2010 Georgia Tech Football - The Break Out Player Is...

Orwin Smith!

Most of you know him as the “good” kick returner last year. If you didn’t notice, he was the guy with the good returns. He averaged 24 yards per return on 37 returns. Peeples, our other returner, had 11 returns and averaged just 16.64 yards per return, with presumably similar blocking. It is possible there are other explanations for such a big difference, but I think its safe to assume that means Orwin is a much better runner than Embry. In fact, that assessment matches up exactly with my opinion from watching the two run. I have nothing against Peeples. He has good speed. He is just a mediocre runner. He does not break that many tackles or get many extra yards.

On the other hand, Orwin is not quite as fast as Peeples, but he is close. His other running skills are the difference. He is very much like Dwyer in that he never seems to get tackled by the first guy. He hits the hole with a great first step, and then typically identifies a second crease quickly enough to hit it as well. And he runs through arm tackles like they aren’t there.

All of this analysis comes from Orwin last year returning kickoffs. He did rush 31 times for 170 yards, but I don’t remember seeing any of them. However, I bet at the end of this season everyone will remember seeing him run. I predict he becomes one solid option for us in situations where we need 4 yards, no questions asked. Because I think he would have a good shot to get 4 yards even with just about no blocking. He is that good of a runner.

As for other breakout playes, I have heard people say Richard Watson and Stephen Hill. Those are very good predictions. However, I don’t think Watson will get as many carries as Smith, and Hill is someone that everyone already knows about, even if his stats may jump up a ton.

I have also heard Anthony Allen and Roddy Jones, which are ridiculous. If you have already had good years in the past, and people know you, then you cant break out.

As a side note, I am not really sure I believe that Roddy had that much worse of a year last year. I know that his stats were much worse, but that may be mostly because he was replaced by Anthony Allen at the preferred A back spot. I don’t even know if there is a preferred A back spot, but I have a highly unscientific opinion that the guy who gets Nesbitt’s right hand pitches is in better shape to run, either because they are better pitches, or because we put our best blockers on that side, or some of both... Anyway, that guy was Roddy in 2008 and Allen in 2009.

Here are the numbers from the last two years, with 2009 on top.

Player	Carries	Yards	Average	Td’s
Dwyer	235	1395	5.9	14
Nesbitt	279	1037	3.7	18
Allen	64	618	9.7	6
Jones	53	345	6.5	3
Dwyer	200	1395	7.0	12
Nesbitt	172	693	4.0	7
Jones	81	690	8.5	4
Shaw	63	200	3.2	3

Two things from this chart. First of all, its weird that Dwyer had exactly the same number of yards both seasons. I assume that is correct and not a typo from espn? And second, I think its very significant that Jones in 2008, and Allen in 2009, the two guys who get most of Nesbitt’s right hand pitches, had the best average per carry. Maybe there is something to that.

I do know that Roddy was slowed last year by a injured wrist. But I think that would only affect how many carries he gets. Someone will have to explain to me how exactly it can possibly affect his yards per carry, as in, man I could have gotten 7 yards there, but my wrist hurt, so I only got 4. What?

One last point. How well Orwin does this year will obviously be affected by how much he is on the field, which will be heavily affected by how well he blocks. And I do not know how well he blocks as I make this prediction. I do know that Embry blocks well, which is probably why he is the starter. I would assume that if Paul has Orwin listed as second string on the depth chart, that means he can block very well, but I just don’t know.

Anyway, watch out for Orwin Smith in 2010.

And as always,

Go Jackets!