Week 11 Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

This week:

Good week on free money. UVA hurt me with a bunch of turnovers, but they gained over 600 yards and pretty clearly SHOULD have won. And I was so incredibly right about BC and South Carolina. But I don’t mean to brag. Wait a minute, what am I saying, yes I do… 2 for 3.

Good week on solid bets also, save for Baylor. Not sure what happened there, but GT, LSU and UNC all won bets for me. So 3 for 4. I’ll take that.

Tossups continue to be true tossups, as I went 2 for 4. Miami and N.C. St. lost, but Stanford and TCU won bets for me.

So far on the season:

Free Money	16 for 33
Solid Bets	17 for 40
Toss Ups	16 for 30
Total	49 for 103

Slowly getting my numbers back up…

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

Boston College beats Duke by more than 3.5. Bad matchup for Duke. BC’s defense will shut them down. Most teams play BC well bc they can defend BC’s bad offense, but I think Duke’s D is so bad that BC will score pretty easily (as most everyone else does on Duke). No one scores easily on BC.

Alabama favored by 13.5 at home against Miss. St. Something I am missing? Is Bama better than I think? Is Miss. St. not really a top 25 team? I would say these two are shockingly about even, with Bama having a slight edge. So take Miss. St. to win this bet. I guess we’ll see what happens.

Solid Bets:

Florida Carolina is very tricky. Florida is favored by 6.5 at home. I do not think they will cover that, but they can’t lose. The chicken curse won’t allow it. In fact, you should take all your money, go to Vegas and put it on the money line for florida (money line is just a bet on who wins, not the spread…). If USC wins, and you lose all your money, it won’t matter because the chicken curse backlash will destroy the universe. So you won’t need the money anyway. However, I think the lame flops actually cover this, so I am betting on them to hit the middle of that 6.5 window where they lose the game but win the bet. In true lame flop fashion, they frustrate their fans and most gamblers…

Maryland favored by 1.5 at Virginia. Take Maryland. They are actually pretty solid this year. UVA is coming on, but I don’t think they are there yet.

I think UNC actually wins at home, so take the Heels +3.5 against VT. The coastal division has to come down to the last weekend right? So I feel like VT basically has to lose…

N.C. St. over Wake Forest by more than 18.5. Wake is deceptively bad this year. I know most ACC fans have probably become trained not to underestimate Wake, but don’t worry about it this year. They are bad.

Clemson is a 6.5 point underdog at FSU. Clemson’s defense is too good. Take the tigers. I’m not sure if they win, but I think they at least cover.

Toss-Ups:

Miami favored by 2.5 at GT. As I stated in my preview of the game, take the Jackets to win, but this is a tossup.

Sadly, the Nesbitt jokes have been retired, with the premature retirement of the great Nesbitt himself. Man I loved watching him play…