Syracuse

Well, so much for that good feeling.

Really that game was probably my fault.  Put the classic jinx on us with that stupid comment at the end.  Re-reading my blog post though, I feel like a lot of that was pretty spot on.  We did do a lot better offensively than last year (400 yards compared to 150, several more drives into scoring territory than last year).  And that "much better" performance was nevertheless only about 14-20 points.  We needed the defense to play well and it didn't.  BYU's offense may have improved to the point that its "pretty good", or our defense may have just played poorly.  We'll have to wait a couple weeks to see how both our defense and their offense play going forward.

The main reason we lost in my opinion was our play in the red zone.  Specifically, the defense.  This has been an issue for us for several years now.  We are not very good at forcing field goals.  If we stop the other team, it usually is before they get into our territory.  Once they get near our red zone, we usually usher them right into the end zone.  This season, we have allowed 16 offensive TD's and forced only 6 FG's (and one against Elon which hardly counts).  I don't have the time to compare this number to a bunch of other teams for context, but courtesy of cfbstats.com, I can tell you that we are 86th nationally in opponent red zone TD percentage.  Meaning, when an opponent gets inside our 20 yard line, we give up a TD at a far higher rate than most teams.  (65% if you are curious).

BYU is a good defense.  Ironically, they are only slightly ahead of us on the state I just quoted (76th at 62.5%) but they performed well in this game.  Some of these were not technically red zone trips, but when we drove into BYU territory, we often bogged down in FG range.  When the game was 24-13, both teams had created four promising drives that created scoring opportunities.  BYU converted 3 into TD's and made 1 FG.  We converted only 1 into a TD and went 2 for 3 on FG's.  And this is why we trailed 24-13.  We needed to hold BYU to around 20 points and the easiest way to do that would have been to tighten up when they got into our territory.  Turn one or two of those TD's into FG's, and its 20-13 or 16-13 coming down the stretch.  Playing poorly in this area is how you lose despite being roughly even in total yards.

The Pick 6 was the kind of play that will always kill you against a team like BYU.  We had a semi promising drive at midfield, with a chance for 3 or maybe 7 points, and instead they get a quick 7.  That kind of swing, against a BYU caliber defense, is usually going to end the game.  That type of play tends to be more about luck than anything else, so it does not concern me too much going forward.  It was a frustrating game, and another game that might have been winnable had we played well (probably would have needed near perfect execution in this case).  I was at least pleased to see us compete on both lines a lot better than last year.  I thought BYU still outplayed us in the trenches, but the margin was much closer this time around.

Anyway, on to Syracuse.  Along with Pitt, Cuse for a few years now has been a mediocre to bad team that is wildly inconsistent, capable of losing any game but also usually good for a big upset.  In other words, they fit perfectly into this conference.  That also makes them extremely difficult to predict.  On paper nothing here scares me too much.  They are good running the ball but don't throw it well.  Their defense is not terribly noteworthy.  We are at home and 9 point favorites.  Most of the computers seem to think we win by 1 or 2 TD's.

The most important thing in my opinion is to get the offense back on track.  When your execution is struggling, the last thing you want to see is a front 7 that beats a lot of blocks.  Which is exactly what we've seen three weeks in a row now.  Hopefully, tomorrow, this won't be as much of an issue.  Syracuse should be somewhere between Duke and UNC.  Our blocking was not stellar against either of those two, but it was good enough to get the job done.  That is what I expect tomorrow as well.  Something in the range of 31 or 35 points, probably.

The defense will need to avoid the collapse it endured last year.  As I've been saying for several posts, I have been pleased and excited by the defense.  Miami did not bother me too much because they are a really good offense (just ignore the UNC game last night - despite their play so far, UNC is actually pretty talented and Miami had several reasons to be flat.  That game was probably not an accurate depiction of Miami's true talent).  BYU has me a little more worried, because I don't think they are on the same level but still scored 31 offensive points on us.  Our defense looked great last year for a couple games and then came the epic collapse that started with Miami and continued through Middle Tenn., Clemson and BYU.  If that happens again, Syracuse is certainly good enough to score 40.  We should win but this team is no joke.  They have legitimate athletes.  Especially running the ball, where they recently changed from a senior pocket passer QB to a sophomore dual threat.  And they have two talented running backs (Jerome Smith and Prince Tyson-Gulley - who both have a good combination of size and speed).

Hopefully, the defense that played against Duke, VT and the 2nd half against UNC will show up and we can limit what they do.  Cuse only mustered 14, 17, 24 and 27 on Clemson, Penn St., NC State and Northwestern (in that order).  Clemson looks like a pretty good defense but the rest of those are probably not in the top 30 nationally, and are roughly comparable to GT or worse.  Unless we morph back into our midseason form from 2012, in which case we would be the worst of that group by far...

Here is to hoping we don't do that.  With moderate to pretty good execution on both sides, this is a game we should win.  And we need to do so, and probably win the next two as well, if we are going to keep the bowl streak alive.  I'd rather not need to upset Clemson or UGA in order to go bowling.  We have 2 FCS teams this year and can only count one for bowl eligibility, so we need 3 more wins against FBS teams - meaning we need to beat 3 of Cuse, UVA, Pitt, Clemson and UGA.  The most likely path there is simply to win the first three.

Let's go Jackets!