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Thursday, September 18, 2014

Virginia Tech Preview

Ok.  Its getting harder and harder to argue we might be a good team.  One close win against a should-be-overmatched team... maybe we were flat.  Sluggish first game.  Whatever.  Two games?  Well the second was on the road and we turned the ball over a bunch and Tulane maybe isn’t that bad.  Three?  Maybe these “lesser” teams aren’t actually overmatched.  

Gulp.  

We’ll find out soon.  

I don’t really want to re-watch the Ga. Southern game.  Nothing against Georgia Southern.  They are a good team for the FCS level.  Of course they are FBS now but they were good enough to upset Florida last year - even if that game may have an asterisk due to Florida’s... situation ... at the end of the year.  They probably should have beaten NC State, although State may be terrible.  

The first half was exactly what I wanted to see.  We looked like the much more talented team and built a 25 point lead.  It appeared to me we thought the game was over and got flat at halftime.  And once you lose your intensity its hard to get it back.  I don’t really understand how that happens.  There are only 13 or 14 games a year.  These kids spend a lot of hours practicing pretty close to year around.  I would think it would be easy to play 100% for ALL of EVERY game.  But clearly that is tough as most every team every year has a flat game or two.  

Anyway the second half was awful.  Looked like an effort issue to me.  I hope thats what it was.  It still remains to be seen if we can play with intensity and focus for an entire game.  I’m not sure we can.  

But like I said we’ll find out soon.  

Virginia Tech appears to be a Jekyll and Hyde kind of team.  They won at Ohio St. and then lost at home to East Carolina.  Of course, we don’t know that much about either of those teams yet.  I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that Ohio State, without Braxton Miller, may not be that much better than East Carolina, who actually may be pretty good.  Anyway, I think we know what we are going to get from Virginia Tech.  Really good defense, serviceable if less-than-stellar offense.  Tough team to beat in the end.  

I expect a close game, per usual.  I am anxious to see what new kitchen sink sort of defense Bud Foster has cooked up this time.  But in general these games tend to be limited in terms of possessions - making every possession critical.  VT doesn’t give up many big plays but we usually move the ball pretty well.  That eats clock.  And then our defense hasn’t been the best at getting teams off the field the past few years.  That is typical for us but tends to be magnified versus VT.  

In 2008 we only had 9 possessions, plus the final last gasp with about 30 seconds left.  (our 17 points were 1.7 points per possession counting the final drive).

In 2009 we only had 9 possessions not counting the final take a knee to end the game possession.  (3.1 points per possession).

In 2010 we had 10 possessions, for 2.1 points per possession.

In 2011 we had 10 possessions for 2.6 points per possession.

In 2012 we had 12 possessions, counting overtime, for 1.4 points per possession.  

In 2013 we had 11 possessions, or 0.9 points per possession.

Remember that 2.2 or so tends to be the national average for points per possession.  Given that VT is usually a much better than average defense, we did OK in 2008 and really well from 2009 to 2011.  Even though our total points weren’t that impressive, the Frank Beamer Paul Johnson GT VT games tend to be very short on possessions.  So our offense was actually pretty good.  The past two years though we’ve been largely shut down.  

In 6 years we’ve scored 119 points on 62 possessions.  Very close to 2.0 per possession.  Not bad, all things considered.  

We’ll need to do better than the last two years though to get the win here.  Especially given how our defense has looked so far.  I figure we need at least 1 touchdown on the first 3 drives or else we’ll already be down two scores.  On the road, in a game likely to have limited possessions, against VT’s defense, we don’t want to get down two scores.  We don’t want to invite them to start working the clock and working field position and managing the game.  

We need Justin Thomas to play well.  He has been starting to look more comfortable, but Lane Stadium and Virginia Tech’s defense, especially combined, are a whole different ball game.  In years past we have had success against VT with the standard triple option.  I suspect our struggles in 2012 and 2013 were related to getting away from that.  In 2012, we played the first game of the year.  Both offenses struggled.  I suspect due to normal timing and rhythm issues that many teams experience in week 1.  That also was the first year we put in some shotgun stuff and I wonder if the practice time we sacrificed from the base offense to put that in further hurt our execution in that game.  But the option always works better as the year progresses - so week 1 was a bad draw for us in 2012.  And of course last year it was well documented that Vad wasn’t very good at running the triple option, and we had installed the diamond and all sorts of wrinkles specifically for Vad.  Coach has explained several times that we weren’t very good at our base stuff last year and we were going to get back to our roots this year.  

On the other hand we haven’t really looked very good at the triple option so far this year.  We haven’t run it much, despite the alleged renewed focus.  I think we will need it Saturday.  Hopefully, we are ready.  I don’t expect to see too much trick stuff.  Just good old fashioned Paul Johnson standard offense.  We will probably have a bunch of blocking variations that may even be tweaked a little for what Foster has done the past two years, but from the TV’s perspective if you don’t watch closely you may not even notice.  We just need to execute.  Consistently.  Probably for the entire game.  

The defense needs to step up and play well.  We aren’t going to score 30+, I don’t think, so if we are to win, the defense needs to hold them to something reasonably.  21, maybe 24.  

In semi-related useless trivia (unless you are superstitious) all 3 of our career wins against VT have come on a saturday.  Here is the full record:

1990 - GT win on a Saturday.
2004 - GT loss on a Thursday.
2005 - GT loss on a Saturday.
2006 - GT win on a Saturday.
2007 - GT loss on a Thursday.
2008 - GT loss on a Saturday.
2009 - GT win on a Saturday.
2010 - GT loss on a Thursday.
2011 - GT loss on a Thursday.
2012 - GT loss on a Monday.
2013 - GT loss on a Thursday.  

So we are 3-2 on Saturdays and 0-6 on other days.  Finally, after 4 years, we are back on a Saturday for the first time since 2009.  Good omen?  Maybe.  

Unfortunately, I think we have enough to keep it close but that is all.  I predict a 7 point loss.  24-17 or 28-21.  Close all the way as always.  Good X and O battle as always.  But just not enough for us to get it done.  I hope I am pleasantly surprised.


As always, Go Jackets!!

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