Week 6 - Maryland Preview

Maryland is not very good.

Probably not a surprise to anybody reading this. They lost, very badly, to Temple. Now, Temple is better than they have been, but still arent that good, and certainly have not business beating a respectable BCS conference team 38-7.

Yes, Temple defeated Maryland 38-7. Yes, this was a home game for Maryland.

To put that game into perspective, I’ve got a number for you. Phil Steele gives every team a grade for every game they play. This grade is based on who you played, the margin of victory or defeat, and then other selected major stats, like yardage difference.

A grade of 100 or higher is VERY good. Alabama, for example, had the highest score last week for its dominating performance at Florida. They outgained Florida, on the road, by 144 yards, and won by 28 points. For that very impressive performance, their grade was a 111.9. They also have the #1 best average grade for the season, at 103.0.

For reference, Georgia Tech’s average grade for the year is 92.1, good for 10th best in the country. Not bad.

The number I have for you is 42.9. That was Maryland’s grade against Temple. One of the lowest I have ever seen. It is the lowest in the ACC (with the exception of two FCS games. Both BC and NC State were given a grade of 13 for beating Massachusetts and South Alabama by 20+. I don’t really understand that, but whatever).

Duke actually lost to Richmond, and for that game earned a grade of 61.

So, 42 is bad. Real bad. But, what do you expect when you lose, at home, by 31 points to Temple.

In other words, this team is capable of being very, very bad.

For comparison’s sake, here is how the two teams stack up, grade by grade.

GT Opponent	GT Grade	Maryland Opponent	Maryland Grade
Western Carolina	86.9	Miami	88.6
MTSU	97.6	West Virginia	80.3
Kansas	100.9	Temple	42.9
UNC	89.9	Towson	65.7
NC State	85
Average	92.1	Average	69.4

On the year, Maryland’s average ranks #80 nationally. However, without the Temple outlier, their average would be 78.2, which would rank around 47th.

In short, Maryland appears to be a very up and down team. But, their “up” performances allegedly would be comparable to most of our games. Their performance against Miami was comparable to our performances against Western Carolina, MTSU and NC State.

So there is that, whatever that is worth. Hard to get a read on Maryland.

According to Sagarin, we are supposed to beat Maryland by about 12.5.

But that is probably an average, where if “Miami” Maryland shows up, we will be in a game, but if “Temple” Maryland shows up, we should beat them badly.

And that is pretty much what will determine the outcome of this game. I could quote a bunch of statistics, and try to analyze some numbers, and tell you that “look, here is why Tech will be able to win!” But I’d be lying. I have no idea, and neither does anybody else. Maryland has been all over the place this year. Thus, their stats are mostly useless. For example, they average gaining 387 yards a game, but that is with 499 against Miami and only 240 against Temple. Additionally, that was the most yardage Miami gave up all season by a decent margin. And the least that Temple gave up. Temple allowed Akron and Villanova to gain more than 240 yards.

So, like I said, I have absolutely no idea how to distill any useful information from any of the stats.

I will say this - Maryland is a very inconsistent team, but even at their peak, they don’t seem to be that good. Their best game of the season came against a Miami team that was really limited by the suspension of many key players. So, actually, every good thing Maryland did in that game may be a little misleading. And their bad performances are awful.

Further, this will be their first road game of the season.

Lastly, I expect us to play well. According to Paul Johnson’s quotes in the media, we did not practice very well last week, and that probably contributed to some our sluggish play last weekend.

I think we are a good team with a good attitude, and good teams with good attitudes do not give lackluster, flat performances two weeks in a row.

One of the easiest things to do, psychologically, is to practice and play well after a bad game. A poor game leaves a bad taste in your mouth, and you just cant wait to get back out there and play better.

And all indications from the team after the NC State game were that all of our players felt we did not play very well. There were a lot of quotes suggesting that game left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.

So, I expect that we had a much better week of practice this week. I think we will come out with a good effort, and play much sharper.

Maryland does have one player that concerns me. Their QB Danny O’Brien is capable of playing very well if he has a good game. Our pass defense (and overall defense) has been shaky at times this season. So, if we are not ready to play, they could definitely score some points.

However, I would expect our offense to have a very good game.

Overall I will say we come out and play very well, maybe our most complete game of the season. Maryland comes out with its “average” performance (whatever that is) and I think we pick up a comfortable win, and cover the 13.5 point spread fairly easily.

However, this game could range from a close game that we could lose, to a 40 point GT win. One of the most difficult to predict of the season, courtesy of Maryland’s inconsistency.

Oh well. I’ll call it 49-24.

Go Jackets!