And, finally, it is almost time for the unofficial Coastal division Championship.
Every single year that the Coastal division has existed, the winner of the GT-VT has represented the Coastal in the ACC Championship Game.
In fact, most years, the loser of the this game would have won the Coastal had they won the game.
So really, it basically is the Coastal division Champ game.
And don’t look now, but it will probably decide the Coastal again this year.
If VT wins and beats UVA later in the year, they win the Coastal.
If GT wins, beats Duke, and UVA loses once more, GT wins the Coastal.
Technically, UVA still controls its own destiny, but they have to play at FSU and VT still, and I do not think they will win out.
So, in my opinion, this is it, although there will be a few loose ends to tie up after this game.
Both teams are coming off a bye. If you buy into conventional wisdom, you might think that would be disastrous for GT. Teams with a bye week always beat us right?
Well, see my post below. Or don’t, and just take my word for it. The bye week is not that big of a deal.
Virginia Tech may well beat us, but it will be because they are a good team, not because they are off a bye week. (They were off a bye week last year, and we came out blazing, scoring 14 1st quarter points and getting to their 5 yard line in the 2nd quarter before Nesbitt threw a pick and then got injured...)
They are making a number of changes to their defense, many of which have been necessitated by injury.
I have not followed VT and their personnel as well I should have. So I do not know all of the names. But they have injuries to several defensive linemen and linebackers. (where have we heard this before? Hmm... NC State.. Miami... forgive me for not getting real excited).
A couple of things make these injuries not a huge deal. First, the replacements are guys with some experience at those positions (at least if “MaroonBird” from the scout boards is to be trusted... that poster has a detailed description over on the Hive message board, detailing who is moving where and how much they have played there).
Second, Bud Foster is a very good coach, and he consistently gets their defense to perform well regardless of who is playing where, or who they lost from last year, etc.
Third, most of the changes are designed to get more speed on the field. I think Bud Foster is a great defensive coordinator, and I expect he has picked up on the fact that undersized but quick defenses can give us problems. Wake Forest in both 2009 and 2010, NC State in 2010, Maryland and Miami in 2011, etc. These defenses were all relatively small but fast, and in some cases (Miami) they had injuries and replaced some guys with smaller faster players. For example they moved Sean Spence, their extremely fast linebacker who may play safety in the NFL, over to middle linebacker, which typically is played by a bigger, slower player.
The reason undersized speed guys are better suited to defend us is simple. We are not terribly big, and we don’t overpower teams. So, big strong guys are not necessary against us. What you need are guys that avoid cut blocks, and pursue the ball quickly.
Of course, if you have fast guys, it won’t hurt if they are also big and strong. See: Iowa, LSU, some of the Clemson and Miami teams we have faced, etc.
But, the point is you don’t need big and strong. That is why Wake in 2010 had so much success against us even though they could not stop anybody else (yes we eventually won but our offense struggled mightily for 3 quarters).
So, VT will be undersized Thursday night, but I expect a very good effort from them defensively.
If they play us how Bud Foster typically plays us, they will allow us to get some yards, but they do a good job limiting the points.
Here is a look at the past 3 years, their defense against our offense.
| Year | GT Average Yards Per Game | GT Yards Against VT | GT Average Points Per Game | GT Points Against VT |
| 2008 | 372.5 | 387 | 24.4 | 17 |
| 2009 | 422.1 | 360 | 33.8 | 28 |
| 2010 | 407.2 | 426 | 26.0 | 21 |
So you can see, for the most part, we get our yards against VT but they hold us below our season average.
On the whole though, the game is always very close.
I expect it to be no different this year.
It will be close. Both teams are good teams. Both have had bye weeks to get focused and motivated. Nobody will be tired or flat. Both teams should give a good effort.
I think we win for 2 main reasons. 1 - we are at home. 2 - we are a more complete team.
#2 is only true if we are playing well on special teams and not shooting ourselves in the foot.
That is basically what VT does. They area always good on defense. They play well on special teams, they make few mistakes, and they do enough on offense to get the job done.
This year, actually, VT has not been so good on special teams. But that is generally their M.O.
The main reason I call us a more complete team is that we have a good offense. VT has a collection of some pretty good players on offense, but it is not a good offense. Their coaching and scheme leaves a little to be desired.
Last year, GT had a worse defense and VT had a better offense than this year, and still Groh managed to engineer a gameplan to largely shut down Stinespring (VT’s offensive coordinator).
Logan Thomas and David Wilson are good players. Especially David Wilson. He may be the best individual player we play against all year. (for those that do not know, he is VT’s running back, and the player who took the kick back last year to win the game).
He is an all around good running back, but has tremendous speed. I mean tremendous. He is just an athletic freak.
And VT likes to use him between the tackles in what is a decent power running game. Power run defense is our weakness, so I expect him to do some damage. VT hurt us in that area last year, and I expect the same this year. However, I don’t expect much more than 21 or 24 points.
So, that will be the challenge. Can we score 28 or so on offense, and then not give the game away elsewhere?
In 2008, despite a bad offensive performance for much of the day, we were about to get the ball back with 5 minutes left in a tie game, but an untimely personal foul gave VT’s offense new life. We cannot afford mistakes like that Thursday.
In 2010, we had a chance to win at the end, but we allowed a VT kickoff return TD with 2 minutes left to put them ahead 28-21. We cannot afford mistakes like that Thursday.
VT may have a slight talent edge, but only slight, if at all.
We have a clear edge in offensive coaching in my opinion, and we can match their defensive coaching (both are very good). If we can hold our own in special teams and overall mistakes like turnovers and penalties, then I like our chances.
I think we do. I think we play well, and get the win by a touchdown. GT 28, VT 21. Perfectly symmetrical revenge from last year.
Let’s Go Jackets.
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