Stats

Friday, December 30, 2011

Bowl Game - Utah Preview

As I often do, I’ll start by looking at Sagarin’s ratings. They are not perfect, but they are a good starting point, and are generally better than most other places you could look, because they are free of any personal biases.


Unfortunately, Sagarin believes Utah is 4.5 points better than GT on a neutral field.


Strange, particularly when you consider that Vegas has GT favored by about 3 points. Wonder what they know that I don’t? Because my perception is that Utah probably is slightly better. And Utah has a history of performing well in bowl games, both under their current coach and in general, and GT, well, to put it mildly, we have not played well in bowl games in the recent past. And that is true both with Paul Johnson and without him.


Anyway, here is a look at how both teams were trending to end the season. I’ll start with GT. Obviously, we started 6-0 and finished 2-4. However, many people attributed our worse record to tougher competition, and said that we did not play any worse.


Is that true? Well, here is a look at how we did on the season.



GT Opponent

Sagarin Rank

Sagarin Prediction

Actual Outcome

Difference

Western Carolina

221

GT by 42

GT by 42

0

MTSU

168

GT by 22

GT by 28

+6

Kansas

90

GT by 14

GT by 42

+28

UNC

51

GT by 5

GT by 7

+2

NC State

66

GT by 1

GT by 10

+9

Maryland

99

GT by 13

GT by 5

-8

UVA

67

GT by 1

UVA by 3

-4

Miami

43

Miami by 8

Miami by 17

-9

Clemson

24

Clemson by 3

GT by 14

+17

Virginia Tech

26

VT by 3

VT by 11

-8

Duke

109

GT by 9

GT by 7

-2

UGA

18

UGA by 8

UGA by 14

-6




The Sagarin “predictions” above are based upon our actual performances for the season, so if we had played perfectly consistently all season, the “Difference” column should in theory read “0” all the way down. (That is not exactly accurate, mostly because our opponents do not play perfectly consistently either, but basically that is true).


So, you can see that we did in fact play a tougher schedule in the second half (as is pretty obvious).


BUT, we also performed worse relative to our schedule in the second half. With the exception of the Clemson game, we underachieved based upon our season as a whole in every single game after Week 5. In Weeks 2 through 5, however, we overachieved in every single game.


This is consistent with what I said all year, that we lack depth. As the season wore on, we were beaten down more than other teams, and thus, relative to everyone else, we got worse as the year progressed.


Does that explain 100% of the reason why we played worse as the season progressed? Provably not. There are other possible explanations, but I would bet this was a very significant factor.


The good news is that with 5 weeks off before the bowl game, we should be well rested and might have returned to our early season form.



Now lets look at Utah...



Utah Opponent

Sagarin Rank

Sagarin Prediction

Actual Outcome

Difference

Montana St.

94

Utah by 19

Utah by 17

-2

USC

10

USC by 13

USC by 9

+4

BYU

44

BYU by 1

Utah by 44

+45

Washington

47

Utah by 6

Wash by 17

-23

Arizona St.

39

Utah by 2

Ariz. St. by 21

-23

Pitt

55

Tie

Utah by 12

+12

California

31

Cal by 5

Cal by 24

-19

Oregon St.

83

Utah by 13

Utah by 19

+6

Arizona

64

Utah by 2

Utah by 13

+11

UCLA

60

Utah by 10

Utah by 25

+15

Wash St.

80

Utah by 6

Utah by 3

-3

Colorado

104

Utah by 19

Colorado by 3

-22




Hard to get much of a read there. The closest thing they had to a “trend” was 3 positives games in a row from Week 8 to Week 10. But, they were all over the map, and often Utah won or lost by MUCH more than predicted.



On paper, this game is a terrible matchup for GT. Utah has a great defense. They lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense, and are in the top half of pretty much every major defensive category. They have a stout defensive line. They are good against the run. On offense, they do not pass much. They have a good power running game, and rely heavily on their primary back.


So, basically, they are good at stopping what we do, and we are not very good at stopping what they do.


On the plus side, their offense is atrocious. They only average 300 yards per game, and only score 24 points a game. They are 78th in scoring offense nationally, 110th in total offense, and 97th in yards per play.



Here is a look at Utah’s offense and defense. I looked only at conference games to get these averages, because I think games like Montana St. throw off the numbers.



Utah Offense




Points

Total Yards

Yards per Play

Averages allowed by Utah’s opponents

31

414.33

6.05

Utah’s averages

20.88

297.89

4.98



So you can see Utah’s offensive numbers are not good.


Now, Utah’s defense.




Points

Total Yards

Yards per Play

Averages gained by Utah’s opponents

28.53

412.55

5.91

Utah’s averages allowed

22.44

377.44

5.23




And here you can see that Utah’s defense was impressive. They held their Pac-12 opponents well below their normal output.



For comparison’s sake, here is GT’s offense:




Points

Total Yards

Yards per Play

Averages allowed by GT’s opponents

25.1

374.88

5.51

GT’s averages

28

391.75

5.70



So you can our offense is a decent amount above average. We score about a FG more than our opponents allow, and gain a little more in both total yards and yards per play.


And here is GT’s defense:




Points

Total Yards

Yards per Play

Averages gained by GT’s opponents

26.7

389.5

5.63

GT’s averages allowed

26.5

372.25

5.71



Somewhat surprisingly, our defense is actually slightly above average, at least in every category except yards per play. But we are near average in all 3.



So, this game matches very good defense against pretty good offense, and average defense against bad offense.


Overall, it sounds pretty even. My gut is that we will struggle, for several reasons:


1 - The matchups for us are poor. Utah’s offense is bad, but what they do well (power running) is our weakness.


2 - This is a bowl game, and GT has not done well lately in bowls, particularly under CPJ. Utah has done very well in bowls of late, particularly under Whittingham.


3 - The computers agree that Utah is somewhat better.




As I discussed in my VT game preview, it does appear that the 5 weeks of prep time leading up to a bowl game has a negative effect on our offense. I don’t know if it hurts our timing, or if it allows the opposing defense too much time to prepare, or what the problem is, but it definitely appears that our offense has problems when the opponents have 5 weeks to get ready. Granted, 3 games is a small sample size, but our offense has now scored 3, 7 and 7 points in 3 bowl games. Thats not good.



However, perhaps an overlooked factor is the effect that 5 weeks has on our defense. In his one bowl game for us thus far, Groh’s defense performed much better than expected. But for a fumbled punt at our own 14 yard line, we may well have held Air Force to 6 points for the game.


Utah is not a very good offense. I am hoping our defense can shut them down. I am afraid we will need to do so in order to have a chance here.


Looking objectively at the evidence (Utah has a good defense, a very good D-Line, and the bowl game issue) I don’t see how our offense will score more than maybe 14 or 17 points. And that may be generous.


However, last year we should have beaten Air Force had we not lost the turnover battle 4-0. And Air Force was very similar to Utah this year, they were “supposed” to win according to Sagarin by about 5 or 6 points.


I think if we avoid the big mistakes, and win or draw the turnover battle, we will have a shot to pull out a low scoring game.


I’ll predict GT by a field goal, something like 13-10 or 17-14. But if we fumble at Utah’s 5 yard line, then fumble two successive punts and set them up in our red zone (like last year with Air Force) then we’ll lose.


Here is hoping we can avoid that result, play a good game, and end this bowl losing streak.


Let’s Go Jackets!

Friday, November 25, 2011

Week 12 - UGA Preview

This preview won’t be as thorough as usual. My apologies. I know all my readers (both of you) will be devastated. But, its Thanksgiving, and I’ve been “relaxing”.


Also, you may have noticed no Duke review happened. I may or may not get that up at some point. The gist is we started flat and never really played inspired football. Even still, we beat them worst than the final score indicated. We just found ways to keep it close. Oh well, it was a win.


But, enough of that. On to the real game.


Georgia may be the best team we have played all season. If you believe the computers, they are the best team we have played all season.


And they appear to me to be playing their best football late in the season (doesn’t it seem like this always happens with them?).


Let’s take a look to see just exactly how the computers view UGA and GT. I’ll use Sagarin. Below is a chart showing how UGA actually did in its games, how Sagarin thinks UGA should have done based on the rest of the season, and how GT would have done according to Sagarin.


The reason I include how UGA “Should have” done according to Sagarin is that it allows you to see where UGA’s good and bad games occurred. So you can see whether they really are peaking.



UGA Opponent

UGA Result

UGA Expected Result

UGA Actual - UGA Expected

GT Expected Result Against Same Opponent

Boise St.

Loss by 14

Lose by 6

-8

Lose by 16

South Carolina

Loss by 3

Win by 4

-7

Lose by 6

Coastal Carolina

Win by 59

Win by 43

+16

Win by 33

Ole Miss

Win by 14

Win by 21

-7

Win by 11

Miss. St.

Win by 14

Win by 12

+2

Win by 2

Tennessee

Win by 8

Win by 9

-1

Lose by 1

Vanderbilt

Win by 5

Win by 8

-3

Lose by 2

Florida

Win by 4

Win by 7

-3

Lose by 3

New Mexico St.

Win by 47

Win by 30

+17

Win by 20

Auburn

Win by 38

Win by 16

+22

Win by 6

Kentucky

Win by 9

Win by 25

-16

Win by 15





Coastal Carolina and New Mexico St. appear to be clear outliers. So I’ll discount them. Clearly, UGA can perform better than expected when they have physically overwhelming talent. Doesn’t tell us much.


If you ignore the Coastal Carolina game, then UGA started the season with 3 of its 4 worst performances of the season. Then they settled in and played about as expected for a few games, before exploding against Auburn for by far UGA’s best game of the season.


So they went from bad to average to really good.


Of course, then they played their worst game of the season against Kentucky. Maybe they were flat. Who knows? But up until that game, I see a clear UGA trend of playing better as the season progresses.


Also of note, GT allegedly would be 6-5 against UGA’s schedule. Although, Auburn, Miss. St., Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Florida would be very close games. We would be 4-2 in decisive games with 5 close ones. For whatever that is worth.


Here is a look at the same chart from GT’s perspective:




GT Opponent

GT Result

GT Expected Result

GT Actual - GT Expected

UGA Expected Result Against Same Opponent

Western Carolina

Win by 42

Win by 35

+7

Win by 45

Middle Tenn St.

Win by 28

Win by 22

+6

Win by 32

Kansas

Win by 42

Win by 16

+26

Win by 26

UNC

Win by 7

Win by 2

+5

Win by 12

NC St.

Win by 10

Win by 1

+9

Win by 11

Maryland

Win by 5

Win by 13

-8

Win by 23

Virginia

Lose by 3

Lose by 1

-2

Win by 9

Miami

Lose by 17

Lose by 9

-8

Win by 1

Clemson

Win by 14

Tie

+14

Win by 10

Virginia Tech

Lose by 11

Lose by 3

-8

Win by 7

Duke

Win by 7

Win by 10

-3

Win by 20




So, you’ll notice we are playing worse as the season progresses. Not good. And I don’t really have any idea why. But its a clear trend. We did better than expected in our first 5 games, and worse than expected in the rest except the Clemson game.


You’ll also notice some things that may surprise some people. Supposedly, we were supposed to tie Clemson at home. In other words, Clemson was not really all that good.


We were also supposed to lose by 1 and 9 to UVA and Miami on the road. Maybe those were not the “upsets” we thought they were. In hindsight, those results maybe were fairly accurate.


Also of note, supposedly UGA would be unbeaten against our schedule. My guess is they would have slipped up and lost to somebody. Miami, UVA, Clemson and VT all would have been losable games, and I bet they would have lost at least one. But they probably would have a record better than 8-3.



Sagarin predicts that UGA wins this game by 7 points. Unfortunately, that is basically in line with what I expect. I would like to be able to make a good argument for why we win, but I just don’t see it.


UGA’s run defense is MUCH improved and very good. I am holding out hope that they are still not very disciplined, so maybe we can have some success with the option and forcing them to bust assignments. But they will be hard to block.


They are also the best running attack (probably) that we have faced all season. Their O-Line may not be much better than UNC, UVA or VT, but its probably at least as good. We will have our hands full trying to stop their rushing attack. And of course, they can play action and have Aaron Murray throwing it, who is one of the better QB’s we have seen this season.


We will need a very good effort from our defense.


And special teams has the potential to be disastrous, per usual.


In short, we will need to play a very good game in all phases in order to win.


On the plus side, its a rivalry game. Many people say “in a rivalry game, you can throw out the records and the stats... none of it matters”. And they say that for good reason. In a rivalry game, teams get renewed passion. It does not really matter if you have been playing poorly lately because you lost a couple of games and threw away a chance at the conference title. In a rivalry game, its pretty easy to forget everything else. Winning makes the whole season better, no matter what else is happening.


Additionally, UGA may be distracted somewhat by the SEC title game they have next week.


Finally, they probably expect to win. So we may have a motivation advantage.


We will need all of those advantages to come true, and still play a good game in order to pull the upset.


My official prediction, sadly, is a close game that UGA wins in the end, just like the last 3 years.


Hope I am wrong.


Let’s Go Jackets!!