Week 6 Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

Last week is the first week, I think, that I lost more Free Money bets than I won. 2 for 5. Although again, UGA shouldn’t really count, since I thought that line was far from free money, but the jinx worked! Gotta keep that going this week, even though I think UGA favored by 11 over Tennessee is absolutely ridiculous. Anyway, FSU and Oklahoma covered, and of course Duke covers the one week I bet against the devils. Also, I was way off on Florida, but how was I supposed to know they would have so many turnovers, and that they would include 2 inside Bama’s 5 yard line, AND a pick 6.

I went 1 and 3 on solid bets. All my homer picks, Clemson, GT and State, did not cover. But Notre Dame did beat BC senseless.

Won all three “toss-ups”. Some “expert” I am.

So far on the season:

Free Money	9 for 16
Solid Bets	9 for 19
Toss Ups	7 for 15
Total	25 for 50

Following my free money bets is looking less and less like a good idea.

Overall, I am batting .500, which statistically is what you would expect from a drunken monkey throwing darts at the wall…

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

UGA guaranteed to cover 11 (snickers) against Tennessee.

Florida, with a coach, beats LSU, which may or may not have a person that could accurately be described as a “coach”. I’ll let you decide. Anyway, take Florida by a lot more than 6.5.

I think Stanford is a lock to cover 9.5 at USC. Wow. Never thought I would hear myself say that.

Solid Bets:

N.C. St. covers 9.5 against the defense that was actually recruited to Boston College and the volunteer firemen who play offense for the Eagles.

Clemson is a 2.5 dog at UNC. They cover, but I bet they can find a way to cover 2.5 and still lose the game.

Horse #1 in the SEC’s one horse race will beat South Carolina by more than 6.5

Wake Forest is a 5.5 dog to Navy, which means the oddsmakers think that Navy is better than us and Maryland is better than Wake. Both bad for GT. I think (hope?!) Wake covers.

FSU keeps it closer than 6.5 at home against the U. I think it comes down to a kick. Which means Miami wins, because it will either be Bosher for Miami making it or whatever JV clown FSU has found to become the 19^th guy to miss a game winning kick against the Canes. But either way, its closer than 6.5.

Toss-Ups:

I’ll say GT covers 9.5. That is the definition of a toss up though. We were an 8 point favorite two years ago at home when UVA beat us. No idea what that means.

Michigan favored by 4.5 over Michigan St. I think I’ll stick with sparty. Michigan is better this year, but still not much of a defense. No idea who wins the game, but Michigan State covers the 4.5.

VT covers 23.5 against Central Michigan. I guess. Don’t know. Don’t really care.

NESBITT jokes for the week:

1) Joshua Nesbitt is so good that he managed to be first team All-ACC last year even though he only plays football part time. His full time job is acting under the alter ego “D. L. Hughley”.

2) On the game tying two point conversion QB draw against Wake Forest, Nesbitt didn’t back up 3 steps to fool the defense. He backed up 3 steps to give them a fighting chance.