This looks an awful lot like a game where the turnover battle decides the outcome.

I'll call it 28-24, to whoever win the turnovers.  I'll pick GT.

As always, Let's Go Jackets!