Bowl Preview

Well here we are.  Paul Johnson's last game.  I'm disappointed.  He had a good run, and I know many fans have grown tired of the offense and (lack of) defense.  But I'll miss watching the option.

Geoff Collins looks to me like a great hire.  The only real question mark is that he hasn't been a head coach very long.  But GT, in the current landscape, isn't likely to hire a guy who has been a head coach for 5+ years (at the FBS level anyway) and has done well consistently.  A guy like that will usually get better jobs.

Geoff Collins has a very solid resume, and has done well in 2 years at Temple.  He has been at GT for two separate stints, under O'Leary and Gailey, so he should understand the unique challenges posed by GT.  He has also been at Alabama under Saban, and been the defensive coordinator for 6 years combined, for good teams at Miss. St. and Florida.  That's a very solid resume.  His defense's ranked as follows, per football outsiders (opponent adjusted efficiency ratings):

2016 - 6th (Florida)
2015 - 22nd (Florida)
2014 - 20th (Miss. St)
2013 - 14th (Miss. St.)
2012 - 47th (Miss. St.)
2011 - 26th (Miss. St.)

Not bad.  Just the one "down" year, but that year was still very solid by our standards (47th nationally).  The other years were very good.  Granted he had access to better talent than he'll likely get at GT, especially at Florida.  That may not be true at Miss. St., but we'll see how he can recruit.  All signs point to success there.  He's a young, energetic, personable guy, and has a reputation for being all about social media.  Apparently that's what the kids are all into these days (obligatory "get off my lawn" post here - I'm 34 but I freely admit I already don't understand 20 year olds these days).  Supposedly Geoff Collins is a great recruiter though.  We'll see.  But I'm excited.


As for Minnesota, I know nothing about their personnel.  Statistically, they are a good defense and bad offense.  I generally don't like that matchup for us, because our defense usually manages to allow anyone to score.  Other teams we played that fit that profile include Miami, UVA and Duke.  We did well against Miami, poorly against Duke, and you could argue we were lucky to beat UVA.  I expect this game will look like UVA.  We will need help from the special teams and defense to win.

We should be able to score some.  Minnesota's defense is good but not great.  38th nationally.  But they also had the extra time to get ready, for whatever that's worth (according to my statistical analysis in the past, its not worth much at all).  Their offense is down in the 80's.  Our offense is 17th, but our defense is 105th or so.

The actual numbers suggest a very even game.  Our opponent adjusted offense per possession score is 2.91, meaning we score that much per possession against a theoretically average defense.  Minnesota is at 2.01.  So our offense is much better.  But their defense is 1.92, while ours is 2.74.  So our offense is 0.9 points better, but our defense is 0.82 points worse.  Suggesting, in a 10 possession game, we should win by 1 point.  That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.

Vegas has us favored by 5-6.  I hope they know something I don't.  I see a complete toss up.  And perhaps even Minnesota winning.

But, as always, Let's go Jackets.  Hope we send Paul Johnson out the right way.

UGA preview

My bad on not making a post last week.  Just didn't get around to it.

Anyway, couple of great wins.  Miami was a truly great offensive performance.  27 points on 8 possessions against what is a really good defense.  GT's defense and special teams played well enough to win.

UVA was a true team effort.  And the first game in a long time where I think special teams was the best unit.  Defense played a horrible half and a really good half.  Offense was ok.  Not great, but good enough to win with help from a full team effort.

Unfortunately, now we have UGA.  I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see much hope here.  Our offense is very good.  Top 15 or so nationally.  And their defense isn't as good as last year.  They are only about 20th or 25th best in the country.  But that's still good enough to slow us down some.  I expect us to score somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0 points per possession, probably.  And that's really not bad.

But UGA's offense is loaded.  Top 5 nationally.  Top 5 in both rushing (yards per carry) and passing (passer rating).  They have no weaknesses.   And our defense isn't good.   I'm worried we'll struggle to force third down, sort of like 2012.

I expect after 8 possessions or so, we'll have between 17 and 24 points.  But I'm afraid they'll have 40+.   They are just loaded on offense.  And after 8 possessions, the game will likely be into the 4th quarter and nearly over, since both teams will likely be moving the ball and eating clock. 

Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.  As always, Let's go Jackets!

Miami Preview

Well, we made it interesting, but in the end I wasn't off by much.  45-31 prediction, 38-28 final score.  You gotta take that kinda prediction result wherever you can get it.  Of course I'd have preferred us to keep that comfortable lead and never let the game get in doubt, but that just isn't who GT is apparently.

Anyway, on to Miami.  We are somehow favored by 4 points.  Miami is collapsing I guess.  While not playing terribly, they haven't looked like a good team since UNC.  The last 4 games, they barely beat FSU, and then lost by 1 or 2 scores to UVA, BC and then Duke.  We'll see if we can keep that trend going.

Football Outsiders has their stats up for the season finally, so I'm going to walk through the matchup with their advance stats.

First, our offense (ranked #11) versus Miami's defense (ranked #10).  

Overall efficiency - we generate 3.26 points per drive (adjusted for field position).   This ranks 9th nationally.  They allow 1.32, which is 7th nationally.

Offensive drive success rate - 48.8% of our drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should.  This is 11th nationally.  They allow 22.7%, which is 16th nationally.

Available yards - we have gained 60.4% of available yards on the season, which is 9th nationally.  They have given up 34.3% of available yards, or 10th nationally.

First down rate - 80.5% of our drives result in at least one first down, which is 11th nationally.  They allow at least one first down on 64.9% of drives, which is 20th nationally. 

Touch down rate - We score a TD on 45.1% of our drives, which is 5th nationally.  They allow a TD on 15.5% of drives, which is 13th nationally.

TD after first down - On drives where we get at least 1 first down, we score a TD on 56.1% of our drives, which is 9th nationally.  They allow 23.8% TDs in this situation, which is 11th nationally.

Ball control - 75.6% of our drives last at least 4 plays, which is 5th nationally.  They allow 60.8%, which is 23rd nationally.

Turnovers - 13.4% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 98th nationally.   They force turnovers on 14.4% of drives, which is 27th nationally.


So Miami's defense is consistently good at everything, and is the best defense we will play all season except Clemson (currently UGA is next, ranked 24th, so not even that close).  Our offense is consistently good at everything, except turnovers.

Looking over all categories, this should be a really good battle.  Turnovers will be key.  We are bad at ball security.  Miami is good at taking the ball away, though no better at that than they are at everything else.

Points will be tough to come by against this defense, so we definitely can't afford to waste possessions.  We also don't want to give the ball to a bad offense in good field position, particularly with how bad our own defense is.  Must take care of the ball.

Moving on to...

our defense (ranked 95th) versus Miami's offense (ranked #86).  

Overall efficiency - they generate 1.9 points per drive (adjusted for field position).   This ranks 92nd nationally.  We allow 2.44, which ranks 86th.

Offensive drive success rate - 29.6% of their drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should.  This is 87th nationally.  We allow 39.7%, which is 95th nationally.

Available yards - they have gained 41.2% of available yards on the season, which is 96th nationally.  We allow 49.2%, which is 91st nationally.

First down rate - 67.3% of their drives result in at least one first down, which is 101st nationally.  We allow 78.2%, which is 106th nationally.

Touch down rate - They score a TD on 24.5% of their drives, which is 84th nationally.  We allow 33.3%, which is 97th nationally.

TD after first down - On drives where they get at least 1 first down, they score a TD on 36.4% of our drives, which is 75th nationally.  We allow 42.6%, which is 83rd nationally.

Ball control - 63.3% of their drives last at least 4 plays, which is 89th nationally.  We allow 74.4%, which is 121st nationally.

Turnovers - 14.3% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 109th nationally.  We force turnovers on 17.9% of drives, which is 5th nationally.


Turnovers really tell the story here.  Once again, both teams are consistently even across all categories (here, both roughly equally BAD).  Except turnovers.  They are terrible at taking care of the ball, and we are great at taking the ball away.  Based on this, we should expect to force a turnover on one of every 6 possessions or so.  And we will need it.  Assuming a 12 possession game, we need at least two turnovers forced.

Otherwise it looks like a pretty even game.  I generally favor Miami's situation here.  I'd rather have a bad offense trying to score on a bad defense, than a good offense trying to score on a good defense.  But we'll see.  This looks an awful lot like a game where the turnover battle decides the outcome.

I'll call it 28-24, to whoever win the turnovers.  I'll pick GT.

As always, Let's Go Jackets!

UNC Preview

Ok so more excellent analysis from me.  Nailed that VT prediction.  31-21 VT just like I said.

Obviously, this team (really this whole division) is difficult to predict.  Speaking of this division, GT technically could still win the Coastal this year.  I guess we are as good as anybody else, from a "good for the ACC" point of view.  Which is just to say that nobody in the Coastal is any good.

UVA - lost to Indiana (currently 4-5 and #68 in Massey).
Pitt - lost by 31 to UCF and 45 to Penn St.
VT - lost to 2-7 Old Dominion at home.
Miami - blown out by LSU (although that's not really embarrassing in this context)
GT - lost to South Florida (#57 in Massey currently)
UNC - lost to East Carolina, Cal and a bunch of teams.

Really Duke is the best we've got.  They won their non conference games.  Although they lost to UVA, Pitt and VT. 

Basically the Coastal is a pile of hot garbage.  Whoever wins it will be "embarrassing" for the ACC.  Like, oh, that's your champ?  So, might as well be us.  If we win out, we actually might do it.  I know, I know, big if.

So, let's try not to lose immediately.  UNC is not good.  Not good at all.  But its a road game, and stope me if you've heard this before, but with a defense as bad as ours, you can lose almost any game. 

Seriously though, UNC is awful.  They have managed to keep several games close, but their defense is currently ranked #108 by football outsiders, and their offense is #92.  Breathtaking.  Neither unit has a pulse. 

So pretty much the usual for GT when playing a bad ACC team, meaning:

1 - we should score a ton
2 - we need to execute and not turn the ball over, and if we do that, we will score a ton
3 - they should not score much, if our defense plays well
4 - you can never depend on #3
5 - a couple untimely turnovers and we may find ourselves in a tough game


Let's hope for a Louisville/VT-like shellacking and a nice relaxing fourth quarter.  I'll call it 45-31, good guys.

As always, Let's Go Jackets!

Virginia Tech Preview

Well, sorry gang.  My indifference came early this year.  Clemson was exactly what I expected.  I just didn't care about Bowling Green.  And I thought both Louisville and Duke would be close games down to the wire, so you probably miss my "analysis" much. 

However, I'm back.  I guess.  A little too close to game time but here we are.

Virginia Tech is not normal Virginia Tech.  Can't really figure out what is with them.  They have played well in ACC play, mostly (except for escaping barely against a really bad UNC team).  They have played horribly outside of ACC play, in particular losing to Old Dominion.  Their trademark defense is not nearly as good as normal.  In fact, it is significantly worse than Duke's in my opinion, so our offense should have more success tonight.  (Of course, Duke lost to VT 31-14 in typical "ACC Wheel of Destiny" fashion). 

Our defense, which played very well against Duke, has still been mostly miserable this year and our special teams have been worse.  As such, I expect a loss, something like 31-21.   This year is shaping up a lot like 2015 in my opinion.  We spend all year seemingly being better than our record, and repeatedly getting spreads from Vegas that make GT fans confused (we were favored against all of South Florida, Pitt and Duke).  This spread tonight is only about 3 or 4 points, with VT being favored, meaning Vegas thinks this would be a pick-em on a neutral field.  That's odd.  I wonder what they know that I don't.

Anyway, I digress.  2015 was a year where we could have been better but just kept making late game mistakes and finding ways to lose.  Same thing this team has done really.  Just can't get it together.  We are capable of playing better, but probably won't. 

I hope we win more than 3 games this year, but right now I'd say 4-8 or maybe 5-7 is the best we can hope for.  And 3-9 is not out of the question.  6-6 seems unreachable, but I hope I'm wrong.

Let's go Jackets!

Clemson Preview

Disaster start to this season.  South Florida and Pitt were both winnable games and we needed to win at least one, and maybe both, to have a shot at a decent record.  Now we are looking at 1-3, because we aren't going to beat Clemson.  This game, every unit played poorly in the first half, and every unit played pretty well in the second half, but that wasn't enough.  This team continues to do just enough to lose.  Its hard to win on the road but you can't be a good team unless you can win on the road. 

I'm not going to bother analyzing this game too closely.  Clemson's defensive front is simply too good.  There is nothing really that we can do.  They are vulnerable to a spread passing team that repeatedly threatens with downfield passing.  But you need to be very good at that in order to trouble Clemson, and even then you might not.  That isn't what we do and so of course we aren't very good at it.  Even teams who are good at it often get beaten easily by this defense though.

Clemson's offense hasn't really impressed that much.  I'm sure they'll have enough firepower to score on our defense, but hopefully we can get some stops.  I just want something semi respectable like 31-10 maybe. 

As always, let's go jackets.  But I'm not excited about this one. 

Pittsburgh Preview

Well that was a disaster.

We continued our road losing streak and our troubling trend from last year of throwing away double digit second half leads.  Special teams were awful.  Obviously, you can't give up two kickoff returns.  The defense was mostly awful.  35 points allowed on 10 possessions is fairly terrible.  The offense was pretty good (38 points on 13 possessions) but sputtered in the 4th quarter, and of course there was the key fumble when had a chance to restore the 10 point lead late.  Hard to blame the offense for its performance over the whole game, but that's yet another huge mistake with the game on the line.

Pretty much nothing went right.

Pittsburgh is coming off their own debacle.  A 44 point curb stomping at the hands of their supposed rival, I guess.  Not sure if Penn St. feels the same way, but Pittsburgh hates them.  I guess we can relate.  In any event, Pitt looks terrible too.  We are actually favored by about a FG.  I have no idea what to make of this game, and that's only compounded by the location at Pitt.  That stadium annually produces some very weird results, both in college and pro games.  I consider it, along with Iowa, as college football's bermuda triangle of sorts.  Both places lived up to the billing last year, as Miami and Ohio St. were upset in shocking fashion and, in Ohio St's case, knocked out of the playoff.  But Pitt and Iowa have been pulling upsets like that for a long time.

This, of course, would be no "shocking" upset.  But still, weird things happen there.

More importantly, we don't know much about either team, except that neither is very good.  We might still be pretty good (we'll see how USF turns out), but my guess is we are a 6-6 or 5-7 or 7-5 kinds team.  If I'm right, this could end up being a crucial game in terms of making it to a bowl.  We already have one loss.  Clemson and UGA look like 2 more.  Miami and VT won't be easy. Duke looks solid so far.  There aren't too many probable wins on the schedule.  So we need to win more than our fair share of toss ups.

Here is one.

As always, let's go jackets!

South Florida Preview

Its always hard to tell much from an FCS game, but I did like the way the defensive scheme looked.  We look like we are planning to attack more.  We'll see if that translates into results.

Offense looked ok.  Not great.  A little sloppy with turnovers.  Need to clean that up.  Would like to see the O line play a little better.  But, it was fine I guess.

Going into this week, I don't really know much about South Florida.  Willie Taggart built up the program to a pretty good level before he moved to Oregon and then FSU.  South Florida was 10-2 last year.  They played a VERY weak schedule, but they did win 10 games I guess.

I think we are probably the slightly better team, but South Florida is a legitimate program.  I would say they are probably on Wake Forest's level or so, talent wise.  Maybe actually a little better.  Meaning we probably should win (and we are favored, opened around 6, down to 3.5 now).  But they could definitely win, especially at home.

I'll be happy with any win here.  I don't care if its pretty.  Charlie Strong is a good coach.  He's in his first year, so not sure how much influence he has had so far.  But normally he is a very good defensive coach.  South Florida runs a spread offense but with a new QB.  So a lot of question marks.  I just hope we execute well and play smart football.  If we do that, we should be OK. 

As always, let's go Jackets!

2018 Season Preview

Here we go again.  And by that I mean we begin another season, but also here we go again with yet another Defensive Coordinator.  That job has been a revolving door for Coach Paul Johnson.  I didn’t know anything about Wommack, and didn’t like the job he did in 08-09.  At the time, I loved that Paul Johnson fired him after a great season for the team (2009), because the defense did not do very well.  In hindsight, given Paul Johnson’s defensive track record, maybe Wommack wasn’t so bad. 

I loved the Al Groh hire.  Paul Johnson is a guy who routinely has a good or very good offense, but a mediocre or bad defense.  So he hired a guy who is the opposite.   Al Groh routinely had good or very good defenses at UVA, but mediocre or bad offenses.  So, great combination right?  Well, it turns out, the head coach has some influence over which unit is good.  Its not all scheme.  It can be influenced by everything from personnel decisions (a talented player might be a LB and running back in high school) to practice time and the focus on certain units.  Groh apparently ran his program with a defensive focus, and could not replicate that as DC under Paul Johnson.

I thought Roof would do OK and he did, but he was sort of a bland hire in my opinion.  Unlikely to turn the defense around, but a solid coach who wouldn’t let it get terrible.

However, if we want to be any good, we simply need a better defense.  Will we have it under Nate Woody?  Well, he had a very good record at Appalachian St.  Whether that will translate to this level remains to be seen, but he might be a very good coach.  At a minimum, he runs the kind of scheme I want us to run.  Heavy on blitzing and creating negative plays.  No more bend but don’t break.  We attack.  Teams will either punt or score, but they’ll do it quickly.  I like that with our offensive scheme because it should mean we dominate time of possession, and wear out their defense while our defense stays rested.   Our offense rarely goes 3 and out, and tends to help our defense by shortening the game in terms of possessions.   But that advantage is wasted when we play bend but don’t break, so the other team tends to move the ball as well.  We played an 8 possession game against Mercer a couple years ago, largely because we couldn’t get their offense off the field.  We won 35-10, but there is really no excuse to let Mercer march up and down the field.  With this defense, we might allow 14-20 points for Mercer (maybe maybe not) but the game likely has 13 or 14 possessions, so we would have scored more like 50-60 ourselves, and the game would have been over at halftime.  And honestly, their offense probably starts to feel pressure and lose their rhythm, while our offense builds a rhythm.  That’s what happens when an offense goes on a 7-10 play drive, and the other offense only runs 3-5 plays, and that keeps happening. 

So, if we can successfully generate negative plays, backfield pressure, and turnovers, that should work in our favor in terms of how games flow.  By the second half our offense will be in rhythm, theirs will not, and our defense will be rested while theirs is not. 

Offensively, we should be pretty good this year.  We are normally good on offense, and this team has experience and talent at QB, B-back and A-back.  The O-line is the key, and is moderately experienced.  But that unit has been all over the map with no real explanation the past 5 years.  We’ll just have to see.  The WRs should be mediocre, but good enough to get the job done if Marshall plays better this year. 

I think we’ll be a good team, but once again a tough schedule.  Draw Louisville from the Atlantic with Clemson, UGA as always, the Coastal is pretty deep with Miami and VT being very good and UNC and Duke actually being pretty good.  So it’ll be a tough road, but here are my predictions:

Alcorn St – nothing to see here.  Easy win.  Excited to see the defensive scheme.  I want a lot of sacks and negative plays.

At South Florida – tough game here.  They’ve been a good team for 3 years, but this year they return very little.  Most of their yards and tackles graduated, and they don’t have many seniors in key positions.  Still a road game against a legitimate team.  I’ll say GT is 60-70% to win, and we should win.

At Pitt – Another tough but winnable game.  Road game at a team that’s always at least decent.  They have about the average experience level returning.  I’ll call this 50% for GT.

Clemson – Home game, but against a national title contender.  We know the story here.  Great D-line.  Probably a 31-10 loss or something like that.  I’ll give us perhaps a 5-10% chance.  They are simply loaded.  Need them to play a poor game.

Bowling Green – Not a good team.  From the MAC. Likely to be among the worst in FBS.  90% win.

At Louisville – very tough draw here from the Atlantic.  Post Lamar Jackson, but given Petrino’s track record, probably still the Atlantic’s 3^rd best team.  They do return the least experience in the ACC though.  A game we can win. I’ll call it 50% as well.

Duke – home game but Duke will probably be better this year than last.  This was our worst defensive game last year (actually maybe the worst defensive game in the CPJ era, which is really saying something).  Hopefully we get revenge.  I’ll call it 60% for us to win thanks to home field. 

At VT – We have really had their number lately.  Haven’t lost in Blacksburg since 2012.  Crazy.  Anyway, they should be good per usual, but don’t return all that much experience.  Below average nationally.  We will have a shot, but they will be favored.  I’ll call it 30-40% for GT.

At UNC – Most seem to think they’ll be better (hard to be much worse) but they will also be relatively inexperienced.  A lot of unknowns here.  Even though we are on the road, and haven’t won here since 2012, I’ll call it 50%. 

Miami – Supposedly a great team this year.  We’ll see, but they should be good at a a minimum.  Will be a tough game.  Not Clemson tough, but tough.  I’ll call it 25%. 

UVA – Home game and they are not supposed to be good.  I’ll say 80%.

At UGA – Hate em, but they’ll be good again.  Lost a fair amount of playmakers, so they won’t be quite as good as last year.  The way they are recruiting, I expect 2019 and 2020 to be VERY good years for UGA.  But this year may be a very small step backwards.  Still they will probably be a top 15 team, maybe better.  We play better in Athens than Atlanta in this series, but I’m only going to give us a 20% chance here.

Add that up and its about 6.5 wins.  Just a tough schedule.  Not very many gimmes.  I’ll predict 7-5, with one big upset (ooh I hope its UGA) and one flop (South Florida?   UVA?).  Unfortunately, pretty much the status quo.  But we should return to a bowl game.

If Coach Woody proves as good as we hope, maybe we could win 8 or 9, but I think its unlikely he’ll get the defense that good that fast. But here is to hoping.

As always, let’s go Jackets!