Virginia

Well.  Not much to say about Syracuse.  That was about as close to perfect as a game can get.  I'll just say that I think we played great, they played poorly, we got some breaks and I don't think they had a very good defensive game plan.  Don't think we are really 56 points better than Syracuse but I'll take it.  Obviously we run a fairly unique offense.  As I've shown in some other posts, the performance of a particular defense against the rest of the country is often not a very good barometer for how they do against us.  We sometimes have a lot of success against pretty good defenses (UNC most every year, for example) and mysteriously struggle against not terribly good defenses - for example, Kansas 2010, Wake Forest both times, and, the most relevant for this week, UVA in 2011.  We have established something of a pattern of picking one random team, who really is not that much worse than we are, to murdillate (that's murder + annihilate, because either one by itself just did not seem quite strong enough).    Syracuse this year, UVA last year... NC State in 2011 somewhat fits this pattern, although it was a little closer than the other two.  Still, that NC State team actually finished ahead of us in the computers, and yet we led 42-14 and 45-21 before they made it look better in garbage time.  And it was on the road.

Anyway, all of that is just to say that I don't think Syracuse is that bad.  To be honest, I'd probably prefer to trade this outstanding game every year for 3 or 4 merely good ones, and perhaps use one of those against Virginia Tech, but whatever.  It was still a fun game to watch.

On to UVA.  Interestingly, the all time series is 17-17-1.  Would be nice to go ahead and take a lead in the series.  Being tied all time with this program is not exactly a ringing endorsement for GT football (although, there is no real good reason that UVA has not been better than they have been).

We are 9 point favorites, and most seem to think that is low because UVA really is not very good.  We don't have many common opponents.  Just BYU and Duke.  We did much better against Duke (won by 24 instead of losing by 13), they did much better against BYU (won by 3 instead of losing by 18).  UVA has not played very well at all recently, and on paper this should be a comfortable win and GT favored by 9 is probably even a good bet.

I'm terrified.  This game has EXACTLY the wrong feel to it.  First of all its Charlottesville.  I have grown to hate that place (and I've never even been there).  We have sent a lot of teams who were supposed to win up there, and only 1 of them has actually won the game in the last 10 tries (In related news, Paul Johnson is apparently the first GT coach with a winning record, currently, over UVA since Bill Curry.  I guess its hard to have a winning record over a team when you lose every game at their place.  That kind of maxes you out at .500 huh?).  Granted, this UVA team might just be worse than any of those other 10 teams we faced on our last 10 road trips to C-ville, but I still just don't like the place.  I don't like being favored but not by double digits.  I really don't like that every GT fan I know thinks we'll win easily.  And I am not the biggest fan of the matchup here.  UVA is a weird team (like most everyone in the ACC).  Hard to predict.  They somehow are one of the nation's best 3rd down defenses, despite not being a very good defense.  You might think that is simply because they don't force many third downs, but you'd be wrong.  They are well above average in that category.  How can a defense that forces a lot of 3rd downs and is excellent at stopping them be bad, you might ask?  Well.. I have no idea.  Other than to shrug and say "its the ACC"?

Another mystery - for a mediocre to bad defense, they have a pretty big and strong front seven.  Usually not the greatest matchup for our offense.

The good news:  offensively they don't do much of anything well, and we have what appears to be a pretty good defense.  They should not score much.  But, didn't we think the same thing in 2011?  I distinctly remember 14 quick points and a 7 minute painstaking, ground and pound drive to end the game 2 years ago.  That offense was decidedly below average statistically but we could not get them off the field.  Yes, I know, our current defense is much better.  We think.  For now.

I've seen this movie before.  The good guy dies in the end.  I hope I'm wrong.  But looking at the major factors - its a road game, the fans (and probably players) are overconfident after last week, we are supposed to win, which gives them the psychological edge, but not by a lot, meaning we don't have a dominant talent or athleticism advantage...  Oh, and this happens to be the place where we ALWAYS seem to play poorly.

I don't like it.  Intellectual analysis tells me that we should win by 2 TD's or perhaps more.  But I'll take any win.  Any win at all.  1 point.  Triple overtime.  Whatever.  Let's just get out of there at 5-3 and I'll be happy.

Go Jackets!