Week 7 - UVA Preview

This game terrifies me. For several reasons.

1 - We have been cursed up there.

2 - This is yet another trap scenario.

3 - Some things about this game are a bad matchup for us.

Going in order...

1 - The curse. From 1990 until 2009, we did not win in Charlottesville a single time. Now, I hope 2009 broke that curse. But the point remains, we have sent a handful of teams up to UVA that clearly should have won, and they didn’t. I just do not like this place.

2 - How many trap scenarios can you have in a row? Well, as it turns out, a bunch. I actually did not think last week was much of a potential let down situation. We had just come off a less-than-sharp game in Raleigh. We were back at home. Often, in that situation, a team will come out and play well. I would say that, after two straight sluggish games, we have a good chance to come out playing well here, except for a couple points.

A - We won both of the past two games. There is a saying among some coaches that the worst thing you can do is play poorly and win. It can lead to your team thinking that it doesn’t really matter if they are ready to play. Which can lead to disaster.

B - We are on the road. This does not always make a huge difference in terms of being ready to play, but I do believe its easier to get back into a groove after a bad week on the road, when your next game is at home. Everything is just easier at home. When you play poorly at home, and then have to go on the road, it is just the opposite. Everything is a little tougher. You don’t have a routine. You have to deal with traveling. You have to deal with the opposing crowd. Psychologically, it tends to feel like, if things did not go how you wanted last week, what is going to get better now?

C - Miami is up next. Now, I know, Miami may not be the “big” game it once was. But they are still a name opponent. Our last “big” game was UNC. After that win, we shot up in the rankings to #13, and started getting a lot of respect. Many pundits in the media started looking at our schedule and saying “you know they could be 7-0 before they go to Miami”. Point is, the Miami game has probably been in the players minds for 3 weeks now as the next real test. That probably explains at least part of the sluggishness the past two weeks. But now, the sluggishness could easily peak. We are only 1 week away. Many, if not most, of our team has probably been assuming we would be 7-0 going into the Miami- Clemson-VT stretch. This game may feel like a formality. If that is the case, we could be in serious trouble.

D - They are off a bye week. At the very least, this gives them a situational advantage, as they will be more rested and better prepared. I am not sure if I totally buy into the theory that bye weeks are a big disadvantage for us because of this scheme. (particularly since our 1 win over UGA in the last 10 years came with Paul Johnson’s scheme and UGA off a bye week) But, what we do is unique. So, logically, you would think the extra prep time would help teams against us more than against other teams.

For those reasons, this could be a trap game. I am sure our coaching staff is aware of this, and has been all over the players to try prevent this thinking. But, coaches always do that. Coaches are always well aware of the danger of being flat. And yet, it still happens sometimes. Let’s hope it does not happen to us this week.

Because if it does...

3 - We could well lose. They have some bad matchups for us. Most notably, a pretty good offensive line. And a pretty good defensive line. Their problems are elsewhere. Remember that really good defensive front that we had to face when UNC rolled into Atlanta? Well, UVA played them pretty well also. I mean, they lost the game, but they ran for 170 yards and 5.00 yards per carry. And they did that with a fairly traditional power running attack. In other words, they didn’t use all of our misdirection. They did exactly what UNC was expecting, they ran right at all of UNC’s future NFL draft picks, and they put up pretty good numbers. Given that power run defense has been our biggest weakness on D so far, this fact concerns me.

They also have a pretty good defensive front. We ran circles around them last year, but my understanding is they were young, and also learning a new defensive scheme. All of their players were recruited to Al Groh’s 3-4 (that by now we should all know and love). London I believe runs a more traditional 4-3, and it takes a little while to change to that. When they played us last year, they had one spring and about 6 games. Now they have had two springs, and closer to 20 games. Big difference. They almost certainly will be better.

But, to be fair, we did not play very well last year (most of the time) and yet we had little trouble running circles around UVA. We ran for 477 yards and pretty easily could have scored more than the 33 we did score. We could not get out of our own way in the first half. But we hit a whole bunch of long running plays. The much improved offense this year (at least, when we have executed, it has looked much improved) should be even tougher for UVA to stop than we were last year.

However, UVA is not a real good team, and there has to be a reason for that right? Turns out that yes, there is. Mostly the QB. The defense is not terribly good behind the D-Line (at least that is my understanding, I confess I don’t watch the hoos much) but its not that bad either. Defensively they allow barely 300 yards a game, and only 22 points. They have only allowed 400 yards once, and that was only 401 to UNC. But then again, they have not exactly played murderer’s row either. Eh, whatever, still not a terrible defense.

Offensively they have struggled at times, largely due to poor QB play, which will do the trick most every time. They apparently have a “pass specialist” who isnt all that good at passing, and then a runner who REALLY isnt very good at passing. I am hoping Groh can dial up some stuff to really take advantage of this.

So in short, they have some matchups that can give us problems if we aren’t ready to play, but they are not a complete enough team to seriously challenge us if we play well.

And that pretty much sums up the game right there.

But I’ll throw some numbers at you anyway.

UVA so far has played the 104th toughest schedule (according to Sagarin). So, even worse than us (99th).

Sagarin predicts that we win by 7 (10 on a neutral field) if you use his predictor poll.

Sagarin predicts that we win by 14 (17 on neutral field) if you use his overall poll. (although his site tells you the predictor is more accurate).

Phil Steele picked us to win by 3, despite the fact that his computer predicts a GT win by 10, without really explaining why.

Just for fun, here is what Sagarin’s predictor says we would do against our schedule if we played them again:

Western Carolina - GT win by 40 (actual - win by 42)

MTSU - GT win by 21 (actual - win by 28)

Kansas - GT win by 18 (actual - win by 42)

UNC - GT win by 4 (actual - win by 7)

NC State - GT win by 5 (actual - win by 10)

Maryland - GT win by 8 (actual - win by 5)

So, you can see, it underestimates what we actually did in every case but Maryland. Why is that? I have absolutely no idea. But, there you have it.

My gut (and my eyes looking through my biased gold colored glasses) tells me that if we play as well as we are capable, we can have a relatively easy win here. (I don’t think we have played nearly as well as we are capable the past two weeks).

UVA has looked OK at times this year, but they also have some puzzling results. They needed overtime at home to beat Idaho. They allowed Indiana to come from way behind and take a 4th quarter lead, before UVA came back to win. They lost at home to Southern MIss. The loss to Southern Miss really isn’t terrible. Southern Miss beat Navy by 28 last week. But its not real good either.

Bottom line is that UVA is not very good.

So, once again, I could go through and quote a bunch of stats, but I think they would be misleading here.

They key to this game, by far, is our attitude and focus entering the game. If our players and coaches did a good job preparing, and we play well, we will be fine.

If we succumb to all the trap factors listed above, this will be a dogfight, and honestly I think we might lose. Probably the worst possible scenario to be flat is where you are not particularly good against the power run game, and they are pretty good at it. We need to be fighting, scrapping and clawing to get off blocks and keep them from running right at us. When you show up thinking it will be an easy win, you tend not to do that very well.

Here’s to hoping the Jackets get their focus back this week. Miami poses a HUGE challenge for us next week, but our guys need to understand that is next week. We have more important business at hand.

Let’s go Jackets!