Virginia Tech Preview

Well, sorry gang.  My indifference came early this year.  Clemson was exactly what I expected.  I just didn't care about Bowling Green.  And I thought both Louisville and Duke would be close games down to the wire, so you probably miss my "analysis" much. 

However, I'm back.  I guess.  A little too close to game time but here we are.

Virginia Tech is not normal Virginia Tech.  Can't really figure out what is with them.  They have played well in ACC play, mostly (except for escaping barely against a really bad UNC team).  They have played horribly outside of ACC play, in particular losing to Old Dominion.  Their trademark defense is not nearly as good as normal.  In fact, it is significantly worse than Duke's in my opinion, so our offense should have more success tonight.  (Of course, Duke lost to VT 31-14 in typical "ACC Wheel of Destiny" fashion). 

Our defense, which played very well against Duke, has still been mostly miserable this year and our special teams have been worse.  As such, I expect a loss, something like 31-21.   This year is shaping up a lot like 2015 in my opinion.  We spend all year seemingly being better than our record, and repeatedly getting spreads from Vegas that make GT fans confused (we were favored against all of South Florida, Pitt and Duke).  This spread tonight is only about 3 or 4 points, with VT being favored, meaning Vegas thinks this would be a pick-em on a neutral field.  That's odd.  I wonder what they know that I don't.

Anyway, I digress.  2015 was a year where we could have been better but just kept making late game mistakes and finding ways to lose.  Same thing this team has done really.  Just can't get it together.  We are capable of playing better, but probably won't. 

I hope we win more than 3 games this year, but right now I'd say 4-8 or maybe 5-7 is the best we can hope for.  And 3-9 is not out of the question.  6-6 seems unreachable, but I hope I'm wrong.

Let's go Jackets!

Clemson Preview

Disaster start to this season.  South Florida and Pitt were both winnable games and we needed to win at least one, and maybe both, to have a shot at a decent record.  Now we are looking at 1-3, because we aren't going to beat Clemson.  This game, every unit played poorly in the first half, and every unit played pretty well in the second half, but that wasn't enough.  This team continues to do just enough to lose.  Its hard to win on the road but you can't be a good team unless you can win on the road. 

I'm not going to bother analyzing this game too closely.  Clemson's defensive front is simply too good.  There is nothing really that we can do.  They are vulnerable to a spread passing team that repeatedly threatens with downfield passing.  But you need to be very good at that in order to trouble Clemson, and even then you might not.  That isn't what we do and so of course we aren't very good at it.  Even teams who are good at it often get beaten easily by this defense though.

Clemson's offense hasn't really impressed that much.  I'm sure they'll have enough firepower to score on our defense, but hopefully we can get some stops.  I just want something semi respectable like 31-10 maybe. 

As always, let's go jackets.  But I'm not excited about this one. 

Pittsburgh Preview

Well that was a disaster.

We continued our road losing streak and our troubling trend from last year of throwing away double digit second half leads.  Special teams were awful.  Obviously, you can't give up two kickoff returns.  The defense was mostly awful.  35 points allowed on 10 possessions is fairly terrible.  The offense was pretty good (38 points on 13 possessions) but sputtered in the 4th quarter, and of course there was the key fumble when had a chance to restore the 10 point lead late.  Hard to blame the offense for its performance over the whole game, but that's yet another huge mistake with the game on the line.

Pretty much nothing went right.

Pittsburgh is coming off their own debacle.  A 44 point curb stomping at the hands of their supposed rival, I guess.  Not sure if Penn St. feels the same way, but Pittsburgh hates them.  I guess we can relate.  In any event, Pitt looks terrible too.  We are actually favored by about a FG.  I have no idea what to make of this game, and that's only compounded by the location at Pitt.  That stadium annually produces some very weird results, both in college and pro games.  I consider it, along with Iowa, as college football's bermuda triangle of sorts.  Both places lived up to the billing last year, as Miami and Ohio St. were upset in shocking fashion and, in Ohio St's case, knocked out of the playoff.  But Pitt and Iowa have been pulling upsets like that for a long time.

This, of course, would be no "shocking" upset.  But still, weird things happen there.

More importantly, we don't know much about either team, except that neither is very good.  We might still be pretty good (we'll see how USF turns out), but my guess is we are a 6-6 or 5-7 or 7-5 kinds team.  If I'm right, this could end up being a crucial game in terms of making it to a bowl.  We already have one loss.  Clemson and UGA look like 2 more.  Miami and VT won't be easy. Duke looks solid so far.  There aren't too many probable wins on the schedule.  So we need to win more than our fair share of toss ups.

Here is one.

As always, let's go jackets!

South Florida Preview

Its always hard to tell much from an FCS game, but I did like the way the defensive scheme looked.  We look like we are planning to attack more.  We'll see if that translates into results.

Offense looked ok.  Not great.  A little sloppy with turnovers.  Need to clean that up.  Would like to see the O line play a little better.  But, it was fine I guess.

Going into this week, I don't really know much about South Florida.  Willie Taggart built up the program to a pretty good level before he moved to Oregon and then FSU.  South Florida was 10-2 last year.  They played a VERY weak schedule, but they did win 10 games I guess.

I think we are probably the slightly better team, but South Florida is a legitimate program.  I would say they are probably on Wake Forest's level or so, talent wise.  Maybe actually a little better.  Meaning we probably should win (and we are favored, opened around 6, down to 3.5 now).  But they could definitely win, especially at home.

I'll be happy with any win here.  I don't care if its pretty.  Charlie Strong is a good coach.  He's in his first year, so not sure how much influence he has had so far.  But normally he is a very good defensive coach.  South Florida runs a spread offense but with a new QB.  So a lot of question marks.  I just hope we execute well and play smart football.  If we do that, we should be OK. 

As always, let's go Jackets!

2018 Season Preview

Here we go again.  And by that I mean we begin another season, but also here we go again with yet another Defensive Coordinator.  That job has been a revolving door for Coach Paul Johnson.  I didn’t know anything about Wommack, and didn’t like the job he did in 08-09.  At the time, I loved that Paul Johnson fired him after a great season for the team (2009), because the defense did not do very well.  In hindsight, given Paul Johnson’s defensive track record, maybe Wommack wasn’t so bad. 

I loved the Al Groh hire.  Paul Johnson is a guy who routinely has a good or very good offense, but a mediocre or bad defense.  So he hired a guy who is the opposite.   Al Groh routinely had good or very good defenses at UVA, but mediocre or bad offenses.  So, great combination right?  Well, it turns out, the head coach has some influence over which unit is good.  Its not all scheme.  It can be influenced by everything from personnel decisions (a talented player might be a LB and running back in high school) to practice time and the focus on certain units.  Groh apparently ran his program with a defensive focus, and could not replicate that as DC under Paul Johnson.

I thought Roof would do OK and he did, but he was sort of a bland hire in my opinion.  Unlikely to turn the defense around, but a solid coach who wouldn’t let it get terrible.

However, if we want to be any good, we simply need a better defense.  Will we have it under Nate Woody?  Well, he had a very good record at Appalachian St.  Whether that will translate to this level remains to be seen, but he might be a very good coach.  At a minimum, he runs the kind of scheme I want us to run.  Heavy on blitzing and creating negative plays.  No more bend but don’t break.  We attack.  Teams will either punt or score, but they’ll do it quickly.  I like that with our offensive scheme because it should mean we dominate time of possession, and wear out their defense while our defense stays rested.   Our offense rarely goes 3 and out, and tends to help our defense by shortening the game in terms of possessions.   But that advantage is wasted when we play bend but don’t break, so the other team tends to move the ball as well.  We played an 8 possession game against Mercer a couple years ago, largely because we couldn’t get their offense off the field.  We won 35-10, but there is really no excuse to let Mercer march up and down the field.  With this defense, we might allow 14-20 points for Mercer (maybe maybe not) but the game likely has 13 or 14 possessions, so we would have scored more like 50-60 ourselves, and the game would have been over at halftime.  And honestly, their offense probably starts to feel pressure and lose their rhythm, while our offense builds a rhythm.  That’s what happens when an offense goes on a 7-10 play drive, and the other offense only runs 3-5 plays, and that keeps happening. 

So, if we can successfully generate negative plays, backfield pressure, and turnovers, that should work in our favor in terms of how games flow.  By the second half our offense will be in rhythm, theirs will not, and our defense will be rested while theirs is not. 

Offensively, we should be pretty good this year.  We are normally good on offense, and this team has experience and talent at QB, B-back and A-back.  The O-line is the key, and is moderately experienced.  But that unit has been all over the map with no real explanation the past 5 years.  We’ll just have to see.  The WRs should be mediocre, but good enough to get the job done if Marshall plays better this year. 

I think we’ll be a good team, but once again a tough schedule.  Draw Louisville from the Atlantic with Clemson, UGA as always, the Coastal is pretty deep with Miami and VT being very good and UNC and Duke actually being pretty good.  So it’ll be a tough road, but here are my predictions:

Alcorn St – nothing to see here.  Easy win.  Excited to see the defensive scheme.  I want a lot of sacks and negative plays.

At South Florida – tough game here.  They’ve been a good team for 3 years, but this year they return very little.  Most of their yards and tackles graduated, and they don’t have many seniors in key positions.  Still a road game against a legitimate team.  I’ll say GT is 60-70% to win, and we should win.

At Pitt – Another tough but winnable game.  Road game at a team that’s always at least decent.  They have about the average experience level returning.  I’ll call this 50% for GT.

Clemson – Home game, but against a national title contender.  We know the story here.  Great D-line.  Probably a 31-10 loss or something like that.  I’ll give us perhaps a 5-10% chance.  They are simply loaded.  Need them to play a poor game.

Bowling Green – Not a good team.  From the MAC. Likely to be among the worst in FBS.  90% win.

At Louisville – very tough draw here from the Atlantic.  Post Lamar Jackson, but given Petrino’s track record, probably still the Atlantic’s 3^rd best team.  They do return the least experience in the ACC though.  A game we can win. I’ll call it 50% as well.

Duke – home game but Duke will probably be better this year than last.  This was our worst defensive game last year (actually maybe the worst defensive game in the CPJ era, which is really saying something).  Hopefully we get revenge.  I’ll call it 60% for us to win thanks to home field. 

At VT – We have really had their number lately.  Haven’t lost in Blacksburg since 2012.  Crazy.  Anyway, they should be good per usual, but don’t return all that much experience.  Below average nationally.  We will have a shot, but they will be favored.  I’ll call it 30-40% for GT.

At UNC – Most seem to think they’ll be better (hard to be much worse) but they will also be relatively inexperienced.  A lot of unknowns here.  Even though we are on the road, and haven’t won here since 2012, I’ll call it 50%. 

Miami – Supposedly a great team this year.  We’ll see, but they should be good at a a minimum.  Will be a tough game.  Not Clemson tough, but tough.  I’ll call it 25%. 

UVA – Home game and they are not supposed to be good.  I’ll say 80%.

At UGA – Hate em, but they’ll be good again.  Lost a fair amount of playmakers, so they won’t be quite as good as last year.  The way they are recruiting, I expect 2019 and 2020 to be VERY good years for UGA.  But this year may be a very small step backwards.  Still they will probably be a top 15 team, maybe better.  We play better in Athens than Atlanta in this series, but I’m only going to give us a 20% chance here.

Add that up and its about 6.5 wins.  Just a tough schedule.  Not very many gimmes.  I’ll predict 7-5, with one big upset (ooh I hope its UGA) and one flop (South Florida?   UVA?).  Unfortunately, pretty much the status quo.  But we should return to a bowl game.

If Coach Woody proves as good as we hope, maybe we could win 8 or 9, but I think its unlikely he’ll get the defense that good that fast. But here is to hoping.

As always, let’s go Jackets!

Duke Preview

Botched it up again last week.  Wasn't really in the mood to post after the UVA debacle.  In hindsight maybe not a terrible loss, but not good.  UVA isn't terribly good.  So even though it was on the road, that was a game we probably should have won.  Don't think the rain helped us much, but you've still got to make plays. 

Another frustrating loss, made even more frustrating (to me) by the VT win.  Which we should have won by 14-20 points but instead nearly choked away.  There is just something about this team.  Really, we are pretty good.  But we just find ways to lose, or nearly lose.  We could easily be 8-1 right now, and that hypothetical 8-1 is all the more impressive now that we see how good Miami is. 

Tennessee was simply a horrible loss.  UVA not a good one.  Miami a good loss maybe but still a game that was there for the taking.  Double digit leads in the second half of all of them. 

So, since we have yet to win a single game this year anywhere but Bobby Dodd, I hesitate to predict a win.  Even though we should beat Duke.  I'm worried.  Of course, I would gladly continue the pattern for two more weeks (no wins on the road, no losses at home).  But given how unlikely a win over UGA looks, I'd rather go ahead and lock up a bowl this weekend. 

Duke's offense is bad.  In between #85 and #100 or so nationally based on the computer models I follow.  Their defense is good though, about 30-40th nationally.  Our offense and defense are both about 25-30th nationally.  Duke does have the edge in special teams according to football outsiders (the only model I know of that ranks special teams).  Duke is 89th, while we are 124th nationally (out of 130 teams).  That may be where some of our "hidden" failures have been this season.  We have close to the worst special teams in the country. 

Anyway, I guess I predict a win, because we should win, but I don't feel good about it.  Just don't have much confidence in this team to do what its supposed to do.  We'll see. 

As always, Go Jackets!

UVA Preview

Well I botched it up last week.  Didn't get around to posting at all.  I was pretty sure our offense would look a lot like 2016 against Clemson, so I wasn't really excited about analyzing the game.  And I was right.  That front is just really good.  I didn't really even have a major problem with that performance.  Just hard to do much when the other guys are that big and fast. 

Anyway, on to this week.  Charlottesville is not exactly a place GT fans generally remember fondly.  We've only won there twice since 1990.  Fortunately, both have been recent (2009 and 2013) so maybe we are turning that tide.  2011 was an upset loss and 2015 was a game we probably should have won, even though it came during the bad year where everything went wrong and we finished 3-9.  Hopefully we can exorcise some of those memories this weekend.

UVA isn't all that good.  But - and stop me if you've heard this before - they are a mediocre ACC team that is tough to predict.  For example, Duke and Indiana are about the same quality, and UVA beat one at home by 7, and lost to the other at home by 17.  Boise St. is better than Pitt, but UVA went on the road and lost to Pitt by 17, after going on the road and beating Boise by 20.  They also somewhat inexplicably lost by 31 at home to Boston College.  Don't get me wrong, BC is pretty good, and maybe even should have won at UVA, but not by 30. 

So, it'll depend what UVA team shows up tomorrow.  UVA is fairly consistently mediocre.  Not really good at anything, not terrible at anything.  Their offense and defense are both in the 50-80 range according to football outsiders and Massey.  Meaning we have a better offense and a better defense (our offense and defense are ranked in the 15-45 range by those two).  Massey predicts us to win 35-20, and says we have an 87% chance to win.

I think that's about right.  We should win.  We are better and it really isn't that close.  But, this is the ACC with its wheel of destiny, and we are GT (never really a dominant team that can chalk up easy wins).  So we better be ready to fight for it.  But if normal UVA shows up, we shouldn't have too much trouble.

I predict a close game for about a half, and then a comfortable GT win.  As always, let's go Jackets!