Week 8 - Picks

Every week I will pick all the ACC games against the spread, as well as the biggest national games of the weekend, and occasionally the UGA game, even though UGA games are unlikely to fit either of those two criteria.

There will be three categories. “Free Money” are the games I feel the most confident about. “Solid bets” are next, and then “Toss-ups” are the ones that could go either way. I’ll keep track of how I am doing with a chart that I’ll update each week, so you readers can make fun of me for (probably) being sub .500 and correctly picking more “Toss-ups” than “Free Money” bets.

Finally had a week where I was not below .500 on “Free Money” bets. But I was exactly .500, so not so good. UGA covered easily, as did Clemson, but N.C. St. took a nosedive and UNC, well they did in fact prove they could finally play well at UVA. Oops. 2 for 4.

Ooh. Hmm. Tough, tough week in my solid bets. FSU almost lost to BC, so they didn’t even come close to covering. Miami was closer, but only beat Duke by 15. VT did cover against Wake, and Auburn covered easily against Arkansas. Although on that one I think I was screwed by Mallet’s injury and the instant replay guys. Pfft. Good thing I bet on GT. 1 for 5.

0 for 2 on tossups. Nebraska did not cover, and in fact actually lose the game. As did Ohio St. Rough week overall for me.

So far on the season:

Free Money	12 for 23
Solid Bets	12 for 29
Toss Ups	10 for 20
Total	34 for 72

At least I am back up to where “Free Money” is leading. I guess that’s something…

Here are this week’s picks.

Free Money:

UGA is an absolute lock to win by more than 3.5 at Kentucky. But here is a funny article… http://www.kentucky.com/2010/10/18/1484034/cats-think-they-can-win-sec-east.html. Check that headline out. That’s right, someone at Kentucky actually is worried about the Cats “looking past” UGA. How do you look past a team that is a much better program than you, beats you nearly every year, and has a better conference record THIS season? Yeah I don’t get it either.

Virginia Tech is favored by 26.5 over Duke. If they can beat Wake that badly, I think they can beat Duke that badly. Take the Hokies.

Iowa favored by 5.5 against Wisconsin. Look for a let down here after the Badgers big win. Plus Iowa is probably actually better anyway, and their defense is great against power running, which is basically all daaaa Baaaaadgers can do anyway. Hawkeyes cover 5.5.

Auburn is favored by 5.5 over LSU. I maintain that both of these teams are overrated, but they are both clearly worthy of being ranked, so this is a big game. Cam Newton hasn’t been very good against good defenses this year (and Clemson and Miss St. arguably don’t even qualify as “good”) so I expect LSU to slow him down big time. Of course, LSU doesn’t have much of an offense. I think it comes down to a kick, which LSU will of course win due to Les Miles’ deal with the devil. (don’t believe me? Its like Pat Forde said, look at LSU’s ranking in the BCS, AP and Coaches poll and tell me you don’t find it strange that their all “6”).

Solid Bets:

Clemson favored by 5.5 over GT. Given our decided coaching advantage, I am taking the yellow jackets here. I actually think Clemson will find a way to lose the game late, but if they win, I bet we cover.

Miami favored by 6.5 at home against UNC. I think UNC’s ball hawking secondary capitalizes once again on the pick machine that is Jacory Harris. I think the heels win, so I am confident they win the bet as 6.5 underdogs.

Oklahoma favored by 3.5 at Missouri. I think Mizzou is good, but they don’t win big games. Take the sooners.

Toss-Ups:

Boston College is actually favored by 3.5 against Maryland. Even after last week, I still think BC is not very good, and Maryland, while not being very good, is slightly better. FEAR THE TURTLE.

Notre Dame favored by 6.5 over the midshipmen. Not really a big game, but its Paul Johnson’s old stomping ground. I am taking the midshipmen with the points.

Oklahoma St. is a 5.5 point underdog at home against Nebraska. I think the huskers get back on track here. Tough break for the pokes. They were doing so well.

UVA favored by 24.5 over Eastern Michigan. I’ll take the (Eastern Michigan mascot – plural) to cover that. Not convinced at this point that UVA could beat the Georgia Tech chapter of Pike by 24.5.

Nesbitt Jokes:

1 – When the boogey man goes to bed at night, he checks his closet for Chuck Norris. Chuck Norris checks his closet for Tim Tebow. Tebow doesn’t check his closet for anything. That’s because he knows Joshua Nesbitt has his back.

(#2 is not original once again this week, but its funny, and I am running out of creativity. And the ones I make up aren’t that good anyway… I know, I didn’t have to tell you that).

2 – When Joshua Nesbitt sleeps, his bed moves 3 yards.