Week 4 Preview - North Carolina State

Before I write the blog every week I like to read the message boards of various sites like espn.com, the AJC, and the Hive, and try to get a feel for the pulse of Yellow Jacket nation. This week, I was disappointed to see that it seems most everyone feels the 9 point spread that Vegas gave us is “absurdly high”. The consensus from most fans seems to be that any win would be good, and they would not take us with that many points. Everyone seems genuinely confused as to what Vegas was thinking.

I can tell you why Vegas gave us that many points. First of all, the majority of the nation does not really pay attention to teams that closely. They are probably aware that we lost to Kansas, but most probably don’t know exactly how bad of a loss that is. A lot of Vegas bettors will probably be aware that GT is the defending ACC champs, playing at home, and N.C. St. didn’t even go to a bowl last year. And remember that Vegas sets the line in an attempt to get half the money on both sides, so all they really care about is what the typical bettor thinks.

But more importantly, I don’t think the line is off in terms of the way the game should actually go. In fact, in my weekly picks, I took GT to cover. The simple reason for this is that we are a bad matchup for N.C. St. I do think the Wolfpack are improved, and are a pretty good team. But you have to look at how they play.

First of all, their defense is undersized, but fast and scrappy. That does not matchup well against our offense. The number one most important thing to do to stop us is to get a good push up front and have your defensive line get off some blocks. If they can do that, they can limit Nesbitt and Allen running up the middle, which forces everything wide and allows the linebackers to pursue the corner without hesitating. It also prevents our O line from getting downfield and blocking linebackers and safeties. An exaggerated example of this effect was the Iowa bowl game last year. They shut us down almost entirely because their defensive line completely dominated our offensive line. N.C. St. will not be able to win the battle up front. In fact, I expect us to get a pretty decent push. Allen should be able to get 3 or 4 yards pretty easily, and more on some plays. That will distract the linebackers, making them hesitate and focus too much on Allen, which obviously opens the door for Nesbitt and the A backs on the corner.

Furthermore, a lot of N.C. St.’s success on defense comes from good blitz packages. We are not really a team you can blitz. Blitzes work best against a relatively stationary target, like a QB in the pocket. When you blitz us, all you tend to do is get guys in the backfield in the wrong place, and take away guys down the field that might have made a tackle. We are still going to block the guys that we need to block. If you overload one side on a blitz, we will probably just run the other way. At best, if you disguise it well, and manage to overload blitz the correct side, you will eventually get burned by guessing the wrong side if you try to do this more than once or twice. Unless you can correctly figure out which way we are running on every play, but then you could likely stop us without blitzing. Main point being, if NC St. blitzes much they are likely to see a lot of Allen and the A backs sprinting toward the end zone.

So they won’t be able to blitz us very well, and the hesitation that our offense causes will negate some of their speed. They do not have the size to give us problems. On top of all of that, throw in the fact that our offense tends to start clicking sometime around week 4 or 5. 2008 Miss. St. and then last year against UNC were both week 4. I know we didn’t have a great game offensively against UNC last year, but we did gain over 400 yards against a really good defense. And then we really played well against Miss. St. in Week 5 of 2009. I think the combination of us starting to get a rhythm and N.C. St. being a good type of defense for us to play against will lead to us scoring a lot of points.

What about our defense? Most GT fans are very down on the defense, and with good reason. We have not been very good. We have played excellent defense in the fourth quarter two games in a row, which shows that Groh may be as good as advertised at making adjustments. But we do look weak up front and we have not tackled very well.

BUT, again, look at how N.C. St. plays. They are a good offense, but they are very much a finesse offense. Wilson is a very good passer down the field, dropping passing into seam routes and scrambling if nothing is there. Their running game is based on speed, mostly running wide. They do not power block or power run very well. All of that will help us because they will not be very good at attacking our two primary weaknesses. They aren’t very strong up front, so our weakness is not a huge problem. And for the most part they are not very powerful runners. They run around people not through them. So they will not be terribly good at breaking tackles.

Meanwhile, our defense has good speed and is generally tough to run wide against. Specifically, I remember two plays against UNC, a sweep and a reverse, where they tried to run wide and we pursued with 3 or 4 defenders and easily stopped both runs for losses. There were several similar plays against Kansas. Additionally, aside from a handful of busted coverages, we have actually played pretty well in pass defense.

Now, to be fair, just because we are “pretty good” at these things does not mean we can shut down N.C. St. Russell Wilson is very good, and they have some playmakers and a really good offense. I expect them to score on us. I expect us to have a busted coverage or two, and Wilson to scramble. But our defense will likely play better overall than it has to this point, for the reasons listed above.

Finally, as bad as we are, we may be the best defense that N.C. St. has played thus far. Cincy and Central Florida do not impress me that much.

Now, it is certainly possible that we may not execute terribly well, or that we will show up flat since we are 9 point favorites. And while we are capable of beating a very good team, we do not have the athletes or the power on either line necessary to be able to beat pretty good teams without our A game. So showing up flat or executing poorly would probably mean we lose this game. But I don’t expect either of those things to happen. I think given the return home and this being the 4^th game of the season, we will be pretty sharp. And I think the Kansas game is fresh enough that Paul Johnson won’t let us be flat.

I expect us to score around 35 to 42, and I expect us to hold them to 21 or so. Of course, if the last two games tell us anything, they will probably get most of those 21 in the first half, before Groh really starts adjusting. Provided we do show up to play, of course.

As usual, let’s take a look at the stats and the “talent”, based on the recruiting rankings.

	GT	N.C. St.
Rush Yards Per Game	345	140.3
Rush Yards Per Carry	6.05	3.76
Rush Yards Allowed	154	85.33
Rush Yards Allowed/Carry	4.13	2.67
Pass Yards Per Game	68	263
Pass Yards Per Att.	8.6	7.3
Pass Yards Allowed	160.67	108.67
Pass Yards Allowed/Att.	6.25	8.0
Yards Per Play	6.3	5.5
Yards Per Play Allowed	4.9	5.1
Points Per Game	32	35.3
Points Allowed Per Game	20.7	15.7

Neither team has played a very difficult schedule, but I think ours has been tougher. According to Sagarin, we have played the 75^th hardest schedule, and they have played the 114^th. So you can take a lot of their stats with a grain of salt. I think it is noteworthy that we have a substantially better margin in terms of yards per play and yards per play allowed, and that is against a tougher schedule.

Let’s take a look at the recruiting ratings for the past few years, which is supposed to show talent. But of course, the past two weeks, the team that is substantially less talented according to this analysis has lost. So take it for what its worth.

	2007			2008			2009			2010
	GT	NCS		GT	NCS		GT	NCS		GT	NCS
Best	81	79		80	83		80	79		80	81
Top 5	79.4	78		78	80.6		79.4	78.2		79	79.4
Top 10	78.5	75.4		77.3	79.3		78.8	77.7		78.2	78.5
Avg.	75.65	72.65		76.53	76.58		76.85	75.3		77.06	76.2
Total Players	20	17		15	19		21	27		16	18

These are surprisingly even, but as I said before, the correlation of this junk to who wins the game has not been high so far.

My goals for the game are as follows, and remember, I aim high:

Offense:

400 yards rushing

100 yards passing

At least 42 points.

No more than one turnover.

Defense:

No more than 350 total yards.

No more than 21 points.

Force at least 2 turnovers.

Two things. First of all I have no goal for sacks this week. Wilson is such a good scrambler that I dont necessarily want to sack him. As long as we pressure him so he doesnt have time to settle down, and then we contain him so he doesnt kill us running, we will be fine. Also, forcing turnovers will be tough since Wilson throws so few picks (not a single one on the year so far) but this defense is supposed to force them, and I think its about time we see some.

There you have it. If we show up and play like we can, I think it will be an easy win. That’s not really a knock on N.C. St., they are a good team. They just play a style that is very good for us on both sides of the ball.

Can’t wait to see what happens. As a side note, my quick review won’t be up right after the game like usual, because I will be at this game and won't have access to a computer right after. I know everyone is very depressed at that news.

As always, Let’s Go Jackets!