Week 5 Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

Last week I had a bad week by “free money” standards, only going 2 and 2. Granted, I did make UGA a “free money” pick even though I thought they might lose. I did that to jinx them, and it worked so well that I may keep doing it. So really I was 2 for 3 on “Free money”, but I gotta score it the way I said it or else the jinx won’t work. UNC and Miami covered for me, and Bama decided to toy with Arkansas before winning so they didn’t cover.

I went 2 for 5 on solid bets. GT, well, whoops. BC failed to cover, by a lot, and LSU barely missed covering 8.5. FSU and Auburn won for me.

Once again my toss ups appeared to in fact be toss ups. I went 1 for 3, with only Maryland covering. Gotta stop betting on Duke. Boise St. also barely failed to cover. Weak Boise. Real weak.

So far on the season:

Free Money	7 for 11
Solid Bets	8 for 15
Toss Ups	4 for 12
Total	19 for 38

Clearly, if you went to Vegas and just put 10,000 down on each of my “free money” bets every week, you would have a pretty good year. (The previous sentence should in no way be read as guaranteeing anything in any way, or even advising you to make any bets at all. Any money you lose is your own fault. I accept no liability for any misplaced reliance on your part.)

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

FSU covers 6.5 at UVA. UVA may be much better this year, but I just have a feeling that they aren’t that good yet.

Oklahoma covers 3.5 against Texas. Take that to the bank.

Maryland will beat Duke by more than 7.5. Not taking Duke to cover anything again anytime soon.

UGA easy money by more than 4.5 over Colorado…

Florida + 9.5? Is this spread serious? I know that the gators didn’t look so good the first couple games, and that Bama beat them senseless in the SEC title game last year, but Florida has some serious talent. I just don’t see it. This game goes down to the wire and could go either way, but UF covers.

Solid Bets:

Take Clemson with 3.5 points. Miami has looked pretty good, so really I am just showing my Clemson bias here. I did grow up as a Tiger fan. I confess.

I am gonna take N.C. State at home getting 3.5 points over VT. Could be a homer pick, since they just beat us, but for now, I am gonna get on the Wolfpack bandwagon.

GT covers 9.5 Homer pick. Big time.

I think Notre Dame beats Boston College by a lot more than 2.5.

Toss-Ups:

North Carolina favored by 13.5 over East Carolina. Tough one to call, but I think UNC gets it done.

Wisconsin favored by 1.5 over Michigan St. Really couldn’t care any less about a game between two ranked teams that I care about this one. I’ll go with the Spartans, because I think Wisky is overrated.

Very tough spread to call, but I will take Oregon by more than 6.5 over Stanford only because they are so good at Autzen stadium.

NESBITT jokes for the week:

1 – The man who said “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself” never played defense against Joshua Nesbitt.

2 – When Joshua Nesbitt stops playing football, Nike’s slogan will become “Just Did It”.