This game matters slightly more for us than it should for 2 reasons. First, because I think all GT players and fans would like to end our bowl losing streak. And two, because I think all GT players and fans would like to keep the winning season streak alive. A loss obviously makes us 6-7 rather than 7-6.
Of course, there is another key reason that is always relevant. Making a bowl game allows you an extra 4-5 weeks of practice. That is crucial and should not be overlooked. Its almost like having an extra spring practice. Teams that don't make a bowl are not allowed to keep practicing. But of course, that is only relevant with regard to MAKING a bowl. Once you are there, winning or losing doesnt really matter with regard to this extra time.
Anyway, the real reason this preview won't be very long is that I wanted to relax over Christmas. I decided to sacrifice the interests of the 27 of you (optimistic?) who are reading. But seriously, bowl games don't matter.
On to the preview:
All season long I have looked at the "talent" in my game previews. I did this because talent is important. There is no reliable way to evaluate "talent" alone, but I used the next best thing, the recruiting rankings, because at least they try to do so.
However, even though talent does matter, it is overrated. I think the results on the field as compared to the "talent" numbers I put up show that.
Why am I talking about all of this nonsense? Simple. This time, "talent" will be key. Why? Because of the 5 weeks both teams have to prepare.
The "5 week" argument is a point that fans of opposing teams have used to deride Paul Johnson's offense since we lost to LSU. The way most of them use the argument, they are wrong. 5 weeks does not magically allow you to shut down our offense. But it does do something.
5 weeks is a big help for the defense. All season long, offenses keep practicing the same stuff. All they are concerned with is perfecting whatever it is they do. There might be a tweak here or there, but for the most part, the offense does the same thing every week. This is because the offense is in control of what happens. They control the formation (the way both teams line up and the personnel both teams have on the field) and when the ball is snapped. They also control where the ball goes.
The defense reacts to all of this. They have to be ready for what the other team does. Every week is a race. They do spend time every week practicing their own stuff, but much of that they do in a given week is related to the changes they must make, which are dictated by what the opposing offense is going to do.
Obviously then, the offense would prefer there to be less time to prepare. If the game could be played only 1 day after the previous game, the offense would be ready. They just go out and do the same stuff. The defense would like to have 6 months to get ready, if possible.
5 weeks is not 6 months, but is much longer than the 1 week the defense usually gets.
So what does it mean when its an advantage for the defense? Well, it means there are generally fewer surprises. (this is why, in my opinion, you see so many more trick plays and wrinkles in bowl games). So it basically just comes down to execution. Can you block the guy or can't you? Can you tackle the guy or can't you? Can you fake the guy out or can't you? There is much less to be gained from your scheme faking out the opposition in a bowl game than a regular season game.
This is even more true for GT and Air Force. Both teams run schemes that are very similar, and are run by very few teams in FBS. Thus, in an average weak, we (in my opinion) get more out of scheme fooling the opponents than other teams do.
Additionally, because our offenses are so similar, neither team has to do much work to develop a scout team. In fact, I suspect both teams have spent considerable time simply scrimmaging the first string offense against the first string defense.
Given all of this, I think both defenses will be well prepared, and both offenses will only have success to the extent that they are bigger, stronger, or quicker they the defense, and then to the extent they execute well.
(as a quick side note, what I have written above explains pretty well why LSU beat us in 08. There were other factors as well, but #1 was that LSU had better athletes. They were, and still are, poorly coached, so they struggled through that season going only 7-5, but with 5 weeks to prepare, their poor coaching did not hurt them as badly. Their players were much better prepared for what we were going to do than they had been all season, and their considerable athleticism was allowed to play much closer to its full potential.)
So, who between Air Force and GT has better athletes? Well, if you put any stock in the recruiting rankings, it sure looks like GT. I did not put up the numbers because so many of Air Force's players are not even evaluated. There are several guesses you or I could make as to why, but for now let's just say that, from watching the two teams, I agree with the very limited numerical evidence that GT has better athletes.
There are 3 factors that can trump athleticism in a bowl game.
Number 1 is motivation. Obviously if one team is flat and doesnt really want to be at the game, and the other team is jacked up and ready to go, then the better athletes might lose. I don't think that will be a problem for us since we have been having a bad season for a while now and I saw no signs of us giving up all year. We played a poor game against Miami, but I think it was execution, not lack of effort. I think our kids want to win this game, and I think they will show up and play accordingly.
Number 2 is coaching, and I think we have no problems there. Air Force may have a very good coaching staff (I think they do, for the record) but they are not going to have a significant advantage there over Paul Johnson and Al Groh, in my opinion.
Number 3 is experience. I don't know much about Air Force, I confess, but we are a relatively young team. So they probably do have an advantage there. They have executed well for most of the year, much moreso than we have.
According to the computers, Air Force is supposed to win by 3 to 7 points. But I think the 5 weeks throws that off, for the reasons discussed above. Taking everything into account, I expect us to win, but its close enough that 1 or 2 plays could sway the outcome. I expect a very close, hard fought game.
Our biggest edge will be Anthony Allen. My understanding of Air Force is that they are a little weak on the interior D line. We won't fool them with what we do, but if they can't stop the dive, they will have a lot of trouble stopping much else either. They will have to commit too many resources to the middle, and the QB keeps and pitches will be there.
This will also be our first bowl game under Paul Johnson where we don't have a significant disadvantage on both lines. LSU and Iowa were very good on the D line, and I think even their O lines were better than our D lines each of the last 2 years. This game should be different. If anything, I give us the edge overall on both lines. Our O line, as I just mentioned, should be able to open holes for Allen. Our D line may not win the battle against their O line, but I expect them to compete well. They certainly won't be as overmatched as they were against teams like Miami and UGA.
I'll predict GT by 7, on a late TD. But I do think this game will be close.
Let's Go Jackets!
