Stats

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Bowl Game Preview - Air Force

This preview will not be as detailed as usual.  Sort of my non violent protest against the bowl system for being so insignificant.  Seriously, these games really don't matter.  Auburn-Oregon does.  Maybe the other BCS games.  But thats pretty much it.

This game matters slightly more for us than it should for 2 reasons.  First, because I think all GT players and fans would like to end our bowl losing streak.  And two, because I think all GT players and fans would like to keep the winning season streak alive.  A loss obviously makes us 6-7 rather than 7-6.

Of course, there is another key reason that is always relevant.  Making a bowl game allows you an extra 4-5 weeks of practice.  That is crucial and should not be overlooked.  Its almost like having an extra spring practice.  Teams that don't make a bowl are not allowed to keep practicing.   But of course, that is only relevant with regard to MAKING a bowl.  Once you are there, winning or losing doesnt really matter with regard to this extra time.

Anyway, the real reason this preview won't be very long is that I wanted to relax over Christmas.  I decided to sacrifice the interests of the 27 of you (optimistic?) who are reading.  But seriously, bowl games don't matter.  

On to the preview:

All season long I have looked at the "talent" in my game previews.  I did this because talent is important.  There is no reliable way to evaluate "talent" alone, but I used the next best thing, the recruiting rankings, because at least they try to do so.  

However, even though talent does matter, it is overrated.  I think the results on the field as compared to the "talent" numbers I put up show that.  

Why am I talking about all of this nonsense?  Simple.  This time, "talent" will be key.  Why?  Because of the 5 weeks both teams have to prepare.  

The "5 week" argument is a point that fans of opposing teams have used to deride Paul Johnson's offense since we lost to LSU.  The way most of them use the argument, they are wrong.  5 weeks does not magically allow you to shut down our offense.  But it does do something.  

5 weeks is a big help for the defense.  All season long, offenses keep practicing the same stuff.  All they are concerned with is perfecting whatever it is they do.  There might be a tweak here or there, but for the most part, the offense does the same thing every week.  This is because the offense is in control of what happens.  They control the formation (the way both teams line up and the personnel both teams have on the field) and when the ball is snapped.  They also control where the ball goes.

The defense reacts to all of this.  They have to be ready for what the other team does.  Every week is a race.  They do spend time every week practicing their own stuff, but much of that they do in a given week is related to the changes they must make, which are dictated by what the opposing offense is going to do.  

Obviously then, the offense would prefer there to be less time to prepare.  If the game could be played only 1 day after the previous game, the offense would be ready.  They just go out and do the same stuff.  The defense would like to have 6 months to get ready, if possible.

5 weeks is not 6 months, but is much longer than the 1 week the defense usually gets.  

So what does it mean when its an advantage for the defense?  Well, it means there are generally fewer surprises.  (this is why, in my opinion, you see so many more trick plays and wrinkles in bowl games).  So it basically just comes down to execution.  Can you block the guy or can't you?  Can you tackle the guy or can't you?  Can you fake the guy out or can't you?  There is much less to be gained from your scheme faking out the opposition in a bowl game than a regular season game.  

This is even more true for GT and Air Force.  Both teams run schemes that are very similar, and are run by very few teams in FBS.  Thus, in an average weak, we (in my opinion) get more out of scheme fooling the opponents than other teams do.  

Additionally, because our offenses are so similar, neither team has to do much work to develop a scout team.  In fact, I suspect both teams have spent considerable time simply scrimmaging the first string offense against the first string defense.  

Given all of this, I think both defenses will be well prepared, and both offenses will only have success to the extent that they are bigger, stronger, or quicker they the defense, and then to the extent they execute well.

(as a quick side note, what I have written above explains pretty well why LSU beat us in 08.  There were other factors as well, but #1 was that LSU had better athletes.  They were, and still are, poorly coached, so they struggled through that season going only 7-5, but with 5 weeks to prepare, their poor coaching did not hurt them as badly.  Their players were much better prepared for what we were going to do than they had been all season, and their considerable athleticism was allowed to play much closer to its full potential.)

So, who between Air Force and GT has better athletes?  Well, if you put any stock in the recruiting rankings, it sure looks like GT.  I did not put up the numbers because so many of Air Force's players are not even evaluated.  There are several guesses you or I could make as to why, but for now let's just say that, from watching the two teams, I agree with the very limited numerical evidence that GT has better athletes.  

There are 3 factors that can trump athleticism in a bowl game.  

Number 1 is motivation.  Obviously if one team is flat and doesnt really want to be at the game, and the other team is jacked up and ready to go, then the better athletes might lose.  I don't think that will be a problem for us since we have been having a bad season for a while now and I saw no signs of us giving up all year.  We played a poor game against Miami, but I think it was execution, not lack of effort.  I think our kids want to win this game, and I think they will show up and play accordingly.

Number 2 is coaching, and I think we have no problems there.  Air Force may have a very good coaching staff (I think they do, for the record) but they are not going to have a significant advantage there over Paul Johnson and Al Groh, in my opinion.

Number 3 is experience.  I don't know much about Air Force, I confess, but we are a relatively young team.  So they probably do have an advantage there.  They have executed well for most of the year, much moreso than we have.  

According to the computers, Air Force is supposed to win by 3 to 7 points.  But I think the 5 weeks throws that off, for the reasons discussed above.  Taking everything into account, I expect us to win, but its close enough that 1 or 2 plays could sway the outcome.  I expect a very close, hard fought game.

Our biggest edge will be Anthony Allen.  My understanding of Air Force is that they are a little weak on the interior D line.  We won't fool them with what we do, but if they can't stop the dive, they will have a lot of trouble stopping much else either.  They will have to commit too many resources to the middle, and the QB keeps and pitches will be there.

This will also be our first bowl game under Paul Johnson where we don't have a significant disadvantage on both lines.  LSU and Iowa were very good on the D line, and I think even their O lines were better than our D lines each of the last 2 years.  This game should be different.  If anything, I give us the edge overall on both lines.  Our O line, as I just mentioned, should be able to open holes for Allen.  Our D line may not win the battle against their O line, but I expect them to compete well.  They certainly won't be as overmatched as they were against teams like Miami and UGA.

I'll predict GT by 7, on a late TD.  But I do think this game will be close.

Let's Go Jackets!

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Week 14 Picks

The UGA review, as well as the season review and the bowl prediction, are coming in the next few weeks. I apologize for being slow getting the UGA game review up. I am still in mourning. I expected us to lose a close game (as I predicted) but that does not make it hurt any less.

Anyway, on to the picks.

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

This week:

0 for 2 on free money. Tough week. VT covered barely, and then N.C. State actually lost. Maybe a dumb bet, in hindsight. The Wolfpack are just losers, and they were playing a big game.

2 for 8 on Solid Bets. Very tough week. I won FSU and GT, but the other 6 hurt me and many were very close. Miami was indeed a trap and was not close. Alabama and UNC had the spread covered easily and threw it away late. Ok State had a chance to cover. Oregon also had covered but then gave up a late score to win by only 19 (spread was 19.5). And Clemson was, well, Clemson.

Tossups were 2 for 3 this week. Arkansas and Wake covered. Boise State joins the large group of teams that had covered but then threw the game, or at least the spread, away.

So far on the season:

Free Money

19 for 40

Solid Bets

25 for 57

Toss Ups

20 for 36

Total

65 for 133

Weeks like that, with several teams making me look good at first only to lose the bet at the very end, are exactly why betting real money is bad for your psychological health.

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

Just because I don’t want to have a week with no free money picks, I’ll claim that FSU is free money. Its not really. But I think it is a good bet. FSU is a 4.5 point underdog. VT may win the game but I think it will be very close, and I actually like FSU to win. Go noles. Can’t believe I just said that.

Solid Bets:

Auburn favored by 4.5 against the Lame Flops. I actually think Carolina wins. Auburn is very bad against the pass, and USC is good throwing deep. Auburn was lucky to win at home earlier this year. I think their luck runs out today.

Oklahoma is supposed to win by 3.5 over Nebraska. Really can’t figure out Nebraska, but in my opinion they have struggled offensively more than they should when they have played teams with top talent. So I think the Sooners win by 4 or more.

Toss-Ups:

Oregon at Oregon St, Oregon favored by 16.5. Take the ducks. This is a huge tossup. You never know what to expect from the Civil War.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Week 13 Preview - Clean, Old Fashioned Hate

I can’t believe its already here. The only game we play that matters for 365 days. I don’t know about you guys, but I still vividly remember the awful feeling I had when Thomas let that pass go through his hands and I knew the game was over.

Back then I was thinking “how soon can next Thanksgiving get here?” But I never dreamed that this season would have gone this badly. Now that its here, I find myself wishing for a little more time. Because I know once Saturday night gets here, in all likelihood the hope I have now will be replaced by that empty feeling that comes with knowing that I’ll have to wait 365 more days for another chance to hope.

From talking to GT fans, and reading message boards this week, it is clear I am not alone in my pessimism. Most Tech fans either know we are going to lose, or assume we will very probably lose. A handful of GT fans are screaming “but this is a 5-6 UGA team. I know we are bad, but they are worse! Come on!” Well, yes and no. UGA is bad, but I don’t know about worse. See the discussion below about the two teams records…

Let’s take a look at a few objective facts. All rankings below are courtesy of the Sagarin Rankings. I use Sagarin not because I think its perfect, but because it gives us an objective measure of teams relative strength, and the only thing that factors into the computation is how a team has performed, THIS season, on the field. I like that he gives no bonus points for the name on your jersey or how you played last year. Here goes:

GT – 6 wins. But 1 was against an FCS team (ranked 205), and 4 of the 5 FBS wins were against teams ranked 168, 118, 96 and 90. And we struggled to beat 118 and 96 (Wake, Duke). We have 1 win over a winning team, UNC, and they are #42, but are only 6 – 5.

Our 5 losses have been by an average of 13.2 points, to teams ranked 18, 30, 31, 45, and 106.

We ourselves are ranked 67th, and have played the 81st toughest schedule (the easiest among ACC teams).

UGA – 5 wins, 1 over an FCS team (ranked 210) and 4 others over teams ranked 53, 58, 98 and 178. So we have the best win, over UNC, but UGA has the next two best, over Tennessee and Kentucky. The also have only one win over a team with a winning record (Kentucky) and they are only 6-5 (like UNC). However, UGA has struggled much less than we have in their wins. All 5 wins were comfortable.

Their 6 losses were to teams ranked 5, 9, 16, 25, 28 and 55. And they only lose by 8.8 points on average.

UGA is ranked 35th, with the 18th toughest schedule (third toughest in the SEC).

Here is how Sagarin says the two teams would perform against each other’s schedules (adjusted for home field advantage):

GT:

ULL – W by 24

USC – L by 19

Arkansas – L by 14

Miss. St. – L by 10

Colorado – L by 3

Vanderbilt – W by 13

Tennessee – L by 1

Kentucky – L by 4

Florida – L by 13

Idaho st. – W by 36

Auburn – L by 20

So we would be 3-8 supposedly against their schedule. That’s a sobering thought.

UGA

S.C. St – W by 35

Kansas – W by 24

UNC – W by 2

NC St. – W by 3

Wake – W by 21

MTSU – W by 36

UVA – W by 19

Clem – W by 1

VT – L by 8

Miami – W by 1

Duke – W by 23

Yes, UGA would supposedly be 10-1 against our schedule. Supposedly. I don’t really believe that, because UGA this season has been finding ways to lose. So that game at Clemson, or at home against Miami, could easily be a loss. As could UNC and N.C. State. UGA would be far from dominant against most of schedule.

But the point is UGA is slightly better than most teams on our schedule, and slightly worse than most teams on theirs. So don’t be fooled by the 5-6 record.

For the record, while most UGA fans would have you believe that this is the case every year, that is actually pretty far from normal. This has been a down year for the ACC. In a normal year, the middle of the pack teams in the ACC are actually pretty close to the middle of the pack teams in the SEC. Sometimes (2008 for example) they are actually better. UGA would not be 10-1 against our schedule most years. Last year was a good example. If you did a similar analysis last year, that UGA team would have entered the game on Thanksgiving with a record nowhere near our 10-1 if they had played our schedule. And Sagarin had us winning by about a touchdown, if I recollect correctly.

But this year is the one year every 5 or 6 or so where UGA fans are actually right. They would probably have a much better record against our schedule. I would guess that they still would have found a way to lose at least 3, but they are almost certainly better than our 6-5.

For what its worth, Sagarin has us losing by 12 to UGA on a neutral field, and thus by 15 in Athens. But remember, we were supposed to lose to VT by more than 7, and we had a real chance to win that game at the end. Also, UGA was supposed to lose to us last year. So, the good news is, we are still going to suit up and play the game. The other good news is we have compiled this gloom and doom record according to Sagarin by playing most of the year without much focus or intensity. When we have played with both, most notably against UNC and VT, we have turned in some of our better performances of the season.

Another factor helping us is that the game is in Athens. 4 of our last 5 wins over UGA came in Athens, and believe it nor we have won 3 of the last 6 played there.

If we show up to play, I think this will be a close game.

Here is a look at both team’s seasons from a different perspective. This chart compares the statistical offensive and defensive performances of both teams against their opponent’s season averages. I only did this for the 9 games that both teams played against real competition. I threw out MTSU, SC State, ULL and Idaho St.

UGA

Off.

Def.

avg yards

yards

avg points

points

avg yards

yards

avg points

points

SC

346.6

253

21.4

6

401.3

354

33.6

17

Ark

343.9

433

22.7

24

491.5

392

37.9

31

Miss. St

361

387

20.1

12

384.9

314

26.7

24

Colo

399.4

409

29.5

27

368.4

393

24.8

29

Vandy

430.2

402

30.9

41

285.1

269

17.3

14

Tenn

381.2

547

25.6

43

360

140

27.3

0

Ky

347

290

28.9

44

441.5

423

34.7

31

Flor

300.2

439

20.2

31

364.6

450

31.3

34

Aub

355.7

354

24.9

31

505.2

463

42.8

49

362.8

390.4

24.9

28.7

400.3

355.3

30.7

25.4

First thing to notice is that UGA averages a 3 point win, yet their record in these 9 games is 3-6. That tells you they are winning big, and losing the close ones. That’s true, they lost close games to Florida, Colorado and Arkansas, while all three wins were basically blowouts.

An important stat that I didn’t show above is that UGA, somewhat amazingly, has a +8 turnover margin on the season. That is 18th best in the country. Yet they are 5-6. Last year their record was easy to explain. They had a -18 turnover margin, and that was why they were so bad. This year they have been even worse, without all the turnovers.

In my opinion that shows poor coaching. Losing close games and losing despite a healthy advantage in turnovers means your team is underachieving. I doubt I would get much argument from most UGA fans on this point. They have not been a well coached team this year, and that could bode well for us if the game is close.

The chart reveals some strange things about UGA. They gain 28 more yards, on average, than their opponent gives up, and they hold opponents to 50 yards below their season average. They score 4 more points than their opponents allow on average, and they hold opponents 5 points below their season average. They out gain their opponent by 40 yards on average. Yet, they are 3-6 in these games.

They also out gained their opponent in 3 of their 6 losses. They only were out gained themselves once in their 3 wins. That was Kentucky, who strangely lost handily despite having a 430 to 290 yard edge.

All of this makes UGA pretty difficult to figure out. They appear to be a good football team, by looking at the computer rankings and the numbers. Yet their record and their curious ability to lose games when you think there is no way they could lose says otherwise. Take Auburn for example. UGA looks like the better team for one quarter, and then despite appearing to have players that are every bit as good as Auburn’s, they proceed to get outscored 42-10 the rest of the way and never really compete in the game again. Statistically, they have a good defense (25th against the run, 29th against the pass, 40th in points allowed). Offensively their stats are not great, but their players sure look good.

Overall, they are a very confusing team. I keep coming back to coaching. I still think Richt is a good coach, but its possible that both coordinators are not very good. Bobo has been a bad offensive coordinator for a while now. This is Grantham’s first season, but his defense has not performed well in the big games. They found a way to give a sputtering Florida offense 31 points in regulation. They got scorched by Auburn. They somehow allowed Kentucky over 30 points and 400 yards, although the offense covered for the defense and won the game. So, just a very difficult team to figure out, but I am not convinced their coaching is very good.

Here is a look at GT:

Off:

Def:

avg yards

yards

avg points

points

avg yards

yards

avg points

points

KU

430.5

407

34.4

25

310.5

320

18

28

UNC

344.3

448

23.3

30

378.4

352

25

24

NCST

334.4

363

21.1

28

403

527

32.7

45

Wake

428.4

339

37.9

24

302.6

268

21.7

20

UVA

397.3

536

27.5

33

415.2

376

27

21

Clem

323.8

325

16.7

13

345.6

403

25.4

27

VT

354.1

426

18.9

21

410.8

335

34.6

28

Miami

319.3

409

19.4

10

428.9

507

27.7

35

Duke

443.8

410

36.5

30

391

443

25.8

20

375.1

407

26.2

23.8

376.2

392.3

26.4

27.6

In some ways, we are the opposite of UGA. We get outscored by 4 points on average. We are 4-5 in these games, which is better than UGA’s 3-6 even though they outscore opponents on average. Meaning we win the close games, and lose in blowouts, while they win blowouts and lose the close ones.

You don’t have to look very far to see our problems. We gain 32 yards more than our opponents allow on average, yet we score almost 3 points fewer than they average giving up. That indicates we can move the ball but we don’t take advantage of scoring opportunities. Not exactly a news flash. We need to be more consistent in or near the red zone. Sometimes, it’s the other team making plays, but often in my opinion the problem has been our offense either missing assignments, or committing silly turnovers and penalties. For the record, we are 55th in the country with a turnover margin of 0.

When we win we almost always out gain the opponent. The lone exception was Duke. In our 5 losses, we out gained the opponent in two of them, Kansas and VT.

Defensively we are bad but not terrible. We surrender slightly more yards and points that our opponents average, but the difference is only 16 yards and 1 point.

Based upon all of that, I guess you can expect about 30 points and 400 yards from UGA. They average a little less than both of those, but we give up a little more than teams average. Conversely, you can expect us to get about 18 points and about 370 yards.

That is, if both teams plays as they have all season. But I think we will come out with significantly more intensity and focus than we have all year. Good news for us is that we are going to suit up and play the game. We don’t simply have to forfeit because we are double digit underdogs.

Here is a look at the relative talent of both teams, as shown by the recruiting rankings.

2007

2008

2009

2010

GT

UGA

GT

UGA

GT

UGA

GT

UGA

Best

81

83

80

91

80

86

80

83

Top 5

79.4

81.8

78

84

79.4

83.6

79

81.4

Top 10

78.5

80.4

77.3

82.1

78.8

82.1

78.2

80.4

Avg.

75.65

78.5

76.53

79.5

76.85

80.3

77.06

78.6

Total Players

20

18

15

23

21

20

16

17

We pretty much already knew this, but there you can see a solid advantage for UGA everywhere. They may be the most talented team we have faced all season. Their individual players are very good. Of course, they have probably been more talented than every single team they have lost to this season, including Auburn. Florida may be the only exception, if there is one. So this doesn’t necessarily mean a whole lot, but its something.

Overall, I expect our players to be very angry and very motivated by last year’s game. UGA will be motivated as well, but we won’t suffer from what I would consider flat performances that we put up in the Kansas, Wake, Duke and possibly even Miami games (Miami was right after the loss that knocked us out of the conference race… not sure we got over that). We will be focused and ready to play, because I think its clear that this is not a game we are expected to win just by showing up. Believe it or not, that has been the case most of the season, even though we are only 6-5. At the very least, we have been expected to win just by showing up in most of our games according to the players and fans. Additionally, this is the first game since VT that really meant something. Our two main goals are to win the ACC and beat UGA. The VT loss ended the ACC champ hopes. We Miami and Duke were relatively meaningless. This game won’t be, for obvious reasons.

When we have been double digit underdogs we have played well. I think that was only against VT, but still could be significant. I think this team is young and has suffered from their own expectations. Most of these young players are used to winning, from the last 2 years, and they do not appreciate how much work and effort goes into all that winning. Consistent focus and urgency has been a huge problem. But all of that goes away when the players know they are expected to lose big. I think they give the coaches their full attention and practice hard all week. And as most coaches will tell you, you play how you practice. Rarely do teams practice hard for a week and play poorly, and rarely do they practice poorly and play well.

Coach Johnson has said his biggest frustration with this team is that he can’t find their “hot button” on a consistent basis. Well, I don’t think that will be a problem this week.

With all that said, I have no idea how to pick this game. I think we will play well, so a blowout would surprise me. I think we have the coaching advantage, by a lot. Groh is a much better mind than Bobo, in my opinion, and so he should win that coaching battle. Johnson is basically better than anyone he goes up against, but we will see how Grantham can do. I think the coaching edge gives us an advantage in a close game. But I worry about UGA winning too many individual matchups. Especially on the lines. I think their D line and O line will both wear us down.

I think, unfortunately, that all of that adds up to a close loss. But I think the game will come down to the wire and could go either way. Last year we didn’t make the plays when we had the chance at the end. Hopefully we do this year. I think we will have a chance in the 4th quarter. Hopefully, we show more toughness then they do.

Let’s Go Jackets!