Duke Preview

Botched it up again last week.  Wasn't really in the mood to post after the UVA debacle.  In hindsight maybe not a terrible loss, but not good.  UVA isn't terribly good.  So even though it was on the road, that was a game we probably should have won.  Don't think the rain helped us much, but you've still got to make plays. 

Another frustrating loss, made even more frustrating (to me) by the VT win.  Which we should have won by 14-20 points but instead nearly choked away.  There is just something about this team.  Really, we are pretty good.  But we just find ways to lose, or nearly lose.  We could easily be 8-1 right now, and that hypothetical 8-1 is all the more impressive now that we see how good Miami is. 

Tennessee was simply a horrible loss.  UVA not a good one.  Miami a good loss maybe but still a game that was there for the taking.  Double digit leads in the second half of all of them. 

So, since we have yet to win a single game this year anywhere but Bobby Dodd, I hesitate to predict a win.  Even though we should beat Duke.  I'm worried.  Of course, I would gladly continue the pattern for two more weeks (no wins on the road, no losses at home).  But given how unlikely a win over UGA looks, I'd rather go ahead and lock up a bowl this weekend. 

Duke's offense is bad.  In between #85 and #100 or so nationally based on the computer models I follow.  Their defense is good though, about 30-40th nationally.  Our offense and defense are both about 25-30th nationally.  Duke does have the edge in special teams according to football outsiders (the only model I know of that ranks special teams).  Duke is 89th, while we are 124th nationally (out of 130 teams).  That may be where some of our "hidden" failures have been this season.  We have close to the worst special teams in the country. 

Anyway, I guess I predict a win, because we should win, but I don't feel good about it.  Just don't have much confidence in this team to do what its supposed to do.  We'll see. 

As always, Go Jackets!

UVA Preview

Well I botched it up last week.  Didn't get around to posting at all.  I was pretty sure our offense would look a lot like 2016 against Clemson, so I wasn't really excited about analyzing the game.  And I was right.  That front is just really good.  I didn't really even have a major problem with that performance.  Just hard to do much when the other guys are that big and fast. 

Anyway, on to this week.  Charlottesville is not exactly a place GT fans generally remember fondly.  We've only won there twice since 1990.  Fortunately, both have been recent (2009 and 2013) so maybe we are turning that tide.  2011 was an upset loss and 2015 was a game we probably should have won, even though it came during the bad year where everything went wrong and we finished 3-9.  Hopefully we can exorcise some of those memories this weekend.

UVA isn't all that good.  But - and stop me if you've heard this before - they are a mediocre ACC team that is tough to predict.  For example, Duke and Indiana are about the same quality, and UVA beat one at home by 7, and lost to the other at home by 17.  Boise St. is better than Pitt, but UVA went on the road and lost to Pitt by 17, after going on the road and beating Boise by 20.  They also somewhat inexplicably lost by 31 at home to Boston College.  Don't get me wrong, BC is pretty good, and maybe even should have won at UVA, but not by 30. 

So, it'll depend what UVA team shows up tomorrow.  UVA is fairly consistently mediocre.  Not really good at anything, not terrible at anything.  Their offense and defense are both in the 50-80 range according to football outsiders and Massey.  Meaning we have a better offense and a better defense (our offense and defense are ranked in the 15-45 range by those two).  Massey predicts us to win 35-20, and says we have an 87% chance to win.

I think that's about right.  We should win.  We are better and it really isn't that close.  But, this is the ACC with its wheel of destiny, and we are GT (never really a dominant team that can chalk up easy wins).  So we better be ready to fight for it.  But if normal UVA shows up, we shouldn't have too much trouble.

I predict a close game for about a half, and then a comfortable GT win.  As always, let's go Jackets!