Virginia Tech Preview

Ok.  Its getting harder and harder to argue we might be a good team.  One close win against a should-be-overmatched team... maybe we were flat.  Sluggish first game.  Whatever.  Two games?  Well the second was on the road and we turned the ball over a bunch and Tulane maybe isn’t that bad.  Three?  Maybe these “lesser” teams aren’t actually overmatched.  

Gulp.  

We’ll find out soon.  

I don’t really want to re-watch the Ga. Southern game.  Nothing against Georgia Southern.  They are a good team for the FCS level.  Of course they are FBS now but they were good enough to upset Florida last year - even if that game may have an asterisk due to Florida’s... situation ... at the end of the year.  They probably should have beaten NC State, although State may be terrible.  

The first half was exactly what I wanted to see.  We looked like the much more talented team and built a 25 point lead.  It appeared to me we thought the game was over and got flat at halftime.  And once you lose your intensity its hard to get it back.  I don’t really understand how that happens.  There are only 13 or 14 games a year.  These kids spend a lot of hours practicing pretty close to year around.  I would think it would be easy to play 100% for ALL of EVERY game.  But clearly that is tough as most every team every year has a flat game or two.  

Anyway the second half was awful.  Looked like an effort issue to me.  I hope thats what it was.  It still remains to be seen if we can play with intensity and focus for an entire game.  I’m not sure we can.  

But like I said we’ll find out soon.  

Virginia Tech appears to be a Jekyll and Hyde kind of team.  They won at Ohio St. and then lost at home to East Carolina.  Of course, we don’t know that much about either of those teams yet.  I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that Ohio State, without Braxton Miller, may not be that much better than East Carolina, who actually may be pretty good.  Anyway, I think we know what we are going to get from Virginia Tech.  Really good defense, serviceable if less-than-stellar offense.  Tough team to beat in the end.  

I expect a close game, per usual.  I am anxious to see what new kitchen sink sort of defense Bud Foster has cooked up this time.  But in general these games tend to be limited in terms of possessions - making every possession critical.  VT doesn’t give up many big plays but we usually move the ball pretty well.  That eats clock.  And then our defense hasn’t been the best at getting teams off the field the past few years.  That is typical for us but tends to be magnified versus VT.  

In 2008 we only had 9 possessions, plus the final last gasp with about 30 seconds left.  (our 17 points were 1.7 points per possession counting the final drive).

In 2009 we only had 9 possessions not counting the final take a knee to end the game possession.  (3.1 points per possession).

In 2010 we had 10 possessions, for 2.1 points per possession.

In 2011 we had 10 possessions for 2.6 points per possession.

In 2012 we had 12 possessions, counting overtime, for 1.4 points per possession.  

In 2013 we had 11 possessions, or 0.9 points per possession.

Remember that 2.2 or so tends to be the national average for points per possession.  Given that VT is usually a much better than average defense, we did OK in 2008 and really well from 2009 to 2011.  Even though our total points weren’t that impressive, the Frank Beamer Paul Johnson GT VT games tend to be very short on possessions.  So our offense was actually pretty good.  The past two years though we’ve been largely shut down.  

In 6 years we’ve scored 119 points on 62 possessions.  Very close to 2.0 per possession.  Not bad, all things considered.  

We’ll need to do better than the last two years though to get the win here.  Especially given how our defense has looked so far.  I figure we need at least 1 touchdown on the first 3 drives or else we’ll already be down two scores.  On the road, in a game likely to have limited possessions, against VT’s defense, we don’t want to get down two scores.  We don’t want to invite them to start working the clock and working field position and managing the game.  

We need Justin Thomas to play well.  He has been starting to look more comfortable, but Lane Stadium and Virginia Tech’s defense, especially combined, are a whole different ball game.  In years past we have had success against VT with the standard triple option.  I suspect our struggles in 2012 and 2013 were related to getting away from that.  In 2012, we played the first game of the year.  Both offenses struggled.  I suspect due to normal timing and rhythm issues that many teams experience in week 1.  That also was the first year we put in some shotgun stuff and I wonder if the practice time we sacrificed from the base offense to put that in further hurt our execution in that game.  But the option always works better as the year progresses - so week 1 was a bad draw for us in 2012.  And of course last year it was well documented that Vad wasn’t very good at running the triple option, and we had installed the diamond and all sorts of wrinkles specifically for Vad.  Coach has explained several times that we weren’t very good at our base stuff last year and we were going to get back to our roots this year.  

On the other hand we haven’t really looked very good at the triple option so far this year.  We haven’t run it much, despite the alleged renewed focus.  I think we will need it Saturday.  Hopefully, we are ready.  I don’t expect to see too much trick stuff.  Just good old fashioned Paul Johnson standard offense.  We will probably have a bunch of blocking variations that may even be tweaked a little for what Foster has done the past two years, but from the TV’s perspective if you don’t watch closely you may not even notice.  We just need to execute.  Consistently.  Probably for the entire game.  

The defense needs to step up and play well.  We aren’t going to score 30+, I don’t think, so if we are to win, the defense needs to hold them to something reasonably.  21, maybe 24.  

In semi-related useless trivia (unless you are superstitious) all 3 of our career wins against VT have come on a saturday.  Here is the full record:

1990 - GT win on a Saturday.

2004 - GT loss on a Thursday.

2005 - GT loss on a Saturday.

2006 - GT win on a Saturday.

2007 - GT loss on a Thursday.

2008 - GT loss on a Saturday.

2009 - GT win on a Saturday.

2010 - GT loss on a Thursday.

2011 - GT loss on a Thursday.

2012 - GT loss on a Monday.

2013 - GT loss on a Thursday.  

So we are 3-2 on Saturdays and 0-6 on other days.  Finally, after 4 years, we are back on a Saturday for the first time since 2009.  Good omen?  Maybe.  

Unfortunately, I think we have enough to keep it close but that is all.  I predict a 7 point loss.  24-17 or 28-21.  Close all the way as always.  Good X and O battle as always.  But just not enough for us to get it done.  I hope I am pleasantly surprised.

As always, Go Jackets!!

Georgia Southern Preview

So that was ugly.  Or at least parts of it were.  Let's start with the good stuff.  The offense, when it gets out of its own way, looks pretty good.  Tulane didn't stop us much.  Outside of the turnovers, we looked good.  The turnovers were all caused in large part by unforced errors.  I mean, the first fumble was a good play by Tulane, but made possible by Thomas holding the ball carelessly.  The second fumble was just poor execution and the interception was a horrible decision to throw off the back foot under pressure.  That stuff is all correctable.  Scoring 31 points on only 11 possessions isn't bad (7 came from the defense, although in fairness 7 were set also set up by special teams so maybe this should be 24).  Especially when 3 of those ended with turnovers and another 1 was a missed FG.  The make or miss status of the FG isn't on the offense.  And the 11th possession was a successful run out the clock possession that ended the game at the Tulane 12 yard line.  

After the adjustments necessary to get down to our "real" possessions, we had 6 possessions on which we scored 3 TD's, had 2 FG attempts and 1 punt.  Thats 3.5 points per possession even if you assume misses on both FG's.  Note that I removed the 3 turnovers because they were caused by self inflicted issues we can fix.  I removed the last possession because we were merely running out the clock.  And I didn't count the interception we returned for a TD or the touchdown "drive" set up by the blocked punt at the Tulane 1 yard line.  

In short this was a weird game to judge the offense, but the bottom line is that Tulane did not stop us much.   I know we only had 357 total yards, which seems like a very low (embarassing?) total for a game like this.  However, the low number of possessions and short field we often enjoyed meant there weren't many yards to get.  In fact we only failed to gain 307 yards.  Had we scored a TD every time we had the ball we only would have had 664 yards.  Thats a low number for 100% of your yards.  Gaining over 50% of the yards available isn't terrible.  And again, 206 of the yards we missed came on drives ended prematurely by turnovers.  Remove those and the 12 yards from the end of the game, and really we only left 89 yards on the field on drives Tulane stopped us and forced 4th down.  

I know thats a lot of adjusting, but an early season sloppy game sometimes requires a lot.  I’m adjusting because, right now, I don’t care too much about our mistakes.  I would care a lot more if Tulane had the manpower to just beat our blocks and stop the offense.  

While we are discussing the good, special teams deserves a mention.  For the most part it was pretty good.  The blocked punt stands out.  Butker made a long FG to end the half, although he missed an easier one earlier.  Overall not bad.  

As has become customary, the defense has me worried.  We forced 3 turnovers but I don't like relying on turnovers to stop Tulane, and anyway they could say the same thing we did.  Their QB made a lot of unforced errors.  The interception for a TD was comically bad, for example.  Just a stupid throw.  We allowed them to move the ball too easily.  We gave up a long TD drive.  We gave up a big play TD.  The defense did get a stop after a turnover set up Tulane at our 10 yard line, and almost got a stop the other time that happened.  

Overall 21 points on 11 possessions isn't a total disaster.  And the run defense was pretty good.  I still get the feeling this unit is vulnerable and will cause us problems down the road.  But maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised.

As for Georgia Southern, this game should be interesting.  I'm still waiting for our first solid performance, without a lot of asterisks and "well except for this and that we looked good" type rationalizing.  Maybe we are good team who has played sloppy for two early games.  That isn't uncommon.  But we might just not be very good.  It remains to be seen.  Georgia Southern is a team that might be pretty good and certainly won't be scared.  They went into the Swamp and beat Florida last year.  They nearly (should have) beat NC State earlier this year.  Hard to say if NC State is any better though.  They don't really look like they are, so far.  Unfortunately Georgia Southern's other game was Savannah St, which doesn't tell us much.  And our games don't tell us much.

Just like Tulane, we have better talent and so we ought to win.  Probably by 20 points or more.  And we are at home.  But they are a decent team.  They have a new  coach and no longer run the same offense as us, having installed a new offense, similar to what Nevada used to run, although it still incorporates a lot of option.  All of it will be from the pistol formation, and they'll pass a little more, but probably still run 2/3 of the time.  Not sure how much has really changed with their “new” offense.  

What I’m hoping to see tomorrow is a consistent offense and an aggressive defense.  Limited mistakes and much cleaner execution.  While this game is losable, we should win, and its the last chance to work the kinks out before we go to Blacksburg for a game that looks increasingly tough all of a sudden.  I want us to score early and often with consistent execution.  They are a good offense that will likely move the ball, but we need to keep them from scoring touchdowns.  Force field goals when they get close and hopefully get some outright stops.  We’ll see how it goes.  

As always, go Jackets!  

Tulane Preview

So, the Wofford game obviously wasn’t what I wanted.  However, I don’t think it was as bad as it appeared.  Yeah, I know, it was 24-19 at one point in the 4th quarter.  First, I’d point out that we should wait and see if Wofford is pretty good at the FCS level.  In the past 3 years, they have lost 35-27 to a Clemson team that won 10 games, and then 24-7 to a South Carolina team that won 11.  Their yardage stats in both were better for Wofford than in the game Saturday as well.

Those Wofford teams were FCS playoff contenders, and this one isn’t supposed to be, but still, let’s see how good this one is.

Secondly, with two teams running option, it was a weird game.  A short game.  Only 9 possessions for us.  Offensively, I’m ok with 38 points on 9 possession (with a missed FG).  Thats not incredibly good offense against an FCS team, but not awful and could easily be indicative of normal first game sloppiness.  

The defense wasn’t good but at the same time, but for 1 busted assignment (the 92 yard TD run) it really wasn’t that bad.  Stop that one play, and its only 12 points.   Make the tackle on 4th and 6 and they score only 6 points.  And if Butker made his kick, it would have been 27-12 instead of 24-19, before becoming 34-12.  

I know thats a lot of “ifs” but it just shows the effect of such a short game.  Both teams ran the ball well and that leads to a lot of clock running.  Both teams ran only about 60 plays.  If we ran an offense like Oregon or Auburn, 24-19 may have happened in the 2nd quarter and maybe we win the game 63-26 and nobody really bats an eye.  

In true CPJ diction - “it is what it is”. 

I’m not too worried.  I still expect us to beat Tulane, although we’ll need to play at least average.  A bad game here and we could get beat.  Still don’t know too much of what to expect from them.  They should be a decent offense.  Obviously they’ll pass more, and better, than Wofford.  But Roof defenses are generally pretty good against the run - at least “regular” rushing offenses (ie not the option).  Hopefully we can stuff the run and make them one dimensional.  

Tulane’s defense is probably a bigger question mark.  They were pretty good last year, and particularly undersized and fast.  However, they lost over half their starters.  And in any case they didn’t play a terribly difficult schedule last year, to compile the defensive numbers they did.  So its hard to say.  I would expect, if we execute, we’d be able to score.  

Being on the road, especially opening a brand new stadium, makes things interesting.  I wonder if the crowd is going to be packed, with a loud and crazy crowd.  

Basically there are a lot of factors that are unknown, but bottom line, we have more talent and if we play like we should, we ought to win this game by at least 10-14 points.