Well here we are. Paul Johnson's last game. I'm disappointed. He had a good run, and I know many fans have grown tired of the offense and (lack of) defense. But I'll miss watching the option.
Geoff Collins looks to me like a great hire. The only real question mark is that he hasn't been a head coach very long. But GT, in the current landscape, isn't likely to hire a guy who has been a head coach for 5+ years (at the FBS level anyway) and has done well consistently. A guy like that will usually get better jobs.
Geoff Collins has a very solid resume, and has done well in 2 years at Temple. He has been at GT for two separate stints, under O'Leary and Gailey, so he should understand the unique challenges posed by GT. He has also been at Alabama under Saban, and been the defensive coordinator for 6 years combined, for good teams at Miss. St. and Florida. That's a very solid resume. His defense's ranked as follows, per football outsiders (opponent adjusted efficiency ratings):
2016 - 6th (Florida)
2015 - 22nd (Florida)
2014 - 20th (Miss. St)
2013 - 14th (Miss. St.)
2012 - 47th (Miss. St.)
2011 - 26th (Miss. St.)
Not bad. Just the one "down" year, but that year was still very solid by our standards (47th nationally). The other years were very good. Granted he had access to better talent than he'll likely get at GT, especially at Florida. That may not be true at Miss. St., but we'll see how he can recruit. All signs point to success there. He's a young, energetic, personable guy, and has a reputation for being all about social media. Apparently that's what the kids are all into these days (obligatory "get off my lawn" post here - I'm 34 but I freely admit I already don't understand 20 year olds these days). Supposedly Geoff Collins is a great recruiter though. We'll see. But I'm excited.
As for Minnesota, I know nothing about their personnel. Statistically, they are a good defense and bad offense. I generally don't like that matchup for us, because our defense usually manages to allow anyone to score. Other teams we played that fit that profile include Miami, UVA and Duke. We did well against Miami, poorly against Duke, and you could argue we were lucky to beat UVA. I expect this game will look like UVA. We will need help from the special teams and defense to win.
We should be able to score some. Minnesota's defense is good but not great. 38th nationally. But they also had the extra time to get ready, for whatever that's worth (according to my statistical analysis in the past, its not worth much at all). Their offense is down in the 80's. Our offense is 17th, but our defense is 105th or so.
The actual numbers suggest a very even game. Our opponent adjusted offense per possession score is 2.91, meaning we score that much per possession against a theoretically average defense. Minnesota is at 2.01. So our offense is much better. But their defense is 1.92, while ours is 2.74. So our offense is 0.9 points better, but our defense is 0.82 points worse. Suggesting, in a 10 possession game, we should win by 1 point. That doesn't inspire a lot of confidence.
Vegas has us favored by 5-6. I hope they know something I don't. I see a complete toss up. And perhaps even Minnesota winning.
But, as always, Let's go Jackets. Hope we send Paul Johnson out the right way.
