Syracuse Preview

 Well, that game was no fun.  I thought, early in the 4th quarter, I had the game predicted pretty well.  We trailed 28-21.  Looked about right.  

UCF is a good team, well coached and a really tough offense to stop.  We just turned the ball over too much and gave them too many short fields.  The game actually had 15 possessions, which is a couple more than average.  I was hoping for a low possession game, something like 10, where we eat up clock and keep the ball so our defense can rest.  That didn't work.  UCF ran 92 plays.  

We've gotta take better care of the ball, but that's expected with a true freshmen at QB.  He still looks like he has loads of potential, so there's good news.  And Gibbs appears to be as good as advertised.  Great kick return to setup the first TD, and then he scored the next 2 himself.  I believe he had around 200 yards of all purpose offense.  

So some positive takeaways but more or less a forgettable result.  

On to Syracuse.  Interesting team.  Not supposed to be any good this year according the preseason experts.  But Cuse's offense was supposed to be the better unit.  It has not played out that way so far.  If you believe the hype, UNC and Pitt are supposed to be good teams.  And Cuse kept it close early in both, with a scrappy defense but an ABYSMAL offense.  

This offense for Syracuse is seriously among the worst I've ever seen statistically.  Averaging 180 yards per game total.  120 passing 60 rushing.  That is awful.  Less than 2 yards per carry rushing.  Only 4.1 yards per attempt passing.  If they run once and pass twice in a series, on average they'd be facing 4th down.  That's... impressively bad.

Now its only two games, but its been two epically bad offensive performances.  

Their defense statistically is middle of the pack in the ACC so far.  We are middle of the pack in both offense and defense.  Given that, I'd expect to see us move the ball steadily as we have, but struggle to score.  However, we should end up with something like 24, 28 or 31.  They should be at 10 or 14, if I'm right.  

I know the Vegas spread is GT by 8 (and the computers, which still factor in last year right now, have this game as about a toss up), but I think we win comfortably.  We'll see.  Maybe Cuse playing at home for the first time figures out its offense.  Maybe UNC and Pitt are just really, really good on defense (but I doubt it).  

I think GT 28-10 or maybe 31-14.  That's my pick.

As always, let's go Jackets!

UCF Preview

 Great start to Year 2 under Collins.  Obviously, no idea if FSU is any good or still a dumpster fire.  They definitely have some talent, but are they a good team?  Either way, getting a win on the road in week 1 is excellent.  

How good does that mean we are? My gut is that we are much improved (sorta obvious) but still not all that good.  I'm still looking for 4-7 or 5-6 this year, probably.  Although I'd love to be wrong.  

If we win again tomorrow, I'm probably wrong.  So let's all hope for that.  UCF is favored by about 7.  Based on the preseason hype, they should be a worse defense than FSU (somewhat worse, not a huge difference) but quite a bit better on offense.  Really no weakness on offense.  Phil Steele has their O-line and running backs top 10 nationally, and their WRs and QBs about 25th nationally (and this is out 130 teams, because it was done before any covid opt outs).  So, they should be very tough to stop and will be a good test for our defense.  

On defense, their secondary is very good but they are weaker than FSU up front.  UCF has a good but not great defensive line, but average linebackers.  No real weak link on the team, which is why they are ranked, but their defense is worse than their offense, and the linebackers are probably their worst unit.  That may mean we try to attack them with delay handoffs, screen passes, play action, and similar plays designed to stress the linebackers speed and ability to read keys.  Wildcat option runs with Sims might work as well.

I'm looking for us to hopefully sustain drives, eat clock, shorten the game in terms of possessions, and try to manufacture a couple extra stops with a big sack or a turnover.  If the game has 10 possessions (equal to last week but lower than average), I would expect UCF to score maybe 4 or 5 TDs.  Something like 38-31 or 35-28 is the most likely outcome in my opinion, with UCF winning.  We need the offense to execute well all day and for Sims to continue making plays if we want to pull the upset.  

Given that our offensive line looked OK against what is supposed to be a great D-line, I'm excited to see how we can do against a D line that isn't quite that good (although UCF is still pretty good there).  Establishing a consistent rushing attack would obviously help, and we've got several very talented running backs to help with that effort.  

I'm curious and optimistic, but trying to remind myself we are still rebuilding, we are still young, and UCF is a good team.  I think we can win, but I know we are not supposed to...

As always, let's go Jackets!

2020 Season Preview and FSU Preview

 Previewing both the season and the first game at the same time.  We'll start with the season.

Actually a fairly difficult schedule.  UCF is the only non-conference game, and while they are not as good as usual, they are still pretty solid and should be close to top 25.  The ACC was mostly young last year (which was why it was so bad) and most teams are expected to be improved.  In what I'd call a shocking revelation, Phil Steele (who ranks each position group nationally every year) has the top 4 defensive lines in the country all from the ACC.  That's right.  I mean, I think he's wrong about that.  That can't be true.  But that's his ranking.  And we play all four of them (#1 Clemson, #2 Pitt, #3 Miami and #4 FSU).  Actually, if this were a regular year, we would draw the top 5 bc UGA is ranked #5.

Anyway, the point is the ACC is supposed to be much improved, and we play 10 teams from it, including Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Notre Dame.  

So, while I think we will be better, probably a lot better, than last year, it may not show up in the win column yet.  We'll see.

The main reason we'll be better is improved depth and experience in year 2.  The second biggest reason is the O-line.  Put simply, it was not good at all last year.  It'll be better this year.  We had 3 transfers but I believe the Vandy transfer decided not to play after all.  Still, younger players have grown and we do have two grad transfers coming in who are much better suited to the size and style we want.  

And we actually flashed some decent talent at WR last year.  Running back we are well stocked with an underrated, and perhaps one of the country's best, RBs in Jordan Mason, plus young talent in last year's 4 star freshman Jamious Griffin and this year's 4 star recruit Jahmyr Gibbs.  Griffin flashed potential last year, and Gibbs looks like a future star with incredible speed, quickness, and decent strength.  

That just leaves QB, and frankly I think James Graham will start and I think he was better last year than most others seem to think.  He was just a freshman playing behind a bad O-line.  But we have solid talent behind him that may develop as well.

I expect we are still 1-2 years away from being as good as we should get on offense, but I expect this year to be much improved.

On defense, I am hoping for solid if not spectacular.  Again, improved depth and experience.  We aren't going to have any heavy hitters on the D-line, but we are solid and deep there, and the scheme will help.  I was impressed last year with our ability to disguise blitzes and coverages (less impressed with the offensive scheming, but you win some you lose some I guess).  

Add it all up and I think we are 2 TDs better this year than last year.  Sadly, if you add 14 points to our score in every game last year, we only go from 3 wins to 5 wins (and one of those extra wins is the Citadel).  So, I still expect 4-7 or 5-6 probably at best, unfortunately.  However, we should be in more close games, and that is something.

As for FSU, they are supposedly loaded on defense (see the D-line discussion above).  To go with that D-line are top 30 units nationally at LB and DB.  Offensively, they are not supposed to be nearly as good, and its the first year of their coaching staff putting in what they do.  Given that, I would expect this to be a relatively low scoring game.  Lots of punts.  Offenses might get going.  I look for something like 28-20.  31-24 maybe.  FSU is favored by 12.5.  I think we keep it closer than that, but it'll be tough to win.  They've got talent and are at "home" (although that means less in the covid environment with no or few fans).  Its asking a lot for us to get a win in Tallahassee in week 1.  I think we could, but I expect FSU by a TD in a low scoring game.  

As always, let's go Jackets!