Well, clearly I showed up flat this week. Completely unfocused. Not ready to play.
BUT, I did it with the best intentions. I'm hoping to reverse jinx the team. I figure there is only enough room for one of us, me or the team, to be flat in the same week. When the team comes out fired up tonight, you can thank me.
(OK I'm aware that this doesn't really make sense. Had a busy week. What can I say...)
Anyway, here is the 2 minute version of the preview.
Middle Tennessee is not a bad team. The majority of fans, in my opinion, underrate them. In recent years, they have beaten Minnesota (on the road), Maryland (I think both home and away), and played a somewhat competitive game at Clemson before eventually losing by a couple touchdowns. Additionally, they very nearly beat Purdue at Purdue last week, up by 4 with 1 minute left.
Of course, that begs the question, how good is Purdue? My guess is probably not very good. But they are still a BCS conference team, and they were playing at home.
Thus, the Blue Raiders are a decent team, and they are well coached. Moreover, this is a home game, and they are having some sort of 100th year anniversary (I think) celebration based around this game. I believe we were intentionally scheduled as the "big name" opponent for the big weekend.
All that is just to say, they are going to come out flying. This is maybe the biggest game any of these MTSU players will play in college. This is almost certainly their biggest home game. The home fans will be electric. Its only 30,000 seats, but any stadium can be intimidating and can influence the game when its completely packed and the fans are going crazy. Its not always about sheer numbers. 30,000 in a 30,000 seat stadium is probably more of a home field advantage than 65,000 in a 90,000 seat stadium. Open space and empty seats detract from crowd noise. There won't be much of either tonight, I don't think.
In general, I always worry about games against legitimate lower conference opponents. They always have a situational advantage, because they are playing one of their toughest opponents of the year, while the other team is playing one of its weakest. When its Western Carolina, no motivational edge tends to matter that much. But when the "easy" team is actually somewhat decent, you can get upset if you aren't careful.
When you are playing on the road, its just that much worse.
When there are extenuating circumstances that make them even more jacked up than they would be otherwise... well, I'm worried.
If we come out focused, ready to play, and play up to our capability, we should be ok. They are good enough to keep it close for a while, but it should be a comfortable 14-20 point win (or more) in the end. If we do that.
If we come out a little relaxed, thinking we'll probably win, we could get smacked in the mouth right away and end up in a dogfight that we might well lose.
From what I have been reading all offseason, and so far during this season, this young team has a much better attitude and work ethic than last year. Coach Paul Johnson said that Wednesday's practice was very good, high energy, and he thinks we will be ready to play.
I hope he is right. If he is, I think we'll be fine.
I'll predict that he is right. MTSU plays well, especially early, but we win by 21, and thus cover the 11.5 spread.
Here are this week's picks:
Free Money (best picks)
Virginia Tech will beat East Carolina by more than 19.5
Alabama beats Penn St. by more than 9.5
Stanford beats Duke by way more than 21.5
Solid Bets (Good picks)
Miss. St. will beat Auburn by more than 7.
N.C. State beats Wake by more than 2.5
Georgia beats South Carolina outright in my upset special, so they definitely cover + 2.5
Georgia Tech covers by more than 11.5.
Boston College loses by less than 6.5 at Central Florida
Tossups
UNC will beat Rutgers by more than 10.5
Virginia beats Indiana by more than 6.5
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