Week 4 - UNC Preview

Here it is. The first real test.

UNC is the first complete team we have played, and the first team with any kind of a defense. Our offensive numbers to this point have been fun, but I highly doubt we come anywhere near our season averages against this defense. They are big, fast, and very talented. I don’t think they are particularly well coached, but mediocre coaching and that talent equals a good defense.

How good?

Well, they are holding opponents to about 310 yards per game, only 77 rushing yards, 2.35 yards per carry, 4.6 yards per play, and 16.3 points per game.

Those numbers are all quite good.

But, their defensive numbers are somewhat like our offensive numbers - they’ve been compiled against a schedule of questionable ability on the other side of the ball.

Their first game was James Madison, an FCS team.

Their second game was Rutgers. Rutgers has been good in the recent past, but they were not very good last year, finishing #90 in Sagarin’s poll. They are at #64 so far for this season. Perhaps more important to this analysis though, is that their offense is suspect. They have only played one other game this year besides UNC, and that was against NC Central. Against that defensive juggernaut, they managed only 347 yards, and 4.6 yards per play.

That makes the 244 yards and 3.4 yards per play that UNC held Rutgers to a little less impressive.

So, basically, UNC padded its stats against James Madison and a bad Rutgers offense.

UNC’s other game was against UVA. UVA is supposed to be improved this year, but its hard to imagine they are real good given how bad they were last year. Against UVA, UNC conceded 170 rushing yards (5.0 yards per carry), and 468 total yards. They did force 3 turnovers, without which they almost certainly would have given up more than 17 points.

For comparison’s sake, UVA gained 496 yards against William and Mary, and only 360 against Indiana. Their 6.2 yards per play against UNC was UVA’s highest yards per play of the season.

So, in short, we have a GT offense that has looked unbelievable against very bad competition, versus a UNC defense that has looked very good against very bad competition, and very mediocre against the one decent (maybe worse) team it played.

Hard to tell much about that matchup. At least from the stats.

UNC’s front 7 is very, very talented. They have a 3 players currently projected to go in the first 18 picks of next year’s NFL draft (I believe a both defensive ends and a linebacker, but it might be a defensive tackle instead of one of the ends). Defensive end Quinton Coples is supposed to be the best, but all 3 are very good.

Their size and speed will be an excellent challenge for our blockers. To this point in the year, we have been blocking MUCH better than last year. If we can keep that up this game, I think we can confidently say our blocking is in fact better this year, and it has not just been the result of playing bad teams.

The thing that I am most curious to see is what Paul Johnson can do with his complete offense. I believe we are finally there. And I don’t just mean the QB. Washington is probably more a natural fit as an option QB than Nesbitt was, and he has had more time in the system. Both of those things help. But it also helps to have an offensive line that was recruited for this scheme, that is quick and can get downfield to make blocks. It also helps to have A-Backs and WR’s with another year in the system. I think, moreso than the past 3 years, we are now on the same page offensively at all positions, and this offense more or less knows everything CPJ wants them to know.

So, now that we are not limited by using only half the playbook (year 1) or not having a complete understanding of the offense (years 1-3, to different degrees), what kind of adjustments can CPJ make if we start to bog down?

Of course, that assumes we will actually bog down. I guess its conceivable that we will light up UNC for 500+ (600+??) yards and a bunch of points.

But, more than likely, they will slow us down at some point. What can we do after that?

To this point I have focused on the matchup of our offense against their defense. And for good reason. I believe that is where the game will be won or lost.

UNC has a good offense, probably. Their offensive line is supposed to be the best its been in years. Renner has looked pretty good. They have a new, faster running back.

But, they still have Shoop (same old offensive coordinator). First, Groh owns this guy. Second, he isnt all that good against anyone else. In 2008, he managed to have the 92nd best offense in the country with the WR corps of Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Tate and Brooks Foster.

Now, we don’t have a great defense. I do think we are improved. But not great. Groh will out-scheme and out-adjust Shoop. I bet UNC’s talent and passing game will do enough to score somewhere around 20-24. Maybe if we give them some turnover help it will be worse. If they turn the ball over to us, it could be less. But I feel like its a pretty safe bet that they won’t score a ton, and an equally safe bet that we won’t shut them out.

The big question mark is our offense against their defense. We have shown that big, athletic front lines can shut us down. And we have also shown that when we are clicking we can score almost at will.

Special teams is always a threat to cause a disaster for us, but there is no particular reason to think UNC will hurt us there. We have looked stable there so far this year. Again, that was against terrible opposition, but I am still hopeful that we are good across the board in special teams, for a change.

I’ll predict that our offense proves to be significantly better than last year, our blocking and execution are better, and we have a more complete understanding of the offense. And I’ll predict that UNC, while being very talented, is in fact not all that well coached, and thus their defense will not have that much success stopping us.

I think we will be pleasantly surprised this weekend.

I’ll call it GT - 42, UNC 24, with a garbage time score for UNC. So, after a few drives, it won’t be all that close.

A surprising pick to be sure.

I could easily see UNC winning, or a close game that could go either way, but I think this is a different GT team, with a different attitude. I think Johnson and Groh both have good schemes, both coach them well, and both are good at making adjustments.

Basically, I think we are going to start seeing GT be an efficient team, year in and year out, that is well coached and very difficult to beat, so long as this coaching staff is in place.

Let’s go Jackets!