First, I want to say that UNC is a good football team. I don’t really care how many players they have sitting out. I believe the number now is 12, since they got their running back Draughn cleared to play. But they have recruited well, and they have talent. They really outplayed LSU in the opener, only losing because of special teams. Even though they are missing many of their starters, this should not be an easy win.
The key to the game will be how each team bounces back. UNC is trying to overcome losing a bunch of players. As I just stated, they have good players behind them, but it still hurts to lose many of your starters and your leaders immediately before a season where you are picked to do very well. This was supposed to be the year for UNC, and, in spirit, it was over before it started. They competed valiantly against LSU, but who knows how they will come out after having two weeks to marinate on the disappointing season opener.
Georgia Tech obviously will be trying to come back from a dismal second game at Kansas, a bad team off to a bad start that nevertheless pulled the upset last week at home. This game is far from a must win, but you have to wonder what will happen to GT’s confidence if we lose our first two games against FBS opponents.
The matchups here are pretty clear. After week one, UNC is first in the country in pass yards per game, and last in rush yards per game. GT is second in rush yards per game, and second to last in pass yards per game. UNC has a pretty good run defense. GT to this point has had a pretty good pass defense. We will see how that plays out.
Probably the biggest factor in GT’s favor is Al Groh’s ability to shut down the offenses that Shoop (Offensive Coordinator) has had at UNC. Groh beat UNC 7 times out of 9 while at UVA, including each of the last three years, and has allowed only 12 points per game during that three game stretch.
Conversely, GT has only scored 3 TD’s at Chapel Hill on the last 3 visits. One of those trips we had Paul Johnson, so we cant blame that on our poor offense under Gailey.
The keys for us this game:
Defense: Can we be tougher? We have to tackle better above all else, but we also need to keep fighting on every drive until the end. Last week we quit far too easily after a first down or two, and let Kansas get easy TD’s.
Offense: Can we execute with more consistency? We have to stop throwing away drives with dropped passes, stupid penalties, careless fumbles and silly missed blocks. UNC will have a better defense than Kansas, so this is especially true.
I predict a relatively low scoring game. I am not convinced that UNC’s O line is any better than last year, which I think means that our D line will compete well, and we should have some success slowing their offense down. I also expect their defensive front seven, even missing some players, to make themselves very hard to block and pursue our ballcarriers well. I expect yards and points will be at a premium.
Before I get to my goals and my prediction, lets take a look at the numbers.
| | GT | UNC |
| Rush Yards Per Game | 331.5 | 24 |
| Rush Yards Per Carry | 6.14 | 0.73 |
| Rush Yards Allowed | 159.9 | 162 |
| Rush Yards Allowed/Carry | 3.99 | 4.5 |
| Pass Yards Per Game | 64 | 412 |
| Pass Yards Per Att. | 5.5 | 9 |
| Pass Yards Allowed | 136.5 | 151 |
| Pass Yards Allowed/Att. | 5.0 | 6.9 |
| Yards Per Play | 6.0 | 5.5 |
| Yards Per Play Allowed | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Points Per Game | 33 | 24 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 19 | 30 |
The discrepancies in rush and pass yards per game may be the most ever for an FBS football game. I am in awe of those numbers.
As for talent, let’s look at the last few recruiting classes once again.
| | 2007 | | | 2008 | | | 2009 | | | 2010 | |
| | GT | UNC | | GT | UNC | | GT | UNC | | GT | UNC |
| Best | 81 | 85 | | 80 | 81 | | 80 | 83 | | 80 | 81 |
| Top 5 | 79.4 | 82.8 | | 78 | 79.8 | | 79.4 | 81.6 | | 79 | 79.6 |
| Top 10 | 78.5 | 81 | | 77.3 | 78.9 | | 78.8 | 80.3 | | 78.2 | 78.6 |
| Avg. | 75.65 | 78 | | 76.53 | 77.5 | | 76.85 | 77.4 | | 77.06 | 77.4 |
| Total Players | 20 | 19 | | 15 | 14 | | 21 | 27 | | 16 | 17 |
Well you can see they pretty clearly have better talent than we do, at least according to the rankings. But they had better talent than we did last year and they took a 24-7 L. And we were more talented last week than Kansas, but we lost. I think the key is who comes out more motivated, and the second key will be how our defensive line matches up with their offensive line. If we play well on defense, we have a real shot with Groh against Shoop to hold them to a very low point total.
My goals for the game:
Defense:
At least 3 sacks.
Force at least one turnover.
No more than 350 yards.
No more than 17 points.
Offense:
At least 400 yards.
At least 24 points.
No more than 1 turnover.
Better execution (subjectively judged by me).
I think we get it done. I predict a 7 point GT win as we come out fired up and play with more toughness that last week.
Go Jackets!
No comments:
Post a Comment