Week 7 Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

For two weeks in a row I lost more free money picks than I won. And that was counting winning the UGA game, which I did not think was free money. So really I went 0 for 2. But I've gotta count it, or else the jinx won’t work. In fact I might have screwed the pooch last week by putting “snickers” the middle of the sentence. (UGA guaranteed to cover 11 (snickers) against Tennessee). That’s probably why UGA played so well. My bad guys. Gotta fix the mental mistakes. If I don't pick it like I mean it I guess the jinx doesn’t work. Anyway, no idea what Florida and Stanford were doing, besides making me look bad for no good reason. That adds up to 1 for 3.

I went 3 for 5 on my solid bets. State Wake and FSU covered easily. Especially FSU. The game did NOT come down to a kick as I predicted. Oops. Clemson and Bama did not cover. I obviously jinxed Bama with that one horse race comment. Although I do think the SEC would be a one horse race if Bama didn’t have to play 6 teams in a row coming off bye weeks. One of the more remarkable stats I have ever seen. Really sucks for Bama.

Once again won all three “toss-ups”. Some “expert” I am.

So far on the season:

Free Money	10 for 19
Solid Bets	12 for 24
Toss Ups	10 for 18
Total	32 for 61

Following my free money bets is looking less and less like a good idea.

I am now better than .500, but my toss ups have been the surest bets, with the solid bets second. Free money is the worst. So exactly backwards. Excellent work.

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

UGA favored by 16.5 over Vandy in Athens. UGA is a lock to cover that. Bet on the dawgs.

N.C. State favored by 7.5 at East Carolina. The Pack has enough defense to beat ECU much worse than that, considering that the Pirates play no defense and the Pack have hung at least 30 on most everyone they have played this year. I expect a 49-24 kind of game.

Clemson favored by 15.5 over Maryland at home. Maryland is not very good, but Clemson’s coaching staff will win the battle of who can throw away the most points. I think, emphasize think, that Clemson wins, but bet on Maryland with that big of a spread.

UNC favored by 6.5 at Charlottesville? UNC almost always loses to UVA (10 of the last 12) and believe it or not they have not won there since 1981. I’ll bet UVA every time here until UNC proves they can beat those odds. Take the hoos. (as a side note, everyone should cheer for UNC to lose. That would give UNC 2 conference losses, one of them to us to give us the tiebreaker edge. We could then safely use the Heels, again, as our secret weapon, potentially handing VT and Miami key conference losses that may help send us to Charlotte).

Solid Bets:

FSU favored by 21.5 at home against BC. Once again, bet against BC, because they have what I believe to be the worst offense in major college football. The eagles play good defense, but FSU will eventually score enough to cover. Take the Noles.

Miami favored by 19.5 at Duke. I’ll assume the Canes cover this, because they should. But then again, they probably should have kept it closer than 28 at home against FSU. But I think they come out angry. Bet on Miami.

VT favored by 22.5 at home against Wake. VT is a good team, the JMU loss notwithstanding, but I think Grobe is too good of a coach to lose this badly. Bet on Wake with all those points.

Georgia Tech favored by 18.5 at home against Middle Tennessee. Optimistically assuming we continue to improve on both sides of the ball, I think we will cover this comfortably. Don’t take this the wrong way, we could show up flat (Kansas?) and lose this game. But I bet we don’t. Take the Jackets.

Auburn favored by 3.5 at home over Arkansas. Take the razorbacks to win outright. They look good this year, and what exactly has Auburn done to get their top ten ranking so far? Forgive me for not assuming South Carolina is great just because they upset Bama off a bye week. So coming from behind to beat them doesn’t necessarily impress me. Besides that, War Eagle’s best win is lucking out against Clemson, at home, after being outplayed most of the game. And then they barely beat less than stellar Kentucky and Miss. St. teams. Here’s betting Auburn finishes the year outside the top 20.

Toss-Ups:

Nebraska favored by 9.5 over Texas. In Lincoln. Nebraska should cover. This is only a toss up because Texas is off a bye and I expect them to give the Huskers their best shot. The horns are desperate. But still, I am betting on Nebraska here, even though I think they will 0nly barely cover.

Ohio St. favored by 3.5 at Wisconsin. I’ll take Ohio St. to win because that’s just what happens when you are talking Ohio St. and the big ten, but no idea if they cover. I’ll bet on the buckeyes because 3.5 is not much.

NESBITT jokes for the week:

1 – Joshua Nesbitt can read Lady Gaga’s poker face.

(#2 is not original but I think it is pretty funny…)

2 – Joshua Nesbitt sleeps with a nightlight. But not because he is afraid of the dark. Rather, the dark is afraid of Joshua Nesbitt.