Week 14 Picks

The UGA review, as well as the season review and the bowl prediction, are coming in the next few weeks. I apologize for being slow getting the UGA game review up. I am still in mourning. I expected us to lose a close game (as I predicted) but that does not make it hurt any less.

Anyway, on to the picks.

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

This week:

0 for 2 on free money. Tough week. VT covered barely, and then N.C. State actually lost. Maybe a dumb bet, in hindsight. The Wolfpack are just losers, and they were playing a big game.

2 for 8 on Solid Bets. Very tough week. I won FSU and GT, but the other 6 hurt me and many were very close. Miami was indeed a trap and was not close. Alabama and UNC had the spread covered easily and threw it away late. Ok State had a chance to cover. Oregon also had covered but then gave up a late score to win by only 19 (spread was 19.5). And Clemson was, well, Clemson.

Tossups were 2 for 3 this week. Arkansas and Wake covered. Boise State joins the large group of teams that had covered but then threw the game, or at least the spread, away.

So far on the season:

Free Money	19 for 40
Solid Bets	25 for 57
Toss Ups	20 for 36
Total	65 for 133

Weeks like that, with several teams making me look good at first only to lose the bet at the very end, are exactly why betting real money is bad for your psychological health.

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

Just because I don’t want to have a week with no free money picks, I’ll claim that FSU is free money. Its not really. But I think it is a good bet. FSU is a 4.5 point underdog. VT may win the game but I think it will be very close, and I actually like FSU to win. Go noles. Can’t believe I just said that.

Solid Bets:

Auburn favored by 4.5 against the Lame Flops. I actually think Carolina wins. Auburn is very bad against the pass, and USC is good throwing deep. Auburn was lucky to win at home earlier this year. I think their luck runs out today.

Oklahoma is supposed to win by 3.5 over Nebraska. Really can’t figure out Nebraska, but in my opinion they have struggled offensively more than they should when they have played teams with top talent. So I think the Sooners win by 4 or more.

Toss-Ups:

Oregon at Oregon St, Oregon favored by 16.5. Take the ducks. This is a huge tossup. You never know what to expect from the Civil War.