During the bye week, I had plenty of time to reflect on the season. The first thing I thought about is how I have picked us to win all 8 games so far this year. Not real good when your team is 5-3 and has two losses by at least 14 points. Makes you feel like a complete homer.
That revelation caused me to take a close look at my objectivity. To be fair, we were favored in two of the three games we lost. we clearly should have beaten Kansas. The Sagarin ratings currently have us 17 points better than Kansas on a neutral field. Furthermore, the N.C. State pick was reasonable. Our offensive line looked good against UNC, but that was basically the last time they have looked good. How was I supposed to know? I do think my review after the game, whereby I pointed out that State’s defense line is something less than stellar, was pretty accurate. We probably should have scored more than 7 points in the first half against their defense. Lastly, the Clemson pick wouldn’t have looked nearly as bad if we hadn’t played maybe our worst game, in terms of execution of all three units, in the Paul Johnson Era. All of those unforced errors cost us a lot of points. Really it could have been even worse than 27-13.
Nevertheless, 5-3 is 5-3, and when you are 3 games off in your picks, out of only 8 games total, AND two were basically complete gimmes, it is worrisome.
So I have given a lot of thought to this week’s pick. Virginia Tech has looked good all year except for one game (James Madison). And I feel that game is pretty explainable. It was four and a half days after they suffered an enormous let down. Their potential national title run was (probably) shot before it got off the ground, and they did not recover. They probably also thought there was no way they could lose to JMU.
But, with that said, their best game of the season was a loss (Boise St.). Their second best game was a win over N.C. State that was greatly aided by turnovers and special teams, and that they stole at the end. Of their six wins, all should have been pretty easy wins. Then again, you can say the same thing about us, that we have had 5 easy wins on the schedule so far this year, and, well, we only won 4 of them (oops…). So winning the games you are supposed to win isn’t a bad thing.
So how good is VT really? Well, they are the opposite of the usual VT teams. Their offense is their better unit. That’s good for two reasons. One, they still have a very poor offensive coordinator. And two, their offensive line is not great. Both of those things mean they can be stopped. However, they have some real playmakers, most notably Taylor, Williams and Wilson. (still not sold on Evans really being that good). Taylor especially has really improved. He is top 5 in the country in passing efficiency, and still is crazy good at making plays with his feet. I would be really surprised if he did not have a couple of backbreaking scrambles to extend drives.
But, BUT, there is hope. Our biggest weakness is our D line. So, just like last game, since we are not up against a great O line, we should have a chance to compete. (don’t laugh, we did compete with Clemson defensively. They had good field position most of the game and only scored 27. That’s not exactly overwhelming). If we can have a little bit of success on the line, we can get some stops. But I do expect them to score no fewer than 24-28, and possibly more.
What about the defense? Surprisingly, Bud Foster’s unit has not been that good. They are currently 33rd in total defense, 29th in scoring defense, 45th in rushing and 44th in passing. But here is some information that I think is more useful:
| Team | Rush YPG - Season | Rush v VT | Rush y/p - Season | Rush y/p v. VT | Pass YPG - Season | Pass v VT | Pass y/p - Season | Pass y/p v. VT |
| Boise | 214.3 | 168 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 301.6 | 215 | 10.3 | 7 |
| JMU | 167.5 | 114 | 4 | 2.8 | 149.4 | 121 | 7.4 | 15.1 |
| ECU | 118.5 | 110 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 304.1 | 251 | 6.5 | 5.7 |
| BC | 110.5 | 70 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 184.9 | 180 | 6.2 | 5.1 |
| NCS | 142.9 | 145 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 295.8 | 362 | 7.1 | 7.4 |
| CMU | 114.7 | 135 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 265.8 | 266 | 7 | 5.5 |
| Wake | 180.4 | 254 | 4.6 | 10.2 | 150.8 | 92 | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| Duke | 120.6 | 92 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 261.6 | 116 | 6.5 | 3.2 |
| Avg. | 146.175 | 136 | 4.0875 | 4.525 | 239.25 | 200.37 | 7.0875 | 6.8 |
You can see that on the season, VT has allowed 0.5 more yards per rush to their opponents than those opponents have averaged on the rest of the season. That is not VT defense. Their pass defense is allowing less than their opponents season average, but not that much less.
Additionally, notice that Boise, JMU, ECU and CMU all play in conferences where their usual opponents should be much worse than VT’s defense. So “holding” them below their season averages really is not impressive. Amazingly, VT did not even hold Central Michigan below their season average (what??). Among teams who play good defenses regularly, VT only held Boston College and Duke below their season averages.
Perhaps most significantly, VT allowed Wake Forest to run for significantly more yards and yards per play than their average. This is significant because Wake Forest, like us, does not have much of a passing attack. So VT probably expected a run on most plays, and still could not stop it.
VT still has Foster coaching the defense, so it is probably safe to assume the problem is not coaching. That leaves inexperience, or the same problem as us, a lack of athletes up front. Or it could be a combination of both. Either way, we should be able to take advantage and have some success blocking them.
Maybe the most important factor for predicting this game is the effect of they bye weeks. Both teams are coming off of byes. If you listen to GT’s detractors, we have no chance, because our offense loses its advantage if the defense has more time than one week. But we did beat UGA in 2008 and UNC this year off of bye weeks, so I don’t “bye” that. Ha. Get it? Ha ha. Ok. Nevermind. My apologies.
Seriously though, the bye will probably help VT some. But if we can block them, I think we can move the ball. Hopefully we can block them.
What effect might the bye have on us? Well, in 2008 off our bye we played probably our best game of the season, at home against Miami. Then in 2009, off our bye, we lost to UGA. Its hard to put 2009 UGA on the bye week, because they pushed us around so much and offensively we actually looked pretty good (yeah, 3 points in the first half, Nesbitt only played 2 possessions, one as the time was running out. And we “only” scored 24, but that was on 9 possessions for the GAME because both teams ran so well the game was shortened… Don’t get me started).
So I would say its more likely that we are likely to come out of the bye week playing well, at least offensively. In 2008 we were similarly up and down (albeit perhaps a little more “up”) with a young team, and they really started to click with the extra time. You get a little more practice, and you get to spend more time focusing on cleaning up mistakes than you get in an ordinary week when you want to spend most of your time studying the opponent. So hopefully we will be a little sharper, and come out playing really well. In fact, I am confident we will.
Given all of the above, I have decided we will play a good game tomorrow night. Probably our best of the season. But VT is one of the best, if not the best, team we have played so far. According to Sagarin they ARE the best team we have played so far. And we are on the road. In Lane Stadium. And VT is very good there, especially at night.
I think, unfortunately, that all that adds up to a close loss. We will be competitive, we will fight, we will have a chance. But in the end, VT is better (this season) at making the key plays to win. Special teams will probably hurt us somehow. I just think VT finds a way to get it done. But it will be close.
Fortunately for us GT fans, they will still go play the game, and I am not always right. Wrong 3 times out of 8 so far in fact. But that’s what I think will happen. Here is to me falling to 5-4 on the season.
Per usual, here is a look at the “talent”, as judged by espn.com’s recruiting rankings.
| | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | GT | VT | | GT | VT | | GT | VT | | GT | VT |
| Best | 81 | 84 | | 80 | 83 | | 80 | 83 | | 80 | 81 |
| Top 5 | 79.4 | 79.6 | | 78 | 80 | | 79.4 | 80.6 | | 79 | 79.4 |
| Top 10 | 78.5 | 78.1 | | 77.3 | 79.2 | | 78.8 | 79.5 | | 78.2 | 78.1 |
| Avg. | 75.65 | 75.47 | | 76.53 | 76.56 | | 76.85 | 77.9 | | 77.06 | 76.7 |
| Total Players | 20 | 17 | | 15 | 25 | | 21 | 19 | | 16 | 19 |
Virginia Tech pretty reliably brings in one or two highly rated guys, and from there, their classes compare pretty favorably to ours. In fact, we arguably are better beyond the top 1 or 2. But overall, I would give VT a very slight edge.
| | GT | Virginia Tech |
| Rush Yards Per Game | 317.4 | 214.8 |
| Rush Yards Per Carry | 5.68 | 5.25 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 162.25 | 136 |
| Rush Yards Allowed/Carry | 4.33 | 4.40 |
| Pass Yards Per Game | 84.8 | 209.9 |
| Pass Yards Per Att. | 6.45 | 9.88 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 192 | 200.38 |
| Pass Yards Allowed/Att. | 6.48 | 5.89 |
| Yards Per Play | 5.8 | 6.6 |
| Yards Per Play Allowed | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| Points Per Game | 29.5 | 37 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 23.6 | 20 |
You can see that VT wins by an average of 17, as opposed to only 6 for GT. They have a balanced offense, but will surely challenge our pass defense because they are so efficient. They average 9.88 yards per attempt, which is very good. They basically have an advantage in most every statistical category. (surprisingly, shocking in fact, we have a slight edge in yards per RUSH allowed…)
But that should not be surprising, they have been, to this point in the season, clearly better than us. We will need to play much better that we have so far to compete in this game. But I do think we will do that.
My goals for the game: Once again, simply win. Play a good game in terms of execution, and win.
As always, Let’s Go Jackets!
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