Great start to Year 2 under Collins. Obviously, no idea if FSU is any good or still a dumpster fire. They definitely have some talent, but are they a good team? Either way, getting a win on the road in week 1 is excellent.
How good does that mean we are? My gut is that we are much improved (sorta obvious) but still not all that good. I'm still looking for 4-7 or 5-6 this year, probably. Although I'd love to be wrong.
If we win again tomorrow, I'm probably wrong. So let's all hope for that. UCF is favored by about 7. Based on the preseason hype, they should be a worse defense than FSU (somewhat worse, not a huge difference) but quite a bit better on offense. Really no weakness on offense. Phil Steele has their O-line and running backs top 10 nationally, and their WRs and QBs about 25th nationally (and this is out 130 teams, because it was done before any covid opt outs). So, they should be very tough to stop and will be a good test for our defense.
On defense, their secondary is very good but they are weaker than FSU up front. UCF has a good but not great defensive line, but average linebackers. No real weak link on the team, which is why they are ranked, but their defense is worse than their offense, and the linebackers are probably their worst unit. That may mean we try to attack them with delay handoffs, screen passes, play action, and similar plays designed to stress the linebackers speed and ability to read keys. Wildcat option runs with Sims might work as well.
I'm looking for us to hopefully sustain drives, eat clock, shorten the game in terms of possessions, and try to manufacture a couple extra stops with a big sack or a turnover. If the game has 10 possessions (equal to last week but lower than average), I would expect UCF to score maybe 4 or 5 TDs. Something like 38-31 or 35-28 is the most likely outcome in my opinion, with UCF winning. We need the offense to execute well all day and for Sims to continue making plays if we want to pull the upset.
Given that our offensive line looked OK against what is supposed to be a great D-line, I'm excited to see how we can do against a D line that isn't quite that good (although UCF is still pretty good there). Establishing a consistent rushing attack would obviously help, and we've got several very talented running backs to help with that effort.
I'm curious and optimistic, but trying to remind myself we are still rebuilding, we are still young, and UCF is a good team. I think we can win, but I know we are not supposed to...
As always, let's go Jackets!
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