BC Preview

 Got it right last week.  In fairness, that was an easy call.

Lots of GT fans are up in arms about how big the blowout was.  Much ado about nothing if you ask me.  We tried to play them straight up (hopefully to learn and grow) and playing hurry up, taking shots downfield etc led to a 17 possession game.  That's a ton.  They are a lot better than us.  That is a lot of chances to score on us.  73-7 isn't really any worse than 52-14 in my opinion, but I guess reasonable minds can disagree.  

Anyway, on to BC.  They are decent on defense, not very good on offense.  We are decent on offense, not very good on defense.  (Really have not been impressed this year with Collins' defensive coaching - supposed to be his strength - and we aren't very good.  We need better talent, but we are 13th in the ACC in yards per play allowed - our talent isn't that bad I don't think).

The game is at BC.  Obviously a slight advantage for them.  I think they are better than us anyway.  I'm a little surprised the line is only 4 points.  I would think BC covers that.  I expect us to lose by 10 or so.  But, stop me if you've heard this before, turnovers will be key.  We force a lot and give up a lot.  In fact, we are 3rd from last in turnovers lost nationally, and 4th in turnovers forced.  That's crazy.  That is also why we beat Louisville badly (should have lost) and lost to Syracuse badly (should have won).

So, if the turnover margin is +/- 3 in either direction, that team will win.

Assuming no crazy turnover story, I would expect a slow battle that is close but BC wins... 31-21.  Maybe.  They power run as always and throw a little, not very creative but not bad.  They have a great tight end.  There is a long running joke, with some truth to it, about GT not being able to cover tight ends.  So watch for that.  On the other side their D is ok but not flashy.  Our offense has some talent.  Need to play sharp.  

I'd bet BC to cover the spread and win by 10.  

As always, I hope I'm wrong.  Go Jackets!

Clemson Preview

 Well, I was badly wrong again.  The reason was turnovers.  Which are hard to predict.  I think the Syracuse game should have been close.  And we probably should have lost to Louisville.  But both games were affected significantly by turnovers.  However, I'm very happy with the win.

No reason to spend too much time this week analyzing things.  Clemson is really good.  We'll get beat.  Hopefully we can play well, get Gibbs many touches, and Sims will continue developing.  

But I expect a loss.  Probably won't be close.

Hope I am wrong again.  And as always go jackets!

Louisville Preview

 Ok, well, I apologize for the wildly incorrect prediction.  

Sadly, what happened I think was that the opponents of GT are not as good as we thought.  FSU is awful.  Even worse than it appeared.  And UCF lost to Tulsa, after not looking all that impressive versus East Carolina (eventually routed them but I think East Carolina is bad).

So, I was overrating GT and our improvement.  We move the ball pretty well on offense but are sloppy with turnovers and inefficient cashing in points.  The O-line is probably not as improved as I had hoped.  The defense is still under talented.  

I do not think Syracuse is all that good, and frankly that game should have been close.  We gave them a 17 point win with turnovers.  But I was incorrect - we were not and are not significantly better than Cuse.  And its looking like 4-7 may have been optimistic.  We might go 3-8 or (gulp) even 2-9.  

Statistically, we are similar to Louisville in terms of yards per play on offense, and yards allowed per play on defense.  But I think Louisville has played a much tougher schedule.  Miami instead of FSU.  Pitt instead of Syracuse.  

So I'm afraid Louisville will beat us pretty easily.  They are solid on offense.  Pitt largely shut them down but Pitt is a good defense.  We are not.  Louisville's defense is not terrible but not good.  I expect us to move the ball.  But we've struggled turning that into points.  Turnovers.  3rd down execution.  Missed FGs.  Etc.  To quantify that, Phil Steele has tracked yards per point for many years.  Measures how efficiently a team turns yards gained into points - really its about efficiently executing.  A team that scores every drive would average 7 points (a TD) for every 50-80 yards gained (the average drive), or about 1 point per 10 yards.  Average tends to be more like 1 point every 15 yards.  1 point every 20 yards is generally bad.  So far this year we have 1362 yards and just 57 points, which is 1 point every 23.7 yards.  That is AWFUL.  Among the worst I've ever seen (although admittedly I don't follow this stat that closely).  

That means, for a single TD, on average, we need to gain about 165 yards.  That's not good.

Anyway, if we clean up the turnovers we might keep it close because Louisville's defense isn't great.  But I expect more of the same from our offense.  I think we need to play risky football to gain those yards - we aren't good enough to move the ball without taking chances.  At least that's what I think I'm seeing.  Sims improvement will really help there but we may be 1-2 years away from that.

I am afraid it'll be something like 38-21 Louisville.

I hope I am just as wrong this week as I was last week.

As always, let's go jackets!

Syracuse Preview

 Well, that game was no fun.  I thought, early in the 4th quarter, I had the game predicted pretty well.  We trailed 28-21.  Looked about right.  

UCF is a good team, well coached and a really tough offense to stop.  We just turned the ball over too much and gave them too many short fields.  The game actually had 15 possessions, which is a couple more than average.  I was hoping for a low possession game, something like 10, where we eat up clock and keep the ball so our defense can rest.  That didn't work.  UCF ran 92 plays.  

We've gotta take better care of the ball, but that's expected with a true freshmen at QB.  He still looks like he has loads of potential, so there's good news.  And Gibbs appears to be as good as advertised.  Great kick return to setup the first TD, and then he scored the next 2 himself.  I believe he had around 200 yards of all purpose offense.  

So some positive takeaways but more or less a forgettable result.  

On to Syracuse.  Interesting team.  Not supposed to be any good this year according the preseason experts.  But Cuse's offense was supposed to be the better unit.  It has not played out that way so far.  If you believe the hype, UNC and Pitt are supposed to be good teams.  And Cuse kept it close early in both, with a scrappy defense but an ABYSMAL offense.  

This offense for Syracuse is seriously among the worst I've ever seen statistically.  Averaging 180 yards per game total.  120 passing 60 rushing.  That is awful.  Less than 2 yards per carry rushing.  Only 4.1 yards per attempt passing.  If they run once and pass twice in a series, on average they'd be facing 4th down.  That's... impressively bad.

Now its only two games, but its been two epically bad offensive performances.  

Their defense statistically is middle of the pack in the ACC so far.  We are middle of the pack in both offense and defense.  Given that, I'd expect to see us move the ball steadily as we have, but struggle to score.  However, we should end up with something like 24, 28 or 31.  They should be at 10 or 14, if I'm right.  

I know the Vegas spread is GT by 8 (and the computers, which still factor in last year right now, have this game as about a toss up), but I think we win comfortably.  We'll see.  Maybe Cuse playing at home for the first time figures out its offense.  Maybe UNC and Pitt are just really, really good on defense (but I doubt it).  

I think GT 28-10 or maybe 31-14.  That's my pick.

As always, let's go Jackets!

UCF Preview

 Great start to Year 2 under Collins.  Obviously, no idea if FSU is any good or still a dumpster fire.  They definitely have some talent, but are they a good team?  Either way, getting a win on the road in week 1 is excellent.  

How good does that mean we are? My gut is that we are much improved (sorta obvious) but still not all that good.  I'm still looking for 4-7 or 5-6 this year, probably.  Although I'd love to be wrong.  

If we win again tomorrow, I'm probably wrong.  So let's all hope for that.  UCF is favored by about 7.  Based on the preseason hype, they should be a worse defense than FSU (somewhat worse, not a huge difference) but quite a bit better on offense.  Really no weakness on offense.  Phil Steele has their O-line and running backs top 10 nationally, and their WRs and QBs about 25th nationally (and this is out 130 teams, because it was done before any covid opt outs).  So, they should be very tough to stop and will be a good test for our defense.  

On defense, their secondary is very good but they are weaker than FSU up front.  UCF has a good but not great defensive line, but average linebackers.  No real weak link on the team, which is why they are ranked, but their defense is worse than their offense, and the linebackers are probably their worst unit.  That may mean we try to attack them with delay handoffs, screen passes, play action, and similar plays designed to stress the linebackers speed and ability to read keys.  Wildcat option runs with Sims might work as well.

I'm looking for us to hopefully sustain drives, eat clock, shorten the game in terms of possessions, and try to manufacture a couple extra stops with a big sack or a turnover.  If the game has 10 possessions (equal to last week but lower than average), I would expect UCF to score maybe 4 or 5 TDs.  Something like 38-31 or 35-28 is the most likely outcome in my opinion, with UCF winning.  We need the offense to execute well all day and for Sims to continue making plays if we want to pull the upset.  

Given that our offensive line looked OK against what is supposed to be a great D-line, I'm excited to see how we can do against a D line that isn't quite that good (although UCF is still pretty good there).  Establishing a consistent rushing attack would obviously help, and we've got several very talented running backs to help with that effort.  

I'm curious and optimistic, but trying to remind myself we are still rebuilding, we are still young, and UCF is a good team.  I think we can win, but I know we are not supposed to...

As always, let's go Jackets!

2020 Season Preview and FSU Preview

 Previewing both the season and the first game at the same time.  We'll start with the season.

Actually a fairly difficult schedule.  UCF is the only non-conference game, and while they are not as good as usual, they are still pretty solid and should be close to top 25.  The ACC was mostly young last year (which was why it was so bad) and most teams are expected to be improved.  In what I'd call a shocking revelation, Phil Steele (who ranks each position group nationally every year) has the top 4 defensive lines in the country all from the ACC.  That's right.  I mean, I think he's wrong about that.  That can't be true.  But that's his ranking.  And we play all four of them (#1 Clemson, #2 Pitt, #3 Miami and #4 FSU).  Actually, if this were a regular year, we would draw the top 5 bc UGA is ranked #5.

Anyway, the point is the ACC is supposed to be much improved, and we play 10 teams from it, including Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Notre Dame.  

So, while I think we will be better, probably a lot better, than last year, it may not show up in the win column yet.  We'll see.

The main reason we'll be better is improved depth and experience in year 2.  The second biggest reason is the O-line.  Put simply, it was not good at all last year.  It'll be better this year.  We had 3 transfers but I believe the Vandy transfer decided not to play after all.  Still, younger players have grown and we do have two grad transfers coming in who are much better suited to the size and style we want.  

And we actually flashed some decent talent at WR last year.  Running back we are well stocked with an underrated, and perhaps one of the country's best, RBs in Jordan Mason, plus young talent in last year's 4 star freshman Jamious Griffin and this year's 4 star recruit Jahmyr Gibbs.  Griffin flashed potential last year, and Gibbs looks like a future star with incredible speed, quickness, and decent strength.  

That just leaves QB, and frankly I think James Graham will start and I think he was better last year than most others seem to think.  He was just a freshman playing behind a bad O-line.  But we have solid talent behind him that may develop as well.

I expect we are still 1-2 years away from being as good as we should get on offense, but I expect this year to be much improved.

On defense, I am hoping for solid if not spectacular.  Again, improved depth and experience.  We aren't going to have any heavy hitters on the D-line, but we are solid and deep there, and the scheme will help.  I was impressed last year with our ability to disguise blitzes and coverages (less impressed with the offensive scheming, but you win some you lose some I guess).  

Add it all up and I think we are 2 TDs better this year than last year.  Sadly, if you add 14 points to our score in every game last year, we only go from 3 wins to 5 wins (and one of those extra wins is the Citadel).  So, I still expect 4-7 or 5-6 probably at best, unfortunately.  However, we should be in more close games, and that is something.

As for FSU, they are supposedly loaded on defense (see the D-line discussion above).  To go with that D-line are top 30 units nationally at LB and DB.  Offensively, they are not supposed to be nearly as good, and its the first year of their coaching staff putting in what they do.  Given that, I would expect this to be a relatively low scoring game.  Lots of punts.  Offenses might get going.  I look for something like 28-20.  31-24 maybe.  FSU is favored by 12.5.  I think we keep it closer than that, but it'll be tough to win.  They've got talent and are at "home" (although that means less in the covid environment with no or few fans).  Its asking a lot for us to get a win in Tallahassee in week 1.  I think we could, but I expect FSU by a TD in a low scoring game.  

As always, let's go Jackets!

UGA Preview

Hey gang,

You've probably noticed there hasn't been a post since Pitt.

I just haven't had the emotional energy to devote to it this season.  I was pretty accurate about the Pitt game.  UVA was closer than I would have thought.  VT was abysmal (but they have been hot until UVA today anyway).  NC State we did what I thought we probably would, and gutted out a win over a bad team.  But the mostly constant losing has beaten me down. 

UGA will beat us badly tomorrow.  I don't feel like analyzing why.  The good news is that will finally mean this difficult season is over.  Maybe it was a necessary transition.  Maybe we could have been better.  But the team has kept fighting and some players have improved and we have some pieces to build upon for next year.  I'm just ready for it to be over, sadly. 

Let's go recruit, and keep building, and support this staff and these players.  And, as always, let's go Jackets!

Pitt Preview

So I am doing a terrible job of blogging this year.  Pretty much a lost season for the blog, I just don't have the heart to commit to it at this point.

Anyway, a quick recap of what has been missed - since the UNC game our defense has looked... questionable.  In fact, the football outsiders unit rankings have come out and our defense is 82nd.  Not good at all.  My suspicion is that, before the Duke and UNC games, it might have been up closer to 50th, but I can't prove that.  Duke was an abysmal defensive performance, though at least this time their offense is ok (unlike 2017, when we allowed 43 points on 9 possessions to one of the Coastal's worst ever offenses).

So, we are now a bad offense and a bad defense, ranking, 82nd and 94th, respectively.  Pitt is a great defense (14th) but an offense even worse than ours (98th).  We are at home.  What does that add up to?  Well, probably low scoring, but I wouldn't expect us to have a chance to win without turnovers or other help.

If you expect our Miami success to continue, I would say you may be a victim of the recency bias I talked about in the UNC preview (where our spread was probably about right).  However, it is also possible that we are improving and figuring out the new schemes.  That's the tricky part for year 1 of a change this big.  Like all football teams, we should still expect to see good games and bad games and fluctuations.  But we should also expect to see general improvement as the season wears on.  So how do we tell if the Miami game was mostly a random fluctuation, and we just played well that day - or does it represent signs that we are actually better today than we were 4 weeks ago?

If we are actually better today than 4 weeks ago, then our unit rankings of 82nd and 94th would not really be an accurate reflection of where we stand today (full disclosure, this is an issue for all teams, as all teams should improve a the season wears on, but I'd expect to see significantly more improvement from week 1 to week 13 for a team like us, adjusting to all new schemes and coaches).

So, tomorrow will provide more information.  I expect to see a close game for a while and then eventually a 10-14 point loss, but we'll see.  Maybe we really are improving.  Even given how much better we looked at Miami, we still only scored 7 offensive points in regulation.  Really what happened is we got turnovers, one for a TD, and a special teams TD.  But, we did look a little more consistent and we converted more 3rd downs than we have been converting, so... maybe.  Let's see if we can keep the improvement going tomorrow.

As always, Let's Go Jackets!

UNC Preview

Well, obviously I've not been around since the Citadel.  I've been in mourning.  Meant to post before Temple, but didn't get to it, and didn't really care.  Does that make me a bad fan?  Maybe.  I still support this team and this coaching staff, although I'm growing increasingly concerned that our offensive coaching staff is not what I want it to be.  We'll see as the year progresses.

Moving on past the bad news, the good news is that our spreads have mostly been accurate this year.  The Citadel was the big outlier (we were favored by 25+ I believe).  Temple was favored by only about 8-9, but that's probably where the game should have been without the two disaster turnovers.  USF and Clemson were spot on.

So why is that good news?  Well, UNC is only favored by 9 or 10.  I expect that's about right.  Many will think its crazy, but that's recency bias.  You know, putting too much emphasis on what just happened.  UNC played Clemson very close (likely a fluke, and just Clemson escaping one of its 1 or 2 annual sleepwalking games).  And we just got blown out (but like I said, turnovers, plus Temple is not bad - actually, not much worse than UNC if you believe the computers.  Or Pitt/Miami for that matter, and better than VT, but I digress (digressing in a parenthetical?  Impressive!))

Anyway, back to not nonsense - I expect we'll play UNC close.  It'll be low scoring because our defense is OK and our offense is awful.  If its not low scoring, it won't be close.  We can't score, so anything "high scoring" wil be a UNC blowout.  For example, if UNC's QB has a good day, we'll be in trouble.  But I think our blitz packages and secondary are good enough to keep it close for a while, and maybe even pull the win if we get the turnovers this time.  Might also depend on whether UNC is deflated from its close Clemson loss, or angry about it.  We'll see, but I expect something like 24-10, bad guys.

Hope I'm wrong and we win, and as always, Let's Go Jackets!

Citadel Preview

This will be quick.  And mostly a USF review, because I don't know very much about the Citadel, and also, we are playing, I mean really, its the Citadel.  Supposed to be the only easy win we get all year, and it really needs to be an easy win.

South Florida was encouraging to me for a couple of reasons.  First, obviously, games where we'e won with defense have been few and far between for the past 11 years.  And secondly, it was just good to see this team fight and gut out a close win that could have gone the other way.  I am fairly concerned about the offense, which I still think is more talented than many others seem to think.  However, our offensive line is clearly not good, and we lost two starters from that unit in the first quarter to injury.  So it is difficult to evaluate the offense.  And it (hopefully) will still be difficult after tomorrow, as we should roll to a comfortable 45-14 win or something similar, even with a bad offense.  After the game tomorrow and 2 extra practice weeks before Temple, the Temple game should provide a much better chance to see where the offense is in its development. 

And to be clear, I expect a bad offense this season and that would not be a sign of much concern in my opinion.  The reason I'm concerned right now is I am worried we may be even worse than just bad.  The transition will be difficult, and we don't really have the right pieces to do what the current staff wants right now.  But I still believe our talent is good enough to cobble together just a regular "bad" offense, and not a terrible one.  South Florida is among the worst defenses we will face all year, and 250 yards and 14 points is... not good.  But, maybe we can chalk that up to the scrambling offensive line having to shuffle a couple players unexpectedly, and hopefully we will see continued improvement as the year goes on.  Otherwise, expect a lot of games where we score 7 or 10 points, and it'll be a long year.

But I'm optimistic that we can be bad, and not terrible. 

Anyway, as I said, I know next to nothing about the Citadel.  So far this year they have played two pretty good FCS teams (Elon and Towson) and lost both by just 1 TD each.  Recently, they have not been terribly good at the FCS level, going 5-6 last year.  They run option, which you think we'd be familiar defending.  They did play Bama respectably for a half last year (might have been more about Bama sleepwalking than the Citadel doing anything).  Ultimately, in their last 3 games vs FBS teams, they were eventually blown out, although two of those were Bama and Clemson.  (The third was UNC).  In 2015 they pulled one of the all time upsets in my opinion, beating South Carolina 23-22.  So, the unthinkable can happen, but I hope... HOPE... we have enough to make this a comfortable win.

As always, let's go Jackets!

South Florida Preview

The Clemson game was actually more or less what I expected, and I'm pretty happy with it.  We didn't play as well as I'd like on offense, but then again Clemson's defense is very disruptive.  But our defense looked pretty good in my opinion.  With the game "in doubt", in the first half, we allowed only 2 TD drives on 7 possessions (I'm discounting the two times that our offense/special teams gave the ball to Clemson at our own 10/15 yard line).  And both of those TDs were long plays.  We did not allow sustained drives, and I a pretty sure Clemson is a very good offense.  Even allowing for the week 1 "we are out of sync" etc... that's still pretty good.

We'll get to find out pretty quickly whether my suspicion is correct and our defense is much better.  South Florida is not a good offense.  We made them look very good last year, but really they are not terribly good on that side of the ball.  Actually, per the computers, they aren't very good on either side of the ball.  But I think they are better on defense than offense.  So we really should be able to get stops.  In particular, their offensive line is not very good.  We'll see if we can capitalize and get pressure on the QB.

On offense, I think we'll have a lot more fun this game.  Hard to glean too much from our offense versus Clemson.  Many have complained that we ran too much.  45 runs to 18 passes to be exact.  But I'd point out many of those "runs" were sacks or scrambles, but were called as pass plays.  Clemson's D line is hard to block.  I think it was probably close to 35 runs and 28 passes, maybe even more passes.  Let's see what the offense can do when we can block people.

Vegas has us favored by 6.5.  I actually think we cover that and possibly win by 14-17.  We'll see, but I still think we are better than anyone thinks we are.  I'm excited, and as always...

Let's go Jackets!

2019 Season Preview

Ok gang.  Sorry for the delay on this post.  I know you've all been anxiously awaiting my analysis. 

The truth is, I don't have a whole lot to analyze.  I really have very little idea what the new schemes are going to look like, or even who the new players will be.  We lost our best offensive lineman.  Kirvonte Benson transferred.  Parker Braun transferred.  Most of the names people would have heard of are gone.  We have several QBs back, but with the new scheme, who knows who is going to be playing?

Defensively, it is really the same story.  I can tell you this - the base scheme on defense will be a 4-2-5.  That's pretty normal these days given how much spread is being run.  You need that extra DB and more speed.  Actually, Ted Roof made the same change a couple years ago, so this isn't really a big deal.  Offensively, we are going to taylor our scheme to our players every year.  The new OC - Patenaude - does not have a set scheme.  I like that and I don't.  Its interesting and sounds good, but also I suspect that means Patenaude won't be an expert in what we are running.  We'll see if it works out or not. 

One thing is for sure, in a couple years, we'll have access to a talent level that GT hasn't seen since probably 2009.  Collins is recruiting great and shows no signs of slowing down.  Our current class is ranked #25 (which would be our 2nd best recruiting class since I started at GT in 2003).  Our commits have great offer sheets.  We are going up against, and apparently beating, national powers in recruiting.  I didn't really think that was realistically possible at GT in the modern landscape.  Let's hope he can keep it going and maybe even get better.

But that's for the future.  Right now, we have our current players.  And the preseason magazines and other pundits are sure we have very little talent.  We are supposed to go 3-9 and finish 7th in the Coastal.  The last time we were picked 3-9 in preseason, UGA was a national title contender (sound familiar?) and we beat them in Athens, to get to 9-3.  That was 2008.  I wish I could see that happening this year, but I can't.  For one, we play UGA in Atlanta.  (ha ha ha).  But seriously, I don't think we have any Dwyers or Demaryius Thomas' in hiding on the bench.  I do however think our players are better than many others do.  I think our talent is "fine".  Not great.  Not even good.  But fine. 

I predict we will fare better than 7th in the Coastal, and win more than 3 games.  I think we go 5-7 actually.  We need one extra upset for a bowl game.  Here is to hoping we get it. 

If you want specifics, I think we beat the Citadel, lose to UGA and Clemson, and the other games are some degree of tossup.  I don't think any of them are games we can't win, or can't lose.  I think Temple, S. Fla., UNC, Pitt and Duke are our best chances to win, but we could win any of them.  We will lose several as well.  I think we go 4-5 in these 9 games, and finish up 5-7.

That is not good in my opinion, but given the transition, is acceptable for Coach Collins year 1.  However, I hope I'm underselling this team.  Either way, I doubt we know very much this time tomorrow, because Clemson can make really good teams look not very good.  I expect a blowout, but I hope to see signs of life.

As always, Let's go Jackets!

Bowl Preview

Well here we are.  Paul Johnson's last game.  I'm disappointed.  He had a good run, and I know many fans have grown tired of the offense and (lack of) defense.  But I'll miss watching the option.

Geoff Collins looks to me like a great hire.  The only real question mark is that he hasn't been a head coach very long.  But GT, in the current landscape, isn't likely to hire a guy who has been a head coach for 5+ years (at the FBS level anyway) and has done well consistently.  A guy like that will usually get better jobs.

Geoff Collins has a very solid resume, and has done well in 2 years at Temple.  He has been at GT for two separate stints, under O'Leary and Gailey, so he should understand the unique challenges posed by GT.  He has also been at Alabama under Saban, and been the defensive coordinator for 6 years combined, for good teams at Miss. St. and Florida.  That's a very solid resume.  His defense's ranked as follows, per football outsiders (opponent adjusted efficiency ratings):

2016 - 6th (Florida)
2015 - 22nd (Florida)
2014 - 20th (Miss. St)
2013 - 14th (Miss. St.)
2012 - 47th (Miss. St.)
2011 - 26th (Miss. St.)

Not bad.  Just the one "down" year, but that year was still very solid by our standards (47th nationally).  The other years were very good.  Granted he had access to better talent than he'll likely get at GT, especially at Florida.  That may not be true at Miss. St., but we'll see how he can recruit.  All signs point to success there.  He's a young, energetic, personable guy, and has a reputation for being all about social media.  Apparently that's what the kids are all into these days (obligatory "get off my lawn" post here - I'm 34 but I freely admit I already don't understand 20 year olds these days).  Supposedly Geoff Collins is a great recruiter though.  We'll see.  But I'm excited.


As for Minnesota, I know nothing about their personnel.  Statistically, they are a good defense and bad offense.  I generally don't like that matchup for us, because our defense usually manages to allow anyone to score.  Other teams we played that fit that profile include Miami, UVA and Duke.  We did well against Miami, poorly against Duke, and you could argue we were lucky to beat UVA.  I expect this game will look like UVA.  We will need help from the special teams and defense to win.

We should be able to score some.  Minnesota's defense is good but not great.  38th nationally.  But they also had the extra time to get ready, for whatever that's worth (according to my statistical analysis in the past, its not worth much at all).  Their offense is down in the 80's.  Our offense is 17th, but our defense is 105th or so.

The actual numbers suggest a very even game.  Our opponent adjusted offense per possession score is 2.91, meaning we score that much per possession against a theoretically average defense.  Minnesota is at 2.01.  So our offense is much better.  But their defense is 1.92, while ours is 2.74.  So our offense is 0.9 points better, but our defense is 0.82 points worse.  Suggesting, in a 10 possession game, we should win by 1 point.  That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

Vegas has us favored by 5-6.  I hope they know something I don't.  I see a complete toss up.  And perhaps even Minnesota winning.

But, as always, Let's go Jackets.  Hope we send Paul Johnson out the right way.

UGA preview

My bad on not making a post last week.  Just didn't get around to it.

Anyway, couple of great wins.  Miami was a truly great offensive performance.  27 points on 8 possessions against what is a really good defense.  GT's defense and special teams played well enough to win.

UVA was a true team effort.  And the first game in a long time where I think special teams was the best unit.  Defense played a horrible half and a really good half.  Offense was ok.  Not great, but good enough to win with help from a full team effort.

Unfortunately, now we have UGA.  I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see much hope here.  Our offense is very good.  Top 15 or so nationally.  And their defense isn't as good as last year.  They are only about 20th or 25th best in the country.  But that's still good enough to slow us down some.  I expect us to score somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0 points per possession, probably.  And that's really not bad.

But UGA's offense is loaded.  Top 5 nationally.  Top 5 in both rushing (yards per carry) and passing (passer rating).  They have no weaknesses.   And our defense isn't good.   I'm worried we'll struggle to force third down, sort of like 2012.

I expect after 8 possessions or so, we'll have between 17 and 24 points.  But I'm afraid they'll have 40+.   They are just loaded on offense.  And after 8 possessions, the game will likely be into the 4th quarter and nearly over, since both teams will likely be moving the ball and eating clock. 

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.  As always, Let's go Jackets!

Miami Preview

Well, we made it interesting, but in the end I wasn't off by much.  45-31 prediction, 38-28 final score.  You gotta take that kinda prediction result wherever you can get it.  Of course I'd have preferred us to keep that comfortable lead and never let the game get in doubt, but that just isn't who GT is apparently.

Anyway, on to Miami.  We are somehow favored by 4 points.  Miami is collapsing I guess.  While not playing terribly, they haven't looked like a good team since UNC.  The last 4 games, they barely beat FSU, and then lost by 1 or 2 scores to UVA, BC and then Duke.  We'll see if we can keep that trend going.

Football Outsiders has their stats up for the season finally, so I'm going to walk through the matchup with their advance stats.

First, our offense (ranked #11) versus Miami's defense (ranked #10).  

Overall efficiency - we generate 3.26 points per drive (adjusted for field position).   This ranks 9th nationally.  They allow 1.32, which is 7th nationally.

Offensive drive success rate - 48.8% of our drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should.  This is 11th nationally.  They allow 22.7%, which is 16th nationally.

Available yards - we have gained 60.4% of available yards on the season, which is 9th nationally.  They have given up 34.3% of available yards, or 10th nationally.

First down rate - 80.5% of our drives result in at least one first down, which is 11th nationally.  They allow at least one first down on 64.9% of drives, which is 20th nationally. 

Touch down rate - We score a TD on 45.1% of our drives, which is 5th nationally.  They allow a TD on 15.5% of drives, which is 13th nationally.

TD after first down - On drives where we get at least 1 first down, we score a TD on 56.1% of our drives, which is 9th nationally.  They allow 23.8% TDs in this situation, which is 11th nationally.

Ball control - 75.6% of our drives last at least 4 plays, which is 5th nationally.  They allow 60.8%, which is 23rd nationally.

Turnovers - 13.4% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 98th nationally.   They force turnovers on 14.4% of drives, which is 27th nationally.


So Miami's defense is consistently good at everything, and is the best defense we will play all season except Clemson (currently UGA is next, ranked 24th, so not even that close).  Our offense is consistently good at everything, except turnovers.

Looking over all categories, this should be a really good battle.  Turnovers will be key.  We are bad at ball security.  Miami is good at taking the ball away, though no better at that than they are at everything else.

Points will be tough to come by against this defense, so we definitely can't afford to waste possessions.  We also don't want to give the ball to a bad offense in good field position, particularly with how bad our own defense is.  Must take care of the ball.

Moving on to...

our defense (ranked 95th) versus Miami's offense (ranked #86).  

Overall efficiency - they generate 1.9 points per drive (adjusted for field position).   This ranks 92nd nationally.  We allow 2.44, which ranks 86th.

Offensive drive success rate - 29.6% of their drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should.  This is 87th nationally.  We allow 39.7%, which is 95th nationally.

Available yards - they have gained 41.2% of available yards on the season, which is 96th nationally.  We allow 49.2%, which is 91st nationally.

First down rate - 67.3% of their drives result in at least one first down, which is 101st nationally.  We allow 78.2%, which is 106th nationally.

Touch down rate - They score a TD on 24.5% of their drives, which is 84th nationally.  We allow 33.3%, which is 97th nationally.

TD after first down - On drives where they get at least 1 first down, they score a TD on 36.4% of our drives, which is 75th nationally.  We allow 42.6%, which is 83rd nationally.

Ball control - 63.3% of their drives last at least 4 plays, which is 89th nationally.  We allow 74.4%, which is 121st nationally.

Turnovers - 14.3% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 109th nationally.  We force turnovers on 17.9% of drives, which is 5th nationally.


Turnovers really tell the story here.  Once again, both teams are consistently even across all categories (here, both roughly equally BAD).  Except turnovers.  They are terrible at taking care of the ball, and we are great at taking the ball away.  Based on this, we should expect to force a turnover on one of every 6 possessions or so.  And we will need it.  Assuming a 12 possession game, we need at least two turnovers forced.

Otherwise it looks like a pretty even game.  I generally favor Miami's situation here.  I'd rather have a bad offense trying to score on a bad defense, than a good offense trying to score on a good defense.  But we'll see.  This looks an awful lot like a game where the turnover battle decides the outcome.

I'll call it 28-24, to whoever win the turnovers.  I'll pick GT.

As always, Let's Go Jackets!

UNC Preview

Ok so more excellent analysis from me.  Nailed that VT prediction.  31-21 VT just like I said.

Obviously, this team (really this whole division) is difficult to predict.  Speaking of this division, GT technically could still win the Coastal this year.  I guess we are as good as anybody else, from a "good for the ACC" point of view.  Which is just to say that nobody in the Coastal is any good.

UVA - lost to Indiana (currently 4-5 and #68 in Massey).
Pitt - lost by 31 to UCF and 45 to Penn St.
VT - lost to 2-7 Old Dominion at home.
Miami - blown out by LSU (although that's not really embarrassing in this context)
GT - lost to South Florida (#57 in Massey currently)
UNC - lost to East Carolina, Cal and a bunch of teams.

Really Duke is the best we've got.  They won their non conference games.  Although they lost to UVA, Pitt and VT. 

Basically the Coastal is a pile of hot garbage.  Whoever wins it will be "embarrassing" for the ACC.  Like, oh, that's your champ?  So, might as well be us.  If we win out, we actually might do it.  I know, I know, big if.

So, let's try not to lose immediately.  UNC is not good.  Not good at all.  But its a road game, and stope me if you've heard this before, but with a defense as bad as ours, you can lose almost any game. 

Seriously though, UNC is awful.  They have managed to keep several games close, but their defense is currently ranked #108 by football outsiders, and their offense is #92.  Breathtaking.  Neither unit has a pulse. 

So pretty much the usual for GT when playing a bad ACC team, meaning:

1 - we should score a ton
2 - we need to execute and not turn the ball over, and if we do that, we will score a ton
3 - they should not score much, if our defense plays well
4 - you can never depend on #3
5 - a couple untimely turnovers and we may find ourselves in a tough game


Let's hope for a Louisville/VT-like shellacking and a nice relaxing fourth quarter.  I'll call it 45-31, good guys.

As always, Let's Go Jackets!

Virginia Tech Preview

Well, sorry gang.  My indifference came early this year.  Clemson was exactly what I expected.  I just didn't care about Bowling Green.  And I thought both Louisville and Duke would be close games down to the wire, so you probably miss my "analysis" much. 

However, I'm back.  I guess.  A little too close to game time but here we are.

Virginia Tech is not normal Virginia Tech.  Can't really figure out what is with them.  They have played well in ACC play, mostly (except for escaping barely against a really bad UNC team).  They have played horribly outside of ACC play, in particular losing to Old Dominion.  Their trademark defense is not nearly as good as normal.  In fact, it is significantly worse than Duke's in my opinion, so our offense should have more success tonight.  (Of course, Duke lost to VT 31-14 in typical "ACC Wheel of Destiny" fashion). 

Our defense, which played very well against Duke, has still been mostly miserable this year and our special teams have been worse.  As such, I expect a loss, something like 31-21.   This year is shaping up a lot like 2015 in my opinion.  We spend all year seemingly being better than our record, and repeatedly getting spreads from Vegas that make GT fans confused (we were favored against all of South Florida, Pitt and Duke).  This spread tonight is only about 3 or 4 points, with VT being favored, meaning Vegas thinks this would be a pick-em on a neutral field.  That's odd.  I wonder what they know that I don't.

Anyway, I digress.  2015 was a year where we could have been better but just kept making late game mistakes and finding ways to lose.  Same thing this team has done really.  Just can't get it together.  We are capable of playing better, but probably won't. 

I hope we win more than 3 games this year, but right now I'd say 4-8 or maybe 5-7 is the best we can hope for.  And 3-9 is not out of the question.  6-6 seems unreachable, but I hope I'm wrong.

Let's go Jackets!

Clemson Preview

Disaster start to this season.  South Florida and Pitt were both winnable games and we needed to win at least one, and maybe both, to have a shot at a decent record.  Now we are looking at 1-3, because we aren't going to beat Clemson.  This game, every unit played poorly in the first half, and every unit played pretty well in the second half, but that wasn't enough.  This team continues to do just enough to lose.  Its hard to win on the road but you can't be a good team unless you can win on the road. 

I'm not going to bother analyzing this game too closely.  Clemson's defensive front is simply too good.  There is nothing really that we can do.  They are vulnerable to a spread passing team that repeatedly threatens with downfield passing.  But you need to be very good at that in order to trouble Clemson, and even then you might not.  That isn't what we do and so of course we aren't very good at it.  Even teams who are good at it often get beaten easily by this defense though.

Clemson's offense hasn't really impressed that much.  I'm sure they'll have enough firepower to score on our defense, but hopefully we can get some stops.  I just want something semi respectable like 31-10 maybe. 

As always, let's go jackets.  But I'm not excited about this one. 

Pittsburgh Preview

Well that was a disaster.

We continued our road losing streak and our troubling trend from last year of throwing away double digit second half leads.  Special teams were awful.  Obviously, you can't give up two kickoff returns.  The defense was mostly awful.  35 points allowed on 10 possessions is fairly terrible.  The offense was pretty good (38 points on 13 possessions) but sputtered in the 4th quarter, and of course there was the key fumble when had a chance to restore the 10 point lead late.  Hard to blame the offense for its performance over the whole game, but that's yet another huge mistake with the game on the line.

Pretty much nothing went right.

Pittsburgh is coming off their own debacle.  A 44 point curb stomping at the hands of their supposed rival, I guess.  Not sure if Penn St. feels the same way, but Pittsburgh hates them.  I guess we can relate.  In any event, Pitt looks terrible too.  We are actually favored by about a FG.  I have no idea what to make of this game, and that's only compounded by the location at Pitt.  That stadium annually produces some very weird results, both in college and pro games.  I consider it, along with Iowa, as college football's bermuda triangle of sorts.  Both places lived up to the billing last year, as Miami and Ohio St. were upset in shocking fashion and, in Ohio St's case, knocked out of the playoff.  But Pitt and Iowa have been pulling upsets like that for a long time.

This, of course, would be no "shocking" upset.  But still, weird things happen there.

More importantly, we don't know much about either team, except that neither is very good.  We might still be pretty good (we'll see how USF turns out), but my guess is we are a 6-6 or 5-7 or 7-5 kinds team.  If I'm right, this could end up being a crucial game in terms of making it to a bowl.  We already have one loss.  Clemson and UGA look like 2 more.  Miami and VT won't be easy. Duke looks solid so far.  There aren't too many probable wins on the schedule.  So we need to win more than our fair share of toss ups.

Here is one.

As always, let's go jackets!

South Florida Preview

Its always hard to tell much from an FCS game, but I did like the way the defensive scheme looked.  We look like we are planning to attack more.  We'll see if that translates into results.

Offense looked ok.  Not great.  A little sloppy with turnovers.  Need to clean that up.  Would like to see the O line play a little better.  But, it was fine I guess.

Going into this week, I don't really know much about South Florida.  Willie Taggart built up the program to a pretty good level before he moved to Oregon and then FSU.  South Florida was 10-2 last year.  They played a VERY weak schedule, but they did win 10 games I guess.

I think we are probably the slightly better team, but South Florida is a legitimate program.  I would say they are probably on Wake Forest's level or so, talent wise.  Maybe actually a little better.  Meaning we probably should win (and we are favored, opened around 6, down to 3.5 now).  But they could definitely win, especially at home.

I'll be happy with any win here.  I don't care if its pretty.  Charlie Strong is a good coach.  He's in his first year, so not sure how much influence he has had so far.  But normally he is a very good defensive coach.  South Florida runs a spread offense but with a new QB.  So a lot of question marks.  I just hope we execute well and play smart football.  If we do that, we should be OK. 

As always, let's go Jackets!