Week 13 Preview - Clean, Old Fashioned Hate

I can’t believe its already here. The only game we play that matters for 365 days. I don’t know about you guys, but I still vividly remember the awful feeling I had when Thomas let that pass go through his hands and I knew the game was over.

Back then I was thinking “how soon can next Thanksgiving get here?” But I never dreamed that this season would have gone this badly. Now that its here, I find myself wishing for a little more time. Because I know once Saturday night gets here, in all likelihood the hope I have now will be replaced by that empty feeling that comes with knowing that I’ll have to wait 365 more days for another chance to hope.

From talking to GT fans, and reading message boards this week, it is clear I am not alone in my pessimism. Most Tech fans either know we are going to lose, or assume we will very probably lose. A handful of GT fans are screaming “but this is a 5-6 UGA team. I know we are bad, but they are worse! Come on!” Well, yes and no. UGA is bad, but I don’t know about worse. See the discussion below about the two teams records…

Let’s take a look at a few objective facts. All rankings below are courtesy of the Sagarin Rankings. I use Sagarin not because I think its perfect, but because it gives us an objective measure of teams relative strength, and the only thing that factors into the computation is how a team has performed, THIS season, on the field. I like that he gives no bonus points for the name on your jersey or how you played last year. Here goes:

GT – 6 wins. But 1 was against an FCS team (ranked 205), and 4 of the 5 FBS wins were against teams ranked 168, 118, 96 and 90. And we struggled to beat 118 and 96 (Wake, Duke). We have 1 win over a winning team, UNC, and they are #42, but are only 6 – 5.

Our 5 losses have been by an average of 13.2 points, to teams ranked 18, 30, 31, 45, and 106.

We ourselves are ranked 67^th, and have played the 81^st toughest schedule (the easiest among ACC teams).

UGA – 5 wins, 1 over an FCS team (ranked 210) and 4 others over teams ranked 53, 58, 98 and 178. So we have the best win, over UNC, but UGA has the next two best, over Tennessee and Kentucky. The also have only one win over a team with a winning record (Kentucky) and they are only 6-5 (like UNC). However, UGA has struggled much less than we have in their wins. All 5 wins were comfortable.

Their 6 losses were to teams ranked 5, 9, 16, 25, 28 and 55. And they only lose by 8.8 points on average.

UGA is ranked 35^th, with the 18^th toughest schedule (third toughest in the SEC).

Here is how Sagarin says the two teams would perform against each other’s schedules (adjusted for home field advantage):

GT:

ULL – W by 24

USC – L by 19

Arkansas – L by 14

Miss. St. – L by 10

Colorado – L by 3

Vanderbilt – W by 13

Tennessee – L by 1

Kentucky – L by 4

Florida – L by 13

Idaho st. – W by 36

Auburn – L by 20

So we would be 3-8 supposedly against their schedule. That’s a sobering thought.

UGA

S.C. St – W by 35

Kansas – W by 24

UNC – W by 2

NC St. – W by 3

Wake – W by 21

MTSU – W by 36

UVA – W by 19

Clem – W by 1

VT – L by 8

Miami – W by 1

Duke – W by 23

Yes, UGA would supposedly be 10-1 against our schedule. Supposedly. I don’t really believe that, because UGA this season has been finding ways to lose. So that game at Clemson, or at home against Miami, could easily be a loss. As could UNC and N.C. State. UGA would be far from dominant against most of schedule.

But the point is UGA is slightly better than most teams on our schedule, and slightly worse than most teams on theirs. So don’t be fooled by the 5-6 record.

For the record, while most UGA fans would have you believe that this is the case every year, that is actually pretty far from normal. This has been a down year for the ACC. In a normal year, the middle of the pack teams in the ACC are actually pretty close to the middle of the pack teams in the SEC. Sometimes (2008 for example) they are actually better. UGA would not be 10-1 against our schedule most years. Last year was a good example. If you did a similar analysis last year, that UGA team would have entered the game on Thanksgiving with a record nowhere near our 10-1 if they had played our schedule. And Sagarin had us winning by about a touchdown, if I recollect correctly.

But this year is the one year every 5 or 6 or so where UGA fans are actually right. They would probably have a much better record against our schedule. I would guess that they still would have found a way to lose at least 3, but they are almost certainly better than our 6-5.

For what its worth, Sagarin has us losing by 12 to UGA on a neutral field, and thus by 15 in Athens. But remember, we were supposed to lose to VT by more than 7, and we had a real chance to win that game at the end. Also, UGA was supposed to lose to us last year. So, the good news is, we are still going to suit up and play the game. The other good news is we have compiled this gloom and doom record according to Sagarin by playing most of the year without much focus or intensity. When we have played with both, most notably against UNC and VT, we have turned in some of our better performances of the season.

Another factor helping us is that the game is in Athens. 4 of our last 5 wins over UGA came in Athens, and believe it nor we have won 3 of the last 6 played there.

If we show up to play, I think this will be a close game.

Here is a look at both team’s seasons from a different perspective. This chart compares the statistical offensive and defensive performances of both teams against their opponent’s season averages. I only did this for the 9 games that both teams played against real competition. I threw out MTSU, SC State, ULL and Idaho St.

UGA

Off.					Def.
	avg yards	yards	avg points	points		avg yards	yards	avg points	points
SC	346.6	253	21.4	6		401.3	354	33.6	17
Ark	343.9	433	22.7	24		491.5	392	37.9	31
Miss. St	361	387	20.1	12		384.9	314	26.7	24
Colo	399.4	409	29.5	27		368.4	393	24.8	29
Vandy	430.2	402	30.9	41		285.1	269	17.3	14
Tenn	381.2	547	25.6	43		360	140	27.3	0
Ky	347	290	28.9	44		441.5	423	34.7	31
Flor	300.2	439	20.2	31		364.6	450	31.3	34
Aub	355.7	354	24.9	31		505.2	463	42.8	49
	362.8	390.4	24.9	28.7		400.3	355.3	30.7	25.4

First thing to notice is that UGA averages a 3 point win, yet their record in these 9 games is 3-6. That tells you they are winning big, and losing the close ones. That’s true, they lost close games to Florida, Colorado and Arkansas, while all three wins were basically blowouts.

An important stat that I didn’t show above is that UGA, somewhat amazingly, has a +8 turnover margin on the season. That is 18^th best in the country. Yet they are 5-6. Last year their record was easy to explain. They had a -18 turnover margin, and that was why they were so bad. This year they have been even worse, without all the turnovers.

In my opinion that shows poor coaching. Losing close games and losing despite a healthy advantage in turnovers means your team is underachieving. I doubt I would get much argument from most UGA fans on this point. They have not been a well coached team this year, and that could bode well for us if the game is close.

The chart reveals some strange things about UGA. They gain 28 more yards, on average, than their opponent gives up, and they hold opponents to 50 yards below their season average. They score 4 more points than their opponents allow on average, and they hold opponents 5 points below their season average. They out gain their opponent by 40 yards on average. Yet, they are 3-6 in these games.

They also out gained their opponent in 3 of their 6 losses. They only were out gained themselves once in their 3 wins. That was Kentucky, who strangely lost handily despite having a 430 to 290 yard edge.

All of this makes UGA pretty difficult to figure out. They appear to be a good football team, by looking at the computer rankings and the numbers. Yet their record and their curious ability to lose games when you think there is no way they could lose says otherwise. Take Auburn for example. UGA looks like the better team for one quarter, and then despite appearing to have players that are every bit as good as Auburn’s, they proceed to get outscored 42-10 the rest of the way and never really compete in the game again. Statistically, they have a good defense (25^th against the run, 29^th against the pass, 40^th in points allowed). Offensively their stats are not great, but their players sure look good.

Overall, they are a very confusing team. I keep coming back to coaching. I still think Richt is a good coach, but its possible that both coordinators are not very good. Bobo has been a bad offensive coordinator for a while now. This is Grantham’s first season, but his defense has not performed well in the big games. They found a way to give a sputtering Florida offense 31 points in regulation. They got scorched by Auburn. They somehow allowed Kentucky over 30 points and 400 yards, although the offense covered for the defense and won the game. So, just a very difficult team to figure out, but I am not convinced their coaching is very good.

Here is a look at GT:

Off:					Def:
	avg yards	yards	avg points	points		avg yards	yards	avg points	points
KU	430.5	407	34.4	25		310.5	320	18	28
UNC	344.3	448	23.3	30		378.4	352	25	24
NCST	334.4	363	21.1	28		403	527	32.7	45
Wake	428.4	339	37.9	24		302.6	268	21.7	20
UVA	397.3	536	27.5	33		415.2	376	27	21
Clem	323.8	325	16.7	13		345.6	403	25.4	27
VT	354.1	426	18.9	21		410.8	335	34.6	28
Miami	319.3	409	19.4	10		428.9	507	27.7	35
Duke	443.8	410	36.5	30		391	443	25.8	20
	375.1	407	26.2	23.8		376.2	392.3	26.4	27.6

In some ways, we are the opposite of UGA. We get outscored by 4 points on average. We are 4-5 in these games, which is better than UGA’s 3-6 even though they outscore opponents on average. Meaning we win the close games, and lose in blowouts, while they win blowouts and lose the close ones.

You don’t have to look very far to see our problems. We gain 32 yards more than our opponents allow on average, yet we score almost 3 points fewer than they average giving up. That indicates we can move the ball but we don’t take advantage of scoring opportunities. Not exactly a news flash. We need to be more consistent in or near the red zone. Sometimes, it’s the other team making plays, but often in my opinion the problem has been our offense either missing assignments, or committing silly turnovers and penalties. For the record, we are 55^th in the country with a turnover margin of 0.

When we win we almost always out gain the opponent. The lone exception was Duke. In our 5 losses, we out gained the opponent in two of them, Kansas and VT.

Defensively we are bad but not terrible. We surrender slightly more yards and points that our opponents average, but the difference is only 16 yards and 1 point.

Based upon all of that, I guess you can expect about 30 points and 400 yards from UGA. They average a little less than both of those, but we give up a little more than teams average. Conversely, you can expect us to get about 18 points and about 370 yards.

That is, if both teams plays as they have all season. But I think we will come out with significantly more intensity and focus than we have all year. Good news for us is that we are going to suit up and play the game. We don’t simply have to forfeit because we are double digit underdogs.

Here is a look at the relative talent of both teams, as shown by the recruiting rankings.

	2007			2008			2009			2010
	GT	UGA		GT	UGA		GT	UGA		GT	UGA
Best	81	83		80	91		80	86		80	83
Top 5	79.4	81.8		78	84		79.4	83.6		79	81.4
Top 10	78.5	80.4		77.3	82.1		78.8	82.1		78.2	80.4
Avg.	75.65	78.5		76.53	79.5		76.85	80.3		77.06	78.6
Total Players	20	18		15	23		21	20		16	17

We pretty much already knew this, but there you can see a solid advantage for UGA everywhere. They may be the most talented team we have faced all season. Their individual players are very good. Of course, they have probably been more talented than every single team they have lost to this season, including Auburn. Florida may be the only exception, if there is one. So this doesn’t necessarily mean a whole lot, but its something.

Overall, I expect our players to be very angry and very motivated by last year’s game. UGA will be motivated as well, but we won’t suffer from what I would consider flat performances that we put up in the Kansas, Wake, Duke and possibly even Miami games (Miami was right after the loss that knocked us out of the conference race… not sure we got over that). We will be focused and ready to play, because I think its clear that this is not a game we are expected to win just by showing up. Believe it or not, that has been the case most of the season, even though we are only 6-5. At the very least, we have been expected to win just by showing up in most of our games according to the players and fans. Additionally, this is the first game since VT that really meant something. Our two main goals are to win the ACC and beat UGA. The VT loss ended the ACC champ hopes. We Miami and Duke were relatively meaningless. This game won’t be, for obvious reasons.

When we have been double digit underdogs we have played well. I think that was only against VT, but still could be significant. I think this team is young and has suffered from their own expectations. Most of these young players are used to winning, from the last 2 years, and they do not appreciate how much work and effort goes into all that winning. Consistent focus and urgency has been a huge problem. But all of that goes away when the players know they are expected to lose big. I think they give the coaches their full attention and practice hard all week. And as most coaches will tell you, you play how you practice. Rarely do teams practice hard for a week and play poorly, and rarely do they practice poorly and play well.

Coach Johnson has said his biggest frustration with this team is that he can’t find their “hot button” on a consistent basis. Well, I don’t think that will be a problem this week.

With all that said, I have no idea how to pick this game. I think we will play well, so a blowout would surprise me. I think we have the coaching advantage, by a lot. Groh is a much better mind than Bobo, in my opinion, and so he should win that coaching battle. Johnson is basically better than anyone he goes up against, but we will see how Grantham can do. I think the coaching edge gives us an advantage in a close game. But I worry about UGA winning too many individual matchups. Especially on the lines. I think their D line and O line will both wear us down.

I think, unfortunately, that all of that adds up to a close loss. But I think the game will come down to the wire and could go either way. Last year we didn’t make the plays when we had the chance at the end. Hopefully we do this year. I think we will have a chance in the 4^th quarter. Hopefully, we show more toughness then they do.

Let’s Go Jackets!