NC State Preview - Week 5

I’m worried.

The only real reason I am worried is that everything is perfectly in place for us to be flat and lay an egg this weekend.

Consider:

1 - We are coming off a big win, in a close game.

2 - It was our first “big” game of the year.

3 - Before the season started, everyone thought we would lose.

4 - Many still thought we would lose Saturday

5 - We are now getting a lot of respect in the media.

6 - We are double digit favorites on the road.

7 - NC State looked atrocious last week on National TV.

8 - Our players probably all watched that game.

9 - NC State will want desperately to regroup at home.

10 - NC State will be very motivated by last week’s embarrassment.

Take any 3 or 4 of those factors and you usually should fear a team not playing its best.

I believe our young team has a lot of CPJ’s personality, and has a very good attitude and work ethic. But, that attitude will be tested this weekend. College football players are college kids. Football player are human. It is difficult, psychologically, to be ready to play your best in the face of all the above factors. Our players know that, so far this year, NC State has not been nearly as good as UNC. And we just beat UNC. And we made some silly mistakes that left points on the field, and we still beat UNC.

I really hope that our players do the following:

1 - Listen to the coaching staff. I am sure that CPJ and Al Groh and the rest of the staff have been telling our guys all week that NC State is not as bad as they have played (this is true). They have good players. They recruit reasonably well, and they have some athletes.

2 - Remember last year. NC State delivered maybe our most embarrassing loss last year. Give up 45 points at home? Lose by 17 after being favored by 9 going into the game? Surely our players remember how that felt.

3 - Realize that we are simply not a dominant team, and we can’t afford to take anybody lightly.

#3 is not meant to be a slight to us. There are not very many dominant college teams. Maybe 10, or 15, teams truly have the talent and are complete enough as a team where they can sleepwalk into a conference game on the road and still win.

Most teams in the country are not that much better than their competition, in terms of talent and athleticism anyway.

I think we are a good team that is capable of doing some special things this year.

But, the fact remains that we are not good enough to sleepwalk and beat anybody left on the schedule. Normally, I would say maybe Duke, but this Duke team looks better than usual.

There are a handful of games we should win relatively easy if we play up to our potential, but they are all a very possible loss if we are not mentally ready to play.

So, this will be a familiar theme from me this year. This won’t be the last time I talk about showing up ready to play.

I do believe we are more talented than NC State, and better coached. Although, surprisingly given their results to this point, its close. They do have talent, and their coaching staff is not bad.

The number one reason they have been so bad is simply injuries. Especially on defense. I believe they are missing 4 starters and 3 more on the two deep. And the starters they are missing are good starters. Their top 2 defensive linemen, and arguably their best linebacker. It would be difficult for most any team to overcome those losses. A team with the depth of Alabama could probably do it, but even that kind of team would take a hit. Most teams would have a hard time fielding a decent defense under such circumstances.

The offense is a little harder to explain. NC State is bad running the ball. I mean real bad. They have only gained 340 yards on the season so far. (Yes we average more than that per game). They average 2.83 yards per carry. That is 107th out of 120 teams. And two of their games were against Liberty and South Alabama. So, bad. They also were held to negative 26 yards against Cincy for the game (not a typo).

Their passing game is more dangerous. They are averaging 279 yards a game, good for 33rd in the country. They have not played the toughest schedule (although neither have we), but still, they have plenty of talent in the passing game. Glennon, their QB, is very talented. He lacks experience and its not clear if he is mature enough to beat a good defense yet, but he is clearly talented and if given time can hurt you. (Also, it is far from clear that we are good defense anyway).

They also have talented wide receivers, led by TJ Graham, one of the fastest and best players in the conference.

Given how much they have struggled running the ball, you would hope our defense could limit their running game, and then just blitz all day. If we are able to do that, I expect Groh to dial up some pretty good stuff, and Attaochu will probably go off again and have a very good day. We can be successful and really limit State’s offense. But that is only if we can play the run very well. If we let them establish the run, they will likely be able to score points.

Even if that is the case, we should be able to outscore them.

Their rushing defense on paper looks pretty good. They have allowed only 139 yards per game, and 3.83 yards per carry.

However, you can’t ignore the schedule in analyzing those stats.

Here is a look at what the teams they have played did against NC State, and what they have done the rest of the year:

Team	Rushing Yards (against NC State)	Yards Per Carry (Against NC State)	Rushing Yards per Game (Season)	Rushing Yards Per Carry (Season)
Liberty	111	3.47	103.5	3.5
Wake Forest	101	2.97	110	2.75
South Alabama	104	3.15	151.8	4.2
Cincinnati	240	5.22	239.25	5.77

So, you can see, not real impressive. They pretty much allow teams to rush for their average on the season, and their average per carry. Could be a big day for our rushing offense.

Here is a similar look in terms of total offense.

Team	Total Offense Against NC State	Yards Per Play Against NC State	Total Offense (Season)	Yards Per Play (Season)
Liberty	406	5.5	384.2	6.0
Wake Forest	438	6.3	432.7	5.5
South Alabama	286	4.4	341.2	5.4
Cincinnati	503	6.3	450.5	6.5

So, NC State managed to hold Liberty and South Alabama below their season averages (except they did allow Liberty more total yards, but not yards per play). Wake and Cincy both had pretty good days against State.

Clearly, if we execute offensively, this could be a very good day.

Defensively, I believe that Groh is too good, with personnel like we have, to get beaten by an offense that can only pass.

So, this game pretty much comes down to motivation. Being ready to play, and putting forth your best effort is simply very important in football. A bad team playing hard will beat a good team playing flat pretty much every time.

If we are not ready to play, this game will be close and we could easily lose.

I believe this team has a great attitude. So, I am anxious to see how we respond to our first real potential “trap”. I think we show up ready to go, and get a relatively comfortable win.

But I’ve been wrong before. Let’s hope I’m not this time.

Go Jackets!

Week 5 Picks

Last week’s picks:

Free Money

Miami beats Kansas St. by more than 13.5 LOSS

LSU beats West Virginia by more than 5.5. WIN

Solid Bets

Alabama beats Arkansas by more than 11.5. WIN

Virginia beats Southern Miss by more than 3.5. LOSS

Oklahoma St. loses by less than 3.5 at Texas A&M (I think they win outright). WIN

Tossups

N.C.State loses by less than 7.5 at Cincy (you may accuse me of cheating, because this game as already started. But that will be tough since State is currently down 21-0. I pick with integrity...) [Edit: Make it 21-7, here come the Pack baaaaaby!] LOSS (terrible pick)

Georgia Tech beats UNC by more than 6.5. WIN

Maryland beats Temple by more than 9.5. LOSS (seriously Maryland?)

VT beats Marshall by more than 20.5. LOSS

Tulane loses to Duke by less than 10.5. LOSS

Clemson beats FSU by more than 1.5 (crazy? maybe...) WIN (crazy like a fox)

On the season so far:

Overall	14 for 31
Free Money	4 for 6
Solid bets	5 for 12
Tossups	5 for 13

This Week:

Free Money

North Carolina is angry, and beats East Carolina by more than 6.5.

Solid Bets

Wake Forest beats Boston College by more than 2.5 (Boston College’s problem used to be that the defense was so much better than the offense. Well, they fixed that problem... the defense is no longer too good for the offense. But they didnt fix it the way they want to fix it.)

Georgia Tech is favored by 11.5 in Raleigh. I’ll say that we will overcome the trap, we will not show up flat, and as such, we will take care of business by more than 11.5.

Duke over FIU. They will win outright, so obviously lose by less than 2.5.

Nebraska loses to Wisconsin by less than 10.5.

Florida at home, off a relatively easy game, loses by less than 3.5 to Bama, who is on the road, and won’t be able to get as “up” for this game as Florida, because they played a very big game last week as well. I think Bama is better, but its close enough that Florida’s situational advantage and home field will be enough. Somebody wins by a FG. Either way, Florida covers.

Tossups

Texas A&M beats Arkansas by more than 2.5.

Idaho will lose by less than 17.5 to UVA. After losing outright at home to Southern Miss, I may not pick UVA to cover another spread this season.

In a story that was not widely reported, a Temple fraternity played a prank on Maryland last week, kidnapping the football team, stealing their uniforms, and pretending to be the Terrapins. Unfortunately for Maryland, losing to Temple by 30 points was not so noteworthy as to make anybody suspicious that something was up, so nobody investigated. There is not actually a spread on the Maryland game this week, since they are playing FCS Towson, but I’ll make up my own, and say Towson is favored by only 3. I will assume that the Temple fraternity has released Maryland's real team, and as such, I’ll take the Terps to cover that spread. Fear the Turtle!!

Against my better judgment, I am taking Clemson to do something good for the 3rd week in a row. But, I did leave myself a little breathing room. VT is favored by 6.5. So Clemson can cover, and still lose. And that is exactly what I think they will do. They are a much better team now that they have a real offensive scheme, but unfortunately, the defense is not there. And Tahj Boyd is a little like Jacory Harris. Great QB as long as the opposing secondary is not attacking the ball. Throws a very catchable ball, but unfortunately it very catchable for the other team as well. Auburn and FSU did not take advantage. I bet VT catches it a few times, and that will be enough to win a tight one.

Week 4 - UNC Review

As Paul Johnson said in his press conference, easily the best part of this game was that 35 is greater than 28. It may not have been the smoothest or most relaxing game, but it was at least a win.

I was very pleased to see the team win. I was even more pleased to see how the team responded (twice) when things did not go well. This was the first time all season we had a few problems. A little adversity. And, both times, we responded well.

First, early in the game things did not go as planned. They put together a good drive right away to go up by 7, and we did not score on the first play. Or, you know, the first drive either. But after the first play, I was upset. 18 yards? Thats it? Come on guys. We didn’t even come close to a touchdown there...

After 3 possessions, we were still trailing 7-3. And this, despite the fact that we had not punted yet, and we had forced two UNC punts. We had outgained them 144 to 74, and we had entered their red zone on all three of our drives. They had only been in our red zone once.

So, despite having largely outplayed UNC early, we trailed 7-3. And we had just fumbled at their 10 yard line.

If UNC puts together a drive there, and goes ahead 14-3, we might have been in trouble. But we didn’t panic. Instead, we forced another 3 and out, and then scored on the first play of the ensuing drive. And closed out the half leading 17-7, set to get the ball first in the second half.

Excellent response to adversity and frustration.

But then, a poor response to leading at halftime. I don’t know for sure if we lost our edge and let up, but it looked like it.

After allowing only 93 yards (3.72 average) for the first half (63 and 7.85 of that on the first drive), we let UNC come out and drive down our throats, quickly and easily, twice in a row. On those two drives, they gained 130 yards, averaging 13 yards a play. Clearly, a significant change occurred, either in our defense, their offense, or both. (At least one factor was a dropoff in intensity. For example, on one UNC 41 yard catch and run, early in the half, Attaochu practically jogged as UNC wide receiver caught the ball in the middle, and then sprinted around him and down the sideline. I am sure Attaochu will hear about that in the film room. He spent most of the game showing he has all the talent you want. Effort was lacking on that play. And it was the first play of the half, so I am not buying that he was tired.)

The offense was up to the task however, scoring a FG and then a TD (plus 2 point conversion) before each of those easy UNC TD drives, so we were still ahead 28-21 after UNC scored their second.

Shortly after that, more adversity. Hill drops a gimme touchdown, missing a chance to go ahead 35-21. Soon after, we allow UNC to convert a 3rd and 15, largely due to 3 or 4 missed tackles by us. And then a 55 yard TD run 3 plays later.

So now, after playing miserable defense for more than a quarter, and dropping a sure TD pass, we are in a tie game with about 7 minutes left.

Do we panic? No. The second great response to adversity. A 4-play, 61 yard drive to go right back up by 7. And then two very good defensive possessions to close out the game.

I was shocked to see a young team respond so well. UNC is a good, tough team.

So, that was the good news.

The bad news was that we played a very inefficient football game. We outgained them 500 to 330. We did not punt until the 4th quarter. We forced them into 4 punts before our first punt of the game. We outgained them 282 to 93 for the first half. In other words, we easily could have put the game away, or close to it, by halftime.

But, on three of our trips to the red zone, we scored 3 points (FG, FG miss, and fumble). The fumble occurred at their 10 yard line, on a first down play, and if Tevin and Peeples had been on the same page, he might have scored on the play. I am not sure who was at fault, maybe both of them, but UNC did not force that error. Just a bad pitch. You have to execute.

Conversely, UNC scored a TD on their only trip to the red zone of the first half.

In short, we outplayed UNC in the middle of the field, but let them get the best of us near the goalline.

That is a great formula for losing. We need to do better than that.

If the two teams had been approximately equal in red zone efficiency, we would probably have been ahead something like 28-7 or maybe 24-3. We had 4 trips (plus one long TD) to UNC’s one trip.

Offensively, as expected, we had some difficulty blocking UNC. I guess I am ok with that. Ideally, I would like us to be good enough on the O-Line, and athletic enough at the A-Backs and WR’s, to block even a defense as talented as UNC. But, rationally, I understand that few (if any) college teams can consistently block UNC very well. We did gain 500 yards and score 35 points. It is hard to argue with that. But, they generated some negative plays and prevented us from cashing in several promising drives.

I believe our ability to eventually generate 500 yards and 35 points, despite UNC doing a pretty good job beating some blocks, is indicative that we, as a team, do have a better understanding of what CPJ is trying to do. In year 4, I think everybody understands the play calls, various blocking assignments, and just “Gets it” well enough that Coach is not limited in his adjustments.

In 2009 against a similar UNC defense (yes, not exactly the same, but they were very talented both years), an exceptionally good GT offense did not fair as well. The 2009 version of the jackets was one of the top offenses in the country, averaging 33 points per game. They were 14th nationally in scoring offense and 26th nationally in yards per game. And that team, yes the team with Dwyer, Thomas and all that talent, managed only 406 yards (5.1 per play) and 24 points. This version of GT scored 35, gained 500 yards, and averaged 7 per play. And, we left some points on the field.

Interestingly, on my review of the tape, it appeared to me that UNC played us pretty much the same way the whole game. Their attitude seemed to be that they would line up, keep it simple, and just try to execute. Against our base formation, they simply played a 4-3, with two corners and two safeties. About as standard of a formation as it gets. When we moved an A-back up on the line of scrimmage, they moved a safety forward with the linebackers, essentially moving to a 4-4, with two corners and only one safety. I assume Paul Johnson liked something about that defensive set, because we ran most of our plays from an unbalanced set, with only one A-back, and the other A-back even with the offensive line. We also put both wide receivers on the same side for many plays. In his interview immediately following the game, Coach Johnson apparently stated (I did not hear this directly) that we had a hard time running on them except for our “Gadget” plays. I take that to mean our counter plays, like the counter option which we ran several times, and all the plays from our unbalanced formations. I don’t know exactly what it was about the formation that Johnson liked, but must have been something. (There is some analysis you can’t get just anywhere...).

We did appear to have to use a little more misdirection than usual. Basically, if you cant block them (or if you can’t consistently block them), then you try to get them to move to the wrong place. We ran a lot of counter option, which slowed down the linebackers pursuit on our regular option plays, and also worked like a charm to set up play action twice (although Hill dropped one). We ran a lot of the rocket toss, and its “counter” play, the inside trap handoff to the B-Back (where the QB’s hand off motion is essentially a fake toss - so you punish the defense for pursuing the toss too quickly). All of that was designed either to get UNC players moving in to the wrong place, or get them to hesitate for long enough to beat them to the corner.

Basically, North Carolina made it difficult for us. They forced us into mistakes, and as such we did not block as well or execute as well as we would like. But even so, we were able to use the full playbook, and our numbers ended up very good, we won, and we really could have scored even more.

And, as a relatively young offense, with a relatively young QB and O-Line, we should get better.

This offense might end up being very, very good.

Defensively, we played absolutely great for about two thirds of the game. That should count for something right? I guess.

We did not play well on the first drive. We played absolutely awful for the first two drives of the second half. But, for much of the game, we generated a lot of pressure. I was very pleased with the D-Line. UNC’s O line is supposed to be good, and it looked big. And frankly, we did a pretty good job of getting a push, and occupying and defeating blockers. At times, our LB’s and secondary took poor angles and did not fill their gaps, but the D-Line I thought was pretty consistent.

The good news is, the linebackers and secondary should be learning, and should improve all year (and into next year).

Some of the young guys (most notably Attaochu, but also Thomas, Young, Johnson, etc...) look like very good players.

We need to tackle more consistently. And our recognition could stand to improve. And we must, absolutely must, learn how to be stingy in the red zone. For some reason, we can shut people down when they are at their own 30 or 40, but once they get near our end zone, we just invite them right in for 7 points.

Nevertheless, 7 sacks is 7 sacks. We forced 5 punts and 2 interceptions. With this offense, 7 stops should win us most every game we play. We only allowed 330 yards. There is a lot to build on, but there is definitely building to be done.

Special teams, per usual, was an adventure. A missed FG, poor kickoff coverage, terrible kickoffs, for some reason Laskey kept fair catching very returnable punts, we only punted 3 times but one of them was terrible... etc. We cannot keep doing this or it will cost us a game at some point. Coach Johnson’s frustration is easy to see in his press conference quotes. Apparently, this is an area of emphasis, we work on it every practice, and it looks good in practice. Here is to hoping we get it figured out. At least we did block a punt.

Here is a look at the numbers, comparing the numbers for all plays in the game:

All Plays	GT	UNC
Max Yardage	59	55
Upper Quartile Yardage	8	9.5
Median	4	3
Lower Quartile	1	0
Min Yardage	-6	-11
% of plays 20+ yards	9.72% (7 of 72 plays)	9.62% (5 of 52 plays)
% of plays 10+ yards	19.44% (14 of 72 plays)	25% (13 of 52 plays)
% of play 5-10 yards	33% (24 of 72)	17.3% (9 of 52)
% of plays 0 or less yards	16.67% (12 plays of 72)	32.69% (17 of 52 plays)
Average of top 25%	19.88	21.62
Average of Middle 50%	4.44	3.78
Average of bottom 25%	-0.67	-3.62
Average per play	7.02	6.38

You can see that UNC’s offense was a little more feast or famine than ours was. They were either getting a great play, or a bad play. More than 55% of their plays were either for 20 or more yards, or 0 or less. Only about 26% of our plays were 20 or more, or 0 or less.

We also generated many more plays in the 5-10 yard range (24 to 9). That is apparent because our overall average, average of middle 50%, and median are all higher, and yet UNC’s upper quartile numbers are higher. Essentially, their upper quartile numbers were dragged up by a few big plays, but their typical play was more likely to be less than 5 yards. And that dragged the overall average back down.

Additionally, when they lost yards, they tended to lose more than we did. This is normal, considering they pass frequently and we generated a good number of sacks. We run more often. Negative running plays tend to be short losses. Sacks tend to be bigger losses.

Not exactly ground breaking stuff, but you can see why we outgained them by a ratio of 3 to 2. They had a higher percentage of big plays, but not by much. We had a higher percentage of medium plays, by a lot. Their “ok” plays gained 2 or 3 yards. Ours gained 5 or 6.

Overall, I would say a good game. Very encouraging. Particularly that we gained some valuable experience in how to win, even when everything does not go right. (I would say even when “We don’t play our best”, but that is not fair to UNC. They forced us into a lot of our mistakes.)

It remains to be seen exactly how good UNC is, but there is a reasonable chance they are one of the best teams we will play.

I expect us to improve as the season progresses, but for now we are right where we need to be.

Week 4 - UNC Preview

Here it is. The first real test.

UNC is the first complete team we have played, and the first team with any kind of a defense. Our offensive numbers to this point have been fun, but I highly doubt we come anywhere near our season averages against this defense. They are big, fast, and very talented. I don’t think they are particularly well coached, but mediocre coaching and that talent equals a good defense.

How good?

Well, they are holding opponents to about 310 yards per game, only 77 rushing yards, 2.35 yards per carry, 4.6 yards per play, and 16.3 points per game.

Those numbers are all quite good.

But, their defensive numbers are somewhat like our offensive numbers - they’ve been compiled against a schedule of questionable ability on the other side of the ball.

Their first game was James Madison, an FCS team.

Their second game was Rutgers. Rutgers has been good in the recent past, but they were not very good last year, finishing #90 in Sagarin’s poll. They are at #64 so far for this season. Perhaps more important to this analysis though, is that their offense is suspect. They have only played one other game this year besides UNC, and that was against NC Central. Against that defensive juggernaut, they managed only 347 yards, and 4.6 yards per play.

That makes the 244 yards and 3.4 yards per play that UNC held Rutgers to a little less impressive.

So, basically, UNC padded its stats against James Madison and a bad Rutgers offense.

UNC’s other game was against UVA. UVA is supposed to be improved this year, but its hard to imagine they are real good given how bad they were last year. Against UVA, UNC conceded 170 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry), and 468 total yards. They did force 3 turnovers, without which they almost certainly would have given up more than 17 points.

For comparison’s sake, UVA gained 496 yards against William and Mary, and only 360 against Indiana. Their 6.2 yards per play against UNC was UVA’s highest yards per play of the season.

So, in short, we have a GT offense that has looked unbelievable against very bad competition, versus a UNC defense that has looked very good against very bad competition, and very mediocre against the one decent (maybe worse) team it played.

Hard to tell much about that matchup. At least from the stats.

UNC’s front 7 is very, very talented. They have a 3 players currently projected to go in the first 18 picks of next year’s NFL draft (I believe a both defensive ends and a linebacker, but it might be a defensive tackle instead of one of the ends). Defensive end Quinton Coples is supposed to be the best, but all 3 are very good.

Their size and speed will be an excellent challenge for our blockers. To this point in the year, we have been blocking MUCH better than last year. If we can keep that up this game, I think we can confidently say our blocking is in fact better this year, and it has not just been the result of playing bad teams.

The thing that I am most curious to see is what Paul Johnson can do with his complete offense. I believe we are finally there. And I don’t just mean the QB. Washington is probably more a natural fit as an option QB than Nesbitt was, and he has had more time in the system. Both of those things help. But it also helps to have an offensive line that was recruited for this scheme, that is quick and can get downfield to make blocks. It also helps to have A-Backs and WR’s with another year in the system. I think, moreso than the past 3 years, we are now on the same page offensively at all positions, and this offense more or less knows everything CPJ wants them to know.

So, now that we are not limited by using only half the playbook (year 1) or not having a complete understanding of the offense (years 1-3, to different degrees), what kind of adjustments can CPJ make if we start to bog down?

Of course, that assumes we will actually bog down. I guess its conceivable that we will light up UNC for 500+ (600+??) yards and a bunch of points.

But, more than likely, they will slow us down at some point. What can we do after that?

To this point I have focused on the matchup of our offense against their defense. And for good reason. I believe that is where the game will be won or lost.

UNC has a good offense, probably. Their offensive line is supposed to be the best its been in years. Renner has looked pretty good. They have a new, faster running back.

But, they still have Shoop (same old offensive coordinator). First, Groh owns this guy. Second, he isnt all that good against anyone else. In 2008, he managed to have the 92nd best offense in the country with the WR corps of Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Tate and Brooks Foster.

Now, we don’t have a great defense. I do think we are improved. But not great. Groh will out-scheme and out-adjust Shoop. I bet UNC’s talent and passing game will do enough to score somewhere around 20-24. Maybe if we give them some turnover help it will be worse. If they turn the ball over to us, it could be less. But I feel like its a pretty safe bet that they won’t score a ton, and an equally safe bet that we won’t shut them out.

The big question mark is our offense against their defense. We have shown that big, athletic front lines can shut us down. And we have also shown that when we are clicking we can score almost at will.

Special teams is always a threat to cause a disaster for us, but there is no particular reason to think UNC will hurt us there. We have looked stable there so far this year. Again, that was against terrible opposition, but I am still hopeful that we are good across the board in special teams, for a change.

I’ll predict that our offense proves to be significantly better than last year, our blocking and execution are better, and we have a more complete understanding of the offense. And I’ll predict that UNC, while being very talented, is in fact not all that well coached, and thus their defense will not have that much success stopping us.

I think we will be pleasantly surprised this weekend.

I’ll call it GT - 42, UNC 24, with a garbage time score for UNC. So, after a few drives, it won’t be all that close.

A surprising pick to be sure.

I could easily see UNC winning, or a close game that could go either way, but I think this is a different GT team, with a different attitude. I think Johnson and Groh both have good schemes, both coach them well, and both are good at making adjustments.

Basically, I think we are going to start seeing GT be an efficient team, year in and year out, that is well coached and very difficult to beat, so long as this coaching staff is in place.

Let’s go Jackets!