My bad on not making a post last week. Just didn't get around to it.
Anyway, couple of great wins. Miami was a truly great offensive performance. 27 points on 8 possessions against what is a really good defense. GT's defense and special teams played well enough to win.
UVA was a true team effort. And the first game in a long time where I think special teams was the best unit. Defense played a horrible half and a really good half. Offense was ok. Not great, but good enough to win with help from a full team effort.
Unfortunately, now we have UGA. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see much hope here. Our offense is very good. Top 15 or so nationally. And their defense isn't as good as last year. They are only about 20th or 25th best in the country. But that's still good enough to slow us down some. I expect us to score somewhere between 2.0 and 3.0 points per possession, probably. And that's really not bad.
But UGA's offense is loaded. Top 5 nationally. Top 5 in both rushing (yards per carry) and passing (passer rating). They have no weaknesses. And our defense isn't good. I'm worried we'll struggle to force third down, sort of like 2012.
I expect after 8 possessions or so, we'll have between 17 and 24 points. But I'm afraid they'll have 40+. They are just loaded on offense. And after 8 possessions, the game will likely be into the 4th quarter and nearly over, since both teams will likely be moving the ball and eating clock.
Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. As always, Let's go Jackets!
Stats
Friday, November 23, 2018
Friday, November 9, 2018
Miami Preview
Well, we made it interesting, but in the end I wasn't off by much. 45-31 prediction, 38-28 final score. You gotta take that kinda prediction result wherever you can get it. Of course I'd have preferred us to keep that comfortable lead and never let the game get in doubt, but that just isn't who GT is apparently.
Anyway, on to Miami. We are somehow favored by 4 points. Miami is collapsing I guess. While not playing terribly, they haven't looked like a good team since UNC. The last 4 games, they barely beat FSU, and then lost by 1 or 2 scores to UVA, BC and then Duke. We'll see if we can keep that trend going.
Football Outsiders has their stats up for the season finally, so I'm going to walk through the matchup with their advance stats.
First, our offense (ranked #11) versus Miami's defense (ranked #10).
Overall efficiency - we generate 3.26 points per drive (adjusted for field position). This ranks 9th nationally. They allow 1.32, which is 7th nationally.
Offensive drive success rate - 48.8% of our drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should. This is 11th nationally. They allow 22.7%, which is 16th nationally.
Available yards - we have gained 60.4% of available yards on the season, which is 9th nationally. They have given up 34.3% of available yards, or 10th nationally.
First down rate - 80.5% of our drives result in at least one first down, which is 11th nationally. They allow at least one first down on 64.9% of drives, which is 20th nationally.
Touch down rate - We score a TD on 45.1% of our drives, which is 5th nationally. They allow a TD on 15.5% of drives, which is 13th nationally.
TD after first down - On drives where we get at least 1 first down, we score a TD on 56.1% of our drives, which is 9th nationally. They allow 23.8% TDs in this situation, which is 11th nationally.
Ball control - 75.6% of our drives last at least 4 plays, which is 5th nationally. They allow 60.8%, which is 23rd nationally.
Turnovers - 13.4% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 98th nationally. They force turnovers on 14.4% of drives, which is 27th nationally.
So Miami's defense is consistently good at everything, and is the best defense we will play all season except Clemson (currently UGA is next, ranked 24th, so not even that close). Our offense is consistently good at everything, except turnovers.
Looking over all categories, this should be a really good battle. Turnovers will be key. We are bad at ball security. Miami is good at taking the ball away, though no better at that than they are at everything else.
Points will be tough to come by against this defense, so we definitely can't afford to waste possessions. We also don't want to give the ball to a bad offense in good field position, particularly with how bad our own defense is. Must take care of the ball.
Moving on to...
our defense (ranked 95th) versus Miami's offense (ranked #86).
Overall efficiency - they generate 1.9 points per drive (adjusted for field position). This ranks 92nd nationally. We allow 2.44, which ranks 86th.
Offensive drive success rate - 29.6% of their drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should. This is 87th nationally. We allow 39.7%, which is 95th nationally.
Available yards - they have gained 41.2% of available yards on the season, which is 96th nationally. We allow 49.2%, which is 91st nationally.
First down rate - 67.3% of their drives result in at least one first down, which is 101st nationally. We allow 78.2%, which is 106th nationally.
Touch down rate - They score a TD on 24.5% of their drives, which is 84th nationally. We allow 33.3%, which is 97th nationally.
TD after first down - On drives where they get at least 1 first down, they score a TD on 36.4% of our drives, which is 75th nationally. We allow 42.6%, which is 83rd nationally.
Ball control - 63.3% of their drives last at least 4 plays, which is 89th nationally. We allow 74.4%, which is 121st nationally.
Turnovers - 14.3% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 109th nationally. We force turnovers on 17.9% of drives, which is 5th nationally.
Turnovers really tell the story here. Once again, both teams are consistently even across all categories (here, both roughly equally BAD). Except turnovers. They are terrible at taking care of the ball, and we are great at taking the ball away. Based on this, we should expect to force a turnover on one of every 6 possessions or so. And we will need it. Assuming a 12 possession game, we need at least two turnovers forced.
Otherwise it looks like a pretty even game. I generally favor Miami's situation here. I'd rather have a bad offense trying to score on a bad defense, than a good offense trying to score on a good defense. But we'll see. This looks an awful lot like a game where the turnover battle decides the outcome.
I'll call it 28-24, to whoever win the turnovers. I'll pick GT.
As always, Let's Go Jackets!
Anyway, on to Miami. We are somehow favored by 4 points. Miami is collapsing I guess. While not playing terribly, they haven't looked like a good team since UNC. The last 4 games, they barely beat FSU, and then lost by 1 or 2 scores to UVA, BC and then Duke. We'll see if we can keep that trend going.
Football Outsiders has their stats up for the season finally, so I'm going to walk through the matchup with their advance stats.
First, our offense (ranked #11) versus Miami's defense (ranked #10).
Overall efficiency - we generate 3.26 points per drive (adjusted for field position). This ranks 9th nationally. They allow 1.32, which is 7th nationally.
Offensive drive success rate - 48.8% of our drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should. This is 11th nationally. They allow 22.7%, which is 16th nationally.
Available yards - we have gained 60.4% of available yards on the season, which is 9th nationally. They have given up 34.3% of available yards, or 10th nationally.
First down rate - 80.5% of our drives result in at least one first down, which is 11th nationally. They allow at least one first down on 64.9% of drives, which is 20th nationally.
Touch down rate - We score a TD on 45.1% of our drives, which is 5th nationally. They allow a TD on 15.5% of drives, which is 13th nationally.
TD after first down - On drives where we get at least 1 first down, we score a TD on 56.1% of our drives, which is 9th nationally. They allow 23.8% TDs in this situation, which is 11th nationally.
Ball control - 75.6% of our drives last at least 4 plays, which is 5th nationally. They allow 60.8%, which is 23rd nationally.
Turnovers - 13.4% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 98th nationally. They force turnovers on 14.4% of drives, which is 27th nationally.
So Miami's defense is consistently good at everything, and is the best defense we will play all season except Clemson (currently UGA is next, ranked 24th, so not even that close). Our offense is consistently good at everything, except turnovers.
Looking over all categories, this should be a really good battle. Turnovers will be key. We are bad at ball security. Miami is good at taking the ball away, though no better at that than they are at everything else.
Points will be tough to come by against this defense, so we definitely can't afford to waste possessions. We also don't want to give the ball to a bad offense in good field position, particularly with how bad our own defense is. Must take care of the ball.
Moving on to...
our defense (ranked 95th) versus Miami's offense (ranked #86).
Overall efficiency - they generate 1.9 points per drive (adjusted for field position). This ranks 92nd nationally. We allow 2.44, which ranks 86th.
Offensive drive success rate - 29.6% of their drives generate more value than the field position suggests it should. This is 87th nationally. We allow 39.7%, which is 95th nationally.
Available yards - they have gained 41.2% of available yards on the season, which is 96th nationally. We allow 49.2%, which is 91st nationally.
First down rate - 67.3% of their drives result in at least one first down, which is 101st nationally. We allow 78.2%, which is 106th nationally.
Touch down rate - They score a TD on 24.5% of their drives, which is 84th nationally. We allow 33.3%, which is 97th nationally.
TD after first down - On drives where they get at least 1 first down, they score a TD on 36.4% of our drives, which is 75th nationally. We allow 42.6%, which is 83rd nationally.
Ball control - 63.3% of their drives last at least 4 plays, which is 89th nationally. We allow 74.4%, which is 121st nationally.
Turnovers - 14.3% of our drives end in a turnover, which is 109th nationally. We force turnovers on 17.9% of drives, which is 5th nationally.
Turnovers really tell the story here. Once again, both teams are consistently even across all categories (here, both roughly equally BAD). Except turnovers. They are terrible at taking care of the ball, and we are great at taking the ball away. Based on this, we should expect to force a turnover on one of every 6 possessions or so. And we will need it. Assuming a 12 possession game, we need at least two turnovers forced.
Otherwise it looks like a pretty even game. I generally favor Miami's situation here. I'd rather have a bad offense trying to score on a bad defense, than a good offense trying to score on a good defense. But we'll see. This looks an awful lot like a game where the turnover battle decides the outcome.
I'll call it 28-24, to whoever win the turnovers. I'll pick GT.
As always, Let's Go Jackets!
Friday, November 2, 2018
UNC Preview
Ok so more excellent analysis from me. Nailed that VT prediction. 31-21 VT just like I said.
Obviously, this team (really this whole division) is difficult to predict. Speaking of this division, GT technically could still win the Coastal this year. I guess we are as good as anybody else, from a "good for the ACC" point of view. Which is just to say that nobody in the Coastal is any good.
UVA - lost to Indiana (currently 4-5 and #68 in Massey).
Pitt - lost by 31 to UCF and 45 to Penn St.
VT - lost to 2-7 Old Dominion at home.
Miami - blown out by LSU (although that's not really embarrassing in this context)
GT - lost to South Florida (#57 in Massey currently)
UNC - lost to East Carolina, Cal and a bunch of teams.
Really Duke is the best we've got. They won their non conference games. Although they lost to UVA, Pitt and VT.
Basically the Coastal is a pile of hot garbage. Whoever wins it will be "embarrassing" for the ACC. Like, oh, that's your champ? So, might as well be us. If we win out, we actually might do it. I know, I know, big if.
So, let's try not to lose immediately. UNC is not good. Not good at all. But its a road game, and stope me if you've heard this before, but with a defense as bad as ours, you can lose almost any game.
Seriously though, UNC is awful. They have managed to keep several games close, but their defense is currently ranked #108 by football outsiders, and their offense is #92. Breathtaking. Neither unit has a pulse.
So pretty much the usual for GT when playing a bad ACC team, meaning:
1 - we should score a ton
2 - we need to execute and not turn the ball over, and if we do that, we will score a ton
3 - they should not score much, if our defense plays well
4 - you can never depend on #3
5 - a couple untimely turnovers and we may find ourselves in a tough game
Let's hope for a Louisville/VT-like shellacking and a nice relaxing fourth quarter. I'll call it 45-31, good guys.
As always, Let's Go Jackets!
Obviously, this team (really this whole division) is difficult to predict. Speaking of this division, GT technically could still win the Coastal this year. I guess we are as good as anybody else, from a "good for the ACC" point of view. Which is just to say that nobody in the Coastal is any good.
UVA - lost to Indiana (currently 4-5 and #68 in Massey).
Pitt - lost by 31 to UCF and 45 to Penn St.
VT - lost to 2-7 Old Dominion at home.
Miami - blown out by LSU (although that's not really embarrassing in this context)
GT - lost to South Florida (#57 in Massey currently)
UNC - lost to East Carolina, Cal and a bunch of teams.
Really Duke is the best we've got. They won their non conference games. Although they lost to UVA, Pitt and VT.
Basically the Coastal is a pile of hot garbage. Whoever wins it will be "embarrassing" for the ACC. Like, oh, that's your champ? So, might as well be us. If we win out, we actually might do it. I know, I know, big if.
So, let's try not to lose immediately. UNC is not good. Not good at all. But its a road game, and stope me if you've heard this before, but with a defense as bad as ours, you can lose almost any game.
Seriously though, UNC is awful. They have managed to keep several games close, but their defense is currently ranked #108 by football outsiders, and their offense is #92. Breathtaking. Neither unit has a pulse.
So pretty much the usual for GT when playing a bad ACC team, meaning:
1 - we should score a ton
2 - we need to execute and not turn the ball over, and if we do that, we will score a ton
3 - they should not score much, if our defense plays well
4 - you can never depend on #3
5 - a couple untimely turnovers and we may find ourselves in a tough game
Let's hope for a Louisville/VT-like shellacking and a nice relaxing fourth quarter. I'll call it 45-31, good guys.
As always, Let's Go Jackets!
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