The Mercer game didn't tell me a whole lot. I already knew we had better athletes than Mercer and should be able to score if we executed. When we didn't turn the ball over, we scored. Not in dominant fashion. But, 5 touchdowns on basically 8 possessions isn't bad. And I already suspected our defense wasn't very good. We played the classic Roof bend but don't break, and we bent plenty. But didn't really break. So, you know, ho hum business as usual. Nothing to get excited about but also doesn't prove we can't win 10 games and play for an ACC championship. As always, two weeks into the season, we don't know a whole lot.
Vanderbilt presents an interesting challenge. They aren't very good. But they aren't terrible either. Something of a lite version of Boston College on both sides of the ball. Their defense is solid, but probably not as big or fast as Boston College. They won't make mistakes, but should be more blockable than BC was. Offensively, so far, they may be hot garbage. They looked ok against MTSU, especially if you focus on their running game. But they scored 49 points in that game with healthy contributions from their defense and special teams. Lots of short fields. They currently sit #127 out of 128 teams in passer rating as a team. Meaning they allegedly can't pass the ball at all. Which is what I saw on opening night when they played South Carolina. That was awful. Solid defense, but atrocious offense.
So far this year, they have run the ball for more than twice as many yards as they have passing. Their quarterback isn't very good. So I'd expect them to try to run, run and run some more. And I would be very surprised if a Roof defense got beat that way. They'll probably have some success but not enough to score many touchdowns. If its UGA and Chubb, or Ohio St. and Ezekiel Elliot, or similar, then sure I could see a team running it down our throat, potentially. But I just don't think Vandy has the horses for that. Either they hurt us passing the ball, or I don't think they score more than 10 or 13 points.
Offensively, we might not score much more than that. Vandy is a solid defense with a few potential NFL players over there. I expect us to move the ball, certainly much better than week 1, but whether that translates to touchdowns... we'll see. I'll believe this team can execute consistently against a quality defense when I see it. Its been over a year since I've seen it. So I'm not making any assumptions.
But my guess is a slow, steady, low scoring game, but one we eventually pull out to win somewhat comfortably. Something like 24-10 or maybe 28-13. Definitely a game we could lose with a timely turnover or just poor execution, but we are the better team, and Vandy doesn't present significant scheme or talent challenges. Just solidly coached, mostly mediocre players. We usually beat that sort of team, especially at home.
As always, Go Jackets!
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