Week 11 Preview - Miami

This week we have one more of the many very difficult to predict ACC games. Georgia Tech and Miami both fit comfortably into the group of 6 or 7 ACC teams that I believe are good enough on a given week to play like a top 25 team. But, like all other ACC teams, whether or not they will do it on a given week is anyone’s guess, and certainly is not likely to happen twice in a row. Miami may in fact be much better than just top 25. Its possible they are capable of being a top 10 or even a top 5 team. When I watch them play, and/or look at their recruiting, I can’t help but think if they play motivated and play well for 4 quarters, they could beat any team in the country.

The kind of talent, speed and athleticism Miami has makes them a scary team to play. But then you watch them play Virginia and Maryland the last two weeks and it makes you think “huh?”. What just happened?

Well, statistically Miami beat both of those teams pretty soundly. They just killed themselves with turnovers and penalties. One would think, if they had executed well, they would have won each game handily.

Georgia Tech fans can relate. Paul Johnson said after the N.C. State game that he counted more than 40 busted assignments on offense AND defense. Over 80 total for the game. That is a good way to lose a winnable game. And of course we roughed the punter, picked up a key late hit, dropped a touchdown pass, and make a bunch of other mental mistakes at Clemson. At Kansas there were plenty of busted assignments, and some silly attempts at making tackles. Virginia Tech was the only game we lost where we can’t directly point to a bunch of unforced errors that really hurt us, and might in fact have turned a win into a loss. We executed pretty well at VT, with a few exceptions (the goalline INT, the late kickoff return). But we had an excellent chance to win that game if we don’t have to spend 3 or 4 possessions getting Tevin Washington into the flow of the game. I know I am beating a dead horse, but I still have to assume if Nesbitt doesn’t get hurt we win that game.

Miami has a long list of similar complaints. With the exception of FSU, Miami looked as though they had a good chance to win every game they played this year (yes even Ohio St.), if they didn’t pile up so many turnovers and other errors that appeared to be largely unforced. The easy thing to blame is a lack of motivation for certain games, but then again, the only game they didn’t compete in was FSU, which is the one game you would think motivation would not be a problem. I think they just like to be unpredictable.

As if this game needs any more help being difficult to predict, there are two new starting QB’s. I believe Jacory Harris is making the trip, but Stephen Morris is supposed to play. Obviously, we will be playing Tevin Washington, who will be making his first start ever. Morris at least has one game under his belt. Both look talented and promising, but you never know how young QB’s will play from game to game.

GT at least appears to be getting better as the season goes on in terms of execution. Miami has been consistently inconsistent. Their best games of the year so far are probably Pitt and UNC, followed up by Clemson. Clemson and Pitt followed Ohio St., one of their most poorly executed games of the year. After Clemson, they laid the egg against FSU and went sleepwalking through Durham, before soundly beating a pretty decent UNC team. If you are counting, that’s twice this year they faceplanted (Ohio St. and FSU) only to recover, but neither time could they stay on track. Most recently they melted down with a silly loss at UVA, and then a nerveracking closer than it should have been win at home over Maryland, during which they somehow managed to gain about twice as many yards as they gave up. Yet they still had to score a late TD to come from behind for the win.

At least this much is clear. For GT, if our O line does not get soundly out played, and we do not bust a bunch of assignments, we have a pretty good offense. And if our defensive front does not get soundly outplayed, we have a pretty good defense. Those are always the two big Ifs. As for Miami, if they don’t throw a bunch of interceptions, they are very hard to beat.

The key matchup when we have the ball, in my opinion, is our O line against their D line. They are very good up front. Probably the second best D line we will play all year. UNC would be better if they had all their players, but I think probably only Clemson’s defensive front is better than Miami’s, and that’s debatable. They are big and fast. Our offensive line has looked better the last few weeks. Well, except for the Clemson game, which tends to indicate maybe we only look better because we are playing bad defensive fronts. Virginia Tech certainly is not as good up front as usual.

If our O line can roughly play their D line even, I think we have a chance to score a lot of points. Miami, in my opinion, does not play the smartest, most disciplined football, and that makes them vulnerable to giving up lots of big plays to our offense. They probably would have given up a handful even last year, when our O line couldn’t seem to block them at all, if we had hit a few decent blocks on the corners. For some reason that game, our A backs and Receivers seemed to think we were playing freeze tag, and consequently their LB’s and DB’s spend most the game in our backfield stopping any play that might go wide.

Miami has a lot of speed, but we can use that against them. I would expect to see us use some counter plays, like the counter option or the WR screen thrown behind the motioning A back, to hit some good gains when they overpursue and to slow down that pursuit on future plays. But that will all depend on their defensive game plan. If they are pursuing aggressively, we’ll run counters. If they are reading and reacting, we’ll run more of our base plays. I’m pretty confident in CPJ to put us in the best situations to make plays. Of course, if Miami ends up being too big and too fast for us, there isn’t much CPJ can do.

When they have the ball, we need to play well against the run. Our defense has played pretty well the last few weeks in that regard, except of course against Clemson. Once again, Clemson is probably the best O line we have played in that span, so maybe we aren’t improving so much as we are just playing bad rushing teams. We did a pretty good job slowing down VT, and they are a good running attack, but I don’t know how good they are up front. They rely mostly on their running backs, and Tyrod, making plays.

Miami’s O line may be pretty good, but it has not looked overwhelming. If we can compete up front, and slow down the run, we have a chance to have a pretty good game defensively. Our pass defense on the year has actually been pretty good, and I think we have enough playmakers in the secondary to get a few picks if they have to rely on the pass.

As a disclaimer, that depends on Miami playing a relatively normal game. If they play really well, they have the talent at QB and wide receiver to gash just about any defense through the air. But if we can slow the run enough that we force them to pass a lot, and force them into obvious passing situations, I have faith in Groh’s ability to disguise blitzes and coverages well enough to bother their young QB.

With Miami’s speed and athleticism, they have a pretty clear special teams edge. I would definitely take a game where there are really no big plays in the kicking game, because if there are any I expect them to go Miami’s way.

So, my prediction? Drumroll…

I’m taking the home team. There are few things I hate worse than picking us to lose and being right (like last week), so I am not making that mistake again.

I think we play a good game, in terms of execution. I think we have the motivational edge, given how the game went last year. And I think both of our coaches, Johnson and Groh, will out adjust them at halftime. I expect them to come out playing fast, and take an early lead. But at home, I don’t think we are going to go away. I think we’ll be scrappy and keep fighting, and I think we win a close game in the end.

Of course, no result here would be much of a surprise. Maybe a GT blowout would, maybe. But anything from a relatively easy GT win to Miami winning by 55 points would be interesting, but probably not terribly shocking to any ACC fan.

Lets take a look at the numbers (FAMU and SC St. are not included in these charts because the site I use does not keep stats on FCS teams, and really, who cares?):

We will start with Miami’s offense. Below are their game by game offensive numbers. “Diff from avg” is how much better or worse they did than their opponent has averaged allowing on the season. YPP = yards per pass, and YPR = yards per rush.

	Total	Diff. from Avg	Pass	Diff. from Avg	Rush	Diff. from Avg	YPP	Diff. from Avg	YPR	Diff. from Avg
OSU	352	118	232	82	120	36	5.9	0.3	4.3	1.6
Pitt	348	49	248	43	100	6	7.8	1.8	2.9	0.1
Clemson	376	37	205	14	171	23	6.2	0.2	4	0.2
FSU	424	91	235	8	189	83	4.8	-1.8	5.3	0.1
Duke	448	-9	224	-34	224	24	6.6	-2.2	5.3	0.5
UNC	442	98	217	19	225	79	6.8	0.6	5.1	1
UVA	448	51	269	82	179	31	6.4	0.8	6.2	1
Maryland	504	163	286	81	218	82	9.5	3.3	4.4	1.1
	417.75	74.75	239.5	36.875	178.25	45.5	6.75	0.375	4.6875	0.7

You can see they have a good and balanced offense. They gain about 75 yards more than their opponents give up on average. 36 more passing and 45 more rushing. They have been more consistent on the ground, having gained more yards per rush than their opponent normally allows every single game. So they will test our not exactly stellar run defense.

Miami’s defense:

	Total	Diff. from Avg	Pass	Diff. from Avg	Rush	Diff. from Avg	YPP	Diff. from Avg	YPR	Diff. from Avg
OSU	414	-41	233	-11	181	-21	8.3	-0.4	3.7	-1.3
Pitt	232	-137	104	-108	128	-28	4.3	-3.2	3.6	-0.9
Clemson	311	-22	149	-33	162	11	4.5	-1.7	4.1	-0.1
FSU	471	61	173	-41	298	101	8.2	-1	7.3	1.9
Duke	292	-102	187	-74	105	-27	4.3	-2.4	2.6	-1.2
UNC	289	-93	140	-118	149	25	6.7	-1.8	5.1	1.5
UVA	361	-57	176	-88	185	31	6.5	-1	4	-0.2
Maryland	254	-62	158	-24	96	-38	5.3	-1.3	3.8	-0.2
	328	-57	165	-62	163	6.75	6.01	-1.6	4.275	-0.1

This is actually encouraging. Their pass defense is stellar (#1 in the country in pass efficiency defense in fact) but their run defense is somewhat average. They actually allow 6 yards more per game than their opponents average, and they allow about the same yards per play as their opponents average. If we roughly match our season averages in those two categories, I expect we will win the game.

Here is a look at our offense. I have not included in this graph the total yards passing and rushing. We all know our rushing numbers are much higher than any team allows on average, and our passing is much less. Showing those here would just be misleading. I have included the total yards and the average per play numbers because those are still helpful.

	Total	Diff. from Avg	YPP	Diff. from Avg	YPR	Diff. from Avg
Kansas	407	-9	7.7	-0.2	5.6	0.5
UNC	448	104	19	12.8	5.9	1.8
NC ST	363	20	6.4	-0.5	5.1	1.1
Wake	339	-97	6.2	-1.3	4.4	-0.4
UVA	536	139	9.8	2.6	6.4	1.2
MTSU	415	28	6.1	-0.5	5.8	1.7
Clemson	325	-14	4.2	-2	4.9	1.1
VT	426	80	8	2	6.8	2
	407.375	31.375	8.425	1.6125	5.6125	1.125

Pretty good numbers from our offense. We average about 30 yards more per play than our opponents give up on average, and we gain over a yard more per play in both rushing and passing than our opponents give up. Those are pretty big per play averages, but they probably come from our inconsistency. When we are clicking we hit a lot of big plays. When we are not we bog down. Last year we averaged less per play but had a better offense, because we were more consistent. If you hit a 30 yard run then go 3 and out, you have averaged 7.5 yards per play for that drive, but you are still punting. Anyway, this does I think show that our offense is capable of being very good if we execute.

GT’s defense:

	Total	Diff. from Avg	Pass	Diff. from Avg	Rush	Diff. from Avg	YPP	Diff. from Avg	YPR	Diff. from Avg
Kansas	320	-18	179	-11	141	-7	3.4	-2.6	6	2.4
UNC	352	-30	209	-49	143	19	8.4	-0.1	4.5	0.9
NC ST	527	107	368	82	159	-25	9	2	4	-0.4
Wake	268	-58	107	-51	161	-7	4.7	-1.2	3.7	-0.7
UVA	376	-42	239	-25	137	-17	7.7	0.2	4.9	0.7
MTSU	316	-69	173	-33	143	-36	4.9	-1.4	3.7	-0.6
Clemson	403	70	167	-15	236	85	6.2	0	6.2	2
VT	335	-80	137	-64	198	-15	5.5	-2.9	5	-0.2
	362.1	-15	197.37	-21	164.75	-0.4	6.2	-0.8	4.75	0.51

You can see pretty clearly that our pass defense is better than our run defense. Miami has talent everywhere, and running back is no exception. They have excellent speed and playmakers in the backfield, so our run defense will need to play well.

As always, here is a look at the talent, as shown by espn.com’s recruiting numbers:

	2007			2008			2009			2010
	GT	UM		GT	UM		GT	UM		GT	UM
Best	81	84		80	90		80	84		80	86
Top 5	79.4	81		78	84.4		79.4	82.4		79	82
Top 10	78.5	79.9		77.3	83		78.8	81.1		78.2	80.7
Avg.	75.65	77.69		76.53	79.17		76.85	79		77.06	78.37
Total Players	20	16		15	29		21	18		16	27

Here is why I am a little scared of Miami. This is a pretty significant edge. Maybe not as big as some Miami fans would assume, but they are talented. Particularly the outrageous 2008 class. Look at those numbers, and then also note that they have 29 players. To have that many recruits and still have an average that high is really something. Those players are either juniors or redshirt sophomores, and they are special.

The goal for this week is the same as the last two weeks, just win the game. I don’t really care about the stats or trying to accomplish anything else. Miami is a team with tons of potential, so any win here is a good win. Of course, they are the same team that just lost to UVA and was blown out by FSU, so its not like a win is necessarily going to be very difficult. Just depends on which teams show up. Focused GT or mental lapse GT? Smart Miami or dumb Miami?

In any case, should be interesting. Let’s Go Jackets!