NC State Preview - Week 5

I’m worried.

The only real reason I am worried is that everything is perfectly in place for us to be flat and lay an egg this weekend.

Consider:

1 - We are coming off a big win, in a close game.

2 - It was our first “big” game of the year.

3 - Before the season started, everyone thought we would lose.

4 - Many still thought we would lose Saturday

5 - We are now getting a lot of respect in the media.

6 - We are double digit favorites on the road.

7 - NC State looked atrocious last week on National TV.

8 - Our players probably all watched that game.

9 - NC State will want desperately to regroup at home.

10 - NC State will be very motivated by last week’s embarrassment.

Take any 3 or 4 of those factors and you usually should fear a team not playing its best.

I believe our young team has a lot of CPJ’s personality, and has a very good attitude and work ethic. But, that attitude will be tested this weekend. College football players are college kids. Football player are human. It is difficult, psychologically, to be ready to play your best in the face of all the above factors. Our players know that, so far this year, NC State has not been nearly as good as UNC. And we just beat UNC. And we made some silly mistakes that left points on the field, and we still beat UNC.

I really hope that our players do the following:

1 - Listen to the coaching staff. I am sure that CPJ and Al Groh and the rest of the staff have been telling our guys all week that NC State is not as bad as they have played (this is true). They have good players. They recruit reasonably well, and they have some athletes.

2 - Remember last year. NC State delivered maybe our most embarrassing loss last year. Give up 45 points at home? Lose by 17 after being favored by 9 going into the game? Surely our players remember how that felt.

3 - Realize that we are simply not a dominant team, and we can’t afford to take anybody lightly.

#3 is not meant to be a slight to us. There are not very many dominant college teams. Maybe 10, or 15, teams truly have the talent and are complete enough as a team where they can sleepwalk into a conference game on the road and still win.

Most teams in the country are not that much better than their competition, in terms of talent and athleticism anyway.

I think we are a good team that is capable of doing some special things this year.

But, the fact remains that we are not good enough to sleepwalk and beat anybody left on the schedule. Normally, I would say maybe Duke, but this Duke team looks better than usual.

There are a handful of games we should win relatively easy if we play up to our potential, but they are all a very possible loss if we are not mentally ready to play.

So, this will be a familiar theme from me this year. This won’t be the last time I talk about showing up ready to play.

I do believe we are more talented than NC State, and better coached. Although, surprisingly given their results to this point, its close. They do have talent, and their coaching staff is not bad.

The number one reason they have been so bad is simply injuries. Especially on defense. I believe they are missing 4 starters and 3 more on the two deep. And the starters they are missing are good starters. Their top 2 defensive linemen, and arguably their best linebacker. It would be difficult for most any team to overcome those losses. A team with the depth of Alabama could probably do it, but even that kind of team would take a hit. Most teams would have a hard time fielding a decent defense under such circumstances.

The offense is a little harder to explain. NC State is bad running the ball. I mean real bad. They have only gained 340 yards on the season so far. (Yes we average more than that per game). They average 2.83 yards per carry. That is 107th out of 120 teams. And two of their games were against Liberty and South Alabama. So, bad. They also were held to negative 26 yards against Cincy for the game (not a typo).

Their passing game is more dangerous. They are averaging 279 yards a game, good for 33rd in the country. They have not played the toughest schedule (although neither have we), but still, they have plenty of talent in the passing game. Glennon, their QB, is very talented. He lacks experience and its not clear if he is mature enough to beat a good defense yet, but he is clearly talented and if given time can hurt you. (Also, it is far from clear that we are good defense anyway).

They also have talented wide receivers, led by TJ Graham, one of the fastest and best players in the conference.

Given how much they have struggled running the ball, you would hope our defense could limit their running game, and then just blitz all day. If we are able to do that, I expect Groh to dial up some pretty good stuff, and Attaochu will probably go off again and have a very good day. We can be successful and really limit State’s offense. But that is only if we can play the run very well. If we let them establish the run, they will likely be able to score points.

Even if that is the case, we should be able to outscore them.

Their rushing defense on paper looks pretty good. They have allowed only 139 yards per game, and 3.83 yards per carry.

However, you can’t ignore the schedule in analyzing those stats.

Here is a look at what the teams they have played did against NC State, and what they have done the rest of the year:

Team	Rushing Yards (against NC State)	Yards Per Carry (Against NC State)	Rushing Yards per Game (Season)	Rushing Yards Per Carry (Season)
Liberty	111	3.47	103.5	3.5
Wake Forest	101	2.97	110	2.75
South Alabama	104	3.15	151.8	4.2
Cincinnati	240	5.22	239.25	5.77

So, you can see, not real impressive. They pretty much allow teams to rush for their average on the season, and their average per carry. Could be a big day for our rushing offense.

Here is a similar look in terms of total offense.

Team	Total Offense Against NC State	Yards Per Play Against NC State	Total Offense (Season)	Yards Per Play (Season)
Liberty	406	5.5	384.2	6.0
Wake Forest	438	6.3	432.7	5.5
South Alabama	286	4.4	341.2	5.4
Cincinnati	503	6.3	450.5	6.5

So, NC State managed to hold Liberty and South Alabama below their season averages (except they did allow Liberty more total yards, but not yards per play). Wake and Cincy both had pretty good days against State.

Clearly, if we execute offensively, this could be a very good day.

Defensively, I believe that Groh is too good, with personnel like we have, to get beaten by an offense that can only pass.

So, this game pretty much comes down to motivation. Being ready to play, and putting forth your best effort is simply very important in football. A bad team playing hard will beat a good team playing flat pretty much every time.

If we are not ready to play, this game will be close and we could easily lose.

I believe this team has a great attitude. So, I am anxious to see how we respond to our first real potential “trap”. I think we show up ready to go, and get a relatively comfortable win.

But I’ve been wrong before. Let’s hope I’m not this time.

Go Jackets!