2015 Georgia Tech Season Preview

Well, I’m terrified.  

I know.  I’m supposed to be excited.  Everyone else is excited.  We just won eleven games.  And the orange bowl.  We are ranked preseason.  The Coastal favorites for the first time.  But, let me explain.

First the schedule.  Notre Dame added to the normal UGA non conference slate.  Both Clemson and FSU from the Atlantic.  The usual Coastal wheel of destiny, except Duke isn’t the pushover it used to be, so really any game is losable now.  That is 10 games we realistically could lose.  Several in which we will be underdogs.  We could be as good as last year and still only win 7 or 8 games.  

Second, expectations.  Historically, Georgia Tech hasn’t done real well with expectations.  Usually when we are ranked pre season and expected to do well, we don’t.  1990 (without much expectations) we snuck up on people and won it all.  1991 (with big expectations) we came back to earth.  Same combination for 1998 (not much expectations, conference title and 10 wins) and 1999 (big expectations, 8-4).  I’m not sure what causes this, but in my experience, when GT gets preseason respect, we underwhelm.

And finally, its because this year feels identical to 2010, for me.  We were fresh off an 11 win season and an orange bowl appearance.  We returned our stud quarterback.  Nobody was worried about the pieces we lost on offense because we had Paul Johnson and that stud at quarterback.  Nobody was worried about the defense because it “can’t get any worse”.  Even though the defense, which at times seemed atrocious, was a key part of our success.  Remember in 2009, the defense was thought to be awful.  Everybody remembers the UGA game (and to a lesser extent the FSU game) where it seemed like nobody punted.  In fact, in the UGA game, really, nobody punted.  In 2009, we played 3 games in which we failed to force a punt.  And we won two of them...

So going into 2010, the thought was the Groh might shore up the defense.  But even if he didn’t, who cares?  We will just keep on outscoring people.  Problem is, the defense did more than people realized.  It got key stops against Clemson in the regular season game, especially late.  It played a great game to limit Virginia Tech to just 23 points in our biggest win of the season.  It shut down a North Carolina team whose defense was good enough to hold us to 10 points through three quarters.  Those games easily could have been losses without the defense making crucial, timely plays.  In fact, the 2009 defense, for as much as it was derided, finished ranked 51st in football outsiders efficiency rankings.  That 51st ranking is tied with 2013 and 2014, and higher than 2010, 2011 and 2012.  In other words, we STILL haven’t produced a defense better than that 2009 group (although last year was tied).  

The 2009 defense wasn’t good, but it made timely crucial plays (Clemson, FSU, Wake) and played well in some big games (VT).  Similarly, the 2014 defense wasn’t good, but it made timely crucial plays (VT, Miami, Ga. Southern) and played well in some big games (Clemson, UGA).  

Going into 2010, the thinking was the defense couldn’t get any worse.  Well, it got worse.    This year I’m not sure what the thinking is (from the fan base collectively).  The UGA game tends to define, for a lot of our fans, the status of the team.  Thus, because the defense played pretty well in that game, the collective opinion of the defense might be pretty good.  Unfortunately, based on a lot of metrics the defense was awful.  It finished with a mediocre ranking thanks to turnovers only.  And so the question becomes, was that luck?  Or can we replicate that?  If we can’t, can the defense improve and actually get regular stops?  Or are we going to be horrible on defense next year?

Because that was the formula for a shockingly disappointing 2010 campaign.  Losses on offense that were ignored proved vitally important, and a defense that could actually get worse did get worse, and we went 6-7 and finished with Paul Johnson’s lowest computer ranking at GT (by far).  

So there are plenty of troubling parallels.  Losses on offense (Demaryius Thomas, Jon Dwyer, a couple of O-Linemen - compared to 10 of our top 11 RBs and WRs, and Shaq Mason).  A much maligned defense.  Lofty expectations.  The extremely difficult schedule actually makes this year potentially worse than 2010.

We won’t sneak up on anybody this year.  In fact we are likely circled on the calendar for many teams and will get their best punch.  We have a very vulnerable defense and question marks on offense.  Potentially overrated team and a tough schedule is a bad combination.

So that’s why I’m terrified.

But enough of the bad news.  Despite the loss of Shaq Mason, one of the best if not the best O-linemen in the ACC last year in my opinion, we still have a deep and talented O-Line.  In fact, its the #1 rated O line in the ACC according to Phil Steele.  And of course there is Justin Thomas.  If you have to have question marks on offense, I’d rather they not be at QB and O-line.  And they aren’t.  Justin Thomas is perhaps the best quarterback Paul Johnson has ever had (anywhere, not just GT).  I think he’s just about perfect for this offense.   

The QB and O-line give us a significant edge over 2010.  I know we had Nesbitt in 2010 but I think Thomas is better.  A significantly better passer, better at running the offense (because Thomas is great at that while Nesbitt was only good) and I think actually a better runner.  Nesbitt was obviously a great power runner.  Thomas is a great speed runner.  I think overall Thomas has a slight edge here.  Doesn’t really matter though.  Both are great runners, but the passing and ability to run the offense make Thomas significantly better than Nesbitt in my opinion.  And I don’t say that lightly because I loved Josh and I think he was a great player for us.  Thomas is simply a huge asset.  And in Byerly we have a very good backup.  Bylerly might have started for some other CPJ teams at GT.  Tough break for him that he is playing behind Thomas but hopefully he gets some meaningful snaps in short yardage situations as he did last year.  

As for the defense, its not hopeless.  In fact, I’m intrigued.  Last year we were awful on an every play basis.  Somehow very good in key situations.  Without the two fourth quarter INTs, we certainly lose at VT for example.  Without the overtime INT we probably lose to UGA.  Without a late forced fumble we (gulp) probably would have lost to Ga. Southern.  But it was still a defense that conceded 6.3 yards per play last year.  Within the ACC that was only better than UNC and the 4-3-0 defense it employed last season.  (I expect Gene Chizik to change up that scheme and actually put a secondary on the field this year - still though I imagine UNC fans are excited that East Carolina won’t score 70 on them again this year - as they are not on the schedule).  6.3 yards per play is the most ever allowed by a Paul Johnson team at GT.  Think about that...

But unlike 2010, the defense does not lose its two best players to high draft picks in the NFL from an already questionable unit.  Instead, we return most of our best players . . . from a still questionable unit (as the old joke goes returning a lot of starters can be the bad news).  But there are tangible reasons to think this might be the best D-Line we’ve had in years.  Adam Gotsis returns and is probably our best player.  We get Jabari Hunt Days back from academic suspension.  He was an excellent player for us in 2013, has bulked up and moved to DT, and has been getting rave reviews for over a year in practice.  He is listed in Phil Steele’s top 30 NFL draft prospects (although he’s mistakenly listed at DE where he won’t be playing for us according to our current 2 deep) without having played D-line in college.  So he’s certainly intriguing and could be a huge boost.  Keshun Freeman was excellent as a freshman DE, played a great game against UGA, and if he continues to improve could really be something special.  Rook Chungong and Gamble were solid players last year.  Francis Kallon, long thought to have enormous potential, has finally earned a spot in the two deep (which apparently has allowed Gamble to move to DE where he is probably better suited).  Its a deep and experienced group, with legitimate NFL talent and a number of guys with loads of potential that hasn’t been fully realized yet.  

It is my opinion that the D-Line is the most important part of any defense.  If you are disruptive up front it makes everybody else’s job much easier.  And the D-line could be a real strength of this team.  The linebackers shouldn’t be bad and the secondary has returning talent.  Most notably DJ White, who earned himself a place in every Tech fans heart with the walk off interception against UGA.  I think he’s underrated and should have gotten more preseason hype on the all conference teams.  

Anyway, there is talent on defense and I’m excited about the defensive line.  The offense is almost sure to take a step back from last year.  Actually I don’t think most Tech fan appreciate just how good the offense was last year.  The best offense in the country according to the opponent adjusted efficiency rankings of football outsiders, and actually maybe the best offense of the last decade.  We were real good.  So “taking a step back” from that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  But replacing 10 of our top 11 WRs and RBs, including 2 NFL caliber WRs, means we certainly won’t be as good.  But if we can get reasonable play from the replacements, and Thomas  and the O line are as good as advertised, we can still be very good on offense.  If the D-line is as good as I think it can be, we could actually be mediocre or even above average on defense.  If that happens look out.  We could be really good.  Imagine a Paul Johnson offense humming along paired with a defense that can regularly get stops.  

Thus, my approach for this season is cautiously optimistic.  I’m worried, probably moreso than usual, but excited because we could be good.  But I really wish we hadn’t gotten any respect preseason and had started unranked again.  More motivation for us in preseason practice, less focus from our opponents on the GT game.  With the target on our backs and all the question marks, I really think anything from 5-7 to 15-0 is reasonably possible.  I guess I’ll predict something like 10-4 (I do think we are justifiably the Coastal favorites and we should be in the ACC Champ game).  If one of those 10 is the game at Thanksgiving, I’ll be pretty happy with that myself.  I think 9-4 or 8-5 is also pretty likely, however.  We won’t learn too much until week 3, but I’m excited to get started.

Go Jackets!

ACC Championship Game Preview - FSU

So we are going to keep a good thing going here.  Obviously the short and sweet blog posts are working out.  This one will be the same as the last few weeks.

What a game!  I still can't believe we won.  The first half went exactly as I expected.  UGA had the ball 4 times, ran 32 plays, gained 224 yards, for 7 yards per play, and we only forced 1 punt.  If not for the two fumbles at the 1 yard line, they would have had 21 points on just 4 possessions.  It would have been 2012 all over again - we were struggling to force third down.  Forget about getting stops.  

However, give the defense credit for continuing to give 100% on those two fumbles.  I believe it was Milton who never quit on the long run by Chubb, and tracked him down at the 1 yard line.  Without that effort, and the effort of the defense to get a stop on 1st and goal, they would have scored the TD before Chubb had the chance to fumble on 2nd and goal.  Similarly, what a great effort by Nealy to track down Michel at the 1 yard line and force the second fumble.  In both cases, it would have been easy to think "oh well they are going to score anyway" and halfheartedly give 80%.  Two perfect examples of why you should try as hard as you possibly can every play.  You never know what might happen to keep points off the board.

The offense played pretty well in the first half, I thought.  It moved the ball and got us into scoring situations.  The FG block wasn't the offense's fault, and the offense was mostly working with poor field position.  7 points on 4 possessions isn't great, but it really should have been 10, which isn't bad.  Especially against a pretty good defense like UGA, with the field position we kept getting.  

The second half was truly shocking.  The offense mostly steamrolled UGA.  Just completely pushed them around.  I thought the fumble at the goalline (one of the worst calls in history by the way - how was the forward progress not stopped?) might deflate us.  Nope.  They came right back out and did it again.  And again.  Just marching up and down the field.  

And the defense!  Where did that come from?  Our front 7 just beat up their O-Line.  We forced a 3 and out.  We overcame a faked FG and a bad pass interference call, which gave them 1st and goal at the 2, and forced a FG anyway.  And held them scoreless in OT.  Of course, we did give up the go ahead TD drive with 18 seconds left, but this is one of the nation's best offenses, and we pushed them to the brink.  Literally inches from winning the game with a 4th down stop.  

For the 2nd half, UGA was held to 137 yards on 35 plays (not counting the fake FG as an "offensive" play - thats on the special teams).  Just under 4 yards per play.  For the game, they scored 17 points on 7 possessions (8 counting OT).  The 17/7 ratio is identical to the Miami game.  Also with 2 turnovers forced in regulation.  

So they averaged 2.43 points per possession, and we averaged 2.4.  Really about as even as a game can be.  Which is a good thing if you ask me, as I think UGA is a legit top ten team, and we just went into Athens and went toe to toe with them, and outplayed them in the end.  

Total team effort, and a great game.

Of course, it will take the same thing to get a win tomorrow.  I actually think we matchup better with FSU than we do with UGA.  They are more finesse than power, and Winston has shown a vulnerability to INT's this year, now that he doesn't have the great running attack he had last year, and he no longer has the full compliment of standout WRs he had last year.  FSU still has talent, but not the overwhelming variety of talent from 2013, and it seems Winston has been trying to do too much.  Our secondary has shown the ability to create interceptions.  If that unit plays well, we could easily force 2 or 3.  

FSU's defense is pretty similar in quality to UGA's.  Its good.  Maybe a little better than Georgia.  I don't think it has overwhelming strength.  Good speed though.  No telling really how they are going to defend us.  Kelly, the defensive coordinator, worked here at GT for several years, and was the interim replacement during 2012 after Groh was fired mid season.  I'm not really sure whether his inside knowledge gives him much of an advantage or not.  

I have a sneaking suspicion we are going to win this game, and maybe by 10-14 points.  The defense has finally convinced me that it is much improved.  But let's not forget Winston, when playing well, is maybe the best player in the country, and FSU has plenty of talent.  I've also got a sneaking suspicion they've been on cruise control most of the year, and also have been worn down because they have taken everybody's best shot all year.  Basically every game, the opponent is playing its biggest game of the year and FSU is just trying to play an average game.  That wears you down.  

From FSU's psychological standpoint, they've only played one game all year comparable to this one - and that was a top 5 matchup against Notre Dame.  They probably haven't been "up" for a game in a while.  Then again, we are the best team they've played all year, as Notre Dame has been exposed and its apparent now their top 5 ranking was not deserved.  

Further complicating matters is that Georgia Tech has not traditionally handled positive press very well.  And we are now getting plenty of it.  We've been doubted all year long, even by obsessed fans like yours truly, but now people are giving us credit and believe in us.  Can we keep the same edge and play with the same intensity?

So I don't really know what to make of this game.  If both teams play well, I think it should be close.  I really think we have the advantage, and should be expected to pull out a close one.  But I wouldn't be surprised by either team winning by 28 points.  Both offenses are good enough to light people up if they execute well.

I'll predict that both teams play well, and I think we pull out a close win late, something like 35-31,

I can't wait to see what happens.  As always, Go Jackets!

UGA Preview

So here it is.  Clean Old Fashioned Hate.  Another year, another chance.

Once again I have time to write a full post but I don't want to mess with success.  We'll keep it short and sweet.

I take partial credit for the Clemson prediction.  Their offense was moving the ball OK with Watson.  Hard to tell how that game would have turned out if he had stayed healthy.  Their defense did an excellent job, holding our offense to 15 points, although we did miss a FG and we moved the ball pretty well.  Altogether it was what you would expect from a great offense against a great defense.  We did not score as much as I'd like, but we only had 8 possessions (not counting the two possessions running out the clock in both halves).  Moving the ball as well as we did, scoring a TD and getting into FG range 4 times, and eating clock, all of those things help you win a game that only has 8 possessions.  Of course, the defense scoring 2 TD's thanks to a Cole Stoudt meltdown was also a big help.  In the end the game was a comfortable win, but its likely a hard fought battle if Watson had played.

Nevertheless, however it happened, the defense has now played great 4 weeks in a row.  And yet I still have this nervous feeling that we really aren't any better.  That if we played UNC or Duke again, we'd get the same result defensively.  Pitt, UVA, NC State and now Clemson all made a lot of errors that I'm just not sure we forced.  And I highly doubt UGA does the same.

First of all, their strength is our biggest weakness.  Power running.  I don't know what we plan to do with their offensive line and Chubb.  I don't know what we can do.  I'm worried this game might look a lot like 2012, where we have a hard time forcing 3rd down.  And even if we do limit the run, their passing attack is pretty good too.  They are 7th nationally in both yards per carry and passer rating.  Probably why their offense is ranked 7th in the country according to Football Outsiders.  Its an excellent offense.

But here is the real problem for us in my opinion.  We have a great offense too, actually ranked #1 currently by Football Outsiders, but we will be playing a different defense.  Georgia hasn't been a bad defense all year, but they appear to be peaking.  They are currently 24th in Football outsiders - not bad at all.  (Our own defense has risen from 100th to 58th with our play the past 4 weeks, but that still isn't that good unfortunately).

As great as our offense is, a pretty good defense should be able to slow it down some and get a few stops.  And the worry is, even if we score a TD on half our possessions (which would be a great day offensively), they might beat that.  They might have 28 or 35 points on their first 4 or 5 possessions, literally.

If we can find a way to get a few stops - turnovers, penalties, whatever - then I like our chances a lot better and this game may be a tossup.  But I just don't know if we can do that.  I'm not even sure our defense can do as "well" as 2009 and force some FG's.

I fear we may lose by 2 or 3 TD's in a game that isn't really in doubt in the 4th quarter.  Hopefully, we can make plays defensively and keep the game close and pull it out in the end.

As always, Go Jackets!

Playoffs?!? Don't talk about... Playoffs?!? You Kidding Me? Playoffs??

So, believe it or not, I think we actually are not out of the playoff picture.  I know, I know, we have two losses, they aren't particularly good losses, and we haven't played the toughest schedule.  But just stay with me for a second...

Ole Miss beat Miss. St.  We beat UGA and FSU.  UGA beats Alabama (we need Missou to lose for this to happen obviously).  Who does the SEC send ahead of us?  Every SEC team has two losses or more, we would have two losses, and we have a head to head victory over the SEC Champ.

We would also be a 2 loss champion of a Power 5 conference, with wins over Clemson, UGA and FSU to end the season.  SEC Champ UGA and FSU previously on a 28 game unbeaten streak (we probably need them to beat Florida for this to work).

In that scenario, I think we would be in the 4 team playoff unless another conference got 2 teams into the playoff.  The only real threat to do so would be the Big 12, with Baylor and TCU.  I'm not sure how the committee would decide that if they both finish with 1 loss, and we do all of the above.

Obviously the above is a long shot.  We are probably no better than about 10% to win the next two games and we still need help if we do.  But it is fun to think about.  In the first 4 team playoff, we are still technically in the discussion at Thanksgiving.  I guess that's something...

Clemson Preview

So I've actually got a little more time this week, but I'm not going to mess with success.  The short and sweet blog method has been working well, so this week will also be short and sweet.

First of all I want to say don't be fooled by the defense.  Yes, I know, it appears that we have been improving.  Certainly we've put up good results the past two weeks on paper.  But its mostly been caused by two things.  One, we have played bad offenses, and two, those bad offenses have made unforced errors.  Mostly, dropped passes.  Not our fault, but we'll take it. We did force some turnovers, although some other turnovers have been mostly unforced errors.  But the defense deserves a little credit for making plays.

Unfortunately, I just don't think we are any better on defense.  Its the same old story.  We need to score and score and score some more or we could get beaten badly.  Because we just can't depend on getting stops, unless the other team gives it to us with silly mistakes.  Maybe things would be different if Cole Stoudt were playing, but I believe Clemson has Deshaun Watson back this week.  Stoudt's passer rating on the season is 119.  Watson's is 186.  Its not even close.  Watson is also the better runner if anybody is wondering.  They are a different offense with him.  Maybe he'll be sluggish in his first game back after the injury.  But if their offense is back to the pre injury Watson efficiency level, they will score and score a lot.

I'd like to think our offense, as good as it is, could keep pace.  But this may be the best defense we will play all year.  They are loaded, and extremely good up front.  Their only real poor game all year was the UGA game, and that wasn't all bad.  In fact, they played quite well until the 4th quarter, when you figure they had to be getting tired with their offense going 3 and out most every second half drive.  And UGA is an excellent offense anyway.

Most of UGA's success on this defense came at the expense of the LB's being out of position against the run, and the DB's not being very good in run support (read: poor tacklers, easy to block).  We will need to exploit the same weaknesses.  Because Clemson's D-Line is excellent.  No weaknesses.  And their LB's are big and fast and hard to block.  We need to try to get them running to the wrong place.  We should be able to have some success on the edge, blocking their corners and safeties.

But most importantly, we need to execute well and make no mistakes, because there isn't much margin for error this week.  The defense won't surrender many openings.  When they do, we need to take advantage.  And we'll just have to hope something good happens on defense.  I'm nervous, but if we play well, we could win.  It should be close, but if anyone is getting blown out, it'll be us.  I hope we play well.

As always, go Jackets!

NC State Preview

Well that was fun.  Truly shocking defense.  10 points?  Anybody know where that came from?

So I'm still on the same business trip.  Didn't even get to watch all of the game thanks to a wedding.  Have had basically zero free time to research this stuff.  So we are going to have a very short blog again this week.

Easily the worst part of last weekend was Pitt missing a 26 yard field goal.  Come on man... We need Duke to lose twice and that is if we win out.  We are running out of chances.  Duke is similar to us - the kind of team that could lose nearly any game if they don't play well.  So there is a chance.  But we now need to beat NC State and Clemson to finish 6-2 to have any realistic shot in my opinion.  Let's just handle our business and hope two of Cuse, VT, UNC or Wake can beat Duke.

I haven't really watched NC State play much this year.  They aren't terribly good.  Mediocre on both sides of the ball.  The kind of team we should be able to beat.  But they are at home and it really depends on which defense shows up.  The defense that found ways to get stops against Pitt and Miami (luck) and shut down UVA (what the?) or the UNC and Duke defense?  We should be able to score.

Here's hoping good GT shows up and we win easily, like we could.

Go Jackets!

UVA Preview

Not really going to be a post this week.  Thats what you guys get when I'm out of town all week on business and then out of town at a wedding on the weekend.  I won't even get to watch most of the game.  Hate fall weddings.  Seriously, who does this?

Anyway, great win last week.  They gave it to us as much as we took it (what was it, six turnovers?).  And even with all the turnovers, we still gave up 28 points and rarely got stops.  The game didn't have that many possessions.  You could argue we forced some of the fumbles, but, really, Pitt helped us out.  Shout out to DJ White I think for tracking down Connors at the goal line.  That play was huge.  And a lesson why you never give up on a play.  The offense played great as usual.

This week should be more fun.  Mike London somehow has created a team that is great at blocking and tackling and still bad.  He is truly a coaching phenomenon.  We should win, at home, but you know, when your defense can't stop anybody...

Another week of fun in the ACC, spinning the wheel of destiny.  We need Pitt to beat Duke for our ACC title hopes.  I think we need to run the table and finish 6-2.  5-3 might be enough but we need Duke to lose a bunch for that to happen.  And sadly Duke's schedule is... manageable.  They could win them all or they could lose any of them.  So, they are an ACC Coastal team basically.

Should be fun.  Let's go Jackets!